PS5 Speculation |OT12| - Aw hell, Transistor's running this again?

[Smokey_Run]

I still believe the deadline is E3 for the PS5 event, or at least the week E3 is set to take place. Even if E3 is cancelled, I still believe most publishers will have digital presentations ready to go to fill the void of that week. There will be companies that have likely signed deals with Sony that includes things like the first next gen footage being shown running of a PS5 and so on. You can't really do that if Sony hasn't really said anything or it would be very awkward to say the least.

You have to think if they are pivoting to a digital presentation they have to fundamentally change everything. You need to get the various teams to record intros or breakdowns on what they are doing, etc. instead of just having them up on stage. You then have to edit all of that and probably run it by the publishers for a thumbs up before figuring out when to release it.

 

[Brohan]

Why not!

Click to shrink...

That avatar is actually really great lol.

 

[CliveLH]

When Microsoft will unveil Lockhart, do you think they will have to reveal the price ?
That's kind of the SKU's point so it would be weird not to right ?

 

[TheRaidenPT]

When Microsoft will unveil Lockhart, do you think they will have to reveal the price ?
That's kind of the SKU's point so it would be weird not to right ?

Click to shrink...

Yeah most likely If they do it next year right?

 

[formasymphonic]

still seems we have the github is it real or not

Click to shrink...

Not to dig at you specifically, but I think its probably worth saying again that the debate isn't whether or not its "real", so much as how relevant that data will be to what actually ends up shipping in boxes to consumers.

 

[zen1990x]

When Microsoft will unveil Lockhart, do you think they will have to reveal the price ?
That's kind of the SKU's point so it would be weird not to right ?

Click to shrink...

I think they will. This may force sony to come out with their price for the ps5 sooner? and the reveal obviously.

 

[DrDeckard]

Until this situation with the virus is contained we have to accept PS5 might be delayed so revealing it before that point just isn't very likely.

Given the great lineup we have if ever there was an ideal year to delay a console this would be it.

Click to shrink...

The virus wont be contained for weeks to months. Yes there is some good games coming and I'm looking forward to those, but theres nothing stopping Sony from talking about the console and generating excitement. They are silent and it's starting to get a little shit.

 

[groganos]

Not to dig at you specifically, but I think its probably worth saying again that the debate isn't whether or not its "real", so much as how relevant that data will be to what actually ends up shipping in boxes to consumers.

Click to shrink...

Oh not a dig at all my friend, I should have definitely elaborated on the statement and if I could I would change it to something that is more inline with your statement. I'm a little overtired and my posting capabilities have went to hell. Thanks I completely glossed over it when trying to say "we don't know anything official yet so don't declare war over speculation everyone"

 

[Sekiro]

I think that Github was the PS5 that we were getting if it launched in 2019.

 

[Silencerx98]

I still don't understand why it's hard for some to grasp the Github leaks are real but don't represent final hardware

P.S. I'm calling out the people who immediately go "Github was BS!"

 

[El-Pistolero]

Look - Matt said it isn't reliable. This little community went in circles on that stupid little leak for far too long even after it was called out.

If you're still choosing to believe in that leak, good for you, but clear your plate for the crow.

Click to shrink...

Matt said no such thing. He might have meant that there was more to it that what was on those pages, but I do not recall him post anything implying that the doc was not reliable.

 

[modiz]

Matt said no such thing. He might have meant that there was more to it that what was on those pages, but I do not recall him post anything implying that the doc was not reliable.

Click to shrink...

to be more accurate what he said was

I'm glad to see we've moved pass thinking the Github leak was confirmation of anything.

Click to shrink...

which does imply that its inaccurate, or at least outdated.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I think secretly Microsoft is hoping that PS5 will either be more similar to XSX or more expensive than $399. Sony is likely hoping to have the PS5 be around $399 and in order to do that they have to accept being behind XSX but it means they will have the middle ground between XSS and XSX, cheap enough but powerful enough, while there will be people who are absolutely price sensitive and those who prefer more performance, Sony probably has accepted that they will loose those users to the Xbox Ecosystem, but there are users who want the best of both worlds.

If Sony went with a more powerful system, it would significantly drive up cost and will cede the mainstream, low end and casual market to Xbox Series S.

Click to shrink...

This would be more probable if they had the exact same market overall.

They don't.

 

[chris 1515]

Matt said no such thing. He might have meant that there was more to it that what was on those pages, but I do not recall him post anything implying that the doc was not reliable.

Click to shrink...

No he said that there is more than that and it is true we know Oberon had at least three more stepping. Same we don't have anything about the theoretical chip inside the file, there is more than that and this is not even the final step of the story at all.

For example, there is no proof the chip is RDNA1 or RDNA2.

 

[DrKeo]

RE2 essentially caches textures to whatever VRAM limit you set it to. If I'm not mistaken, setting it to High(1GB) already gives you the highest quality textures available in the game. However, you may see more frequent texture streaming as the engine is only given 1GB of dedicated VRAM for textures. You can set it up to a whooping High(8GB), but even the High(3GB) setting I tested had no texture pop in issues whatsoever. I think the engine also internally detects your GPU VRAM and tries not to go over it regardless of your texture settings to prevent stuttering

Click to shrink...

Thanks for that, I was wondering what were those freak VRAM usage numbers.

I see we aren't going to make headway on this so I will just draw your attention to the bolded, explain the core difference between our arguments, and leave it at that:

I'm arguing because GPUs have wide variances in performance, gameplay elements are not run on the GPU.

You're arguing gameplay elements are not run on the GPUso there is no reason to worry about wide variances in performance.

While both are true, my proof is that when exclusives are made, gameplay elements are offloaded to the GPU which happens in a uniform closed system or in the case of the PS3, gpu elements are offloaded to the CPU. In fact, even in this generation we've seen things such as AI and physics offloaded to the GPU. It's not a rarity at all.

if viewing the XSS/XSX through the view of multiplatforwhich are designed with wide variance in mind then no it wouldn't matter as the game wouldn't be designed like that in the first place.

if viewed through the lens of platform exclusives games, then a closed system without performance variance will make better use of its guaranteed resources than a game designed to scale up and down based on performance variances.

How prevalent we will see either of these scenarios is up for debate, maybe only one or two PS5 exclusives take advantage of the higher baseline for gameplay elements, maybe they all do, maybe none of them do, and I guess we won't know until the generation and games release.

Click to shrink...

Yes, I totally get your point, exclusives have a set hardware goal so if they wish, they can go as wild as they want with gameplay related GPGPU, even if they want to spend 90% of their GPU time budget on GPGPU. I agree that it's possible, but we've had exclusives for years now and even if they do use GPGPU, they've been using GPGPU with a very small fraction of the GPU time budget. So considering the CPU is getting a huge bump this gen, I really doubt this will be a problem.

You are right, if they really set the clock at 0.8 or 0.911 Ghz having the rest idle should consume relatively little anyway.

Click to shrink...

But not in a 2Ghz boost mode :)

Re. Claybook, I believe it spent a quarter of its frametime on gpu physics, whether that was the extent of its GPGPU processing I don't know. Switch was 4x slower for them - the challenge was not architectural difference but the performance delta. They addressed it by dropping the framerate in half on Switch and
spending months on optimisation to claw back the other 2x improvement needed.

Click to shrink...

I was going through their GDC 2018 presentation and found the ray tracing budget, but nothing on the gameplay-related GPGPU (liquids simulation and deformation simulation) frame budget. Can you point me at the right direction?

My point about raising Switch ports in this argument is just the above - that kind of effort isn't something that will fit costlessly into a day and date pipeline, which is where we presume Xbox/Lockhart will reside. Now Lockhart isn't quite 'that kind of effort' - but the point is that reaching to Switch examples as an extreme that covers the more moderate situation in general on Lockhart, doesn't convince IMO. Switch level efforts - or even half that - I think it's doubtful they'd be costless integrations into development schedules of the kind of games looked at in those examples, wrt impact on development or even perhaps the scope of the game.

Re. GPU usage trends, I think it's a function of more than relative CPU power - compiler/tools support being another - and as I said earlier, I'd by no means argue that we'd suddenly othewise have an explosion of worldspace GPGPU processing. But what I would say is, whatever about any other factors, Lockhart will weigh against that possibility fairly heavily now, even in the relative minority of cases where it might have happened.

We're left to speculate why, if per Jason Schreier, 'some devs' think Lockhart would hamper them next gen. A change in GPU usage trends is one possibility. Maybe memory is another? I don't know. For those 'converting' folks, I don't think it's a conversation that can have a consensus outcome at this point ;)

Click to shrink...

I totally agree that Switch is an extreme example and that's not going to be a viable workflow for Lockheart. But you will probably also agree that Lockheart isn't Switch, cases like Claybook are insanely rare and the new CPUs will probably make them even rarer. I mean, if a developer really wants to go that route, maybe they will have to go the "Claybook route" and work hard in order to get that game running well on Lockheart. But for the 99% other cases? It should be pretty straightforward and MS can't let two or three games this generation dictate its hardware strategy.

 

[formasymphonic]

Oh not a dig at all my friend, I should have definitely elaborated on the statement and if I could I would change it to something that is more inline with your statement. I'm a little overtired and my posting capabilities have went to hell. Thanks I completely glossed over it when trying to say "we don't know anything official yet so don't declare war over speculation everyone"

Click to shrink...

Yeh - I didn't think you meant that so I didn't want you to think I was trying to call you out, I just feel like the thread needs a reminder of it if we are going to keep getting the debate.

I think that Github was the PS5 that we were getting if it launched in 2019.

Click to shrink...

Tbh, I've always thought it was a mix of that, and Sony needing test bed hw for BC purposes as early as possible.

I don't think their BC solution for PS4 can't be virtualised, and they would need a testbed platform as early as possible to ensure PS4 games would run on the future architecture. A PS5 that couldn't play PS4 games (or would only play a selection of them) would have pretty significant PR implications vs MS' offerings. As for PS5-19 vs PS5-20, I just can't see them changing up their plans for a late 2020 release if they were just going to continue with 2019's 36CU unit... so I personally could never see the sense in believing that the PS5 that ships to consumers in 2020 would end up being 9.2TF.

...tbh though, the circular arguments on the subject bore me (and can't be resolved until we get some actual announcements) so I try not to get involved in the debate.

 

[BradleyLove]

It's beginning to feel like Sony won't budge no matter what Microsoft does. They aren't making any sense at all.

Click to shrink...

It's funny as I see it differently. Look at the hype and thirst for PS5 news... and this is without Sony tossing any bones. Conversely the thirst for XSX news has really died down, especially given how much we know.

I think Sony know exactly what they're doing, and to me it seems like it's working. These threads are testament to that.

 

[Isayas]

I really want Sony to keep going with this silence. It is driving the internet nuts lmao

 

[PJV3]

I really want Sony to keep going with this silence. It is driving the internet nuts lmao

Click to shrink...

Yeah, July would be a good time to reveal everything in one big hit, it's only a few months away.

 

[Vimto]

I really want Sony to keep going with this silence. It is driving the internet nuts lmao

Click to shrink...

Yeh this is a very dry period for gamers.

Nvidia/Asus/Sony are all silent about their flagship products.

At least Doom is releasing in less than 2 weeks <3

 

[Alandring]

The virus wont be contained for weeks to months. Yes there is some good games coming and I'm looking forward to those, but theres nothing stopping Sony from talking about the console and geberating excitement. They are silent and it's starting to get a little shit.

Click to shrink...

They still have two big PlayStation 4 games to sell. I don't think Sony will talk about PlayStation 5 before those games launch.

 

[JamboGT]

I guess the difference between MS and Sony right now is that Sony has FFVII remake, Last of Us 2 and Ghost of Tsushima coming up over the next few months. MS has Ori next week and then not much else till next gen? Just talking about exclusives, obviously there are multiplatform games for both.

Looking at that it is understandable to see the two different approaches.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Yeh this is a very dry period for gamers.

Nvidia/Asus/Sony are all silent about their flagship products.

At least Doom is releasing in less than 2 weeks <3

Click to shrink...

I would like some news but i got so much different games to play that i don't really care as much as i though i would .

 

[Thorrgal]

.

How would this be for a hype moment...

PS5 reveal (PlayStation Meeting, pre-recorded, not live). Cerny presentation, developers talk, controller and console revealed.

11.4 TF.

Demon's Souls Remake. Insomniac new Ratchet & Clank that looks almost as good as a Pixar film

FFVIIR BC enhancements (native 4K, 60fps)

A few clips of Gran Turismo 7 with ray tracing.

Monster Hunter World and Iceborne BC enhancements

and finally, Capcom Presents

D E E P - D O W N - showing incredible flame physics and gameplay that visually far surpasses the 2013 trailer that ran on a 3TF GTX 680.

Click to shrink...

Remove Deep Down and add another third party exclusive, plus a couple first party exclusives like HZD2, Spiderman 2, (maby a new Uncharted by the San Diego studio), aimed at launch window/first year, and I think you're pretty much spot on.

We'll see if we get all that at once or in 2 different reveals, one more technical, witj launch games, and another more focused on games that will come later, paired with the price.

But I think we'll get 11-12TF, faster SSD, and similar RAM. So expecting no surprises there, Games are the main unknown now, and the thing I'm most interested on

 

[Pryme]

Yeh this is a very dry period for gamers.

Nvidia/Asus/Sony are all silent about their flagship products.

At least Doom is releasing in less than 2 weeks <3

Click to shrink...

Ori shows up in less than a week too

 

[groganos]

Yeh - I didn't think you meant that so I didn't want you to think I was trying to call you out, I just feel like the thread needs a reminder of it if we are going to keep getting the debate.

Click to shrink...

No offense taken and I personally would rather have some correct me in a nice matter that helps the thread to move forward in a positive matter.

 

[Pryme]

I guess the difference between MS and Sony right now is that Sony has FFVII remake, Last of Us 2 and Ghost of Tsushima coming up over the next few months. MS has Ori next week and then not much else till next gen? Just talking about exclusives, obviously there are multiplatform games for both.

Looking at that it is understandable to see the two different approaches.

Click to shrink...

Nah. Sony also had TLOU, GT 6, Beyond Two Souls and Kingdom Hearts leading up to the PS4 and still had a February PS meeting.
thanks to the massive splash the logo reveal made on social media, everyone knows the PS5 is coming out later this year.

it's highly unlikely that a surplus of AAA games is what is keeping Sony from showing off the next gen plans

 

[Isayas]

Yeah, July would be a good time to reveal everything in one big hit, it's only a few months away.

Click to shrink...

Yea, I agree with that. Let these three games sell. In July they reveal everything from the specs to the price. I am so down for that.

Yeh this is a very dry period for gamers.

Nvidia/Asus/Sony are all silent about their flagship products.

At least Doom is releasing in less than 2 weeks <3

Click to shrink...

I think for Asus and Nvidia is due to the Corona tbh. Like I have a busy work schedule like most of y'all do. I just like watching the internet's reaction lmao. It is too funny.

 

[Thorrgal]

So then perhaps the number of CUs being the better settling characteristic, like 36-40 CUs is GitHub and anything more is non-GitHub?

Click to shrink...

I think that would be more accurate. Actually 40CUs, with 4 disabled= GitHub, anything else non-GitHub.

 

[saintjules]

Why not!

Click to shrink...

I think you're the first verified user to get one of these. Interesting 🤔

 

[chris 1515]

I think that would be more accurate. Actually 40CUs, with 4 disabled= GitHub, anything else non-GitHub.

Click to shrink...

Exactly there is no proof there are 40 CUs inside github at all.

 

[PJV3]

I think you're the first verified user to get one of these. Interesting 🤔

Click to shrink...

It should be a new feature, Verified but prone to errors.

 

[Bazz Bazz]

I think that would be more accurate. Actually 40CUs, with 4 disabled= GitHub, anything else non-GitHub.

Click to shrink...

I'm just thinking about all possible involved (from Sony/AMD or any studio/dev) who are reading this thread.
They are probably laughing a lot with all this stuff.

 

[anexanhume]

I don't want to give Transistor any ideas, but thank god none of the avatars match the color scheme of Klee so far.

 

[Thorrgal]

We're not allowed to know anything about PS5. My guess is June.

Click to shrink...

With GoT in late June I think it's either late April or July.

 

[Arkham]

Transistor would finally get to activate the moderation super-weapon known only as "Death Blossom".

Click to shrink...

 

[Thorrgal]

I'm just thinking about all possible involved (from Sony/AMD or any studio/dev) who are reading this thread.
They are probably laughing a lot with all this stuff.

Click to shrink...

I mean I feel that's a given :P

I still don't understand why it's hard for some to grasp the Github leaks are real but don't represent final hardware

P.S. I'm calling out the people who immediately go "Github was BS!"

Click to shrink...

People saying "GitHub is Bs" mean GitHub is BS as an accurate representation of the final product.

We all know GitHub was real, but that showed us a glimpse of what they were working on 10 months ago

 

[RoninStrife]

Hope you're right, although I can't imagine what type of hellscape this thread would become right after we'd get that type of official confirmation.

Click to shrink...

Let me say this... developers were concerned about the Jaguar CPUs for a long time before release.. and there were many leaks saying the PS4/Xbox One were "GPUs on a stick..."
So.. I would love why no dev, or even the most credible journalist, Jason heard about this imaginary gulf in power? Jason has 10-15 third and first party contacts and they all say the systems are close. They also say they hate the Lockheart console. So the devs are very opinionated. They say the Lockhart has a Zen CPU, but performance outside of that was a little more powerful than the PS4 Pro.

It's amazing how the Github narrative overshadows what devs really feel about Lockheart in every discussion.

Anyways, because Jason says the Series X and PS5 are close, it's what I believe. And when he said better performance than a 2080 , people laughed and said he doesn't know performance...
but after the RDNA 2 reveal.. looks like those weren't Jason's words, but what a dev told him.

 

[JamboGT]

I think you're the first verified user to get one of these. Interesting 🤔

Click to shrink...

I chose the day because it was my birthay, other than the end of year releases as far as I can tell in the few places I have contacts most devs know very little about actual release and reveal info.

 

[Axel Stone]

Not the greatest birthday present ever.

 

[Ashen one]

Not great not terrible.

 

[score01]

One thing I've been thinking of, if Arden is a hypothetical 56 CU active GPU with 60 CU's in total equating to 350mm^2 die space, a 48 CU active GPU with 52 CU's in total would be around 300mm^2 die space if we scale linearly. Wasn't there a rumour a while back that said XSX was 350mm^2 and PS5 was 300mm^2? Perhaps it was referring only to the GPU?

Click to shrink...

quick napkin math based on estimate GPU sizes from the beyond3d thread:

XSX
- 350mm2
- 56CU
- 1.7Ghz
~ 12.1TF

PS5
- 300mm2 (-15%)
- 48CU (-15%)
- 2Ghz
~ 12.2TF

Lockhart
- 200mm2 (-33% PS5)
- 32CU (-33% PS5)
- 1Ghz
~ 4TF

Click to shrink...

😬

I used to be convinced that there would be a clover design of 18x18x18 CU but it seems the 3 SE would make the chip bigger than the XSX. I think I'm firmly in the 48CU camp now. 2 x SE with 24CU active in each. The BC modes would involve a combination of disabling CU and SE depending on the BC mode - or I wonder if they could do CU only and leave 2 SE active at all times?

 

[anexanhume]

I chose the day because it was my birthay, other than the end of year releases as far as I can tell in the few places I have contacts most devs know very little about actual release and reveal info.

Click to shrink...

It's an interesting contrast because early reports were that Sony was much more forthcoming with development info than MS, which makes it feel all the more deliberate.

It still feels odd because the factors they would seemingly be most concerned about given the current circumstances are price and exact launch date. Neither of those are necessarily expected at first reveal.

 

[Chamon]

I love how you guys are analyzing everything to bits with non conclusive and rumoured info. I don't think there's any other hobby where that happens.

Click to shrink...

Religion?

 

[Lukas Taves]

Let me say this... developers were concerned about the Jaguar CPUs for a long time before release.. and there were many leaks saying the PS4/Xbox One were "GPUs on a stick..."
So.. I would love why no dev, or even the most credible journalist, Jason heard about this imaginary gulf in power? Jason has 10-15 third and first party contacts and they all say the systems are close. They also say they hate the Lockheart console. So the devs are very opinionated. They say the Lockhart has a Zen CPU, but performance outside of that was a little more powerful than the PS4 Pro.

It's amazing how the Github narrative overshadows what devs really feel about Lockheart in every discussion.

Anyways, because Jason says the Series X and PS5 are close, it's what I believe. And when he said better performance than a 2080 , people laughed and said he doesn't know performance...
but after the RDNA 2 reveal.. looks like those weren't Jason's words, but what a dev told him.

Click to shrink...

Developers didn't know Lockhart was a real thing until late last year.

Either Ms presented an early 2 ski approach and then told them it wasn't following through, or they never presented officially to developers and all they had were surveys and leaks.

Só any information devs had around back then we're certainly not from actual experience but rather just reacting to specs. The devkits are out in the open for a few months now. I believe that if the experience was really that bad we would have heard about it, when devs practically confirmed basically the full SX specs once they received that information.

 

[bcatwilly]

It definitely seems like we may be getting some Xbox Series S (Lockhart) information next week based on some of the teasing on these forums and Twitter, which would make sense given that Microsoft intends to have some next generation focused talks planned for GDC livestreamed on March 17th and 18th. They likely want to be able to talk about targeting both the Series S and Series X consoles and how that works for developers. I think that given the entire uncertainty surrounding E3 with coronavirus and such too that it is possible Xbox includes a couple of things in their streamed GDC content that were planned for later also.

 

[Deleted member 61469]

Until this situation with the virus is contained we have to accept PS5 might be delayed so revealing it before that point just isn't very likely.

Given the great lineup we have if ever there was an ideal year to delay a console this would be it.

Click to shrink...

A staggered launch is more likely than a delay imo.

 

[Espio]

Xbox Series X will have a dedicated audio chip, Ninja Theory engineers reveal | VGC

Hardware acceleration could enable 3D…

www.videogameschronicle.com

 

[Brees2Thomas]

Until this situation with the virus is contained we have to accept PS5 might be delayed so revealing it before that point just isn't very likely.

Given the great lineup we have if ever there was an ideal year to delay a console this would be it.

Click to shrink...

I don't think we're in jeopardy of console delays now, as the facilities in China are back up and running and Foxconn locations are expecting full production levels by end of this month. Then, you add AMD saying that everything is "on track" for a holiday 2020 launch.

 

[bcatwilly]

Xbox Series X will have a dedicated audio chip, Ninja Theory engineers reveal | VGC

Hardware acceleration could enable 3D…

www.videogameschronicle.com

Click to shrink...

I can't even imagine what playing Hellblade 2 with headphones is going to be like for anyone that has played Hellblade with headphones from this generation, let the melting of ears commence :)