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PS5 Speculation |OT12| - Aw hell, Transistor's running this again?

How hyped are you?

  • A little hyped

    Votes: 98 15.7%

  • A lot of hyped

    Votes: 50 8.0%

  • WALNUUUUUTSSSSS

    Votes: 222 35.5%

  • Hyped enough to eat this whole bag of walnuts

    Votes: 63 10.1%

  • Hyped enough to bite this moose

    Votes: 37 5.9%

  • Hyped enough to scramble a dozen eggs

    Votes: 39 6.2%

  • Hyped enough to be even more hyped, like, cyclical or something

    Votes: 116 18.6%
  • Total voters
    625
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Kreten

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
User Banned (3 days): platform warring over a series of posts
Seshumaru said:
First paragraph: Not what i said......Also talking about cost. Lucky for Sony that their worst selling console is still a pretty good number ;) So they are going to be alright if the system is a bit over the "normal" price lol :D

Second Paragraph: No one said otherwise! But acting like its telling all the story instead of part of the story is weird as hell. Sure for MS he did and it is valuable information but that doesn't mean that he knows when or why Sony decided to delay PS5 and if they could have changed the system.. He said about 18months or so. Luckily people are saying the decission to delay it happend in 2017.... enough time to redesign if that actually happen :)

Third Paragraph: No i don't think so. Fear is never a good advice partner. You just need to calculate the risk involved with it and not go bath shit crazy :). But all of your assumptions are: Sony does not want to spend money and does not know how to create a system and that they are bound by a 399 system... I think both are going to be 499,99euro.
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You know they were losing money left and right on PS3 forced them to offer free online service and games for paying subscribers, so it had those two things going for it as well as being the cheapest bluray player on the market. I'm pretty sure they'd want to avoid that.

If Sony changed design in 2017 and tested in 2019 per github that doesn't look too good does it?

Sorry if I came across like saying they don't know how to create a system or that they don't want to spend money. I was stating things based on what I think would of been smart decision and common sense on target market. I still think that going RDNA2 is stupid decision for either of em not just Sony, if MS is releasing 2 systems I can see more justification there as they'll be aiming premium price.

Note how Matt also believes that one console system would look different specs wise than a higher end system in two system release strategy. So I must not be completely crazy I guess.

They can both even be €200, still doesn't mean they were working with same BOM in mind and seems like MS was working with like $50 higher bom in mind and all of that $50 could of gone to stupid RDNA2 for marginal gain.
 
Overflow

Overflow

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,156
Wollongong
Seshumaru said:
No.....you are mixing up people... I don't remember the magazine/website that said that... It's in one of the OT

Your new avatar is messing me up!!!

It's going to get much worse...... You never been to hell have you...... Let me tell you all about my adventure into the.......to be continued! remake 2 will come out soon. see you then :P
shinjilaughing.jpg
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Just wanted to chime in and say this is easily my favourite gaming-related reaction image. I don't even care about Final Fantasy 7 but that moment will forever by seared into my mind as the greatest on-stage trolling in this medium. Just look at that face of utter joy while laughing at the contempt of salty fans :') I'm surprised it isn't used more often lol
 
CatAssTrophy

CatAssTrophy

Member
Dec 4, 2017
7,621
Texas
Thanatos said:
You seem to be talking in a lot of absolutes about things that are far from absolute. The BOM article had a few very questionable errors in it that made it not the most accurate thing in the world and Sony is far from "screwed" if their high-end console costs the same as Microsoft. Also, your margins are not realistic, as console makers can take a loss on hardware and you are grossly overinflating chip price increases.

I.e. Nothing you are saying has basis in reality.
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My theory on the "BOM increase" article is:

They are assuming PS5 is going to be $400
They are assuming Sony was aiming for a BOM less than that
They are assuming it would be a close margin like the PS4 and used the PS4 original BOM
They are assuming XSX is going to be $500
They are assuming MS was aiming for a BOM less than that so they can profit day one
They didn't take into account what the kind of features MS talked about would actually cost to put in a console
They don't know enough about PS5 to know what kinds of features and cost would go into what they want to do
They just bumped the PS4 launch BOM up a bit and then just threw out a random guess for XSX

...and then everyone lost their minds when they published it, instantly making it seem like Sony was "known" to be in the red and MS comfortably still profiting day one.

Some of the assumptions are somewhat reasonable based on history, but none of it was based on actual concrete info. It's based on people that pulled up numbers from PS4 days and made some educated guesses, but still ultimately know nothing. It reeks of Pachter's (wrong) predictions. (though yes, he gets plenty of other things right)
 
anexanhume

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
Kreten said:
Reading too much into a statement? "As publicly known both next gen consoles are powered by Radeon and have hardware RT" to you equals RDNA2 architecture confirmation and that it was already public knowledge? LOL

The Journalist said that AMD has not confirmed anything regarding RDNA1 or 2 or using AMD RT, which is exactly what Engineer said, only certain people were looking to connect one segment with the other to come up with "confirmation".

You invoked Klee to show how he confirmed it, but ignored how he also said that RT is different in the two.
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You are cordially invited to re-read my statement. Take your time.
 
Minthara

Minthara

Freelance Market Director
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
7,940
Montreal
CatAssTrophy said:
My theory on the "BOM increase" article is:

They are assuming PS5 is going to be $400
They are assuming Sony was aiming for a BOM less than that
They are assuming it would be a close margin like the PS4 and used the PS4 original BOM
They are assuming XSX is going to be $500
They are assuming MS was aiming for a BOM less than that so they can profit day one
They didn't take into account what the kind of features MS talked about would actually cost to put in a console
They don't know enough about PS5 to know what kinds of features and cost would go into what they want to do
They just bumped the PS4 launch BOM up a bit and then just threw out a random guess for XSX

...and then everyone lost their minds when they published it, instantly making it seem like Sony was "known" to be in the red and MS comfortably still profiting day one.

Some of the assumptions are somewhat reasonable based on history, but none of it was based on actual concrete info. It's based on people that pulled up numbers from PS4 days and made some educated guesses, but still ultimately know nothing. It reeks of Pachter's (wrong) predictions. (though yes, he gets plenty of other things right)
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I have general issues with Takashi Mochizuki's writing style in general, such as when he wrote a headline in 2018 proclaiming that the PlayStation successor was 3 years away because he didn't properly interpret a quote correctly. I think for whatever reason he adds his own spin to quotes that distorts the message enough that I personally question what the person he is quoting originally said and if his interpretation is accurate.

I feel, especially based upon my own experience in the video game industry, that the accuracy of his writing has a few problems.
 
Scottoest

Scottoest

Member
Feb 4, 2020
11,356
Thanatos said:
You seem to be talking in a lot of absolutes about things that are far from absolute. The BOM article had a few very questionable errors in it that made it not the most accurate thing in the world and Sony is far from "screwed" if their high-end console costs the same as Microsoft. Also, your margins are not realistic, as console makers can take a loss on hardware and you are grossly overinflating chip price increases.

I.e. Nothing you are saying has basis in reality.
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Never mind that all of those BOM numbers were just estimates from external industry analysts in the first place - and in the case of the Xbox Series X BOM Estimate, the analyst who made it even prefaced the tweet by saying it could be completely inaccurate. A month later it's getting routinely referenced in places like this as known information, haha.
 
Kyoufu

Kyoufu

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,582
Why did Microsoft go with RDNA 2 when they could have saved money by using RDNA 1 and buying the Ray Tracing Lego blocks separately?
 
CatAssTrophy

CatAssTrophy

Member
Dec 4, 2017
7,621
Texas
Scottoest said:
Never mind that all of those BOM numbers were just estimates from external industry analysts in the first place - and in the case of the Xbox Series X BOM Estimate, the analyst who made it even prefaced the tweet by saying it could be completely inaccurate. A month later it's getting routinely referenced in places like this as known information, haha.
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Yeah and I understand that places like Era aren't a good reflection of what the masses are thinking about the industry, considering their relationship with it is much different from ours, but it does seem to have slightly colored a lot of people's perspective on things, and it's annoying to say the least.

I know it goes without saying, but if Sony would give us *at least* as much info about PS5 as MS has about XSX it would help calm down a lot of the BOM talk because we'd actually have some kind of idea as to what's supposed to go in there besides github numbers on a screen.
 
Kreten

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
Thanatos said:
You seem to be talking in a lot of absolutes about things that are far from absolute. The BOM article had a few very questionable errors in it that made it not the most accurate thing in the world and Sony is far from "screwed" if their high-end console costs the same as Microsoft. Also, your margins are not realistic, as console makers can take a loss on hardware and you are grossly overinflating chip price increases.

I.e. Nothing you are saying has basis in reality.
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Yes article did have holes in it(saying cooling system is $1 or something like that), xbox BOM was from a different place however.
How likely is it that platform with one system would be targeting same BOM as higher system of platform with low and "premium" system? Are you saying they learned nothing from PS3? What about MS low end console? You don't think that they would have to compete with that one too?

Wafer cost hasn't more than doubled since 28nm to 7nm and especially at 7nm+?
 
Kreten

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
Kyoufu said:
Why did Microsoft go with RDNA 2 when they could have saved money by using RDNA 1 and buying the Ray Tracing Lego blocks separately?
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It baffles me too, I still don't believe them that it is 100% RDNA2 LOL. And RDNA2 is supposed to be 7nm+ and that 400mm^2 would be pretty expensive.
 
renx

renx

Member
Jan 3, 2020
330
I'm almost positive PS5 won't be using RDNA ray tracing, mainly because AMD's RT solution is likely to be designed with DXR in mind.
Not saying that it definitely won't be adopted by Sony. But Sony's proprietary API would be in disadvantage, imho.
So I wanna see what Sony brings to the table.
 
Kreten

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
renx said:
I'm almost positive PS5 won't be using RDNA ray tracing, mainly because AMD's RT hardware is likely to be designed with DXR extensions in mind.
Not saying that it definitely won't be adopted by Sony. But Sony's proprietary API would be in disadvantage, imho.
So I wanna see what Sony brings to the table.
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I don't think that anything would be stopping Sony from coming up with their own API solution, look at multithreading that was supposed to be a major thing of DX12, Sony did it their own way and works just as well.

Edit: Also these are semi-custom chips, I'm sure that even RT can be tweaked to accomodate each ones needs.
 
CatAssTrophy

CatAssTrophy

Member
Dec 4, 2017
7,621
Texas
Kreten said:
I don't think that anything would be stopping Sony from coming up with their own API solution, look at multithreading that was supposed to be a major thing of DX12, Sony did it their own way and works just as well.
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Yeah, AMD "code to the metal" and "lets make open standards instead of proprietary ones" philosophies kind of go against the idea of their RT solution being in any way married to DXR. It's true that they designed their hybrid solution with some help from MS, but I think it'll most likely just mean DXR will be super compatible with AMD's solution rather than that solution being in any way reliant on DXR.

You're right though in that Sony's got a knack for making their own proprietary API's when they are forced to and it all somehow working out pretty well. It seems during the PS3 days they really started working on making sure they were putting a lot of effort into making sure their consoles could be easily developed on after the CELL/RSX difficulties they put so many through. The result was PS4.
 
Fargoth's Ring

Fargoth's Ring

Member
Jan 19, 2020
636
Bellingham
Kreten said:
Yeahh sadly was to be expected, however I still think that we will get to see something like maybe streams without crowds or hands on. Companies already invested money into preparing for it so might as well have a person on stage do a presentation to camera without audience.
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I was thinking about this earlier and to me, with all the tactile stuff added to the controller and their work on improving VR, it seems like Sony is really pushing for immersion as one of the big steps they're taking in the upcoming gen. That, coupled with Jim Ryan's comment about doing hundreds of events in the coming year made me think they had originally planned to have people actually demo the PS5 since it's much easier to let people actually experience the immersion instead of just trying to explain it in an article or video. After the coronavirus outbreak however, that becomes a much more difficult task. I'm still foolishly optimistic that we'll get an info drop "soon" though, haha.
 

Deleted member 10747

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,259
Kreten said:
You know they were losing money left and right on PS3 forced them to offer free online service and games for paying subscribers, so it had those two things going for it as well as being the cheapest bluray player on the market. I'm pretty sure they'd want to avoid that.

If Sony changed design in 2017 and tested in 2019 per github that doesn't look too good does it?

Sorry if I came across like saying they don't know how to create a system or that they don't want to spend money. I was stating things based on what I think would of been smart decision and common sense on target market. I still think that going RDNA2 is stupid decision for either of em not just Sony, if MS is releasing 2 systems I can see more justification there as they'll be aiming premium price.

Note how Matt also believes that one console system would look different specs wise than a higher end system in two system release strategy. So I must not be completely crazy I guess.

They can both even be €200, still doesn't mean they were working with same BOM in mind and seems like MS was working with like $50 higher bom in mind and all of that $50 could of gone to stupid RDNA2 for marginal gain.
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Last post for today, maybe,....need to wake up in 4 hours....when am i actually going to learn to go to bed at a normal time... Hahaha

P1: I know and you are changing history a little bit but whatever... Nothing about the PS3 situation is the same as they are going for PS5, at least i hope so! :)... Why are you acting like they are remotely the same.... You think investing in RDNA2 is similar to cell or the blu-ray diode? We all know that the way they build PS3 was perhaps not the smartest way to do it... Hence why Mr.K only has a chair to sit on :)

P2: But what is the target market? Casual? Hardcore? Or a variable market where they first push for the hardcore and then gradually go for the casual with price,software and services? You call it premium price but perhaps it's not a premium price... Its the general price and the cheap model is a cheap model... It really depends how the consumers will see it... A cheaper alternative or a premium alternative. Or perhaps the consumer will see it as the general console because the PS5 is just as cheap/expensive but MS also offers a cheaper system.

P3: I don't really understand what you are trying to say..... Of course a 2 system strategy means different specs but like i said above is it a extra premium system or is it a second cheaper system... And can you link me where Matt said that? I want to know the context about it... I'm sorry but you have been wrong a couple of times about who said what... So i need to see it for myself and see where and what he said :)
Overflow said:
Just wanted to chime in and say this is easily my favourite gaming-related reaction image. I don't even care about Final Fantasy 7 but that moment will forever by seared into my mind as the greatest on-stage trolling in this medium. Just look at that face of utter joy while laughing at the contempt of salty fans :') I'm surprised it isn't used more often lol
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Gotta be honest, i was pissed off.. I'm a normal human being that likes games.. I watch my conferences in silence and don't do stupid shit like shouting or putting my hands in the air......... until that horrible day that was. I put my goddamn arms in the air like i just didn't care ;) That's how happy i was.. and then that MF.....


I can appreciate it now though... And yes you are right it should be used more often :D. I actually really like it now.... lmao
 
gundamkyoukai

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,141
renx said:
I'm almost positive PS5 won't be using RDNA ray tracing, mainly because AMD's RT solution is likely to be designed with DXR in mind.
Not saying that it definitely won't be adopted by Sony. But Sony's proprietary API would be in disadvantage, imho.
So I wanna see what Sony brings to the table.
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Why would Sony API be at a disadvantage ?
It was not with PS4 it won't be with PS5 and not alll devs do things the same way even with the same API.
 
big_z

big_z

Member
Nov 2, 2017
7,797
PS4 BOM was around 380.
PS5 is said to be higher than Sony expected at 450 due to supply chain complications.
So let's say the goal was 420 because Cerny blazes. Ram and storage in these consoles are eating more budget than last gen. We know Sony is putting some of that money into fancier controllers and improved heatsink* as well. We know that Microsoft's BOM is higher than Sonys.

That's enough to make logical guesses on what to expect.

*when it comes to heatsink PS4/pro had some cheap alibaba level crap. Moving closer to something like the 1X has but bigger and maybe a second fan is enough to account for the cost increase. Don't expect magic.



***EDIT: do embedded YouTube videos play in safari on iPhone for anyone? I have to click the video name so it opens the YouTube app now and it's inconvenient.
 
DriftingSpirit

DriftingSpirit

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,904
Scottoest said:
Never mind that all of those BOM numbers were just estimates from external industry analysts in the first place - and in the case of the Xbox Series X BOM Estimate, the analyst who made it even prefaced the tweet by saying it could be completely inaccurate. A month later it's getting routinely referenced in places like this as known information, haha.
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big_z said:
PS4 BOM was around 380.
PS5 is said to be higher than Sony expected at 450 due to supply chain complications.
So let's say the goal was 420 because Cerny blazes. Ram and storage in these consoles are eating more budget than last gen. We know Sony is putting some of that money into fancier controllers and improved heatsink* as well. We know that Microsoft's BOM is higher than Sonys.

That's enough to make logical guesses on what to expect.

*when it comes to heatsink PS4/pro had some cheap alibaba level crap. Moving closer to something like the 1X has but bigger and maybe a second fan is enough to account for the cost increase. Don't expect magic.



***EDIT: do embedded YouTube videos play in safari on iPhone for anyone? I have to click the video name so it opens the YouTube app now and it's inconvenient.
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Like clockwork
 
Garrett 2U

Garrett 2U

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,511
renx said:
I'm almost positive PS5 won't be using RDNA ray tracing, mainly because AMD's RT solution is likely to be designed with DXR in mind.
Not saying that it definitely won't be adopted by Sony. But Sony's proprietary API would be in disadvantage, imho.
So I wanna see what Sony brings to the table.
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This is my take as well.
 
Kreten

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
Seshumaru said:
Last post for today, maybe,....need to wake up in 4 hours....when am i actually going to learn to go to bed at a normal time... Hahaha

P1: I know and you are changing history a little bit but whatever... Nothing about the PS3 situation is the same as they are going for PS5, at least i hope so! :)... Why are you acting like they are remotely the same.... You think investing in RDNA2 is similar to cell or the blu-ray diode? We all know that the way they build PS3 was perhaps not the smartest way to do it... Hence why Mr.K only has a chair to sit on :)

P2: But what is the target market? Casual? Hardcore? Or a variable market where they first push for the hardcore and then gradually go for the casual with price,software and services? You call it premium price but perhaps it's not a premium price... Its the general price and the cheap model is a cheap model... It really depends how the consumers will see it... A cheaper alternative or a premium alternative. Or perhaps the consumer will see it as the general console because the PS5 is just as cheap/expensive but MS also offers a cheaper system.

P3: I don't really understand what you are trying to say..... Of course a 2 system strategy means different specs but like i said above is it a extra premium system or is it a second cheaper system... And can you link me where Matt said that? I want to know the context about it... I'm sorry but you have been wrong a couple of times about who said what... So i need to see it for myself and see where and what he said :)

Gotta be honest, i was pissed off.. I'm a normal human being that likes games.. I watch my conferences in silence and don't do stupid shit like shouting or putting my hands in the air......... until that horrible day that was. I put my goddamn arms in the air like i just didn't care ;) That's how happy i was.. and then that MF.....


I can appreciate it now though... And yes you are right it should be used more often :D. I actually really like it now.... lmao
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Yeahh sleeping stuff I have same exact problem too!

With reference to PS3 was just price wise, not technology. I just think that RDNA2 unnecessarily increases the cost of each console for little gain.

In my opinion target audience is as big as possible lol

We can see from xbox one s and one x what they mean by premium and mass audience consoles, where for premium console they go all out and charge a premium for it because people that is targeting are willing to pay more for such thing.

I'll PM you Matts quote tomorrow as I saw someone quote it in the past couple of days, Klees is nearly impossible for me to find on phone.
 
Kreten

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
Betelgeuse said:
I scanned through Klee's threadmarks in a prior OT and didn't see anything to that effect.

If you have a link to it, it would be nice to see it.
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Is it possible to actually look through his post history? Really hard to find things on phone when every longer post gets automatically shrunken down.
 
BreakAtmo

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
Seshumaru said:
Gotta be honest, i was pissed off.. I'm a normal human being that likes games.. I watch my conferences in silence and don't do stupid shit like shouting or putting my hands in the air......... until that horrible day that was. I put my goddamn arms in the air like i just didn't care ;) That's how happy i was.. and then that MF.....


I can appreciate it now though... And yes you are right it should be used more often :D. I actually really like it now.... lmao
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At the time it was the most disappointing horseshit, but it's funny in retrospect because he knew we were getting the actual remake announcement 6 months later.
 
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