PS5 and Xbox Series speculation launch thread |OT9| - For flops sake!

Thorrgal · Jan 10, 2020

Sooo another insider saying both consoles are really close regarding the TF count, and saying the difference will be on other aspects of the console (SSD for sure, and maybe RAM?)

And then we'll all pretend to be surprised when that ends up being the case!

My prediction of both ~11TF, and the PS5 having double+ the SSD speed and 50/50 HBM2 still stands. $499

Sekiro · Jan 10, 2020

hemo memo said:
What about invites to publishers and preparations, booking the theater etc? Insiders please tell us something.

Think someone posted some OT's back that there was a certain 2 day window in February 2020 at the Playstation theatre that had its schedule completely free.

sleepr · Jan 10, 2020

Sekiro said:
Day 10 of January

No PS Meeting invites have been sent out

I patiently wait...

You'll be getting a wired article and you'll love it. 😂

Sekiro · Jan 10, 2020

sleepr said:
You'll be getting a wired article and you'll love it. 😂

Imagine if they replace E3 this year with a wired article

Or worse, a State of Play...

Patitoloco · Jan 10, 2020

Sekiro said:
If it's happening in February then the invites will get sent out somewhere this month, so i'm patiently waiting for the inevitable news for each day of January.

If it's happening in February (like last time) people will receive invites two weeks before (like last time), which means that if it is on the Wednesday of the week of the 13th of February (like last time), people won't receive invites until the 30th or 31st of January (like last time). So I really don't know why anyone would get nothing on the 10th, it's too early even if it was on February 1st.

Also, I know it's been said, but there are two huge spots missing in February in the venue of the 2013 meeting, so if they do it in the same place, I would bet my ass it's on one of those two weeks:

KOHIPEET · Jan 10, 2020

Sekiro said:
Imagine if they replace E3 this year with a wired article

Or worse, a State of Play...

A wired article.

About a state of play!!

Silencerx98 · Jan 10, 2020

Even though GDDR6 is more likely by a good margin, I still secretly hope for HBM if it means new tech is getting adopted for mainstream use

Sekiro · Jan 10, 2020

Patitoloco said:
If it's happening in February (like last time) people will receive invites two weeks before (like last time), which means that if it is on the Wednesday of the week of the 13th of February (like last time), people won't receive invites until the 30th or 31st of January (like last time). So I really don't know why anyone would get nothing on the 10th, it's too early even if it was on February 1st.

Also, I know it's been said, but there are two huge spots missing in February in the venue of the 2013 meeting, so if they do it in the same place, I would bet my ass it's on one of those two weeks:

I know i know, i'm just crossing off each day like a countdown of sorts, didn't actually expect invites to be sent out this early but then again who knows what Sony's plans are this gen around, everything is near different compared to last time.

And yeah all signs point to that spot being the inevitable day.

KOHIPEET said:
A wired article.

About a state of play!!

You stop that now lol.

M.Bluth · Jan 10, 2020

KeRaSh said:
Exactly. I'd have to check two separate threads instead of one to get all the info.

Yeah, but perhaps the fanboys will fuck off to their favored plastic box and not pollute both.

2Blackcats · Jan 10, 2020

Patitoloco said:
If it's happening in February (like last time) people will receive invites two weeks before (like last time), which means that if it is on the Wednesday of the week of the 13th of February (like last time), people won't receive invites until the 30th or 31st of January (like last time). So I really don't know why anyone would get nothing on the 10th, it's too early even if it was on February 1st.

Also, I know it's been said, but there are two huge spots missing in February in the venue of the 2013 meeting, so if they do it in the same place, I would bet my ass it's on one of those two weeks:

You sound very sure it will be the same as last time. So far, everything communication wise has been different.

I expect a shorter lead time from announcement to reveal this time.

BitsandBytes · Jan 10, 2020

Patitoloco said:
If it's happening in February (like last time) people will receive invites two weeks before (like last time), which means that if it is on the Wednesday of the week of the 13th of February (like last time), people won't receive invites until the 30th or 31st of January (like last time). So I really don't know why anyone would get nothing on the 10th, it's too early even if it was on February 1st.

Also, I know it's been said, but there are two huge spots missing in February in the venue of the 2013 meeting, so if they do it in the same place, I would bet my ass it's on one of those two weeks:

Invites were sent out 20 days/3 weeks before. I think if they do a Wednesday (mid business week) in February again then the options are the 5th, 12th, 19th, 26th so invites 20 days before would mean they go out: January 16th, 23rd, 30th or even February 6th.

Xeontech · Jan 10, 2020

Flutter said:
Sorry, I'll be on the coprocessor train, but I'll be sure to give you a wave when it passes you by

I'm fully on the HBM train with a connecting stop at the coprocessor platform - With a final destination at the 14tf rocketship.

Nothing stops this train

TheUnseenTheUnheard · Jan 10, 2020

Xeontech said:
I'm fully on the HBM train with a connecting stop at the coprocessor platform - With a final destination at the 14tf rocketship.

Nothing stops this train

Except Phil when he slaps you in the face come the reveal lol

Dictator · Jan 10, 2020

Kage Maru said:
Talk about interesting. I always figured the RT capabilities of these consoles would be scaled back compared to what we've been seeing on console for a couple reasons: one, I wouldn't expect AMD to put in a comparable amount of investment into RT as Nvidia has and two, I'm expecting these next gen GPUs to be quite a bit weaker than say a 2080ti, and those performance limitations would trickle over to what's capable with RT. However, I'm getting the impression that you're saying the RT will be even more advanced than what we've been seeing?

Not what I wanted to say. I wanted to say, rhetorically, do not expect it to be better than what we currently have in terms of ray per pixel.

disco_potato said:
Just as NAVI was rushed to market, so was RTX. The jump with ampere will be big. AMD's patent addresses things NVIDIA didn't implement in time and some things that must be addressed in DXR as well.

AMDs patent does not address things NV did not implement, since our knowledge of the HW implementation NV has is surpisingly limited. We cannot say things with such certainty. What can be done or not done with RT core in Turing and what is possible is informed by what the APIs allow. We know you can program custom interesection - just the question is the performance consideration for it. Also RT LODing - I have talked with a dev who work on an RT game about it. They did indeed look into its implementation but found the performance boost not of great significance in the current API.

Silencerx98 · Jan 10, 2020

Dictator said:
Not what I wanted to say. I wanted to say, rhetorically, do not expect it to be better than what we currently have in terms of ray per pixel (which is an enabling figure regarding how good RT can be).

Buddy, one thing I was wondering, would it theoretically be possible to cast say, 1 ray per pixel but render them at 1/8 of native resolution then temporally reconstruct the rays to a higher resolution to reduce artifacting?

Xeontech · Jan 10, 2020

TheUnseenTheUnheard said:
Except Phil when he slaps you in the face come the reveal lol

You mean when he shakes my hand and congratulates me for guessing the exact specs of his hardware?

lol

Webbo · Jan 10, 2020

BitsandBytes said:
Invites were sent out 20 days/3 weeks before. I think if they do a Wednesday (mid business week) in February again then the options are the 5th, 12th, 19th, 26th so invites 20 days before would mean they go out: January 16th, 23rd, 30th or even February 6th.

Not sure if this is correct place to look but the 19th already has something booked so looks like that can be ruled out?

https://www.sonyhall.com/shows/

5th February is looking pretty good there's a few days free together, all the other Wednesdays have something the day before or the day after (if that even matters?).

plow · Jan 10, 2020

So Apparently a Leaker apperade in the old place and "leaked" some juicy Stuff.
Won't link it here but his stuff is backed by Osiris,.

Deleted member 59519 · Jan 10, 2020

2Blackcats said:
You sound very sure it will be the same as last time. So far, everything communication wise has been different.

I expect a shorter lead time from announcement to reveal this time.

September reveal like the PS4 Pro!

Who's getting on that September hype train? Wake me up when September is here!

Dictator · Jan 10, 2020

Silencerx98 said:
Buddy, one thing I was wondering, would it theoretically be possible to cast say, 1 ray per pixel but render them at 1/8 of native resolution then temporally reconstruct the rays to a higher resolution to reduce artifacting?

Sure! That is what temporal components in denoisers can do. Like anything done over time in real time rendering, that causes problems of its own. Ghosting is introduced on movement, the real resolution shows up when things move... so you get a crumbly looking/noisy resolve when the screen moves.

That works - but I would not imagine it to be done for RT effects that take up a lot of screen space or heavily affect the image. If you had RT GI for example and it was very unstable, you could imagine the game visuals being very negatively affected.

As an example: RT reflections in BF5 on Ultra are about 40% rays per pixel... and are pretty stable since and non ghosty since BFV's denoiser is purposefully not accumulating too much over time. It is high feedback. But there are not too many huge reflections on screen all the time with that game's art.

Metro RT GI on High (not ultra) is Half Resolution then checkerboard reconstructed up to full res.

So it works.

Deleted member 18951 · Jan 10, 2020

plow said:
So Apparently a Leaker apperade in the old place and "leaked" some juicy Stuff.
Won't link it here but his stuff is backed by Osiris,.

Can we not mention the old place, Mods have made their feelings known on this already.

anexanhume · Jan 10, 2020

The mystery of Vega's 4800U gains explained

Brees2Thomas · Jan 10, 2020

plow said:
So Apparently a Leaker apperade in the old place and "leaked" some juicy Stuff.
Won't link it here but his stuff is backed by Osiris,.

Yes...very interesting. And I hope he's correct.

CypressFX · Jan 10, 2020

Who is hmqqq? How reliable were his leaks?

Deleted member 59519 · Jan 10, 2020

So it looks like the first two years will be cross-gen for MS.

Possibly includes Hellblade 2 and Everwild.

"As our content comes out over the next year, two years, all of our games, sort of like PC, will play up and down that family of devices," Booty explains. "We want to make sure that if someone invests in Xbox between now and [Series X] that they feel that they made a good investment and that we're committed to them with content."

Source: https://www.mcvuk.com/we-need-to-de...ame-studios-matt-booty-on-the-future-of-xbox/

jobboy · Jan 10, 2020

Thorrgal said:
Sooo another insider saying both consoles are really close regarding the TF count, and saying the difference will be on other aspects of the console (SSD for sure, and maybe RAM?)

And then we'll all pretend to be surprised when that ends up being the case!

My prediction of both ~11TF, and the PS5 having double+ the SSD speed and 50/50 HBM2 still stands. $499

I was offline so far, what insider's leak? Thanks

BitsandBytes · Jan 10, 2020

Webbo said:
Noty sure if this is correct place to look but the 19th already has something booked so looks like that can be ruled out?

https://www.sonyhall.com/shows/

If they are going to use Sony Hall then yes. My pick would be the 12th. At this point it's anyone's guess what Sony will do but surely we will know for sure in the next ~2 weeks by it being announced or nothing happening. Then it's anyone's guess when they will reveal....

Deleted member 11276 · Jan 10, 2020

Dictator said:
Also RT LODing - I have talked with a dev who work on an RT game about it. They did indeed look into its implementation but found the performance boost not of great significance in the current API.

Hm, that reminds me of the upcoming DXR 1.1 update, which includes features devs have been asking for, such as inline raytracing. Could we possibly see some nice raytracing performance increase when games utilize those features?

By the way, DLSS made some great improvements in deliver us to the moon and Wolfenstein. A video on that would be pretty exciting!

III-V · Jan 10, 2020

OsirisBlack said:
You guys are pretty intense, I put in a message to a Mod shortly after I got here waiting on a response. I haven't and won't avoid anything except negativity.

Hope you have a high tolerance for bullshit.

AegonSnake said:
What's your apetite for poems and passive aggressive insults?

Stay thirsty my friends.

anexanhume said:
Are you hate-reading this thread or something?

So much concern

DriftingSpirit said:
SSDs and RT came out of nowhere too. Speculation on those was scoffed at and hand waved. And then, you know. What was "impossible" was suddenly a reality.

PretendToBeShocked.gif And it will continue to happen.

anexanhume said:
The mystery of Vega's 4800U gains explained

All of this is so awesome. We will have some home run consoles.

Silencerx98 · Jan 10, 2020

Dictator said:
Sure! That is what temporal components in denoisers can do. Like anything done over time in real time rendering, that causes problems of its own. Ghosting is introduced on movement, the real resolution shows up when things move... so you get a crumbly looking/noisy resolve when the screen moves.

That works - but I would not imagine it to be done for RT effects that take up a lot of screen space or heavily affect the image. If you had RT GI for example and it was very unstable, you could imagine the game visuals being very negatively affected.

As an example: RT reflections in BF5 on Ultra are about 40% rays per pixel... and are pretty stable since and non ghosty since BFV's denoiser is purposefully not accumulating too much over time. It is high feedback. But there are not too many huge reflections on screen all the time with that game's art.

Metro RT GI on High (not ultra) is Half Resolution then checkerboard reconstructed up to full res.

So it works.

These sound like great optimization solutions to utilize for next gen consoles! Wonder how much more performance could be saved as devs continue finding new and smart ways to cut down on rendering RT with only minimal downgrades to visual quality. Also, I remember reading from the technical slides of The Tomorrow Children that they resolved their cascaded voxel cone tracing method with a delayed update. So instead of updating every frame, the cones would be traced progressively from 2 frames to 4 frames to 8 frames and so on depending on distance. Do you think devs will adopt similar approaches next gen?

Abominuz · Jan 10, 2020

BlacknGoldBlood said:
Yes...very interesting. And I hope he's correct.

It was a troll, dont pay any attention to it. Ignore hat place.

dom · Jan 10, 2020

Tonky said:
So it looks like the first two years will be cross-gen for MS.

Possibly includes Hellblade 2 and Everwild.

Source: https://www.mcvuk.com/we-need-to-de...ame-studios-matt-booty-on-the-future-of-xbox/

That'd be 1 year for cross gen.

Webbo · Jan 10, 2020

BitsandBytes said:
If they are going to use Sony Hall then yes. My pick would be the 12th. At this point it's anyone's guess what Sony will do but surely we will know for sure in the next ~2 weeks by it being announced or nothing happening. Then it's anyone's guess when they will reveal....

Yeah best case scenario we find out in the next 2 weeks or so if its on the 5th and invites go out around the 22nd.

PLASTICA-MAN · Jan 10, 2020

Silencerx98 said:
These sound like great optimization solutions to utilize for next gen consoles! Wonder how much more performance could be saved as devs continue finding new and smart ways to cut down on rendering RT with only minimal downgrades to visual quality. Also, I remember reading from the technical slides of The Tomorrow Children that they resolved their cascaded voxel cone tracing method with a delayed update. So instead of updating every frame, the cones would be traced progressively from 2 frames to 4 frames to 8 frames and so on depending on distance. Do you think devs will adopt similar approaches next gen?

They can adopt such method and improve on it so much and include it in open world games in native 4K at 60 FPS with full next-gen graphics. The enxt-gen harwdare is perfectly capable of that.
That is for devs who want to have max stuff happening and want to show how skilled they are and rely on brute forced methods or simulations.

anexanhume · Jan 10, 2020

III-V said:
All of this is so awesome. We will have some home run consoles.

One thing I'll note is the 4800U has the quartered cache like the consoles may have, based on Flute benchmarks.

Deleted member 50658 · Jan 10, 2020

So while I was banned for a week mentioning "he who should not be named" I thought about why there could be a difference in the speed of the ssd's in these machines if there actually proves to be one.

If Sony is actually using a significantly faster ssd I would not actually be surprised and Xbox stick to a more "regular" one. Xbox have shown that they are becoming as interested in their PC users as the ones playing on Xbox and see then as the same platform basically. Having games developed then for a SSD that is beyond what you would find available (or very expensive high end) for PC seems like a bad idea when demanding even a regular speed ssd is quite a large requirement compared to this gen.

Sony however have shown very little interest in putting their blockbusters on PC and if that continues they would have no real reason to not go down a more custom solution (like the one in the patent) enabling their developers to take advantage out of having a much faster one.

Third parties would probably only the extra speed for loading times but first party could use it in perhaps other creative ways making their games stand out.

I still believe it's 50/50 if there are any difference at all basically between them but if there is I see this as a possible reason.

BreakAtmo · Jan 10, 2020

Thorrgal said:
Sooo another insider saying both consoles are really close regarding the TF count, and saying the difference will be on other aspects of the console (SSD for sure, and maybe RAM?)

And then we'll all pretend to be surprised when that ends up being the case!

My prediction of both ~11TF, and the PS5 having double+ the SSD speed and 50/50 HBM2 still stands. $499

[OT11]: The Truth Was Klee-er From The Start

anexanhume said:
The mystery of Vega's 4800U gains explained

I was wondering something, and I understand if it's too early to speculate. Generally speaking, if we were to get a handheld Windows device like the Alienware UFO with a 4800U at base clocks/TDP paired with, say, 8GB of good LPDDR4 and an SSD, would that be capable of playing PC ports of current-gen at roughly the same level as their PS4 versions (or, maybe, 720/800p60 rather than 1080p30)?

Dictator · Jan 10, 2020

Silencerx98 said:
These sound like great optimization solutions to utilize for next gen consoles! Wonder how much more performance could be saved as devs continue finding new and smart ways to cut down on rendering RT with only minimal downgrades to visual quality. Also, I remember reading from the technical slides of The Tomorrow Children that they resolved their cascaded voxel cone tracing method with a delayed update. So instead of updating every frame, the cones would be traced progressively from 2 frames to 4 frames to 8 frames and so on depending on distance. Do you think devs will adopt similar approaches next gen?

I would say I would not expect that too much unless the game has a very "special" type of design - I think that was possible due to voxels allowing pre filtered stored results from the trace. Triangle ray tracing is more accurate and dynamic at the cost of volatility.

If you think about it, if you had such a scheme its viability visually places limits on the game. If large features only had their RT upate in a staggered rate, then the game could not traverse the camera rapidly or accross distances quickly without the visuals lagging behind visually. Think UE3 or Rage style texture update... but for materials and lighting. That would be rather ugly.

PLASTICA-MAN said:
They can adopt such method and improve on it so much and include it in open world games in native 4K at 60 FPS with full next-gen graphics. The enxt-gen harwdare is perfectly capable of that.
That is for devs who want to have max stuff happening and want to show how skileld they are and rely on brute forced methods or simulations.

4K 60 native resolution with RT effects that are full screen?
I would not expect that at all.

A console is not magic. And I would not describe RT implementations on PC as "brute force" or anything. THe fact that they are 1 ray per pixel or even less on average and use a lot of denoising and culling to work at all shows that they are not "brute force".

Brute force is something like SSAA.

Silencerx98 · Jan 10, 2020

PLASTICA-MAN said:
They can adopt such method and improve on it so much and include it in open world games in native 4K at 60 FPS with full next-gen graphics. The enxt-gen harwdare is perfectly capable of that.
That is for devs who want to have max stuff happening and want to show how skilled they are and rely on brute forced methods or simulations.

Hey, man, I like tech talks with you, but let me just say, dial down your enthusiasm, LOL. I don't doubt we'll see some amazing looking games at 4K/60 but keep in mind that it's an 8x jump in processing power from 1080/30 in the typical current gen open world game. Even assuming both consoles are above 12 RDNA TFlops and the architectural efficiency over GCN, we get roughly a 11.5x leap over base XB1 which is the common denominator for multiplatform games. Certainly you understand how much power has already been used up for resolution and frame rate increases there alone.

I think open world games will still largely stick to 30FPS, especially if world simulation gets a monumental improvement over current gen. I can however see linear games with narrow pathways like Capcom's titles on the RE Engine continue to target 60FPS and look a whole generation ahead than even RE2.

Dictator said:
I would say I would not expect that too much unless the game has a very "special" type of design - I think that was possible due to voxels allowing pre filtered stored results from the trace. Triangle ray tracing is more accurate and dynamic at the cost of volatility.

If you think about it, if you had such a scheme its viability visually places limits on the game. If large features only had their RT upate in a staggered rate, then the game could not traverse the camera rapidly or accross distances quickly without the visuals lagging behind visually. Think UE3 or Rage style texture update... but for materials and lighting. That would be rather ugly.

Ah, ha, you got a good point here. I forgot to consider The Tomorrow Children's non conventional rendering method of using voxels may help its real time GI solution. What if, let's say, rays are only cast in a 30 metres radius around the player before being culled for dynamic GI while anything further relies on pre-computed GI. Would that work?

Dust · Jan 10, 2020

You will get Jimbo doing another Wired article and you will like it.
"Mark told me that PS5 is 12 FLIPFLOPS or something"

Anyway, I think people shouldn't trust anyone unless they aren't 100% verified to at least having possibility of knowing stuff (Jason is an active journalist, Klee was one for 20+ years, etc.)
Random someone on a forum can claim any insanity they want, don't believe it just you like what you are reading.

BreakAtmo · Jan 10, 2020

I'm still just really appreciative at the whole idea of optimised ray-tracing. I've heard about RT for a very long time, but I always thought it was like lighting's supersampling equivalent - a technique that was by definition all about getting top quality with sheer brute force. It's exciting, the thought of experiencing it in games soon (I haven't upgraded my computer in years.

Papacheeks · Jan 10, 2020

Webbo said:
Yeah best case scenario we find out in the next 2 weeks or so if its on the 5th and invites go out around the 22nd.

Believe it's going to be later in the month like Feb.20.

FF Seraphim · Jan 10, 2020

Just read it. big news if true. Black seems to somewhat back him up. Interesting.

plow said:
So Apparently a Leaker apperade in the old place and "leaked" some juicy Stuff.
Won't link it here but his stuff is backed by Osiris,.

KeRaSh · Jan 10, 2020

Sekiro said:
Think someone posted some OT's back that there was a certain 2 day window in February 2020 at the Playstation theatre that had its schedule completely free.

I love that kind of sleuthing.
Nobody gets hurt or might lose their job and it's probably completely useless.
Useless but fun to speculate on!
Someone should make fake requests for the free days and see which of them have to stay free (for Sony).

M.Bluth said:
Yeah, but perhaps the fanboys will fuck off to their favored plastic box and not pollute both.

That could certainly happen. There's also a very high chance that cross pollution might take place and we end up with two shit shows of threads that may or may not get locked...

2Blackcats · Jan 10, 2020

FF Seraphim said:
Just read it. big news if true. Black seems to somewhat back him up. Interesting.

It's down for me so must be true. Ha

QuiteSomething · Jan 10, 2020

FF Seraphim said:
Just read it. big news if true. Black seems to somewhat back him up. Interesting.

Looks like it just a prank or whatever.
Sounds just like a fanboy wet dream with Sony being more powerful in every way imaginable

KeRaSh · Jan 10, 2020

plow said:
So Apparently a Leaker apperade in the old place and "leaked" some juicy Stuff.
Won't link it here but his stuff is backed by Osiris,.

God damnit, I literally had to sit there and think really hard about how that place was called because I haven't checked that website in so long...

DavidDesu · Jan 10, 2020

MrKlaw said:
Considering the increase in coats to produce smaller nodes, and the slowing of node shrinks - is there a general consensus in this thread for the following
1) there won't be mid-gen 'pro/x' consoles. The increase in performance won't be noticeable enough, and it reduces the potential for ps6/Xbox series y to have a good jump over current consoles

2) ps5/xsx will be expensive for a long time. PS4 is still officially $299. If they launch eg $600 at $500 they need to cost reduce to break even at least, before making any kind of profit on hardware. I could see them trying to get a $499 launch to $399 after a couple of years but pushing down to $299 may be challenging

I know nothing but that sounds all very likely. These machines seem like they will be pretty cutting edge for a while and have enough going for them that I don't really see mid gen refreshes happening again. We don't have the same jump to 4K happening again which was the main driver for the Pro and One X models. These consoles will be supporting 4K off the bat and 8K is not happening, realistically, possibly ever (or 10+ years, it's just not needed).

sncvsrtoip · Jan 10, 2020

Dictator said:
I would say I would not expect that too much unless the game has a very "special" type of design - I think that was possible due to voxels allowing pre filtered stored results from the trace. Triangle ray tracing is more accurate and dynamic at the cost of volatility.

If you think about it, if you had such a scheme its viability visually places limits on the game. If large features only had their RT upate in a staggered rate, then the game could not traverse the camera rapidly or accross distances quickly without the visuals lagging behind visually. Think UE3 or Rage style texture update... but for materials and lighting. That would be rather ugly.

4K 60 native resolution with RT effects that are full screen?
I would not expect that at all.

A console is not magic. And I would not describe RT implementations on PC as "brute force" or anything. THe fact that they are 1 ray per pixel or even less on average and use a lot of denoising and culling to work at all shows that they are not "brute force".

Brute force is something like SSAA.

As always back to earth from DF ;d

VX1 · Jan 10, 2020

anexanhume said:
The mystery of Vega's 4800U gains explained

Nice!

PS5 and Xbox Series speculation launch thread |OT9| - For flops sake!

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