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PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

  • H2 2019

    Votes: 638 14.1%

  • H1 2020

    Votes: 724 16.0%

  • H2 2020

    Votes: 2,813 62.2%

  • H1 2021

    Votes: 141 3.1%

  • H2 2021

    Votes: 208 4.6%
  • Total voters
    4,524
  • Poll closed .
Reader mode
Troublematic

Troublematic

Banned
Nov 1, 2017
441
I'll sink with the Team 2019 Titanic with violins playing! o7

If Sony doesn't have an event by GDC it's pretty much a given there's no launch in 2019, but there's still a good chance they'll announce this year if it's a spring 2020 launch. I think even MS could announce next year even if they're launching later. For me a 2019 launch was always of optimism about the speed of progress in technology. AMD will have their 7 nm Ryzen products and Navi out next year, so maybe they could've pulled it off in time for consoles as well. I'm not personally concerned about pricing issues since I'm primarily a PC gamer, I just want next gen games sooner rather than later, and the current console base line is imo really limiting game designs on the CPU side. I also want another FROM title with a generational leap in tech like BB was.
 
chris 1515

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
anexanhume said:
Good overview. And the running debate is that it doesn't help games so it shouldn't matter vs. it doesn't help games because developers don't optimize to it.

Intel gets tainted because they tend to clock down the whole core under heavy AVX loads, but AMD tends to dual cycle half-width units, so it's less space and less heat to deal with.
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Om twitter some developers like AVX 512, like the Claybook developer Sebastian Aaltonnen.
 
MrKlaw

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,061
TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
A limited cycling library of movies and TV shows is one thing, a console limited to a similar service for gaming is another entirely.

I don't think you'll find a meaningful number of gaming consumers who would be willing to spend a chunk of change on a box that is limited to being able to play only a small fraction of games available on the wider Xbox platform. That's why the idea of a streaming box seems premature to me.

It can't provide an equivalent offering to the main console in terms of the game library, and what games it does offer, hold less value to consumers due the plethora of hard restrictions that "streaming only" access implies.



Don't beat the dead horse, fam. Team2019 has long since conceded defeat at this point.
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A streaming box for purchased digital games would mainly be a secondary/tertiary choice for a user that already has a local box. So it would be a cost effective choice for a second room in the house. Likewise the software streaming option for eg PC/ios/android would be a good way to keep on top of your games on the go. All of that increases engagement and stickiness and keeps you renewing your Gold sub.

The same streaming box may not be interesting for less engaged players that aren't looking to buy $60 games, but thats where gamepass comes in. And once they're subbed to gamepass perhaps they will buy that occasional $60 copy of Battlefield or FIFA to play with their friends.
 
Kyoufu

Kyoufu

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,582
modiz

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,844
BreakAtmo said:
http://www.pushsquare.com/news/2018/12/shawn_layden_on_sonys_silence_see_you_in_the_new_year

There's that, plus there was also something he said on a podcast about how he was excited to discuss the future of PlayStation or something like that next year. I can't remember the exact quote, though.
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Isnt saying you are excited to discuss the future of playstation contradicts "His hints for next year don't have to have anything to do with PS5"? It really reads like everyone hears what they want to hear, so i still need a link to this.

Kyoufu said:
Some people are reading too much into small, random comments from Shawn. I guess they're desperate.
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I think saying people are desperate isnt helping the discussion here at all and only causes this to turn to arguments in bad faith, and i say that as someone who isnt team 2019 anymore so i am not trying to defend 2019 or something. Anyway, i think ignoring shawns comments like that is wrong as well, because after sony confirmed no e3, i watched a video which i think was easy allies discussing it, amd it was pointed out to them shawn has hinted at it all the way back at psx 2017 where he said e3 is becoming problematic. So i think that automatically disregarding everything he says isnt the smartest decision.

Super Barrier said:
Lol I can imagine you praying every night AMD will supply a shoddy card for the next Xbox.
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Why shoddy? MS do not need this and they shown they care about raw performance than extra features. Sony needs it more for the ps3 emulation. Its a question of whether MS decides it is a worthwhile compromise to the processing speed.
 
chris 1515

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
modiz said:
Isnt saying you are excited to discuss the future of playstation contradicts "His hints for next year don't have to have anything to do with PS5"? It really reads like everyone hears what they want to hear, so i still need a link to this.


I think saying people are desperate isnt helping the discussion here at all and only causes this to turn to arguments in bad faith, and i say that as someone who isnt team 2019 anymore so i am not trying to defend 2019 or something. Anyway, i think ignoring shawns comments like that is wrong as well, because after sony confirmed no e3, i watched a video which i think was easy allies discussing it, amd it was pointed out to them shawn has hinted at it all the way back at psx 2017 where he said e3 is becoming problematic. So i think that automatically disregarding everything he says isnt the smartest decision.


Why shoddy? MS do not need this and they shown they care about raw performance than extra features. Sony needs it more for the ps3 emulation. Its a question of whether MS decides it is a worthwhile compromise to the processing speed.
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AVX 512 is useful for game I will try to find it but I saw twitter discussion between dev saying it is interesting.

https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/amd-ryzen-cpu-architecture-for-2017.56187/page-39

from a game developer Claybook first full raytracing game and ex ubisoft lead rendering:

AVX-512 is awesome. 16 wide (32b) float/int vectors. Scatter + gather. Execution masks. AVX-512 BW adds 8bit / 16bit operations (32 wide, 64 wide). Very useful for example for string processing. AVX-512 CDI has lots of nice instructions that help in many algorithms and make autovectorization easier.

AVX-512 is perfect fit for SPMD-style languages (ISPC). AVX had only full width float ops, AVX2 added full width integer ops (needed for address calculation, etc) and gather, but still lacked scatter and execution masks. AVX-512 adds both and widens everything by 2x.

AVX-512 is also much better for autovectorization. Also full width integers, gather, scatter allow each loop iteration to read/write data from independent locations (not limited linear loops with no pointers / indirections). AVX-512 CDI and execution masks further help to solve autovectorization problems. AVX-512 is the first time it would be actually possible to autovectorize generic loops. AVX/AVX2 was only good for trivial cases.
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And I read a tweet of other developer giving praise to AVX 512
 
modiz

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,844
chris 1515 said:
AVX 512 is useful for game I will try to find it but I saw twitter discussion between dev saying it is interesting.

https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/amd-ryzen-cpu-architecture-for-2017.56187/page-39

from a game developer Claybook first full raytracing game and ex ubisoft lead rendering:



And I read a tweet of other developer giving praise to AVX 512
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Sure i agree i think it is a great addition to zen2, i was just saying that it is possible MS decides the performance savings without it are big enough to just get rid of it, and that it has nothing to do with AMD giving a shoddy chip or something.
 
DriftingSpirit

DriftingSpirit

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,904
I just find it will be quite unlikely for there to be tumbleweed rolling all the way up to this point in December, and then suddenly at the beginning of 2019, "WOAH! NEW CONSOLE INFO! LEAKS! EVENTS! CONSOLE WARS!!!". We would have already got murmurs if this stuff was just 2-3 months away. After March (more like Jan but yeah), that will be the nail in the coffin for 2019.
 
BreakAtmo

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
modiz said:
Isnt saying you are excited to discuss the future of playstation contradicts "His hints for next year don't have to have anything to do with PS5"? It really reads like everyone hears what they want to hear, so i still need a link to this.
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Finally found it.

http://www.pushsquare.com/news/2018/10/sony_looking_to_crank_up_communication_with_fans

I wasn't remembering the quote quite right. It was actually "We're going to crank that communication up, we're going to find more ways to get our message out and get a view into what our activities are and what our hopes and dreams are, if you will, for PlayStation and for Worldwide Studios". So I was misreading the future of PlayStation thing, though it does still seem interesting.
 
OnPorpoise

OnPorpoise

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
1,300
In a thread filled with speculation, Bits and Xeon going full on Thelma and Louise with #Team2019 feels like the one thing we all saw coming.
 
TheThreadsThatBindUs

TheThreadsThatBindUs

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
gremlinz1982 said:
I do not think that Microsoft has an interest in selling a hardware that will only play a section of games that are on offer. The streaming option is a cheap way for people to get into gaming. You will still have the option to stream games, the option to subscribe to services, and the option to go on and buy games.

All they want to do is give people an option, and this is not something that will only be targeted to casual gamers, there are a lot of gamers out there that will now have a choice to subscribe to their service using the hardware they currently own or a cheaper option....both low cost options that have not been around. If you want to purchase games, that option will be there. It is all about options and them being able to sell their service to as many people as possible.
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MrKlaw said:
A streaming box for purchased digital games would mainly be a secondary/tertiary choice for a user that already has a local box. So it would be a cost effective choice for a second room in the house. Likewise the software streaming option for eg PC/ios/android would be a good way to keep on top of your games on the go. All of that increases engagement and stickiness and keeps you renewing your Gold sub.

The same streaming box may not be interesting for less engaged players that aren't looking to buy $60 games, but thats where gamepass comes in. And once they're subbed to gamepass perhaps they will buy that occasional $60 copy of Battlefield or FIFA to play with their friends.
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Your posts aren't saying anything I haven't already acknowledged and yet fail to address the real elephant in the room.... namely, how does MS address the problem of game licensing with their xCloud service, to ensure that ALL the games available for XB4 will be playable on the streaming box?

PSNow is a great example of the issues i'm referring to. Based on your assumptions, Sony should have been able to offer every game on PSN also on PSNow... clearly that hasn't happened.

And again, when PSNow allowed for game d/loading, every game should have been available.... but it clearly isn't.

Equally, when PSNow started offering a monthly subscription, like Game Pass offers now, they should have been able to list every PS4 game... yet they don't.

The point is, games licensed for distribution on PSN and XBL aren't licensed for distribution via streaming nor inclusion in the subscription service library (i.e. GP and PSNow). New licenses are required and these need to be "negotiated" with publishers.

So both MS and Sony are at the whims of fickle pubs. And if Sony who leads the global market with a greater than 2 to 1 market share, can't get pubs to put all their games up on PSNow for streaming and the subscription option, what makes anyone think MS will fair any better with Game Pass and xCloud?...

In which case, if a streaming box doesn't offer the full library of XB4 games as the local console, either on Game Pass or to buy on xCloud, then why would a consumer want to buy it? A cheaper box that locks you out of more than half the available games, doesn't present nearly a good enough value proposition to justify itself.

It's essentially the PSPGo's biggest problem repeated.
 

Deleted member 5764

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,574
Xeontech said:
We will never falter. To the bitter end. Give me 2019 or give me death.

At this point tbh, 2019 needs to happen just do we can watch the glorious fallout and number of crows being eaten lol
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I've given up on the 2019 dream, but I agree that I'd still love to see it happen. I'd get a new Playstation earlier, and the crow would be plentiful.
 
MrKlaw

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,061
TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
Your posts aren't saying anything I haven't already acknowledged and yet fail to address the real elephant in the room.... namely, how does MS address the problem of game licensing with their xCloud service, to ensure that ALL the games available for XB4 will be playable on the streaming box?

PSNow is a great example of the issues i'm referring to. Based on your assumptions, Sony should have been able to offer every game on PSN also on PSNow... clearly that hasn't happened.

.
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Huh? I think we're talking about two different things. PS Now is a Game pass type service so the catalog is limited.

I was talking about the streaming box offering access to game pass, but also bought games (like onlive).

For game pass, the same restrictions will apply as they do now - negotiations with MS/publishers to get games on the service, available to the end user for a flat fee. No change from current situation.

For purchased digital games, I think MS should be able to update the XB2 licensing agreement such that there is a requirement that games published on their platform are also available to stream via xCloud. I don't think that would be particuarly controversial for publishers - consumers will still have to buy the game, they're just able to access it via more platforms. MS will push that as an increase in addressable market and a potential increase in revenue for publishers.
 
gremlinz1982

gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
5,331
TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
Your posts aren't saying anything I haven't already acknowledged and yet fail to address the real elephant in the room.... namely, how does MS address the problem of game licensing with their xCloud service, to ensure that ALL the games available for XB4 will be playable on the streaming box?

PSNow is a great example of the issues i'm referring to. Based on your assumptions, Sony should have been able to offer every game on PSN also on PSNow... clearly that hasn't happened.

And again, when PSNow allowed for game d/loading, every game should have been available.... but it clearly isn't.

Equally, when PSNow started offering a monthly subscription, like Game Pass offers now, they should have been able to list every PS4 game... yet they don't.

The point is, games licensed for distribution on PSN and XBL aren't licensed for distribution via streaming nor inclusion in the subscription service library (i.e. GP and PSNow). New licenses are required and these need to be "negotiated" with publishers.

So both MS and Sony are at the whims of fickle pubs. And if Sony who leads the global market with a greater than 2 to 1 market share, can't get pubs to put all their games up on PSNow for streaming and the subscription option, what makes anyone think MS will fair any better with Game Pass and xCloud?...

In which case, if a streaming box doesn't offer the full library of XB4 games as the local console, either on Game Pass or to buy on xCloud, then why would a consumer want to buy it? A cheaper box that locks you out of more than half the available games, doesn't present nearly a good enough value proposition to justify itself.

It's essentially the PSPGo's biggest problem repeated.
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You get Game Pass for Microsoft games if what you want to do is subscribe to the service, and you have the option to buy games if that is what you want.

You buy third party titles not on game pass before you have the option of streaming.

Publishers care about one thing and one thing alone, that there is someone that they can sell a product to. We are at a position where people are more accepting of digital downloads and game streaming is doing well on something like Nvidia's streaming platform.

Microsoft would not be taking a payment from you to stream games that are not on game pass, at least that is not how I see it.
 
TheThreadsThatBindUs

TheThreadsThatBindUs

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
MrKlaw said:
Huh? I think we're talking about two different things. PS Now is a Game pass type service so the catalog is limited.

I was talking about the streaming box offering access to game pass, but also bought games (like onlive).

For game pass, the same restrictions will apply as they do now - negotiations with MS/publishers to get games on the service, available to the end user for a flat fee. No change from current situation.

For purchased digital games, I think MS should be able to update the XB2 licensing agreement such that there is a requirement that games published on their platform are also available to stream via xCloud. I don't think that would be particuarly controversial for publishers - consumers will still have to buy the game, they're just able to access it via more platforms. MS will push that as an increase in addressable market and a potential increase in revenue for publishers.
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We're talking about the same thing (now at least), however, your final paragraph is where I question as being a safe assumption.

MS would be at the whims of publishers for this, and some publishers would, for reasons known only to them, not necessarily want to make their games available for streaming.

The example I propose as a precedent for this is of course PSNow, which is more than just a Game Pass like service, as it initially and currently still does offer the ability to purchase games for streaming on the service.

Prior to offering the subscription option on PSNow, it was wholly dedicated to offering full price game purchases. But the library was still very thin and the consumer uptake was poor.

So if Sony, the market leader, couldn't get pubs to agree to list all their games released on PSN also on PSNow, why would we imagine MS would be able to do it?

I think the idea of trying to hold publishers hostage by requiring a single license for physical, DD and streaming options is unrealistic. Platform holders don't have the kind of leverage required to demand such and given that Xbox Store, Game Pass and xCloud are three separate services, the requirement for three distinct licenses seems obvious, at least to me.
 
SeanMN

SeanMN

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,187
TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
We're talking about the same thing (now at least), however, your final paragraph is where I question as being a safe assumption.

MS would be at the whims of publishers for this, and some publishers would, for reasons known only to them, not necessarily want to make their games available for streaming.

The example I propose as a precedent for this is of course PSNow, which is more than just a Game Pass like service, as it initially and currently still does offer the ability to purchase games for streaming on the service.

Prior to offering the subscription option on PSNow, it was wholly dedicated to offering full price game purchases. But the library was still very thin and the consumer uptake was poor.

So if Sony, the market leader, couldn't get pubs to agree to list all their games released on PSN also on PSNow, why would we imagine MS would be able to do it?

I think the idea of trying to hold publishers hostage by requiring a single license for physical, DD and streaming options is unrealistic. Platform holders don't have the kind of leverage required to demand such and given that Xbox Store, Game Pass and xCloud are three separate services, the requirement for three distinct licenses seems obvious, at least to me.
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I suggest rather than looking as PS Now as your reference point, instead look at Geforce Now. I don't think PS Now recognizes when you own a game digitally (on PSN), does it? I think MS's service will more closely emulate what's being done there, as well as having a Gamepass component.

On Geforce now, there is a support list of games (over 400), which means it requires some for of developers opting in. But the list is fairly large. If you own one of the supported games on Steam, Uplay or Battle.net, you can stream it with Geforce now - there's seems to be quite a few publishers supporting this, including: Bethesda, Square, Ubisoft, Valve, WB, Take Two, and Activision, Capcom, etc. With the big omission being EA.

I think that MS has leverage, at minimum, equal to nvidia (in the arena of cloud streaming and content negotiations) and will be able to have successfully negotiations with devs and pubs.
 
gremlinz1982

gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
5,331
SeanMN said:
I suggest rather than looking as PS Now as your reference point, instead look at Geforce Now. I don't think PS Now recognizes when you own a game digitally (on PSN), does it? I think MS's service will more closely emulate what's being done there, as well as having a Gamepass component.

On Geforce now, there is a support list of games (over 400), which means it requires some for of developers opting in. But the list is fairly large. If you own one of the supported games on Steam, Uplay or Battle.net, you can stream it with Geforce now - there's seems to be quite a few publishers supporting this, including: Bethesda, Square, Ubisoft, Valve, WB, Take Two, and Activision, Capcom, etc. With the big omission being EA.

I think that MS has leverage, at minimum, equal to nvidia (in the arena of cloud streaming and content negotiations) and will be able to have successfully negotiations with devs and pubs.
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That was the point I was trying to make. Buy a digital copy of the game an have the ability to stream it if it is not on game pass.
 
gofreak

gofreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,736
A recent little patent from Sony for improvements to the analog stick - independent pressure sensors on the stem of the stick and/or around the rim to detect pressure differences applied to the stick independent from the the stick's displacement. So, among other things for example, when you push the stick to its limit, it could continue to detect how hard you're actually pressing it, and if you reduce that pressure, without moving the stick.

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2018224801A1.pdf

Might end up never being used, of course. But seems they are at least considering and experimenting with improvements to the standard control elements.

They've also recently filed a slew of applications related to foveating rendering (with and without eye tracking), and a couple around managing wireless transmission for a HMD.
 
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anexanhume

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
gofreak said:
A recent little patent from Sony for improvements to the analog stick - independent pressure sensors on the stem of the stick and/or around the rim to detect pressure differences applied to the stick independent from the the stick's displacement. So, among other things for example, when you push the stick to its limit, it could continue to detect how hard you're actually pressing it, and if you reduce that pressure, without moving the stick.

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2018224801A1.pdf

Might end up never being used, of course. But seems they are at least considering and experimenting with improvements to the standard control elements.

They've also recently filed a slew of applications related to foveating rendering (with and without eye tracking), and a couple around managing wireless transmission for a HMD.
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This is really cool. Nice find! Be sure to post the wireless HMD links too. That's been a hot topic in here.
 
gofreak

gofreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,736
anexanhume said:
This is really cool. Nice find! Be sure to post the wireless HMD links too. That's been a hot topic in here.
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Sure:

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2018225245A1.pdf

And:

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/20180357980.pdf

The second one is pretty interesting - using a camera capture of the environment around the user to help work out a 'main beam direction' for radio signals to the HMD, avoiding occluders and things that might block the signal etc. It describes a relay device for wireless audio/video with its own antennae that need to be directed for an optimal signal to the HMD.

Of course, as always, a patent doesn't necessarily imply a product.

edit - these two also popped up in the last week or so:

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2018220793A1.pdf

and

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/10146302.pdf

That last one goes into quite a lot of stuff about detecting and predicting future locations of a HMD for optimal beam-forming for wireless transmission/reception etc
 
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Radical_Ed

Radical_Ed

Member
Nov 1, 2017
174
Anthony Hopkins said:
Remember that Steve jobs speech about dreamers and stuff? Well, it pretty much sums up #team2019.
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#team2019 forever.
 
anexanhume

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
gofreak said:
Sure:

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2018225245A1.pdf

And:

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/20180357980.pdf

The second one is pretty interesting - using a camera capture of the environment around the user to help work out a 'main beam direction' for radio signals to the HMD, avoiding occluders and things that might block the signal etc. It describes a relay device for wireless audio/video with its own antennae that need to be directed for an optimal signal to the HMD.

Of course, as always, a patent doesn't necessarily imply a product.

edit - these two also popped up in the last week or so:

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2018220793A1.pdf

and

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/10146302.pdf

That last one goes into quite a lot of stuff about detecting and predicting future locations of a HMD for optimal beam-forming for wireless transmission/reception etc
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These are pretty significant IMO. It shows they're concerned about latency, bandwidth, and data loss. PSVR2 is going to be a big jump if these all make it in.
 
Diarrhea Day-Lewis

Diarrhea Day-Lewis

Member
Oct 27, 2017
20,764
A little off topic but I just saw the Ruben 7 2800H APU. Quad core @3.3Ghz, 1.8TFs and 35W on 14nm I believe

If AMD shrunk this down to 7nm, would it be able to work for a portable PS4? Probably a pipe dream but cut the CPU speeds down to Ps4s 1.6Ghz, add 4 more cores, swap the memory for GDDR6 (or would it require a LP RAM?) and halve 35W on 7nm, would it be doable in an 7-10inch portable device?
 
BreakAtmo

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
bonesawisready5 said:
A little off topic but I just saw the Ruben 7 2800H APU. Quad core @3.3Ghz, 1.8TFs and 35W on 14nm I believe

If AMD shrunk this down to 7nm, would it be able to work for a portable PS4? Probably a pipe dream but cut the CPU speeds down to Ps4s 1.6Ghz, add 4 more cores, swap the memory for GDDR6 (or would it require a LP RAM?) and halve 35W on 7nm, would it be doable in an 7-10inch portable device?
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I doubt it. The switch runs at only 7w in handheld mode. Maybe once 5nm or 3nm was available. Then they could release it on the PS4's 10th anniversary.
 

Deleted member 40133

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Feb 19, 2018
6,095
So unless Microsoft is going to hop infront of Sony on console release, Sony must have their ship running fucking tight for absolute zilch to come out by now
 
CosmicBolt

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Oct 28, 2017
884
Now we even know the codename for Next gen Xbox/Dev kit, but still we don't know the codename for PS5.
 

Deleted member 40133

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6,095
Did they lock down their specs super early or something? It's two years out from hypothetical release. But since they have physical devkits it was locked down earlier than that
 
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