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kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,372
Both Taiwanese and US officials are now saying Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan during her trip:

edition.cnn.com

Pelosi expected to visit Taiwan, Taiwanese and US officials say

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan as part of her tour of Asia, according to a senior Taiwanese government official and a US official, despite warnings from Biden administration officials, who are worried about China's response to such a high-profile visit.
Good. The CCP doesn't get to dictate what she does nor what happens in Taiwan. Time to show the CCP that they don't have the power they believe themselves to have.
 

Sqrt

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,880
also regarding China vs. Taiwan, I don't think China has ever done a large-scale amphibious invasion, correct me if I'm wrong. At least nothing to the scale that Taiwan would require. The lack of experience of the Chinese military is a huge unknown. Taiwan hasn't been involved in anything either but being on defense is a whole lot different than planning and executing such an invasion. They are insanely complicated.
They tried, and failed, a smaller one in 1949, for what is worth.
 
OP
OP
giallo

giallo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,239
Seoul
My Wechat is abuzz about the possibility of her visiting Taiwan. Most people are treading very carefully about what they say. I have quite a few really open-minded Chinese friends that don't see Taiwan as a part of modern China. I have equally (if not more) a lot of hardcore patriotic friends that are posting some head-shaking takes about China, and its claim of land sovereignty; nine dash line being the most insane (besides Taiwan).
 

SilentPanda

Member
Nov 6, 2017
13,725
Earth
My Wechat is abuzz about the possibility of her visiting Taiwan. Most people are treading very carefully about what they say. I have quite a few really open-minded Chinese friends that don't see Taiwan as a part of modern China. I have equally (if not more) a lot of hardcore patriotic friends that are posting some head-shaking takes about China, and its claim of land sovereignty; nine dash line being the most insane (besides Taiwan).

Same~~

unknown.png
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,026
They're doing the diplomatic dance where they dont announce the trip in the official itenerary but Pelosi goes.
 

Forerunner

Resetufologist
The Fallen
Oct 30, 2017
14,629
breakingdefense.com

As Pelosi arrives in Taiwan, the big question is if China's 'fire' rhetoric is just hot air - Breaking Defense

Pelosi's visit is happening at a sensitive time for Xi. The party leadership is meeting this week at a resort in advance of the party congress due to be held this fall. Xi has made "reunification" with the island state a keystone of his rule.

There's been much gnashing of teeth about possible consequences from China over a long-discussed visit by US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. With the visit now reportedly set for Tuesday evening local time, all eyes are turned to Beijing and what President Xi Jinping may do in response.

And while there has been a sense of impending doom in some quarters, there are also predictions that there is more sound than fury to come as a result of the visit, with experts noting the rhetoric coming from the People's Republic is pretty standard fare and does not, in itself, signal a likely dangerous response.

But this visit has been anything but usual, given the leadup. In particular, those concerned about Beijing's reaction point to the PRC's readout of the telephone conversation between Xi and US President Joe Biden, which included vivid language for a diplomatic release: "Those who play with fire [on Taiwan] will perish by it."

That comment was echoed again this week by China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian at a daily news briefing. "The will of the people cannot be defied, and those who play with fire will perish by it," Zhao said Sunday. "It is believed the US side is fully aware of China's strong and clear message."

It's attention-grabbing stuff, but as Meia Nouwens of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted in an email, China had used virtually the same language and imagery in late May.

But with the final news that Pelosi would actually visit, Nouwens added that the huge amount of publicity means "Beijing will need to respond one way or another. Xi will have to show strength to his domestic audience. I don't think this will escalate into a conflict, but I expect heightened military signaling by the PLA — just enough to show the level of discontent in Beijing about this visit, but not so much that it risks escalating across the conflict threshold."

Pelosi's visit is happening at a sensitive time for Xi. The party leadership is meeting this week at a resort in advance of the party congress due to be held this fall. Xi has made "reunification" with the island state a keystone of his rule. Monday was the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, and it's worth remembering that the party is the supreme authority in China, not the state.

But US officials believe Xi and the Chinese Communist Party leadership are actually worried by what they've seen in Ukraine — the poor performance of the Russian military and weaponry, and the fact that Putin's invasion has increased the cohesion or NATO and tightened relations between Europe and the United States, as well as its democratic allies in Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

"For all those reasons I think the Chinese are a bit unsettled by the Ukraine War, but I still wouldn't underestimate President Xi's determination to assert China's control over Taiwan," said CIA Director William Burns at Aspen. Intelligence analysts believe Putin's experience in Ukraine is probably not going to deter China from using force against Taiwan, but it may affect how and when they decide to act.

"I suspect the lesson China is drawing is that [in a Taiwan invasion scenario] it has to amass overwhelming force, control the information space, shore up its economy against potential Western sanctions, and do everything possible to drive a wedge between the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region," said Burns. "So I think Xi is still determined to ensure that he has the capabilities to undertake such an action against Taiwan if he chooses to move in that direction, and the risks of him actually doing that become higher the further into this decade we travel."
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,026
That would have been possible 15 years ago, but not in today's hyper connected world.
What are you talking about? The idea is to give some diplomatic cover, not to hide the travel. And no they couldn't have hidden it 15 years ago either

You seem pretty pissed off this visit is happening based on your posts, but sorry, it's probably going to happen and no China can't escalate beyond pouting.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,473
What are you talking about? The idea is to give some diplomatic cover, not to hide the travel. And no they couldn't have hidden it 15 years ago either

You seem pretty pissed off this visit is happening based on your posts, but sorry, it's probably going to happen and no China can't escalate beyond pouting.
Pretty pissed off? What the fuck are you taking about. Showing a level of concern doesn't equal being pissed off. China has seen how badly it goes when you invade a democratic nation based on Russia's colossal failures in Ukraine. Don't put words in my mouth.
 

Ceerious

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,212
Asian
New military reaction from China this morning. Live-fire drills to be held in Northern Bohai Sea, from 14:00 August 1st to 24:00 August 4th; and in Southern China Sea, from 0:00 August 2 to 24:00 August 6th.

Locations:

yjz7sNI.jpg


These two are nothing more than propaganda theatre aiming at mainlanders. More to come in the next few days.
 

SilentPanda

Member
Nov 6, 2017
13,725
Earth
New military reaction from China this morning. Live-fire drills to be held in Northern Bohai Sea, from 14:00 August 1st to 24:00 August 4th; and in Southern China Sea, from 0:00 August 2 to 24:00 August 6th.

Locations:

yjz7sNI.jpg


These two are nothing more than propaganda theatre aiming at mainlanders. More to come in the next few days.

I wonder if they'll shoot missle this time?
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,026
Pretty pissed off? What the fuck are you taking about. Showing a level of concern doesn't equal being pissed off. China has seen how badly it goes when you invade a democratic nation based on Russia's colossal failures in Ukraine. Don't put words in my mouth.

I don't see concern just regurgitating state propaganda about how China is now standing-up to the US, and you avoided adressing your overreaction and a misread to my post entirely.
 

Kobra_Zer0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
298
I gotta respect Pelosi going to Taiwan knowing full well some people at the CPC are advocating to shot down her plane, of course that will never happen but still. Now hopefully China's reponse is all bark and no bite so we don't get another crisis with major global ramifications.
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,026
I gotta respect Pelosi going to Taiwan knowing full well some people at the CPC are advocating to shot down her plane, of course that will never happen but still. Now hopefully China's reponse is all bark and no bite so we don't get another crisis with major global ramifications.
I think sane people in the regime over there knows any hostile action could spiral out of control and lead to a lot worse.

I even doubt if they want to try shooting missles in their stupid for show training exercises, they could accidentally shot something down that coudl be interpreted as escalation and with the Ukraine situation, they won't be treated with kid gloves if another MH-17 style incident happens.
 

Ceerious

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,212
Asian
I wonder if they'll shoot missle this time?

I doubt they will. So far no missiles've been fired. In 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, China used missiles, but even then those were blank ammunation without warhead.

I think we don't have to worry until China firing missiles in drills. And the real breakpoint is when they start firing missiles WITH warhead.
 

rubidium

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,328
Well obviously there are reports that quite a few mainland Chinese flights being cancelled for this particular day. Maybe CCP has informed those airline companies something?
 

SilentPanda

Member
Nov 6, 2017
13,725
Earth
Well obviously there are reports that quite a few mainland Chinese flights being cancelled for this particular day. Maybe CCP has informed those airline companies something?
Its online netizen claiming military usage

tw.news.yahoo.com

廈門航空突宣布「調整福建地區航班」 中國網友喊:給軍機讓路

美國眾議院議長裴洛西傳出今(2)晚會飛抵台灣,針對裴洛西擬訪台,中國持續堅決表達反對立場,廈門航空上午突然發布最新航班調整通知,指出受福建地區流量控制影響,廈航對8月2日部分航班進行調整,中國網友直言

And in their universe they already shot down a plane


unknown.png
 

JackDT

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,123
TIL just visiting Taiwan is controversial. I should be used to this with China by now. I mean, they go hard after random Hearthstone commenters. This feels like tiptoeing around an abusive-alcoholic-ex.
 

Culex

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
6,844
Good- China doesn't get to dictate where the USA sends diplomats or members of Congress.
 
OP
OP
giallo

giallo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,239
Seoul
Good- China doesn't get to dictate where the USA sends diplomats or members of Congress.

The CCP has bullied Taiwan for decades. They claim to have 3000 long range missiles pointed at Taiwan at all times, just in case they want to claim independence.

Taiwan has had to live with this threat for its entire existence. When I lived there, you'd have a few 'missile raid siren tests' every year. Everyone would have to find shelter as quickly as possible. I remember someone ushering me into their restaurant, and giving me a free lunch.

And that's the thing, Taiwanese people are some of the kindest people you'll ever meet. It's an ace country through and through, and I'd encourage anyone to visit. You won't regret it.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,473
The CCP has bullied Taiwan for decades. They claim to have 3000 long range missiles pointed at Taiwan at all times, just in case they want to claim independence.

Taiwan has had to live with this threat for its entire existence. When I lived there, you'd have a few 'missile raid siren tests' every year. Everyone would have to find shelter as quickly as possible. I remember someone ushering me into their restaurant, and giving me a free lunch.

And that's the thing, Taiwanese people are some of the kindest people you'll ever meet. It's an ace country through and through, and I'd encourage anyone to visit. You won't regret it.
I've heard their national parks are breathtaking. Would love to visit someday, I have an Aunt who lives in Tokyo so hopefully sooner rather than later.