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Oct 25, 2017
4,841
Oh wait, so the $1.00 is for only 1 month, and then you are paying the normal $10? Wow that makes so much more fucking sense. I thought you could stack this like XBL Gold or PS+

Even at $5.00 a month, if enough people sign up, that's a lot of profits for many games no? Is Game Pass more profitable than straight up sales? For most middle-value games, it must be, especially SP games that dont have huge funding/backing.
There is a promotion where if you buy up to 3 years of Xbox Live Gold first, you can convert it into Game Pass Ultimate. Xbox Live Gold is $60/year. Nobody knows when this promotion ends.

This is also why it would be pointless to reveal subscriber numbers because it's likely that the vast majority of GP-holder accounts are under a promotion, specifically the Gold conversion.

My own opinion is that I'll use my two years of Gold-converted Game Pass on PC till it ends but then will not pay full price. Microsoft Store is absolutely terrible and destroys any value the service has. I'll just enjoy some cheap gaming while it lasts.
 

BackToKitchen10

Alt-account
Banned
Dec 14, 2019
76
But Phil !!! The armchair business executives and game developers on Twitter and N4G said that Game Pass is bad for the industry and developers and that you'll be forced to make cheap A cartoon flash games 🤔🤡
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,960
My own opinion is that I'll use my two years of Gold-converted Game Pass on PC till it ends but then will not pay full price. Microsoft Store is absolutely terrible and destroys any value the service has.

Hey, that terrible MS Store accepts my payment method for conversion where both Xbox App and MS Website do not. Don't ask me how it works, it just works on Windows MS Store app.

People outside official regions rejoice!
 

Pasha

Banned
Jan 27, 2018
3,018
every time i turn on my Xbox and my previous game pass has lapsed it offers me at least a month of ultimate for $1. half the time there are two "bonus months" for the same price. i was just looking at what remains of Edith Finch on the eshop and saw it was $20. checked the PlayStation store, $20. checked Xbox.. included with game pass. turned it on, $1/3 month game pass ultimate ad right on the home screen. so now i paid a dollar instead of 20 to be able to play the game i was looking for, as well as many others for three months.

it's great. don't get me wrong. i just feel kind of bad about it to be honest. i don't know HOW it's sustainable.
They are trying to get people invested into the ecosystem, obviously it's not going to be sustainable at 1$/month, but they don't care about that right now. They are pumping money into it to get people hooked and then they'll pull the plug on these promotions.
I think people are waaay overthinking these things. There are like almost no people out there that are going to be micro-managing their subscription services to save a few extra bucks a month, most people will subscribe and forget like they do with Netflix.
 

blame space

Resettlement Advisor
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,420
I'm paying on average like $10 for something they sell for $120. I'm doing this through their products, promotions, and advertisements completely legitimately.

isn't this the definition of unsustainable? people who pay full price can't keep subsidizing me forever.

and to people who claim that this doesn't devalue games, read my earlier post. linda mentioned "what remains of Edith Finch," i shopped around, and i ended up paying $1 to play it instead of $20 to "own" it. i can't imagine whatever microsoft paid for that game to be on their service makes that value work out to be sustainable.
 

blame space

Resettlement Advisor
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,420
when the promotional prices and deals dry up, that is the true test to see if this is sustainable.

and they're making it as confusing for consumers as possible in the mean time.
 

Nome

Designer / Self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,312
NYC
I'm paying on average like $10 for something they sell for $120. I'm doing this through their products, promotions, and advertisements completely legitimately.

isn't this the definition of unsustainable? people who pay full price can't keep subsidizing me forever.

and to people who claim that this doesn't devalue games, read my earlier post. linda mentioned "what remains of Edith Finch," i shopped around, and i ended up paying $1 to play it instead of $20 to "own" it. i can't imagine whatever microsoft paid for that game to be on their service makes that value work out to be sustainable.
The whole point of Game Pass, Battle Pass, low-cost subscription services, etc. is to incentivize higher conversions--that is, increase the number of people who make a purchase. Even though each individual customer might be getting a better deal, and each customer is worth less money, because there are so many more customers, the developers still make more money overall. That's why it's sustainable.

It only becomes unsustainable if the subscriber count drops.
 

blame space

Resettlement Advisor
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,420
which will inevitably happen when they stop making it available so cheaply.
 
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12Danny123

Member
Jan 31, 2018
1,722
I can see Microsoft cutting the price of Game Pass Basic to $5 per month (and have Ultimate stay at $15 per month) which includes Streaming and Multiplayer access.

But I think to answer the statement Phil provided. It's likely sustainable for Microsoft since they are large enough to sustain the losses until it becomes a profit for them. But for smaller companies like EA, Nintendo, Sony etc it will be very difficult to sustain the service, especially at the output of Game Pass. Disney will be losing Billions 4.5 Billion in 2020 and Disney taking 2.5 Billion of that number, and that's not for putting their content day 1 on Disney+. For smaller companies in the gaming industry, the burden is simply too big. To avoid the losses you either.

  1. Have a high price for the subscription
  2. Increase in Microtransactions, MTX
  3. Reduce the amount of output from third parties and first-party released on the service.
Larger companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Disney, for example, can ignore this and absorb the short term losses because they are large enough and their core businesses are not affected by this.

EA, gaming is their core business for example only releases 4 games per year onto their service.

So in summary the key for smaller companies in the gaming industry to sustain their service is to try to absorb the short term losses in the service which could be in the Billions. Moviepass is an example that couldn't survive the short term losses made. If they survive the losses long enough, they will eventually gain a profit.

which will inevitably happen when they stop making it available so cheaply.

it depends if they are grandfathered. For existing customers, it's likely any price increases will only affect new customers and not existing customers. But we don't know how it will affect subscriber numbers since we don't have any numbers at the first place and we aren't likely going to get them anytime soon.
 
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Jiraiya

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,292
People keep making these inevitability arguments like everyone gets the same mileage out of gamepass as them. Just because YOU won't pay X amount....doesn't mean the next two will do the same.

I think folk underestimate how hard it is for some consumers to have a backlog.
 

nuttyevans

Member
Nov 8, 2017
541
Not really my problem if Game Pass is sustainable or not. I got years of it for £1 and once it starts asking for £9.99 per month I'm out.

I'd be curious if anyone actually pays the RRP at this point
 

predrag

Member
Oct 27, 2017
519
Not really my problem if Game Pass is sustainable or not. I got years of it for £1 and once it starts asking for £9.99 per month I'm out.

I'd be curious if anyone actually pays the RRP at this point
To be honest, I was lazy to chase up to 3 years of ultimate and just converted what I already had of Gold. When that expires in August 2020, I will just continue being subscribed (as I was before $1 deal). I'm sharing GP with my brother, so the cost of it is like two coffees.

And people who think that they are somehow screwing MS for using deals and promotions, well you are not. Even if you pay $1 or have promo code, you are still part of metrics, which for MS has some other value other than just getting your regular sub. Playing GP games you are part of the ecosystem and you spent some time in it.
 
Dec 10, 2019
298
It's easy. Netflix has only one way to monetize their content. Subscription fees.
Microsoft can still sell games, they can sell additional content and they can get ad revenue. Same goes for publishers that put games into that services.
That's why Game Pass is sustainable for a quite low price.

We'll see how that is in 5 to 10 years.
 

Schaft0620

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
838
Microsoft also has to pay third-party developers so the revenue doesn't translate one to one. If the economics work so well Sony would've jumped in right away, cause there's literally nothing proprietary about Gamepass.

I laid the math out and, MS isn't launching AAA or even AA 3rd party games on Game Pass. These are games that made their money already. Epic Game Store is doing almost the same thing.

Also, it's not like 3rd party devs count money differently than the rest of the world.
 

Deleted member 51306

User requested account closure
Banned
Dec 27, 2018
628
I think it's hilarious that there are people on here that thinks one of the most profitable companies in the world has been doing something for 2 or more years and continuing to grow investment in the service when it isn't being profitable for them.
 

Orayn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,973
There's been a lot of reassurance from Microsoft about it but I would feel more reassured with some detail about the methods and amounts devs get out of it. That stuff is probably all under NDA but it would be really interesting to see the actual dollar figures and metrics for a major Game Pass darling like Sea of Thieves or The Outer Worlds.

Minutes played? Downloads? Lump sum when your game goes on the service? Some combination of all those? A choice? Is the actual payout enough to keep the lights on for a studio of a certain size? Is it like Spotify where people will produce new content designed to drive the metrics in a way that actually makes them pay?

I rather like Game Pass and this isn't concern trolling. I want to scrutinize it because I don't like the idea of creators getting screwed.
 

StudioTan

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,836
There's been a lot of reassurance from Microsoft about it but I would feel more reassured with some detail about the methods and amounts devs get out of it. That stuff is probably all under NDA but it would be really interesting to see the actual dollar figures and metrics for a major Game Pass darling like Sea of Thieves or The Outer Worlds.

Minutes played? Downloads? Lump sum when your game goes on the service? Some combination of all those? A choice? Is the actual payout enough to keep the lights on for a studio of a certain size? Is it like Spotify where people will produce new content designed to drive the metrics in a way that actually makes them pay?

I rather like Game Pass and this isn't concern trolling. I want to scrutinize the things I like because I don't want creators to get completely screwed.

That stuff has already been revealed. Devs get a lump sum up front to put their games on the service for X amount of time. They can also get a bonus for reaching certain download numbers. They're not paid based on time played. Sometimes, like with Fallout 4, the game will leave the service and come back later so I would assume if both parties want the game on the service after the initial time has passed they can negotiate a new deal.
 

Orayn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,973
That stuff has already been revealed. Devs get a lump sum up front to put their games on the service for X amount of time. They can also get a bonus for reaching certain download numbers. They're not paid based on time played. After the time period is up they can renegotiate. Sometimes, like with Fallout 4, the game will leave the service and come back later.
Then I need to chalk up parts of my doubts to my own ignorance and lack of research, thank you.

In that case I just hope the dollar amounts are competitive and that Game Pass doesn't warp perceptions of game value in a way that negatively affects developers (and the medium at large) in the future. I say this as someone whose perceptions are already starting to be warped by thinking "Oh sweet, that's on GP, I wouldn't have considered buying it normally otherwise" in a few major instances.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,789
I fear less that it fails and more that it succeeds and creates another ecosystem problem. The best platforms need to constantly fight tooth and nail for relevance, if you are making a boat load of profit then it means the service you offer isn't providing significant value and likely becoming a monopoly. So I want them to work for it.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,158
I fear less that it fails and more that it succeeds and creates another ecosystem problem. The best platforms need to constantly fight tooth and nail for relevance, if you are making a boat load of profit then it means the service you offer isn't providing significant value and likely becoming a monopoly. So I want them to work for it.

If a company is making huge profits the opposite is true. Huge profits will create new competition and make it less likely there is a monopoly.
 

tutomos

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,612
I laid the math out and, MS isn't launching AAA or even AA 3rd party games on Game Pass. These are games that made their money already. Epic Game Store is doing almost the same thing.

Also, it's not like 3rd party devs count money differently than the rest of the world.

First Xbox already has 64 million monthly active users across Xbox, Windows 10 and Smartphones. How about converting the majority of them to Gamepass first?

Playstation generated $20.8 billion in total sales last year while the operating income is $2.8 billion. 13% profit when you subtract all the cost and pay-back to third-parties.

Annual revenue for Microsoft's Gaming segment was $11.5 billion last year, you talking about adding $1 billion of revenue form Gamepass and Xbox's business model is really close to Playstation's. How much of that $1 billion does Microsoft get to keep? Probably at best 15-20%.
 

12Danny123

Member
Jan 31, 2018
1,722
I fear less that it fails and more that it succeeds and creates another ecosystem problem. The best platforms need to constantly fight tooth and nail for relevance, if you are making a boat load of profit then it means the service you offer isn't providing significant value and likely becoming a monopoly. So I want them to work for it.

Making it a subscription service does make MS fight tooth and nail for relevance. it incentivises them to focus on the diversity of games, have acquisitions and IP and focus on quality.

Netflix is still profitable.

In technical terms they are profitable, but Free Cash Flow, meaning what they are spending at the moment is 2-4 Billion in the red.
 

12Danny123

Member
Jan 31, 2018
1,722
There's been a lot of reassurance from Microsoft about it but I would feel more reassured with some detail about the methods and amounts devs get out of it. That stuff is probably all under NDA but it would be really interesting to see the actual dollar figures and metrics for a major Game Pass darling like Sea of Thieves or The Outer Worlds.

Minutes played? Downloads? Lump sum when your game goes on the service? Some combination of all those? A choice? Is the actual payout enough to keep the lights on for a studio of a certain size? Is it like Spotify where people will produce new content designed to drive the metrics in a way that actually makes them pay?

I rather like Game Pass and this isn't concern trolling. I want to scrutinize it because I don't like the idea of creators getting screwed.

Creators have MASSIVE leverage over Platform holders in Subscription Gaming. As the user base increases, they will demand more. The reason why MS most likely doesn't give out numbers is because of negotiation leverage. If the developers/publishers don't know the user base numbers MS has leverage.

In a business standpoint, it was probably a mistake for Sony to release PS Now numbers since Publishers and developers will demand more for their games to be on the service especially since Sony is at the disadvantage compared to Game Pass. creators will have Sony pay more.
 

DvdGzz

Banned
Mar 21, 2018
3,580
Why show their hand? What if they are making so much that it causes Sony to greenlight a better version of PS Now. It would take away one of Xbox's biggest advantages before their dev studios are able to finish their games. Better to remain quiet.
 

Shadout

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,808
No one has even hinted at episodic games for Game Pass have they? After three years. Why worry about it?
True. I said, if games primarily become subscription based. As in the scenario where Game Pass (or similar) becomes wildly successful and a dominant game distribution method. Which it hasn't been in the last 3 years. Most current games on Game Pass was made for non-subscription distribution.
 

Pasha

Banned
Jan 27, 2018
3,018
I'm paying on average like $10 for something they sell for $120. I'm doing this through their products, promotions, and advertisements completely legitimately.
Good, and keep doing that as long as you can. Microsoft will take care of itself, so don't worry about "stealing" a few bucks from the wealthiest company in human history.
isn't this the definition of unsustainable? people who pay full price can't keep subsidizing me forever.
No, you are vastly overestimating peoples willingness to micromanage 10$/month subscription fees, not to mention the fact that as soon as MS hits their subscriber goals they'll probably severely reduce your ability to stack these deals.
and to people who claim that this doesn't devalue games, read my earlier post. linda mentioned "what remains of Edith Finch," i shopped around, and i ended up paying $1 to play it instead of $20 to "own" it. i can't imagine whatever microsoft paid for that game to be on their service makes that value work out to be sustainable.
Edith Finch devs got their money from MS, and it was probably hell of a lot more than your 20$.
The ALL TIME HIGH player count for What Remains of Edith Finch on Steam is 282 players, so it's a safe bet that there were no digital lines around the block waiting to grab this game at 20$ a pop. These games are perfect for Game Pass because they most likely didn't sell well in the first place, so a quick cash injection from services like Game Pass could help the developers a LOT.
Your download on Game Pass also probably means a hell of a lot more to the devs than those 20$ that you may or may not have spent since their success on Game Pass could mean more future customers or even a better cash deal from MS on their future games.

Anyway, it's just silly to do straight cash conversions from how much you pay for GP compared to how much you might have payed for some game. It just doesn't work that way, and if it did GP would be nothing but MS first-party exclusives service or not exist at all.
 
Jan 9, 2018
2,885
Game pass will thrive by not having the newest games but still having stuff you want to play months after release but didn't want to pay $60 for
Initial sales aren't hurt because day one players gonna day one
Plus you get people to try games they normally would not and that can create sales for sequels or even previous entries in the franchise
And I'm sure DLC sales for the games are spiked because people will say well since I got this with game pass I don't mind spending $15 on expansions or $5 on this skin etc.
 

Kittenz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,156
Minneapolis
And I'm sure DLC sales for the games are spiked because people will say well since I got this with game pass I don't mind spending $15 on expansions or $5 on this skin etc.
It me. I go out of my way to buy something if I fall in love with the game. Give the devs some love. If no DLC I have bought another game from the same team.

I'd double dip if the platform suits me. Slay the Spire on iOS. Megacrit. Make it happen. Take my money.
 

DvdGzz

Banned
Mar 21, 2018
3,580
People will keep paying at full price for the most part because the amount of new games that will be added, slightly older games that they wanted to try but not for $40+, and having access to hundreds of others. It's simple to justify when 3 new games a year will cost you the same amount as a full year of Game Pass Ultimate. Millions of subscribers will keep MS and the devs happy.
 

GhostTrick

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,316
When I get 3 years of Gamepass Ultimate for 0 dollars, yes, I'm concerned about sustainability.

Also, I find that stance "dont care about the business, care about the game" toxic as fuck from companies.

When a company or a businessman tell you "let me handle the rest, just have fun" it raises a shitload of warnings for me. Of course I care about that. Why ? Not for dumb platform warring that some people might be partaking in and their concern trolling.

But a subscription based service like Gamepass is a shift in the way people consume games. It's only normal to have concerns about a model shift because you cant tell where things will head not only for you but for the market as a whole.

Why people worry about sustainability ? Because it's freaking simple: It's not about your favorite company's financial health.
It's about the consequences if that model thrives. If it's unsustainable the way it is, then they'll make it sustainable in a way or a other, which often means the customer gets fucked. Higher prices. Less content. More restrictions.

And I highly doubt that if GP takes off, it'll still be a 1 dollar deal, heck I even doubt it'll still be a 15 dollars deal.
 
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Athrum

Member
Oct 18, 2019
1,341
If the player-base for the next Xbox raises significantly during next-gen, I can guarantee you that people will stop seeing all the new games in GS.
 

Alienous

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,605
I'm going to wait until we see third party games developed with the existence of Game Pass in mind.

EA and Ubisoft have subscription services, but it's only after they committed heavily to the GaaS model.

I'm curious to see how it impacts game design. Is Halo Infinite going to be a Campaign + Multiplayer like would be expected from a 'Halo 6'. Will it be episodes of a story spread over months?

The mobile market compensates for a low cost of entry with microtransactions - will those be a larger part of indie games as the idea of having a breakout sales success doesn't apply?
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
I think it's hilarious that there are people on here that thinks one of the most profitable companies in the world has been doing something for 2 or more years and continuing to grow investment in the service when it isn't being profitable for them.
It's not currently profitable for them. If it was, that would mean the service is being mismanaged.

When you want to grow a buisness, profitability just means you are saving income that could be diverted into driving higher growth.

Profit comes later, for now and the next several years growth is the objective. And they are doing very well on that front.
 

Florin4k4

Banned
Mar 18, 2019
516
Maybe i'm wrong but I feel some people are missing the point of this thread. The topic is if gp is sustainable. So somebody asking for Numbers is perfectly normal, not "concern trolling"
 

zedox

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,215
When I get 3 years of Gamepass Ultimate for 0 dollars, yes, I'm concerned about sustainability.

Also, I find that stance "dont care about the business, care about the game" toxic as fuck from companies.

When a company or a businessman tell you "let me handle the rest, just have fun" it raises a shitload of warnings for me. Of course I care about that. Why ? Not for dumb platform warring that some people might be partaking in and their concern trolling.

But a subscription based service like Gamepass is a shift in the way people consume games. It's only normal to have concerns about a model shift because you cant tell where things will head not only for you but for the market as a whole.

Why people worry about sustainability ? Because it's freaking simple: It's not about your favorite company's financial health.
It's about the consequences if that model thrives. If it's unsustainable the way it is, then they'll make it sustainable in a way or a other, which often means the customer gets fucked. Higher prices. Less content. More restrictions.

And I highly doubt that if GP takes off, it'll still be a 1 dollar deal, heck I even doubt it'll still be a 15 dollars deal.

Higher prices of what? Individual games? That wouldn't make sense because you have people who would just go ahead and pay for the cheaper subscription option. Higher prices for the subscription? That will most likely happen over a long period of time but it will still be cheaper than outright buying a game.

Less content? That doesn't make sense when the subscription model itself is based off of having a lot of content (and varied content).

More restrictions. You would have to explain what more restrictions consumers would be under with a subscription model in the market because I don't see how it is different than what it is now.

I'm not asking these questions for console warring or anything, I'm asking how you think this business model will affect the market in a way that will be concerning because as I see it, the model will be fine within this market as just with every other market, it's an option...even if the majority use that model.

Maybe i'm wrong but I feel some people are missing the point of this thread. The topic is if gp is sustainable. So somebody asking for Numbers is perfectly normal, not "concern trolling"
Asking for those "numbers" won't do anything but have people look at it from a black and white standpoint and say it's not making money. I say this with confidence because the number of people referencing the $1 (or magical $0) trials as a point in MS making money on the service when MS is in investment mode and decreasing loss and improving profits by getting more users within the ecosystem (not only this thread). Microsoft is playing the long game...so even if it wasn't sustainable it would be a while before they cut off the business, but a good number of people who are concerned don't understand that (otherwise they wouldn't be pointing out the $1 trial stuff). People on this forum have been saying what I have stated about MS investing in this model for their future but it gets ignored and the same ole thing is brought up. If MS had 10m users would that be sufficient for people? If they were at 2m would that be sufficient? Do they want to see growth? The likelyhood of that answer is no.
 
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Soap

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,193
Game pass and Origin Access premier have already changed my buying habits with steam sales, and once/if Microsoft sort out all the weird issues with the gamepass app I think it will o my spread. I can't really be too concerned about game pass as long as the games are still available for purchase.
 

Jiraiya

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,292
Maybe i'm wrong but I feel some people are missing the point of this thread. The topic is if gp is sustainable. So somebody asking for Numbers is perfectly normal, not "concern trolling"

Getting numbers won't tell them if it's sustainable. Something tells me they'd need to know a lot more information to come to that conclusion. Like...allot more info.

Even if the numbers were out there....folk Would create their own narrative out of it.