Note it'd still likely need to go back through the 'safety' trials at least if any changes needed to be made - much the same way as the flu vaccine gets tweaked each year for different strains, for example. So it would be a setback. Just not a 'back to square one, start again' setback.
My buddy's wife is the vaccine project lead at BioNTech. Sadly I'm not getting any info earlier than the rest of us, but I already knew weeks ago that they're very confident.
Has she said anything about how that feels? I can imagine on one hand how many scientists feel like they're literally saving the world, but also the pressures of that?
Well, it's extremely exhausting for one. My buddy works there as well and basically had to be a single dad working from home for a while since she was in the lab almost 24/7. On the other hand she knows how important it is and that's what's giving her the strength to keep going.
How about quoting the rest of my post where I give what I think are fair reasons for not taking the results at face value instead of just doing this smarmy emoji stuff.
I was thinking that too, If they hit a vein they've messed up. lol
my thing is snide emoji posts like your thing is obnoxious doomerposting that would be better served being typed in a notepad window that was subsequently closed for all the good it ever does for discussion here
I'm not sure if someone already posted it, but Wendover did a great video on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byW1GExQB84
They keep going as we likely need multiple candidates released to speed up vaccine distribution.
ya bro lemme just jam these two doses into my arm and keep them cool at a chilly -70C in my house. thanks USPS
Right. Like that's par for the course with a flu shot as well. They give you a heads up that you might feel like shit for a day or two and then it's business-as-usual.
Pfizer itself is only predicting 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021, so that is 650 million people. AstraZeneca is aiming at 3 billion by EOY 2021 which would mean another 1.5 billion people. Moderna thinks it can do one billion per year, and that is a one shot IIRC so that is about 3 billion by EOY 2021 by the three major candidates.
A close friend of mine is in a different COVID vaccine trial here in the UK, and he felt awful (chills, shakes, sensitive skin, headache) the day after receiving what he's pretty sure was the vaccine - not the placebo - but after 24 hours he was back to normal.
Johnson & Johnson doesn't predict be available in Q1, the Russian vaccine lost its license, CanSino only predicted 300 million doses per year initially.
I know at least one of the major trials is using meningitis vaccines as the placebo. They hit hard.
Do remember that by that time we will have access to a lot of fast testing capacity, that the hospital system would be protected as the staff has the vaccine, that first world countries are going to be getting their vaccines sooner as they already have deals in place, ... so it will be a different situation already.
