Pete Buttigieg rising to the top in Iowa polls

Ecotic · Nov 16, 2019

The Democratic field has four defective frontrunners. I believe Warren is a very probable loser in the general election. She's too far left on policy and her persona is repugnant to value voters. She'll lose the Midwest and the election with it. She would probably not put North Carolina and Georgia into contention like perhaps Biden could. Bernie is fading and I think he's barely in contention anymore.

So I'm fine with Buttigieg's rise because Democrats need some alternative to Biden to consider. Biden is great on paper and in the polls but his campaign abilities and mental sharpness is far lower than Buttigieg's. Biden could easily slowly sink from bad intangibles and in hindsight it would have been totally obvious that he was a loser. I just don't know how Buttigieg being a small-town will ultimately play in a general election. I don't know if he can get minorities to turn out in the big numbers a Democrat needs to win. His military experience is a big plus. I think his 'Medicare for those who want it' plan would play great in the general election.

Luminish · Nov 16, 2019

sapien85 said:
Ted Cruz, Santorum, Tom Harkin (who?), Bob Dole (1988), Dick Gephardt, George Bush Sr (1980) all won Iowa and went down in flames later.

Obama, Kerry, and Carter's wins are indisputably tied to Iowa's results, as is Giuliani's loss.

I'm hoping it's just Biden's downfall, but I'm worried that Buttigieg has a lot to gain from becoming a "serious" candidate. After winning Iowa, you can't just dismiss him as just a college town mayor.

Addie · Nov 16, 2019

mutantmagnet said:
Psst. Pete is from Harvard. He's even a Rhodes scholar. Basically there is no way to compete with the cultural and marketing cachet of that educational background in America. Warren might as well went to Trump university. None of the candidates can compete with that background directly.

Here's another thing you aren't noticing. Pete is from the midwest. When Americans think of intellectual elites...they think of the coasts.

Pete by being an elite of the midwest will garner more hype as the new great white hope of the poor so to speak.

I'm like one of two Pete semi-fans left here, but Warren taught at UPenn and Harvard. She's also from Oklahoma, not the coasts. So I'll quibble with the "might as well went to Trump University" comment.

Deleted member 526 · Nov 16, 2019

imagine liking this worm lol

Deleted member 31817 · Nov 16, 2019

sphagnum said:
He's not being honest, he's being sleazy and using right wing talking points when months ago he demonstrated that he knew better.

Thank god someone tackled that quote, utter nonsense.

danm999 · Nov 16, 2019

He's gonna leech support from Biden and deny both of them the nom IMO.

Gashprex · Nov 16, 2019

sphagnum said:
He's not being honest, he's being sleazy and using right wing talking points when months ago he demonstrated that he knew better.

I think its perfectly fine to not like Pete buts completely disingenuous to suggest has changed his stance On M4A

Royalan · Nov 16, 2019

I mean...

I want to be disgusted, that Buttigieg is surging after spending the last month throwing Black voters under the bus is borderline despicable to me.

But then, I get it. This is Iowa we're talking about. One of the whitest states in the country gets to set the tone for the primaries of the party of diversity, and this is the role black people traditionally play. Ignored until you need us.

Gwenpoolshark · Nov 16, 2019

Thunder11 said:
This forum hates this guy

"This is designed to be one of the most U S E R F R I E N D L Y small cities in America."

CURSED

Deleted member 15440 · Nov 16, 2019

Thunder11 said:
This forum hates this guy

for good reason, he's shit

RailWays · Nov 16, 2019

Royalan said:
I mean...

I want to be disgusted, that Buttigieg is surging after spending the last month throwing Black voters under the bus is borderline despicable to me.

But then, I get it. This is Iowa we're talking about. One of the whitest states in the country gets to set the tone for the primaries of the party of diversity, and this is the role black people traditionally play. Ignored until you need us.

Ain't that the truth

BowieZ · Nov 16, 2019

Officer Big Mac said:
You can unclutch your pearls. As a gay man I think its wonderful he's being taken seriously as a candidate.

It really does seem like you're taking him seriously...

Really seriously, though: please do not broadcast crass sexual jokes that perpetuate gay stereotypes, whether or not you feel entitled to as a gay person.

DiscoShark · Nov 16, 2019

Royalan said:
I want to be disgusted, that Buttigieg is surging after spending the last month throwing Black voters under the bus is borderline despicable to me.

In what way has he been throwing black voters under the bus?

JahIthBer · Nov 16, 2019

danm999 said:
He's gonna leech support from Biden and deny both of them the nom IMO.

Good, i love how Warren/Sanders scare billionaires, though Warren seems to be doing a better job of this.
Biden is too centrist these days, does USA really want 4/8 more years of the status quo. Well if you do that's fine i guess.

Royalan · Nov 16, 2019

DiscoShark said:
In what way has he been throwing black voters under the bus?

--Never really responding or taking ownership for the poor leadership he has shown for the black people in his own damn city for starters. But that goes back further than a month.

--His campaign leaning in on the dogwhistle that homophobia in the black community is the reason why he's not doing well with them is probably the clearest dog whistle I've heard on the left since the last time Bernie Sanders complained about "identity politics."

--His campaign touting Black support that they didn't actually have.

Sai · Nov 16, 2019

Officer Big Mac said:
I figured he was a bottom.

lmfao at straight era tone policing queer comedy

this owns lol

Chie Satonaka · Nov 16, 2019

Royalan said:
--Never really responding or taking ownership for the poor leadership he has shown for the black people in his own damn city for starters. But that goes back further than a month.

--His campaign leaning in on the dogwhistle that homophobia in the black community is the reason why he's not doing well with them is probably the clearest dog whistle I've heard on the left since the last time Bernie Sanders complained about "identity politics."

--His campaign touting Black support that they didn't actually have.

All of this.

Also, uh, to the bolded, I haven't forgotten about this, but nobody wants to talk about THAT, either.

Deleted member 31817 · Nov 17, 2019

Sai said:
lmfao at straight era tone policing queer comedy

this owns lol

Gotta love it

I found it funny too and don't even understand how it's crass???

ry-dog · Nov 17, 2019

Royalan said:
--His campaign leaning in on the dogwhistle that homophobia in the black community is the reason why he's not doing well with them is probably the clearest dog whistle I've heard on the left since the last time Bernie Sanders complained about "identity politics."

I think even if he had air tight progressive policy, his sexuality would 100% hold him back from winning
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-voters-reluctant-to-support-a-gay-candidate/

ry-dog · Nov 17, 2019

Sai said:
lmfao at straight era tone policing queer comedy

this owns lol

Yep lol. Thought it was pretty clever

Royalan · Nov 17, 2019

ry-dog said:
I think even if he had air tight progressive policy, his sexuality would 100% hold him back from winning
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-voters-reluctant-to-support-a-gay-candidate/

Here's the thing, and I say this full-throated as a black gay man.

I don't care.

Buttigieg hasn't displayed, at any point in his career as a politician or gay person, a particular care about Black people, Black gay people (because we exist, and we don't like him either), or homophobia in the Black community. He has not been a part of that effort or work. He has not ever used his position to shine a respectful light on that issue or on black queer people in general.

So no, you don't get to use "Black people don't like me because I'm gay!!!!" as a crutch now because you're polling badly with us. You ain't do any kind of work to get our respect, bruh.

Masterz1337 · Nov 17, 2019

Ecotic said:
The Democratic field has four defective frontrunners. I believe Warren is a very probable loser in the general election. She's too far left on policy and her persona is repugnant to value voters. She'll lose the Midwest and the election with it. She would probably not put North Carolina and Georgia into contention like perhaps Biden could. Bernie is fading and I think he's barely in contention anymore.

So I'm fine with Buttigieg's rise because Democrats need some alternative to Biden to consider. Biden is great on paper and in the polls but his campaign abilities and mental sharpness is far lower than Buttigieg's. Biden could easily slowly sink from bad intangibles and in hindsight it would have been totally obvious that he was a loser. I just don't know how Buttigieg being a small-town will ultimately play in a general election. I don't know if he can get minorities to turn out in the big numbers a Democrat needs to win. His military experience is a big plus. I think his 'Medicare for those who want it' plan would play great in the general election.

This this this.

Addie said:
I'm like one of two Pete semi-fans left here, but Warren taught at UPenn and Harvard. She's also from Oklahoma, not the coasts. So I'll quibble with the "might as well went to Trump University" comment.

I must be the other one.

I know a lot of people have soured on him as of late, but I maintain he is more progressive than he currently lets on at the current moment. At any rate, people here should want him as the "moderate" more than Biden in this race. He's agenda is still more progressive than Obamas was, and he also unlike Obama or "coastal elite " knows how to handle the Midwest and can help get progressive ideals flowing through that part of the country. He's an excellent communicator. I have maintained that he would be an ideal running mate for Warren.

Also I so want to see him debate Pence, and for Pence to have to shake his hand.

PersonAndStuff · Nov 17, 2019

Id prefer Warren but Buttigeg will do okay.

Ziltoidia 9 · Nov 17, 2019

The convention is going to be contested regardless, basically every primary is going to be a huge deal. I don't think people realize how much next year is going to exhausting mentally.

Deleted member 31817 · Nov 17, 2019

Masterz1337 said:
This this this.

I must be the other one.

I know a lot of people have soured on him as of late, but I maintain he is more progressive than he currently lets on at the current moment.

What makes you think that?

DiscoShark · Nov 17, 2019

Royalan said:
--Never really responding or taking ownership for the poor leadership he has shown for the black people in his own damn city for starters. But that goes back further than a month.

--His campaign leaning in on the dogwhistle that homophobia in the black community is the reason why he's not doing well with them is probably the clearest dog whistle I've heard on the left since the last time Bernie Sanders complained about "identity politics."

--His campaign touting Black support that they didn't actually have.

If you're referring to the officer involved shooting in South Bend then I don't think you can fault him for not taking responsibility, he was pretty clear from the outset that despite whatever steps they'd taken that they clearly came up short for addressing problems of systemic racism within his police force. He's been frank about this among his own people in South Bend and on the debate stage.

I'm not gonna fault the campaign for the conclusions drawn by different focus groups or comments made by local representatives not affiliated with his campaign - Buttigieg's campaign has pushed back against the notion that their failure to attract black voters is because of his sexuality.

There was clearly a misstep with the Douglass Plan support though.

As a black voter, I don't think any of these specific issues are deal breakers.

Royalan · Nov 17, 2019

DiscoShark said:
I'm not gonna fault the campaign for the conclusions drawn by different focus groups or comments made by local representatives not affiliated with his campaign - Buttigieg's campaign has pushed back against the notion that their failure to attract black voters is because of his sexuality.

Has Buttigieg himself pushed back?

Masterz1337 · Nov 17, 2019

Psychoward said:
What makes you think that?

Much of what he talked about earlier before he really took off, he was great on breakfast club, and I haven't seen another democratic candidate to have as comprehensive of an understanding of race relations and systemic racism. I know Kamala and Obama probably DO have them, but they for fairly obvious reasons are afraid of can't express them without political consequences. Bernie gets a lot of it too, but hasn't articulated it.

He's for medicare for all who want it (which is still medicare for all), is anti military intervention and has the expierence in intelligence, is a supporter of capitalism but also expresses why it needs to be reigned in, and that having a free market does not equate to peoples own economic freedom.

The midwest and rustbelt are what he needs to win, I think he's being very calculated in how he is doing that knowing the coasts will vote for him regardless. Even if he isn't the MOST progressive, he still qualifies. It's also important to note even Biden is more progressive than Obama at this point. Once any of these candidates come to power, they will follow what is popular and that is increasingly progressive ideals. If the Midwest and swing states want him, fine by me. It's the best way to get a progressive (or at this point just an intelligent) agenda through.

Sweeney Swift · Nov 17, 2019

Nick said:
So, Trump is getting reelected isn't he?

This has been the dominant thought/most likely outcome since Election Day 2016 officially ended, and nothing that's happened since has done shit to erase, or provide contrary evidence to, that real and increasingly growing concern. If anything our side has become more complacent now than we were August 2016, thinking it's in the bag and there's No Way he can win (again)

Deleted member 31817 · Nov 17, 2019

Masterz1337 said:
is anti military intervention and has the expierence in intelligence, is a supporter of capitalism but also expresses why it needs to be reigned in, and that having a free market does not equate to peoples own economic freedom.

And this is where you lost me

He served overseas and isn't nearly critical enough of the US military/military industrial complex. I get that shitting on the military isn't exactly a great campaign strategy but he's failed to do the bare minimum and has shown a shocking lack of empathy towards why people hate the US military. I mean for fuck's sake

And Medicare for all who want it is universal healthcare sure and I think that's the only feasible starting scenario because we're not getting single payer in 2020, but it's not the same thing as Bernie or Warren's plans or "M4A"

Also does ANY democratic candidate outside of maybe Yang thinks that less market regulations = more freedom?

I Don't Like · Nov 17, 2019

Bootyjeep sucks

Slayven · Nov 17, 2019

Sweeney Swift said:
This has been the dominant thought/most likely outcome since Election Day 2016 officially ended, and nothing that's happened since has done shit to erase, or provide contrary evidence to, that real and increasingly growing concern. If anything our side has become more complacent now than we were August 2016, thinking it's in the bag and there's No Way he can win (again)

Nah, it's shit people keep repeating instead of actually keeping up with things. Louisiana just had record democrat turn out for off year election. That follows record turn out in 2018 and every election since then has been a real fight. Which historically it shouldn't because democrats only suppose to turn out for the president. It's find to be concern, but folks jump into shit saying "Trump is getting releelcted" when folks are discussing the weather. It's defeatism at best, trolling at worse

Steel · Nov 17, 2019

Full stop this is about name rec. Pete made bank in fundraising. Barely anyone in the party knew who he was a month ago. He bombs that money on New Hampshire and Iowa and grinds up his name rec? Well, now more people are willling to vote for him because they know he exists.

Of course, if he was already at 90+% name rec, this would be meaningless. But he's not. So he has room to grow.

Masterz1337 · Nov 17, 2019

Psychoward said:
And this is where you lost me

He served overseas and isn't nearly critical enough of the US military/military industrial complex. I get that shitting on the military isn't exactly a great campaign strategy but he's failed to do the bare minimum and has shown a shocking lack of empathy towards why people hate the US military. I mean for fuck's sake

And Medicare for all who want it is universal healthcare sure and I think that's the only feasible starting scenario because we're not getting single payer in 2020, but it's not the same thing as Bernie or Warren's plans or "M4A"

Also does ANY democratic candidate outside of maybe Yang thinks that less market regulations = more freedom?

There are plenty good reason for not wanting a Bernie/Warren style M4A, both practical and political. His plan is more transitionary, and thats why it gets better received by people weary of a M4A. Personally, I am not eager to see people's health insurance be gambled by a revolutionary new system in this country. Look how bad Obamas "you can keep your doctor" backfired and handed so many states over to the republicans. I like broad systematic change, but there's some stuff that many of us do not want to gamble with.

I don't see really anything wrong with the way he has talked about the military, I'm not exactly for shitting on the people who serve either, ultimately what they do is largely decided by the commander in chief. His military stance and position is EXTREMELY damaging to Trump more so than any other Dem, and his primary rhetoric will ultimately hurt Trump in the general, regardless of if he is on the ticket in any form. I view him a more powerful ally to attack Trump's fitness to lead the military then he could possibly be against the complex. Keep in mind, eroding Trump's military support especially among fans of the military in more conservative parts of the country is a win for the country as a whole. It's also an avenue where he can be as vicious as he wants and with complete credibility without Trump being able to respond to said criticisms.

CelestialAtom · Nov 17, 2019

Thunder11 said:
This forum hates this guy

Once Pete started working with Democratic leaders to deal with Bernie, I lost all respect for him. NYT Article

Working with the party Centrists to stomp out Progressives is something I can't get behind.

Kyra · Nov 17, 2019

I feel like he loses hard to Trump. I just dont see it.

bazzi · Nov 17, 2019

Officer Big Mac said:
I figured he was a bottom.

This is clearly evidence that he's vers

Lol at people's reactions to you they crazy

moblin · Nov 17, 2019

This is part of why "should Iowa be first given its lack of diversity?" is a good question to ask candidates, and one that deserves an honest answer instead of a brush-off.

Ionic · Nov 17, 2019

Gwenpoolshark said:
"This is designed to be one of the most U S E R F R I E N D L Y small cities in America."

CURSED

Alright, I know this is a hokey jokey video, but watching it I have to ask how do we still have people on this forum who don't like Bernie, but do like other candidates in this election? Who the heck throws under the bus the guy who has since like, before the 90's, been talking about class consciousness, housing discrimination, and the negative consequences US forces have caused in nations all over the world?

Bitch Pudding · Nov 17, 2019

Josh5890 said:
The majority here are Warren/Sanders or bust.

Yeah, let's never forget that Americans on Resetera do by no means represent American voting behavior. It's good that the echo chamber here bursts sometimes by news like that.

SurrenderDorothy · Nov 17, 2019

Pete may as well be a republican. This sucks.

Steel · Nov 17, 2019

SurrenderDorothy said:
Pete may as well be a republican. This sucks.

Why do people have to say ridiculous things like this? Like there's a ton of room to attack the guy, but, really? Just no.

Jimrpg · Nov 17, 2019

He'd getting totally schooled by Trump.

How likely is this 16% rise, seems like a lot in such a short time. He was single digits a month ago.

SurrenderDorothy · Nov 17, 2019

Steel said:
Why do people have to say ridiculous things like this? Like there's a ton of room to attack the guy, but, really? Just no.

You're right, he's a dirty racist-enabling liberal.

supra · Nov 17, 2019

Steel said:
Why do people have to say ridiculous things like this? Like there's a ton of room to attack the guy, but, really? Just no.

People say this because they constantly take democratic plans people like, needlessly compromise it down with republicans in their own head, and present it as something they think makes them more "electable." Whatever that means.

You don't turnout more nonvoters as a Democrat by becoming more like a Republican.

Nocturnal · Nov 17, 2019

Nocturnal said:
Just look at the cash trail, big money going for Pete; Biden lacking traction with grassroots; Biden slumping in NH, Iowa and Nevada; Biden having cash on hand problems; Biden needing to do big money fundraisers on the coasts rather than campaign in early primary states; Pete probably starting to eat away from his support; Biden is trending downward and it's looking like he is making his stand in SC.

There was a breakdown of Pete's spending a month ago:

I said it a long time ago Biden will end up 3-4th place in Iowa and New Hampshire which will deflate his support in Nevada and South Carolina.
Pete's rise is good because it allows for either Warren or Sanders to consolidate some of the support from Biden(who are only supporting him because he is "electable"). Sanders has consistently had 15-25% in the first three states(Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada). Warren is doing well focusing on her operations and not spending a huge amount at the moment.
People on here still thinking Biden has a path, he doesn't! When he loses all three early contests and ends up winning SC by a small margin his campaign is not geared for Super Tuesday. He basically won't have money to compete in California and Texas which make up more than 50% of delegates during Super Tuesday.

People said " I think people highly overestimate the effect cash has on votes for people with near 100% name rec. But we'll see. ", yet a guy with 100% name rec aka Biden, is losing a fuck ton of support due to Pete being able to pump millions into Iowa, New Hampshire.

Keep thinking that, you can quote me in a few months if I'm wrong but just look at cash-on-hand, small money donations, campaign staff, volunteer network, union endorsements and actual enthusiasm. As Biden has to spend time with big money donors to keep his campaign respectable, so instead of campaigning in Iowa, NH and NV he will have to go to the coasts.
Really expensive primaries like NY and CA roll around - how exactly is Biden going to compete? Unless everyone abandons Pete who has outraised him by a big amount over the last two quarters he doesn't stand a chance. His campaign needs big money donors to continue if this ends up being contested primary between him, Warren and Sanders.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/us...-the-references.147939/page-217#post-26036402

Artdayne · Nov 17, 2019

Ionic said:
Alright, I know this is a hokey jokey video, but watching it I have to ask how do we still have people on this forum who don't like Bernie, but do like other candidates in this election? Who the heck throws under the bus the guy who has since like, before the 90's, been talking about class consciousness, housing discrimination, and the negative consequences US forces have caused in nations all over the world?

Some people will always hold him responsible for Hillary losing the election. Bernie's messaging on minority issues has at times been sketchy but he's generally cleaned a lot of that up and his foreign policy is a lot better too, the best in the race.

Nocturnal · Nov 17, 2019

Seems only Sanders is stable, things can change a lot in the next few months for Pete, Warren and Biden

Following the same trend we seen in other polls, well over 50% of Sanders voters have their mind made up and little over 50% are excited about his campaign. Him now starting his assault on mass media via his 30 million investment in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and California will begin to bear fruit in the coming months. With TV Ads he is targeting older voters who right now are split between Biden/Warren/Pete across the 4 early states. His operation is already the biggest in Nevada & California and he has had a few key union endorsements there the last week. He already has the most staff in Nevada & California and his campaign has the pulse of Latino voters with key endorsement, great policies that are resonating and support from AOC.
I do think he should also start investing into Texas, now that Beto has dropped out.

Sanders' supporters are least likely of frontrunners' supporters to say they could be persuaded to vote for someone else in the Feb. 3, 2020, caucuses. Of likely Democratic caucusgoers who say Sanders is their top choice, 57% say their mind is made up; none of other top candidates cracks 30% in that metric.

A majority also are skeptical that he could unseat President Donald Trump. But the Vermont senator leads the other top-polling candidates in terms of supporters who are extremely enthusiastic about his bid to win the Democratic nomination (51%).

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/st...n-pete-buttigieg-latest-iowa-poll/4194695002/

Sen. Bernie Sanders's campaign plans to spend more than $30 million on TV ads in early 2020 states

Sanders's campaign also plans to put tens of millions more toward TV ads between now and March in key states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, as well as California, according to the Times.

"He brings regular people into the process who are not currently participating," Sanders adviser and TV strategist Jeff Weaver told the Times. "You need to be reaching people in a nonpolitical space. To find people who are not going to caucus, you have to be in spaces where they are, and that's on television."

Bernie Sanders makes big investment in California ground game,

The Vermont senator's campaign has opened five offices in California — far more than top rivals Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, who have two each, and former Vice President Joe Biden, who hasn't opened one. Sanders' staff says they plan to set up at least 10 more offices by the end of the year and already have hired 40 full-time paid staffers in the state.

"We're going to be running a ground game up and down the state of California like we're Iowa," said Jane Kim, Sanders' California political director, in an interview at the opening party for the campaign's new San Francisco office on Thursday. "We already have the biggest organization here, and it's going to exponentially grow."

GamerJM · Nov 17, 2019

Officer Big Mac said:
I figured he was a bottom.

Let's be real, he's clearly an extremely boring "no fats, no femmes" top.

Boiled Goose · Nov 17, 2019

Dr. Feel Good said:
The hate for him here is over exaggerated. His attacks on Warren make him an asshole but his shift in tone to centrism is solely for this purpose to gain traction. He's as liberal as most. He's attacking M4A because it's a anchor on other candidates, but his view on climate change and reform will certainly shift left.

yes it sucks he has little to no meaningful politicial experience but he's not some complete waste of space. This forum loves to feather and tar for minor reasons so expect this thread to be filled with over dramatic bullshit.

Changing your views for political angles is exactly what people hate

Pete Buttigieg rising to the top in Iowa polls

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