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Perhaps against my better judgement, I have placed a $4000 bet on Joe Biden to win the 2020 elections.

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Eoin

Eoin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,103
Piston said:
If you stand to win more than 800, I probably would take that bet. I can't imagine you got much better than a 1:5 from a bookie.
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There's plenty of bookies offering much better odds than that.

Fractional format, but presumably you can follow those - bet365 have Biden at 1/2. Paddy Power have him at 2/5. Betfred have him at 8/15. Other places have similar kinds of odds - some of them are at 4/9 or 4/11. Pretty much anywhere that someone places a US$4000 bet, they'd be getting better than a US$800 profit.
 
TheOMan

TheOMan

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
7,121
DGP said:
I am not American.

Good luck America.

Edit: Apologies for not adding in details.

I placed it across several different Sportsbooks but the breakdown works out like this

$1500 at -192

$750 at -162

$2000 at -180

$750 - at -180
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What are the conditions around payout? Is it just as simple as Biden becomes President in January?
 

Deleted member 9972

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684
Trump NO is a huge bargin on PredictIt. I don't think I've seen a mismatch that large since Macron in France was leading by 30+ in the polls but was only 80c on PredictIt. Only bet what you can afford to lose, but this is a rare instance where your expected return is greater than 0, so I say if you are fortunate to have the income to spend, then go for it.
 
Piston

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,164
Eoin said:
There's plenty of bookies offering much better odds than that.

Fractional format, but presumably you can follow those - bet365 have Biden at 1/2. Paddy Power have him at 2/5. Betfred have him at 8/15. Other places have similar kinds of odds - some of them are at 4/9 or 4/11. Pretty much anywhere that someone places a US$4000 bet, they'd be getting better than a US$800 profit.
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Yeah, I just looked into it and that surprises me. I guess they are accounting for other fuckery. Most election models give a much better chance than what the betting odds are at there.
TheChocoboCadet said:
Trump NO is a huge bargin on PredictIt. I don't think I've seen a mismatch that large since Macron in France was leading by 30+ in the polls but was only 80c on PredictIt. Only bet what you can afford to lose, but this is a rare instance where your expected return is greater than 0, so I say if you are fortunate to have the income to spend, then go for it.
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They stopped taking direct presidential odds on 10/19 according to their website. Not sure why.
 
Wamapoke

Wamapoke

Member
Apr 11, 2018
2,726
I'm in same boat as you OP. Around £2.5k wagered to win somewhere around £1.8k.

Still great value at 1.5 (-200) compared to what polling is indicating.
 
painey

painey

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,617
I have a bunch on Biden. I got even money in August and now the odds aren't worth putting any more on.
 
greengr

greengr

Member
Dec 3, 2018
2,710
JFC man swing states are still too close to bet that amount of money for the outcome theres a reason Obama campaigning in Pennsylvania
 
Smokeymicpot

Smokeymicpot

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,839
I will probably put 20 on Trump to win sometime this weekend. At +145 on one book I can see it going a little higher after the debate.
 
OP
OP

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TheChocoboCadet said:
Trump NO is a huge bargin on PredictIt. I don't think I've seen a mismatch that large since Macron in France was leading by 30+ in the polls but was only 80c on PredictIt. Only bet what you can afford to lose, but this is a rare instance where your expected return is greater than 0, so I say if you are fortunate to have the income to spend, then go for it.
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This was my thinking as well. There's a ton of action on both candidates right now which means the bookies are setting them at much closer than what it's actually is.
 
RiOrius

RiOrius

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,080
poindexter said:
Uh, why not just vote?
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I'm seriously baffled by this question. Why would they be mutually exclusive? If anything they're complementary: the more financially invested someone is in the outcome, the more likely they are to vote. And of course, the fact that someone has voted doesn't at all preclude betting: the benefits of betting should be obvious (potential financial gains, and it sounds like OP's odds are pretty good ).

Like, in what world does someone bet on the outcome of a contest and then not take simple steps to influence that contest (if they're eligible; OP apparently isn't)? What's your thought process here?
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 1659

User requested account closure
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1,191
RiOrius said:
I'm seriously baffled by this question. Why would they be mutually exclusive? If anything they're complementary: the more financially invested someone is in the outcome, the more likely they are to vote. And of course, the fact that someone has voted doesn't at all preclude betting: the benefits of betting should be obvious (potential financial gains, and it sounds like OP's odds are pretty good ).

Like, in what world does someone bet on the outcome of a contest and then not take simple steps to influence that contest (if they're eligible; OP apparently isn't)? What's your thought process here?
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I have a feeling this person checked the fuck out of this thread once they realized they couldn't snark.
 
out_of_touch

out_of_touch

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,684
RiOrius said:
I'm seriously baffled by this question. Why would they be mutually exclusive? If anything they're complementary: the more financially invested someone is in the outcome, the more likely they are to vote. And of course, the fact that someone has voted doesn't at all preclude betting: the benefits of betting should be obvious (potential financial gains, and it sounds like OP's odds are pretty good ).

Like, in what world does someone bet on the outcome of a contest and then not take simple steps to influence that contest (if they're eligible; OP apparently isn't)? What's your thought process here?
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You can still vote while not being American, by voting with your heart. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
TorianElecdra

TorianElecdra

Member
Feb 25, 2020
2,510
I would put a penny on this race tbh.

I still think it can go either way, specially with how uncomfortably close PA and FL are.
 
JahIthBer

JahIthBer

Member
Jan 27, 2018
10,382
I knew a guy who put like $1000 on Hillary, odds were not great i believe but he thought it was a sure thing, yeah gambling is good fun isn't it.
Tbh i might have put money on Hillary too, not 100% on Biden though, a lot of election fuckery.
 
CountAntonio

CountAntonio

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,715
DaVw.gif
 
rsfour

rsfour

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,767
Reckheim said:
I wonder what the odds were on trump back in 2016. Some people must of made bank.

Edit:

Allrite, I made some research.

https://money.cnn.com/2016/11/09/news/betting-election-donald-trump-win/index.html
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This piece of shit motherfucker

"[Trump] was actually articulating some of the very real concerns that America had," he said.


"I don't care about the money. I care about the fact that this candidate has done something that this world really really really needed."
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Vylder

Vylder

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,256
I'm seriously considering betting on Trump but I'm not sure how to feel about that
 
Bobson Dugnutt

Bobson Dugnutt

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,052
This is why you don't bet on the outcome you want to happen. It's terrible if it loses. I got good money on trump 2016 and Brexit. After that I felt corroded do didn't bother.
 
Josh5890

Josh5890

I'm Your Favorite Poster's Favorite Poster
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
23,212
If my math is correct, you are looking at approx $2,772 in winnings.
 
greengr

greengr

Member
Dec 3, 2018
2,710
Yeah lets bet serious money on an election which its outcome depends largely on Florida what could go wrong lmao
 
ArjanN

ArjanN

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,113
Bobson Dugnutt said:
This is why you don't bet on the outcome you want to happen. It's terrible if it loses. I got good money on trump 2016 and Brexit. After that I felt corroded do didn't bother.
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The problem with that logic is that Trump is going to lose. I get that 2016 made people really skittish about polling/calling the election, but if we're being real I don't think Trump has a real chance of winning at this point, outside of Biden collapsing tomorrow, and even then.
 
Lion

Lion

Banned
Jul 7, 2020
593
lt519 said:
Negative numbers mean you have to bet that much to win $100 and positive numbers mean if you bet $100 you win that much. i.e. a -180 line means you have to bet $180 to win $100 and a +180 line means you have to bet $100 to win $180. So they stand to win ~$2771. Usually a 50/50 chance of something occuring is placed at -110 because the house (sports book) takes a cut.
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I have never seen odds quoted like that. I'm used to 2:1, 5:2 etc where do they quote odds like this?
 
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