For more than 12 hours now, my Wii U has been silently running underneath my desk. I'm not holding the controller, or taking note of what's happening, but my Wii U is currently vying for a lottery ticket buried in Super Mario Maker, with a one in 7.5 million chance of it appearing. My reward? Beating a level that never requires the player to touch a button and yet, as of now, it's been attempted more than 2.6 million times—and no one's made it to the end.
In Lucky Draw, Mario cannot move. He can't jump, run, or spin through the air, skills typically asked of a player controlling Mario and trying to get him to the end. In this nightmarish puzzle box, all he's tasked with is standing still and hoping for the best. More than likely, though, he's going to die. You're supposed to die. Lucky Draw is part of a wider subset of quirky Super Mario Maker levels called RNG (random number generator), where success is determined by a roll of the dice, of random 1s and 0s, and nothing to do with player ability.
"The average failed attempt at the level takes 6.9 seconds, giving a single Wii U about 12.5K attempts per day. The probability of beating the level in one day, then? 0.17%. Ouch.
Want a 50-50 chance of beating it? Start the level, put your Wii U aside, and check it around the 4th of July -- next year. Want a 90% chance of clearing it? Start the level and hope you make it to February 2023 without any power outages.
Instead of time, you could use teamwork. Running 10 systems for 1 day has the same chance of producing a win as running 1 system for 10 days. For a fitting deadline, try to beat the level before SMM2 comes out.
For a 90% chance of beating the level before SMM2, you'd need to run 47 consoles, 24/7, giving you a throughput of almost 7 level attempts per second. For perspective, that many systems combined draw more power than the average American household."
A neat bit of work if you are RNG/statistically inclined.
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