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May 9, 2018
3,600



For more than 12 hours now, my Wii U has been silently running underneath my desk. I'm not holding the controller, or taking note of what's happening, but my Wii U is currently vying for a lottery ticket buried in Super Mario Maker, with a one in 7.5 million chance of it appearing. My reward? Beating a level that never requires the player to touch a button and yet, as of now, it's been attempted more than 2.6 million times—and no one's made it to the end.

In Lucky Draw, Mario cannot move. He can't jump, run, or spin through the air, skills typically asked of a player controlling Mario and trying to get him to the end. In this nightmarish puzzle box, all he's tasked with is standing still and hoping for the best. More than likely, though, he's going to die. You're supposed to die. Lucky Draw is part of a wider subset of quirky Super Mario Maker levels called RNG (random number generator), where success is determined by a roll of the dice, of random 1s and 0s, and nothing to do with player ability.

"The average failed attempt at the level takes 6.9 seconds, giving a single Wii U about 12.5K attempts per day. The probability of beating the level in one day, then? 0.17%. Ouch.

Want a 50-50 chance of beating it? Start the level, put your Wii U aside, and check it around the 4th of July -- next year. Want a 90% chance of clearing it? Start the level and hope you make it to February 2023 without any power outages.

Instead of time, you could use teamwork. Running 10 systems for 1 day has the same chance of producing a win as running 1 system for 10 days. For a fitting deadline, try to beat the level before SMM2 comes out.

For a 90% chance of beating the level before SMM2, you'd need to run 47 consoles, 24/7, giving you a throughput of almost 7 level attempts per second. For perspective, that many systems combined draw more power than the average American household."

A neat bit of work if you are RNG/statistically inclined.
 
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Xyer

Avenger
Aug 26, 2018
7,323
Really hope Patrick does some daily MM levels when 2 comes out. That was a great series when he conquered hard levels.
 

Kuroyume

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,910
Going to do wonders for the energy conservation movement. Good reporting Klepek. Well done.
 

Deleted member 36578

Dec 21, 2017
26,561
How did this level get uploaded? Lol!
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Yeah how on earth did the creator beat this in order to upload it?

I wonder if there's some secret workaround he managed to get in there.
 

PsionBolt

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,298
Huh, wow. I assumed it'd be using something like the lanky Mario trick (where the weird mushrooms that turn you into lanky Mario can spawn randomly for players, but never spawn for the uploader, so you can pelt players with mushrooms and make the level unclearable for lanky Mario to get a ridiculously low clear chance), but it really is pure RNG even on the uploader's part? That's quite some dedication.
 

Sandstar

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,737
I thought you had to beat a mario maker level yourself in order for your level to go public?
 

Bufbaf

Don't F5!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,635
Hamburg, Germany
Patrick, as a MM noob but video watcher, what's the deal with the Magikoopas spawning coins and why does Mario have to collect them when spawning to the right? Also, where's the level finish line?

My thoughts were the coins wouldn't activate the note blocks, but that seems to be wrong, I'm missing something on this level :D
 

Patrick Klepek

Editor at Remap, Crossplay
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
669
Near Chicago
Patrick, as a MM noob but video watcher, what's the deal with the Magikoopas spawning coins and why does Mario have to collect them when spawning to the right? Also, where's the level finish line?

My thoughts were the coins wouldn't activate the note blocks, but that seems to be wrong, I'm missing something on this level :D
I could be wrong here, but my understanding is the coins aren't necessary to beat the stage, technically—it's not like there's a bank at the end. But if a coin doesn't spawn, whatever else does will prompt you to die.
 

Bufbaf

Don't F5!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,635
Hamburg, Germany
I could be wrong here, but my understanding is the coins aren't necessary to beat the stage, technically—it's not like there's a bank at the end. But if a coin doesn't spawn, whatever else does will prompt you to die.
Gotcha! That's how I understood it from watching as well.

Man I hope I'll be motivated enough to join the MM fun with the Switch version :D
 

pikachief

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,518
I could be wrong here, but my understanding is the coins aren't necessary to beat the stage, technically—it's not like there's a bank at the end. But if a coin doesn't spawn, whatever else does will prompt you to die.

On the bottom left stream in the clip you can see all 6 blocks turn into coins but one hits a noteblock and activates the p-switch. It needs to spawn all 6 coins and they all need to bounce back towards the magikoopa.
 

ArjanN

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,103
They also could have hidden a secret for themselves to complete the level, a hidden door or something that triggers a hidden door to the ending right?

Pretty sure you can go in the editor and see how other people's levels are made to see where hidden stuff is. Also hidden blocks are probably going to be found easier anyway than someone beating a super hard level, there's only so many ways you can hide stuff in MM.

Either the creator got lucky with RNG or he cheated or something.
 

Ravelle

Member
Oct 31, 2017
17,762
Pretty sure you can go in the editor and see how other people's levels are made to see where hidden stuff is. Also hidden blocks are probably going to be found easier anyway than someone beating a super hard level, there's only so many ways you can hide stuff in MM.

Either the creator got lucky with RNG or he cheated or something.

Aha I didn't know you could also see others levels in the editor, there should be a trick though, unless the creator spent like an eternity in a hyperbolic time chamber endlessly trying his own level.
 

Xwing

Unshakable Resolve - One Winged Slayer
Member
Nov 11, 2017
9,873
Someone should find and interview the creator and find out how long his Wii U had to run in order for the level to be uploaded in the first place.
 

Thac

The Fallen
Nov 1, 2017
387
Watching the stream... I don't understand what Mario is dying to?
When a magikoopa hits a coinblock it can spawn either random enemies or coins or powerups. When the "thing" spawns and goes left it'll hit a noteblock with makes a muncher hit a p-switch, changing all of the blocks mario is riding on into coins and dropping him to his death.

To clear it, all of the 6 blocks have to turn into coins and the coins need to go right. Since enemies don't occupy the same space they can only go left and hit the noteblock but coins and enemies can occupy the same space so it would give Mario long enough to be ferried to the end before eventually having the momentum to hit the noteblock.
 
OP
OP
May 9, 2018
3,600
So I did the math and the odds of the original uploader completing it successfully on a single machine in 2 weeks is... 2.3%.

In R, pgeom(60*60*24*7*2/6.9, 1/((7*2)^6))
 

Patrick Klepek

Editor at Remap, Crossplay
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
669
Near Chicago
Man, MM levels have gotten really weird.

Nice!

On a related note, did you ever go back and beat that Dan level?

Haha, no. My ability to complete those levels vanishes the moment the machine is powered off. I'm not even sure what I'll be playing on with Switch...I guess I need to buy a Pro controller? I became oddly attached to the Wii U GamePad, to the point that I didn't trust other controllers.
 

Chopchop

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,171
cant wait for you and Dan to go head to head again, this time he can be even meaner.
... How?

Oh wait. He could put one of these RNG deathtraps at the end of one of his levels...
So I did the math and the odds of the original uploader completing it successfully on a single machine in 2 weeks is... 2.3%.

In R, pgeom(60*60*24*7*2/6.9, 1/((7*2)^6))
That's not as low as I thought it would be.
Haha, no. My ability to complete those levels vanishes the moment the machine is powered off. I'm not even sure what I'll be playing on with Switch...I guess I need to buy a Pro controller? I became oddly attached to the Wii U GamePad, to the point that I didn't trust other controllers.
Maybe you'll go through the same process with the joycons. I play my Switch in portable mode most of the time, and I've gotten so used to the joycons that I usually forget it doesn't have a real D-pad.
 

TreeMePls

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,258
Theoretically it could easily get worse


Basically you spend 6 hours going through pipes in order to not get hit by munchers then after that you enter an rng area that has a 8.6 x10^-16 chance of letting you win
 
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