Voting early on October 6th (Indiana). Can't wait. My vote won't really matter in this reddest of Red States, but I don't care.
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OP
OP
Insane amount of mail in ballots.
also in reporting states it gets wilder.
43.4% of 46 million balllots are democrats
vs
26.1% republicans
and 26.7 % are unaffiliated.
this election turnout is going to be massive.
Based on how many people intend to vote in person vs by mail, and poll averages, I wonder if we could make a rough estimate of how many votes to expect.
if turnout is over 60%, then about 150 million?
edit: i was close.
turnout in 2016 was 55.5%.
estimations of voting age population in 2019 was 255 million:
if turnout is like 2008, which was the highest turnout for a us presidential election since 1968 (which in turn was the last time it hit 60%), then based on 2008 turnout that would be 145 million votes. 58.8% would be required for 150 million overall.
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please shine your light on me
Sounds like sweet freedom to me, professor! Clock is ticking.
I like to stay positive sometimes (yeah even in the year of our lord 2020). I can't help but wonder if Trump could end up having the biggest loss in US Election history, at least on the pop vote side.
I know full well that the electoral college could screw us again but man It would be great to know that more than half of the country hasn't lost their goddamn minds yet (glass half full).
I know full well that the electoral college could screw us again but man It would be great to know that more than half of the country hasn't lost their goddamn minds yet (glass half full).
I have a feeling that the pollsters have their models of the electorate wrong again. But this time, they're underestimating how badly we want Trump gone. He's going to lose in a landslide. Fuck him, fuck the GOP, and all their anti-Democratic, fascist bullshit. Let this be the beginning of the end of their shit party.
Everyone do your part!
Everyone do your part!
Dropped off my wife's and my absentee ballots today during a democracy in the park event here in Madison. All city parks had election workers registering people to vote or accepting absentee ballots. Not trusting the mail.
if it's Biden +7 and everything's roughly accurate, then... national votes maybe sorta kinda look like...?
Biden 74,400,000
Trump 64,200,000
Jorgensen 3,900,000
Hawkins 1,500,000
OP
OP
Well we have a number of likely voters at based on mail in at 63,978,880
total votes cast in 2016 was 136,639,786
So I think we might get more turn out than that if this is how things are looking now.
I truly hope you're right. But I'm still worried just how stupid the masses are.
a ten million biden win seems about right. at this stage i think trump probably just does a bit worse than his 2016 results, losing a point from his 46% and biden generally gaining from johnson and stein. 53-45-2 based on 2008 turnout would be:
biden: 76,850,000
trump: 65,250,000
third-party: 2,900,000
OP
OP
Wisconsin is a huge key. In 2016 Clinton got 7.7 %less votes and lost by .08% and Wisconsin had 3% less turn out. If turn out is anything like 2012. There is almost no way trump wins your state.
more info here.
AniHawk check this link out. The numbers in key swim states are kind of insane to see just how close and just how depressed dem turnout was. Anything reaches 2012 it's a w.
2016 National Popular Vote Tracker - Google Drive
I hope so, because I'm terrified of how polls are indicating the election is going to go based on what I've seen, and how it's going to feed directly into Trump's BS narrative about election fraud. I think a constitutional crisis is all but guaranteed, but much worse is very possible unless he gets crushed by a massive landslide.
Me and my entire family are waiting on our ballots to come here in Florida. Can't wait to vote the orange shitstain out.
As a percentage, it's not possible. As a raw vote difference, it might be, but even that is a pretty big stretch. Trump's floor is probably not much below 60 million votes.
If you believe the polls as they've stood the last few weeks, Biden will win comfortably and bring the Senate with him.
Vote anyway.
OP
OP
Don't be terrified. all of this is great news.
also. Let me give you some perspective on how razor thin 2016 was and much due to stronger 3rd party votes and low enthusiasm for clinton
she lost
MI by .2%
WIS by .8%
PA by .7%
we don't have those factors this election and this level of enthusiasm mans this shit should be pretty damn good overall for a Biden win. Especially with how well he's doing in Arizona.
Trump and the GOP know how likely they are to lose. That's why they've resorted to making a full-out attack on the ability to vote their main strategy.
Simply put, relying on the stupidity (and hate, and fear) of the masses, their normal go-to strategy, is simply not nearly enough to win this time.
4 years of this BS and that man is gonna get 60m to vote for him again. Absolutely insane.
OP
OP
4 years of this BS and that man is gonna get 60m to vote for him again. Absolutely insane.
Herbert Hoover got nearly 40% of the vote in 1932.
4 years of this BS and that man is gonna get 60m to vote for him again. Absolutely insanity.
Roughly 1/4 to 1/3 of the population is unshakable. Yeah.
It ain't great. Even if we win, we gotta live with that many people ready to chuck society into the meat grinder and live by the Code of Hammurabi as our shining beacon.
4 years of this BS and that man is gonna get 60m to vote for him again. Absolutely insane.
fewer than 60m can turn out for him if the results are less than 41.3% based on 2008's turnout. his approval has dipped below that, but trump's been polling and his approval has been around 43% nationally for the last couple of months. so the only way 43% translates into less than 60m is if turnout is like 2016 - in which case, it would mean depressed turnout for trump voters.
I read that they're going out here in Florida but we haven't got ours yet. I requested mine back in June. When I go to track my ballot it just shows up as "requested" for now. Getting worried :(
I'm in Seminole County.
4 years of this BS and that man is gonna get 60m to vote for him again. Absolutely insane.
Maybe a bit less? McCain got 59 million, when the GOP was in the doghouse after Bush's fuckups. I could see Trump getting fewer than that. I doubt sub-55 is possible, though.
Got my ballot on Saturday (a week ago). I got my witness to sign on Monday and dropped it into the box on Tuesday the 22nd.
Dumb question - if you send in a mail-ballot within the next few weeks, is it pretty much guaranteed to be counted by the end of Election Day? Or do states not start counting ANY mail-in ballots until November 3rd? If the latter is true, I guess there really is a chance we won't know the results until a few days after the election.
Just checked and they sent mine out on the 24th. I can't remember when I requested for vote by mail, but here's to hoping they'll dispatch yours soon!
I'm in Broward for what it's worth.
OP
OP
depr on the state. Some count as soon as Election Day opens some on receipt.
Whenever voter turnout is high, Republicans lose. That's why Trump is trying and flailing hard to try and prevent this from happening (mucking up the USPS, ramming a SC nomination). He's knows he's losing.
Thanks. God, I hope we know the results by election night! Going to be the most stressful week EVER otherwise.
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