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dom

▲ Legend ▲
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,438
I don't know how that list works but Outriders definitly underperformed on Xbox at retail because it is on GamePass. Demonstration below for the UK.

Of course, we're gonna need more examples of AAA games releasing day one on Game Pass to see if there is a solid pattern, but Outriders is under 20% for a reason, wouldn't you think ?


That's JRPG Worldwide numbers split but with a far more favorable market and type of game.
83:17
 

TechnicPuppet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
10,808
I have no issue with GP killing game sales. It's the whole point of the service. We all pay into a pot to get a shared copy of lots of games.

The bigger it gets the more it will kill upfront sales. The numbers now are largely meaningless for us as enthusiasts.

For the dev/publisher they, before release got a guaranteed wack of cash + a lot of publicity + goodwill + a guaranteed increased userbase and they lost x amount of upfront sales.

They are the only people who can run the math on that one but I'll take a guess they are fucking delighted.
 

pappacone

Member
Jan 10, 2020
3,139
it's literally number one
let's assume the chart is actually about top selling games, it being number one does not say how many copies it actually sold. It can be #1 with 500k copies sold, for example.
if it sold 2 million copies on PS that the ratios would demonstrate that it being on GP day one impacted the sales. Looking at the UK ratios I think the gap could be even bigger than my example
 

BitterFig

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,099
What? How did you infer I said this, which I'm obviously not saying? :)
Well you stated that this is proof that Gamepass does not kill sales. What does this mean? If you meant people that don't have Gamepass are still buying games, duh isn't this obvious? If you want to show that people having Gamepass are still buying games that already are on Gamepass, then this chart hardly shows any of this. Xbox sold north of 50 millions and there are less than 20 million Gamepass subscribers. And I'm not even counting Gamepass PC or the fact that Microsoft Store might track the Windows Store on PC (not sure about this one), both increasing the number of customers that still buy games in the traditional way and do not use Gamepass currently.

In the past, we have seen small indy games benefit from the exposure of being on Gamepass. This I can totally see. For bigger games and especially during launch window I have a hard time believing people on Gamepass are still buying games on game pass almost day one. That makes absolutely no sense lol. The little data we have suggests completely otherwise (Outriders, a shooter, having <17% market share of physical game sales in the UK). MAYBE, you can make a case for third party games that stay on the service a short enough time, that have a lot of replayability (e.g. a GaaS game) will recoup some lost after they leave the service, sure. And perhaps these sales would have been less had it not launch on Gamepass, sure. But here, it's just a bad example. Outriders just launched. It would be insane if it's sold more than if it was not on Gamepass at this stage.
 

BitterFig

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,099
I don't think the point is that the people that have it on Gamepass also bought it, but that even being on Gamepass the games still sell well.
If you're not making the point that the people that have it on Gamepass also bought it, what point are you making? That people not on Gamepass are still buying games (duh)? That Gamepass users are a minority of Xbox users that still buy games in the traditional way (duh)? Or that Gamepass is a great marketing tool (a bit more interesting)?
 

lunanto

Banned
Dec 1, 2017
7,648
Do you really think the people buying the game don´t know Game Pass exists and Outriders is launching on it?

That people, instead of playing the game on the service still prefer to buy it.

Conclusion: Game Pass doesn´t kill sales.

I mean, it shouldn´t be that hard to understand.
 

Patitoloco

Member
Oct 27, 2017
23,613
If you're not making the point that the people that have it on Gamepass also bought it, what point are you making? That people not on Gamepass are still buying games (duh)? That Gamepass users are a minority of Xbox users that still buy games in the traditional way (duh)? Or that Gamepass is a great marketing tool (a bit more interesting)?
All three, yes! Like you said, I felt it's obvious, but I'm not OP
 

BitterFig

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,099
Yes, fewer people will buy it at launch because of Game Pass. The idea is that it's the WoM of people playing it, seeing it on friends lists etc, that helps drive sales after launch, that would be pretty difficult for Game Pass to do before launch no? And it won't be on Game Pass forever.
Yeah this makes sense to me but then it would only work for certain type of games (e.g GaaS)
 

Nugnip

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,744
It's pretty impressive, but also there isn't a ton of other releases. It holds that spot against an 8 year old game (a monster, but still), and a coop only game. I'd be curious to see actual sales figures.
 

ClamBuster

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,091
Ipswich, England
there are people out there who absolutely must own what they spend their money on... i commend it, it's not my model... but this trend is real and it's still going strong
 

GamingCJ

Member
Apr 14, 2019
1,907
User Banned (1 Day): Platform Warring
Well it's easy to reach #1 (assuming this even is an accurate ranking), when full game sales are generally low.
 

ghostcrew

The Shrouded Ghost
Administrator
Oct 27, 2017
30,349
Where does it say it's number one? None of them are numbered. Just because it's first in the list means nothing. As I said previously, online stores curate these pages to show products they want to promote. I work for an online store and we do exactly this.

That's not how these lists work. Xbox has a ton of charts that you can view. Top Played (which is listed by games that have the most hours played this week), Top Paid (this one - which is listed by how many copies sold), Top Free (self explanatory) etc.

Also a list of just 'featured games' which is the list you described, where the surface what they want.

This is a chart of the games that sold the most this week, from number 1 to number 90.
 

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,509
This flies in the face of the data we have on the sales of the game from the UK, which makes it hard to take the statistic at face value to be honest. We don't really know what this actually represents numerically, but I guess we can wait to see if quantifiable figures from markets other than the UK paint a different picture.
 

SuikerBrood

Member
Jan 21, 2018
15,487
This flies in the face of the data we have on the sales of the game from the UK, which makes it hard to take the statistic at face value to be honest. We don't really know what this actually represents numerically, but I guess we can wait to see if quantifiable figures from markets other than the UK paint a different picture.

Wasn't UK sales data physical?
 

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,509
Wasn't UK sales data physical?

Yes, I believe we will get a more detailed picture in the next few days but I'm not a sales hawk.

Regardless, it is pretty uncontroversial that there is extremely strong correlation between physical and digital sales numbers. At least in that first few days Outriders sold a far lower proportion on Xbox than you'd expect if it weren't on Game Pass. I'd also see it as a type of game that is a good fit for the traditional Xbox base.
 

Deleted member 39144

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 27, 2018
711
This flies in the face of the data we have on the sales of the game from the UK, which makes it hard to take the statistic at face value to be honest. We don't really know what this actually represents numerically, but I guess we can wait to see if quantifiable figures from markets other than the UK paint a different picture.
Not really. The UK sales data is physical only, whereas this is digital only. Neither show a complete picture.
 

Raigor

Member
May 14, 2020
15,132
Regardless, it is pretty uncontroversial that there is extremely strong correlation between physical and digital sales numbers.

It Takes Two charted outside top 20 counting only physical in the launch week, when digital was factored it jumped into top 10 and we can all see how It Takes Two performed STRONGLY digitally on all platforms; Top 3 in Steam for two weeks in a row, top 3 in PS5 chart for March and currently #3 on Xbox Most Paid list.

Physical sales in the UK proved time and time again to be unreliable when it comes to gauge the actual selling potential of any type of game, extrapolating from the UK sales is always wrong.



 

ghostcrew

The Shrouded Ghost
Administrator
Oct 27, 2017
30,349
Physical sales in the UK proved time and time again to be unreliable when it comes to gauge the actual selling potential of any type of game, extrapolating from the UK sales is always wrong.





Presumably even more so this generation when one of your flagship SKUs (as opposed to the PS5 Digital Edition that they apparently sent about four units of to the UK) can't actually play discs from physical retail. Zero Series S owners are represented in physical sales reports.
 

Alex840

Member
Oct 31, 2017
5,114
It might be, for sure... but we've got It Takes Two up there. Are we saying it's being "most played" than the latest CoD? C'mon. And I highly doubt these lists are just "most downloaded". Makes totally no sense.

I see many people are still willing to dismiss the fact a launch Game Pass game can have good sales too. Does it really sound so weird?

Yeah it is weird. Like I said it may have 'good' sales on Xbox, but good comparative to what? There aren't many other games out lately.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,685
United Kingdom
No surprise it's number one. Not everyone has GamePass and also there's not much else new out right now, so the competition is pretty light at the moment.

They definitely picked a good time to release it, so it seems to be paying off for them, because if it was up against a couple of bigger and better games, it probably wouldn't have been as successful.
 

Morrdji

Alt-Account
Banned
Mar 16, 2021
361
It Takes Two charted outside top 20 counting only physical in the launch week, when digital was factored it jumped into top 10 and we can all see how It Takes Two performed STRONGLY digitally on all platforms; Top 3 in Steam for two weeks in a row, top 3 in PS5 chart for March and currently #3 on Xbox Most Paid list.

Physical sales in the UK proved time and time again to be unreliable when it comes to gauge the actual selling potential of any type of game, extrapolating from the UK sales is always wrong.



Ok you know this is all I need to believe it. These guys know
 

ty_hot

Banned
Dec 14, 2017
7,176
Number one but only god knows how much it sold. In a guessing exercise, GTA V sold 20M last year, half the sales are on fall, then making it 50% PS and 25% PC and Xbox, divided by the other 9 months of the year will give under 250k sales for GTA V in a non-Fall month. Is it a lot?

Another thing is if that list reflect total units sold or the actual U$ they got, Outriders is a 60 dollar game and GTA is constantly on sale (sub 30, on PS at least). I believe it is total units sold, though.

Btw, the whole "you see someone playing a game and then you go and buy it" or "my friends are playing and told me it is great so I bought" only makes sense if you are the kind of customer that is in the "impulse buy" territory… which is the kind of person that I can see subbing to Game Pass, specially because every month this person is likely to see their friends playing a new game and at some point they will end up subbing to Game Pass to keep up with them.

In the ERA bubble there are those that like to own the game, but I doubt anyone will disagree that these are the minority. Has Microsoft ever shown actual numbers of units sold of games that released day one on Game Pass? I know they keep saying publishers are happy, that they sell well but publishers only care about the money, not where it comes from, if MS is paying them a ton of money and they sell a dozen games they dont care. I am not talking about Indie games, btw. Considering how MS is subsidizing Game Pass subs, I doubt they are not paying good money to get great games in the service , which is basically the same thing that Epic does on EGS, eating the loss now so that they can grow their user base and profit in the (distant, for EGS at least) future.
 

Moodz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
352
People on the game enthusiasts Internet overestimate the reach game pass has for now.
It's an obvious choice when you are informed but many people aren't or are against a subscription service, at least from my experience in France.

I know at least 5 people between work and friends who play only on Xbox, are buying stuff like halo and gears etc and don't really know about game pass or don't want if for the moment... 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,509
Not really. The UK sales data is physical only, whereas this is digital only. Neither show a complete picture.

One of them is quantified, one of them is not. Of course neither show a complete picture. But it is obvious which of these two datapoints is more useful.

It Takes Two charted outside top 20 counting only physical in the launch week, when digital was factored it jumped into top 10 and we can all see how It Takes Two performed STRONGLY digitally on all platforms; Top 3 in Steam for two weeks in a row, top 3 in PS5 chart for March and currently #3 on Xbox Most Paid list.

Physical sales in the UK proved time and time again to be unreliable when it comes to gauge the actual selling potential of any type of game, extrapolating from the UK sales is always wrong.

You misunderstand my point. If the ratio of PlayStation:Xbox for a game is very high at physical, a similar ratio will play out digitally. The ratio from that early physical data is nearly 5:1, far higher than the ratio we see with other games. The ratio will not be identical digitally, and it will not be identical in other countries, but the same kind of thing are going to be seen across the board.

---

Being part of Game Pass -clearly- has an effect on sales. More particularly there are a multitude of effects which will vary in significance from game to game. Some of these factors reduce sales, some increase them.

1) People who have Game Pass are much less likely to buy a game that is included within it
2) Inclusion in Game Pass provides a natural awareness boost across all platforms
2.1) That awareness boost hugely benefits games that overwhelm expectations
2.2) But may harm games that underwhelm them in the same way a bad demo can
3) As games leave Game Pass, people that want to keep playing them may buy them
4) People without Game Pass may be encouraged to buy a game based on positive word-of-mouth

The size of these effects is going to scale as the subscriber base does, and I think we'll see the ones that reduce sales will scale faster than the ones that increase them.

For some games, the positive effects can outweigh the negative ones. There are clear cases where this has happened. But for some games they do not, and there are cases of that too. The sales data from the UK we have so far strongly implies this is the case for Outriders and I am confident that data is going to be confirmed by more data as it flows in. I believe as time goes on we will see more and more examples of that and in a couple of years many of you will forget that you ever argued to the contrary.

This is not a criticism of Game Pass. It is not a fundamental flaw. It is something Microsoft will have calculated for and it does not worry them.
 

AppleBlade

Member
Nov 15, 2017
1,711
Connecticut
Yeah, GamePass definitely gave Outriders much more attention. No way in hell would this game have been such a major discussion points on all of my gaming podcast had it not gone to GamePass. Similarly games like Call of the Sea and the Medium would have gone completely overlooked had they not been on GamePass. The key is being on there day 1. The Falconeer for example went to GamePass a few months after release and I don't think that game ever got any coverage because by the time it hit GamePass no one was excited, it was a known quantity.
 

Prine

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,724
Yeah cos a series with as much history as resident evil needs gamepass to succeed.
Odd reply, comment was about maximising exposure, not that the game is entirely dependent on it. No doubt it'll fair better across PC/Xbox if it does come day 1.
 

Lkr

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,506
my understanding of this list has always been non f2p games but not accounting for being "purchased", rather most played retail games
for example gta5 could be back at #2 because it's also on gamepass again, and there is a high player count influx again. doesn't mean that it was the second best selling game recently, just that people are playing it and it's a retail game

this is probably way inaccurate but always how I interpreted it lol
 

sredgrin

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
12,276
It's mad that there was so little hype for this after the demo that they made this deal, and now it's been such a big launch on all systems. The Game pass announcement was a big part of turning that around imo.
There is no way this deal way made after the demo lol. And the demo was incredibly popular, it brought the game into steam top sellers for a month before release
 

Lemony1984

Member
Jul 7, 2020
6,691
There is no way this deal way made after the demo lol. And the demo was incredibly popular, it brought the game into steam top sellers for a month before release
The demo reception was mixed. Check the demo thread here. It's only after the Game pass announcement that things started to turn around hype wise and people gave it a second chance.
 

Prine

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,724
Not really. The UK sales data is physical only, whereas this is digital only. Neither show a complete picture.
Yeah, any statements about a games perf from UK physical sales can be thrown out, it's a poor source to draw anything meaningful from, it's been mentioned time and time again by Zhuge, Mat P etc.
 

Shairi

Member
Aug 27, 2018
8,540
I mean, does that mean what OP thinks it means?

Outriders is a paid-game and not a f2p game. So all gamepass members playing it would also count into this statistic, right?

Not sure what metric they use, but I guess it's played hours.
 

dom

▲ Legend ▲
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,438
Yeah, any statements about a games perf from UK physical sales can be thrown out, it's a poor source to draw anything meaningful from, it's been mentioned time and time again by Zhuge, Mat P etc.
If you think comparing the ratio of physical sales for playstation vs xbox for a genre of game, shooter, and in a market that is favorable to xbox, UK, should be thrown out. Then you should basically be asking for this thread to be closed.
 

ghostcrew

The Shrouded Ghost
Administrator
Oct 27, 2017
30,349
I mean, does that mean what OP thinks it means?

Outriders is a paid-game and not a f2p game. So all gamepass members playing it would also count into this statistic, right?

Not sure what metric they use, but I guess it's played hours.

its a sales chart.

There are seperate charts for hours played ('Top Played'), Outrider is number 3.