Out of 1300 nearby stars, zero showed signs of technologically advanced life.

Taker34 · Jun 26, 2019

When observing planetary objects a bunch of factors need to be correct for us to detect them. Like timing and technology.

The Earth is 7.5 billion years old and our technosignatures are only detectable probably since we started broadcasting radio signals a hundred years ago. So we're not even considered being a blink of an eye compared to how long Earth exists. Biosignatures are much easier to detect but you can't necessarily conclude that the origin are intelligent life forms. Our search methods and the technology we expect to find can differ a lot from reality. We can't realistically expect all life forms to evolve just like us as well.

So we're hoping to find a civilization existing; then at the same time as we do (or slightly prior to us); using roughly the same technology. That's an almost impossible endeavour regardless of how advanced technology will be. Even with the best observational methods you can't force planets around us to have intelligent life right now.

Freakzilla · Jun 26, 2019

This

Mona said:
this is like scooping a dixie cup of water out of the ocean and concluding there aren't any whales

And

PlayALLTheGames said:
Meanwhile, on one of those planets...

"Commander, looks like the blue planet is searching again. Should I send a signal?"
"What, Earth? Fuuuuck no, we want nothing to do with those clowns - stay completely undetected."

ItsBobbyDarin · Jun 26, 2019

I am a Bird said:

I laughed way more than I should!

Deleted member 7051 · Jun 26, 2019

Regulus Tera said:
1300 is an infinitesimal amount of stars just in our galaxy, let alone the entire universe. This is statistically insignificant.

Yeah this is like asking the people who live either side of your house if they have any sugar and proclaiming there's none left on the planet if they don't.

I'm not even sure we know how many stars there are in the galaxy, but assuming there's about three hundred billion of them then they've only tested 0.0000000043% of the stars in the Milky Way.

It's not like I expect a huge number of planets with intelligent life but there's going to be tens of thousands at least.

Bung Hole · Jun 26, 2019

Forerunner said:
Also this gives you an idea of the scale we are talking about:

Sweet Jesus. This blows my mind

cnorwood · Jun 26, 2019

Kevers said:
I don't understand how anybody could think this is possibly true.

Because the universe is old as hell compared to us so many societies would've had billions of years of development. We've already left our planet with thousands of years of development do you think wont get that far with billions? Also I am not a man of faith like many of you

Arebours · Jun 26, 2019

Winny（๑•̀ㅂ•́）و said:
Yeah this is like asking the people who live either side of your house if they have any sugar and proclaiming there's none left on the planet if they don't.

I'm not even sure we know how many stars there are in the galaxy, but assuming there's about three hundred billion of them then they've only tested 0.0000000043% of the stars in the Milky Way.

It's not like I expect a huge number of planets with intelligent life but there's going to be tens of thousands at least.

Only we haven't actually tested them. Civilizations at those stars would not be able to detect us using the same method.

Deleted member 7051 · Jun 26, 2019

cnorwood said:
Because the universe is old as hell compared to us so many societies would've had billions of years of development. We've already left our planet with thousands of years of development do you think wont get that far with billions? Also I am not a man of faith like many of you

Kevers is saying he doesn't get how you could think we're the first and he's right. We can't even begin to comprehend the size of the universe and everything we know about it is only theoretical anyway.

The very idea that we're the first intelligent form of life in the universe is... naive. We have no idea how many civilisations have come and gone in the billions of years since we think the universe began. For all we know, two species existing at the same time is like you or I being alive at the same time as David Bowie. How many humans never were?

Maybe the same is true for species and we're all so short lived that the chances of two existing at the same time in even the same galaxy is infinitely small. For all we know there is intelligent life out there right now but it's so far away that we'd never reach it before either we died out or they did. All we'd find is ruins and dust.

I mean, we aren't the only life in the universe and I'm sure there are tens upon thousands of worlds in our galaxy alone with all sorts of crazy flora and fauna that one day our descendants will be able to explore and catalogue... but the chances of finding life as intelligent as us or moreso is probably never happening and I think there's a rather good chance we'll die out as a species before anyone finds us.

Mesoian · Jun 26, 2019

Maxey said:
We're the loud obnoxious tryhard who wants to be friends with everyone but deep down we just want to fill our meaningless void of an existence with the presence of other more interesting people.

But we also cannot stop hitting ourselves in the head with a safety hammer.

cnorwood · Jun 26, 2019

Winny（๑•̀ㅂ•́）و said:
Kevers is saying he doesn't get how you could think we're the first and he's right. We can't even begin to comprehend the size of the universe and everything we know about it is only theoretical anyway.

The very idea that we're the first intelligent form of life in the universe is... naive. We have no idea how many civilisations have come and gone in the billions of years since we think the universe began. For all we know, two species existing at the same time is like you or I being alive at the same time as David Bowie. How many humans never were?

Maybe the same is true for species and we're all so short lived that the chances of two existing at the same time in even the same galaxy is infinitely small. For all we know there is intelligent life out there right now but it's so far away that we'd never reach it before either we died out or they did. All we'd find is ruins and dust.

I mean, we aren't the only life in the universe and I'm sure there are tens upon thousands of worlds in our galaxy alone with all sorts of crazy flora and fauna that one day our descendants will be able to explore and catalogue... but the chances of finding life as intelligent as us or moreso is probably never happening and I think there's a rather good chance we'll die out as a species before anyone finds us.

So do you think humans are special and will probably be the first to leave their planet and all other societies died off before they can do that? Because if you dont then can you explain civilizations with billions of years of advancement, space travel, and god like AI compared to us would just die off?

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Jun 26, 2019

Don't worry, only a bajillion trillion left to go!

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Jun 26, 2019

Maxey said:
We're the loud obnoxious tryhard who wants to be friends with everyone but deep down we just want to fill our meaningless void of an existence with the presence of other more interesting people.

Or... we secretly just dream about realizing our Mass Effect fantasies

Deleted member 7051 · Jun 26, 2019

cnorwood said:
So do you think humans are special and will probably be the first to leave their planet and all other societies died off before they can do that? Because if you dont then can you explain civilizations with billions of years of advancement, space travel, and god like AI compared to us would just die off?

Who says civilisations even make it that far? We're only how many thousands of years old as a civilisation and we're teetering on the edge of our own oblivion. The chances of there even being a humanity in a hundred years is pretty unlikely so why assume any other intelligent species out there is different to us? What makes this intelligent life you've never met, in your mind, less inclined to abuse and exploit the resources of their own planet until they destroy themselves?

It's possible there are species out there that made it further than we seem likely to of course, but any number of things could happen to wipe them out. Natural disasters, disease, war, you name it. It's already difficult enough to achieve the conditions necessary for life to begin, but for civilisation to continue to exist requires even greater precision. If you consider how unlikely it is that humanity even exists, then it's safe to assume it's even more unlikely that any intelligent life is able to reach the stars themselves.

It could even be that civilisation itself, like the atom, becomes more unstable and decays the longer it exists until it just... doesn't any more. The only frame of reference we really have is our own and that's a pretty crappy sample size.

samoyed · Jun 26, 2019

An interesting idea I occasionally think about is, what if the dinosaurs never existed? No dinosaurs = no oil. No oil = no climate change (or less of it).

We'd probably be burning up forests as well but that's a lot more manageable than dumping millions of years of carbon into the air.

I think a planet with life that were first on the scene wouldn't encounter the problem of oil induced climate change.

sapien85 · Jun 26, 2019

That includes the sun right?

Kenstar · Jun 26, 2019

Fermi Paradox Playlist, if you want to know hows and whys instead of loling about sample sizes

psynergyadept · Jun 26, 2019

PlayALLTheGames said:
Meanwhile, on one of those planets...

"Commander, looks like the blue planet is searching again. Should I send a signal?"
"What, Earth? Fuuuuck no, we want nothing to do with those clowns - stay completely undetected."

LMAO!!!

OT: a good sample size but pales in comparison on just how big our galaxy is...that being said we don't know how technologically advance life is out there; hell they might just be discovering fire for all we know.

famikon · Jun 26, 2019

1300 is basically nothing

famikon · Jun 26, 2019

samoyed said:
An interesting idea I occasionally think about is, what if the dinosaurs never existed? No dinosaurs = no oil. No oil = no climate change (or less of it).

No climate change without oil? :) Explain Venus then.

ArnoldJRimmer · Jun 26, 2019

Yeah this is a problem wuth the vast ness of space and time.

We've only been actively searching for life for a few decades, hell, even our entire civilization has only existed for a tini tiny blip of time.

Our galaxy might end up being host to hundreds of civilizations, but even long lived ones wouldnt necessarily exist at the same time as others.

ArnoldJRimmer · Jun 26, 2019

samoyed said:
An interesting idea I occasionally think about is, what if the dinosaurs never existed? No dinosaurs = no oil. No oil = no climate change (or less of it).

We'd probably be burning up forests as well but that's a lot more manageable than dumping millions of years of carbon into the air.

I think a planet with life that were first on the scene wouldn't encounter the problem of oil induced climate change.

The problem with that is that its probably incredibly unlikely that a species capable of extracting and using oil would come in at the start, assuming by start you mean as something like some of the first complexed multicellular forms of life.

Also isnt oil mostly the remains of ancient and tiny marine animals and plant matter?

I dont think dinos contribute much, but i could be wrong.

Baji Boxer · Jun 26, 2019

Basically just shots in the dark at the moment. A hope that maybe we'll get lucky.

samoyed · Jun 26, 2019

ArnoldJRimmer said:
assuming by start you mean as something like some of the first complexed multicellular forms of life.

I mean it was a couple of million of years of dinos and dino plants, then and extinction event, then mammals, then humans.

If the dinos didn't happen and earth just went from bacteria to mammals to humans then there wouldn't be millions of years of extra biofuel in the ground for us to dig up.

"First on the scene" perhaps as in "first world-wide species".

B.K. · Jun 26, 2019

psynergyadept said:
that being said we don't know how technologically advance life is out there; hell they might just be discovering fire for all we know.

Or so far advanced compared to us that they haven't used radio waves in hundreds of thousands of years and anything heading our way is so weak it's fading into the regular background radiation.

Baji Boxer · Jun 26, 2019

cnorwood said:
Because the universe is old as hell compared to us so many societies would've had billions of years of development. We've already left our planet with thousands of years of development do you think wont get that far with billions? Also I am not a man of faith like many of you

Given the age and size of the Universe, I think it would be more likely that countless civiliazations have began, peaked, and died off before we evolved to our current state. We've travelled a tiny distance into space, but are increasingly likely to be facing collapse of our civilization within the next 100 years or so.

Baji Boxer · Jun 26, 2019

B.K. said:
Or so far advanced compared to us that they haven't used radio waves in hundreds of thousands of years and anything heading our way is so weak it's fading into the regular background radiation.

And when trying to detect signals, we're looking at the past. The further away a planet/star is, the earlier in its timeline we're looking.

Brodo Baggins · Jun 26, 2019

I think it's a vain impossibility to think that only Earth has fostered intelligent life. I'm no expert on biology or astrophysics, but just given the breadth and variety of life on Earth it's just mind mindbogglingly improbable that out of the near infinite number of stars out there only this one rock has conditions ripe for intelligent life.

That being said I don't have any faith that we are in a position physically, technologically, or temporally to actually be able to interact with them. Maybe if humanity can get over the hump of the next 100-200 years we'll be in a position to really take a stab at exploring space.

Mahonay · Jun 26, 2019

Lol 1300 is almost nothing in the scale of our galaxy, let alone the universe.

Also time makes it even harder. You're looking into the past when observing the signals from those stars. Could be civilizations there now and we'd never know.

Microsoft · Jun 26, 2019

Sweeney Swift said:
It's far far far more depressing to think we're as intelligent as life can get, considering...well, everything that's happening right now lol

Actually we have nothing against to measure our intelligence. How do we know how intelligent we are compared to aliens?

jayu26 · Jun 26, 2019

adj_noun said:
#1301 would have been it, I know it.

Well that's depressing.

Chaos Legion · Jun 26, 2019

We can't even confirm/locate a Planet Nine in our own Solar System.

Space is crazy

cnorwood · Jun 26, 2019

Winny（๑•̀ㅂ•́）و said:
Who says civilisations even make it that far?

Which is why I said I think we are the first

We're only how many thousands of years old as a civilisation and we're teetering on the edge of our own oblivion. The chances of there even being a humanity in a hundred years is pretty unlikely so why assume any other intelligent species out there is different to us? What makes this intelligent life you've never met, in your mind, less inclined to abuse and exploit the resources of their own planet until they destroy themselves?

Completely disagree with this, even with climate change wipes out a large if not most portion of us I do not think it will be a complete extinction of humans and I have yet to see a report that suggests it. Maybe if an huge asteroid hits the earth in the next 10 years but its not like biotech evolution will be completely static for the next 100 years. Today we already have in-vitro, fertility treatments and technology to keep underdeveloped babies alive, and this is not including genetic editing, which again will not just stop at 2019 development. And again this is excluding commercial space travel that many companies are trying to get in a few decades let alone 100 years. In your scenario basically all scientific development needs to stop right now, some needs to go back a few decades, we sit around waiting for the worst effects of climate change, all knowledge lost to the initial survivors, and no one ever makes it to space. I just don't see that happening

It's possible there are species out there that made it further than we seem likely to of course, but any number of things could happen to wipe them out. Natural disasters, disease, war, you name it. It's already difficult enough to achieve the conditions necessary for life to begin, but for civilisation to continue to exist requires even greater precision. If you consider how unlikely it is that humanity even exists, then it's safe to assume it's even more unlikely that any intelligent life is able to reach the stars themselves.

My last point goes to this and maybe the disagreement comes from what we are referring to as intelligent life. I mean there could maybe be species that reached hunter gatherer levels and die off but if there are intelligent aliens and humans are regular I would bet that many passed this stage. Like you said the universe is huge, even a small amount of planets could still be billions of civilizations.

Baji Boxer said:
Given the age and size of the Universe, I think it would be more likely that countless civiliazations have began, peaked, and died off before we evolved to our current state. We've travelled a tiny distance into space, but are increasingly likely to be facing collapse of our civilization within the next 100 years or so.

As I said above I disagree that we are going to completely wipe ourselves out in 100 years but if intelligent life is common then some of them should've been to space and if these civilizations had millions and billions of years of development I doubt their space travel capability would be stuck at 2019 earth levels.

XenIneX · Jun 26, 2019

SETI: A charity wherein well-heeled astronomers donate free radio telescope time to those disadvantaged with a limited grasp of statistics.

As if a couple megawatts of public access TV and smooth jazz FM transmissions are going to stand out against so many, many orders of magnitude more energy kicked out by the sun. Never mind that as our understanding of radio communications increases, antennas are designed to spill less waste RF into unproductive directions; and radio transmission strength decreases accordingly, over time... (A universal truism, perhaps?)

----------
Space is big.
Time is long.
Radio is weak.
Life is rare.

You will not meet E.T.

The BLJ · Jun 26, 2019

You ever browse Era on your phone to style on aliens?

Heshinsi · Jun 26, 2019

Sobriquet said:
Uh... zero.

Zero alien civilizations.

smurfx · Jun 26, 2019

no alien signal detected but that doesn't mean there is no life on those planets though. could be simple life and not technological which would still be the biggest discovery ever in science. also i remember watching videos saying how aliens wouldn't likely be able to detect our radio signals either unless they were specifically looking for them as they would be too weak.

TheMan · Jun 26, 2019

We have a loooooot of people parroting the same response: lolol, 1300 stars is nothing!

Are they surveyors actually making any claims that life in the galaxy is impossible? I think they're just saying that there aren't any signs of life (as we know it or envision it) around those 1300 stars. That's it. I think they know very well that their survey has limitations.

Vonnegut · Jun 26, 2019

WeAreStarStuff said:
Amazing sample size.

Yes and no.

Out of 1300 nearby stars, zero showed signs of technologically advanced life.

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