• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.

Will the Switch sell more than 100 million?

  • Yes

    Votes: 1,685 58.7%
  • No

    Votes: 1,184 41.3%

  • Total voters
    2,869

Jedeye Sniv

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,327
So, let's see....

-Performance clearly superior to a Raspberry Pi 3, probably.
-Built-in storage enough for installing as many as 1-2 games
-Voice comm requiring the use of an app on your cell phone
-Paid subscription online service feature list competitive with Heat.net
-Peripheral pricing so high and bizarrely lopsided with the initial hardware bundle that it makes buying a second Switch for parts a sensible option

...that's pretty dire, but it's still a much more compelling product than the Wii U at first reveal, simply by virtue of being a handheld. Might be somewhat more successful than the Wii U since it's not trying to leverage a poorly thought out archaic tablet as a unique selling point this time, but the cost of ownership is looking *astronomically* high. It's arguably higher than the major console competition, given the peripheral pricing, anemic built-in storage, low value paid online, etc., so it's abandoning a lot of the appeal that would otherwise come with being a handheld.

Handheld form factor and performance, but with $60 game pricing, paid online, tiny storage, and obscene peripheral costs. Worst of both worlds, arguably, and the mediocre mobile SoC isn't going to do it any favors when people hook it up to their living room setups. I seriously doubt I'll want to stretch out Switch games onto my 75" 4K HDR TV.

Not exactly situated to take the market by storm with all that and a very thin launch lineup. Not something that's easy to root for as a consumer, either, since Nintendo loaded up on anti-consumer business decisions here. It's telling that first shipment pre-orders are still available.

No.

Is this post copypasta from a year ago?
 

Revolsin

Usage of alt-account.
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,373
So, let's see....

-Performance clearly superior to a Raspberry Pi 3, probably.
-Built-in storage enough for installing as many as 1-2 games
-Voice comm requiring the use of an app on your cell phone
-Paid subscription online service feature list competitive with Heat.net
-Peripheral pricing so high and bizarrely lopsided with the initial hardware bundle that it makes buying a second Switch for parts a sensible option

...that's pretty dire, but it's still a much more compelling product than the Wii U at first reveal, simply by virtue of being a handheld. Might be somewhat more successful than the Wii U since it's not trying to leverage a poorly thought out archaic tablet as a unique selling point this time, but the cost of ownership is looking *astronomically* high. It's arguably higher than the major console competition, given the peripheral pricing, anemic built-in storage, low value paid online, etc., so it's abandoning a lot of the appeal that would otherwise come with being a handheld.

Handheld form factor and performance, but with $60 game pricing, paid online, tiny storage, and obscene peripheral costs. Worst of both worlds, arguably, and the mediocre mobile SoC isn't going to do it any favors when people hook it up to their living room setups. I seriously doubt I'll want to stretch out Switch games onto my 75" 4K HDR TV.

Not exactly situated to take the market by storm with all that and a very thin launch lineup. Not something that's easy to root for as a consumer, either, since Nintendo loaded up on anti-consumer business decisions here. It's telling that first shipment pre-orders are still available.

No.

Whoa dude, you really threw me for a loop with that last paragraph. Is this a genuine copypasta from the old site's thread?
 

cid85

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
863
Well I said it will bomb before it came out so I am going to stop predicting lol
 

lowlifelenny

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,408
I think it's time to stop comparing this to Playstation systems and talking about the CoD crowd. They're not at all relevant to the Switch's success at this point. The consumer electronic market is much bigger than hardcore gaming console buyers.

Seems pretty clear at this point that Switch is eating into the traditional console market and it's really only just gotten started.

Unless of course I'm being trolled, in which case bravo.
 

RedAhmed

Member
Jan 9, 2018
3,283
And I think DOOM on the Switch is a fine adaptation all things considered. I'll be happy to vote with my wallet for more ports of that nature. Do you think publishers are going to turn down my money?
I'm fine with the quality of the port as well, I'm just saying that the Switch will benefit from a hardware revision to keep getting similar games. If the Switch keeps getting lots of multiplatform games (and not late overpriced ones) publishers will be right at home on the Switch. I'm basically waiting to give them my money.
 

spman2099

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,892
The switch is the best companion console ever made. I know some people are going to look at that as a backhanded compliment, but it isn't meant to be backhanded at all. I think this was Nintendo's plan and I think they have managed to deliver. The Switch is going to hit 100 million unless something VERY dramatic happens in the next couple of years.
 

tbyte64

Member
Dec 30, 2017
396
Has anyone run the numbers on how the switch is doing right now compared to nintendo's other 100m+ consoles at the same point in their lifecycles (taking into account growth in the market since that time)? That could give a good indication on where it'll end up being.
 

Deleted member 21326

User requested account closure.
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,080
Its really hard to say. Without even knowing the full lineup for 2018. IF they keep up with getting most 3rd party titles to switch and keep their stellar 1st party on top. Then yes, it will. Also i assume revisions of switch will still count towards the total sold?
 

Deleted member 4021

Oct 25, 2017
1,707
Has anyone run the numbers on how the switch is doing right now compared to nintendo's other 100m+ consoles at the same point in their lifecycles (taking into account growth in the market since that time)? That could give a good indication on where it'll end up being.
Fairly sure it's outselling all of them at this point.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,431
I believe Switch family devices will hit 100 million, yes.

When they do that and when the next revision comes out are different questions.

I think the Switch effectively is Nintendo for the foreseeable future. Any future devices will use the same platform until a point at which they're no longer desirable or sought after.
 

dlauv

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,513
It has a much better chance than the 3DS, but the price is still kind of high. I expect it to ultimately beat the PS4, but it's still too early. First year was great and exciting -- no doubt. I think it will depend on what direction they take Pokemon in, and if Labo doesn't misfire.
 

Garf02

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
1,420
Has anyone run the numbers on how the switch is doing right now compared to nintendo's other 100m+ consoles at the same point in their lifecycles (taking into account growth in the market since that time)? That could give a good indication on where it'll end up being.
we actually got the Numbers from Nintendo compared to Wii

USA: Switch surpassed Wii by a tall margin
UE: Switch is equal to Wii
Japan: Switch is slightly below Wii
 

tbyte64

Member
Dec 30, 2017
396
Fairly sure it's outselling all of them at this point.
we actually got the Numbers from Nintendo compared to Wii

USA: Switch surpassed Wii by a tall margin
UE: Switch is equal to Wii
Japan: Switch is slightly below Wii
That's pretty crazy actually. In that case I think there's a fair chance. In Japan for the future we need to take account all the current Vita owners as the Switch will likely be their replacement handheld (as long as Sony doesn't try to release a new handheld).
 

cid85

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
863
It has a much better chance than the 3DS, but the price is still kind of high. I expect it to ultimately beat the PS4, but it's still too early. First year was great and exciting -- no doubt. I think it will depend on what direction they take Pokemon in, and if Labo doesn't misfire.

I thought PS home consoles have big legs even after the next successor ? I put PS4 at about 115 million LTD
 

Garf02

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
1,420
I thought PS home consoles have big legs even after the next successor ?
this is something that comes from PS2 legs lasting like 3-4 years after PS3 released, problem is, it only happened on PS2 cause PS3 early life was trash. many developer didnt move out till after 1 or 2 years. hell WoG II was released on PS2 even tho PS3 was already in the market. so the only way for PS4 to have same long legs will be for PS5 early life to be a shit show. and no one is willingly to make that gamble
 

dlauv

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,513
I thought PS home consoles have big legs even after the next successor ? I put PS4 at about 115 million LTD

Last gen the PS360 stopped before 85 million and 3DS was down from DS. You're probably right though, especially considering the mid-grades (Pro, X).
 

Johnny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
486
I think it will very handily beat the 3ds when it's all said and done, revisions included. That's pretty much a given to me and puts it around 80-85.

I am betting on 90 million if I have to.

Disclosure: I'm long Nintendo. :)
 

D.Lo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,348
Sydney
I thought PS home consoles have big legs even after the next successor ? I put PS4 at about 115 million LTD
PS1 and PS2 did. PS3 didn't.

PS1/PS2 both got well under $100 by the end and sold for many years as mini budget systems for casuals.

PS2 in particular had a long tail because 360 and particularly PS3 were too expensive, HD TV was still new and expensive so HD consoles were not for everyone yet, Wii was sold out and PS2 could benefit from cross-gen Wii ports, eg Silent Hill Shattered Memories, Indiana Jones, and PS2 was the #2 seller even for Guitar Hero 3 in 2007, after Wii, I believe.

It seems unlikely any large, power hungry intel PC-like console will be able to get to $99 or less, so that kind of tail just won't happen for them.
 

skeezx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
20,164
thing is we don't know how they'll iterate on it.

are we getting a half decade of Switch XLs and Switch Minis or will the 2.0 roll out relatively soon? given the form factor and advancement in mobile architecture i could see it having a relatively short lifespan. in that case it technically won't reach DS and Wii type lifetime sales but when you factor in every iteration within a ~5 year span it's about equal
 

MarcyPoos

Member
Oct 25, 2017
919
Yes it absolutely will. It's selling on pace with Wii and won't drop off a cliff in its 4th and 5th year because there won't be a 3DS to launch and support.
 

Wiped

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
2,096
Even the monumental Wii barely scraped 100 million. 100m is not easy at all. The Switch is already beginning to slow a little compared to the insane Wii.

Even the PS4 may not hit 100 mil. I think about 80million for the Switch is more likely with some redesigns etc and would for sure be a great success.
 
Last edited:

cid85

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
863
Even the monumental Wii barely scraped 100 million. 100m is not easy at all. The Switch is already beginning to slow a little compared to the insane Wii.

Even the PS4 may not hit 100 mil. I think about 80million is more likely with some redesigns etc and would for sure be a great success.

PS4 will hit 100 next year
 

Deleted member 37739

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 8, 2018
908
Hard to predict in this industry: as a home console, coming midway through the PlayStation/XBOX 8th gen, it's already starting on a backfoot technically, and that gulf will only become more apparent by the time the 9th generation gets underway. As a handheld, it's way out in front of all competition technically, but that does come with a few drawbacks of it's own. Right now, it's enthusiasts and advocates that have driven adoption and sales, because it offers that console experinece on-the-go, but the big question for Nintendo, is whether they'll convince parents: there is a sleekness and an 'expensiveness' to the Switch which could potentionally make parents nervous (both about it being broken or it not being suitable).

Nintendo are already well trusted by parents, so they're well placed here. I think with a thoughtful redesign that overcomes any potentional objections from parents would have a big impact and improve that chances of reaching towards triple figures.
 

spman2099

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,892
Even the monumental Wii barely scraped 100 million. 100m is not easy at all. The Switch is already beginning to slow a little compared to the insane Wii.

Even the PS4 may not hit 100 mil. I think about 80million is more likely with some redesigns etc and would for sure be a great success.

Remember, the Wii bottomed out HARD later on in its life. It abandoned the gamers that keep buying great games, which keep companies interested in making great games, which keeps the system relevant. The Switch isn't going to do that.
 

Chopper

Member
Oct 25, 2017
930
It's difficult to bet against something with so much momentum. And with Pokemon on the horizon and unknowns like Labo round the corner, the future is looking pretty rosy.
 

Deleted member 4518

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,278
If they keep content coming and the momentum going, yes. Also, they have a lot of IPs to leverage, will likely create something new again and have more ways to use the Switch besides Nintendo Labo, so I can easily see that happening.
 
Nov 11, 2017
296
Italy
It's hard to say right now. For sure they are on the right track.
If they create a good Pokémon game, a good 2d mario game, a good animal crossing and a good switch sports game, I think they can reach 100 millions.
If they "find" a new successfull casual-ip along the way, they may even surpass them
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,925
Too early to say for sure, although the current trajectory does indicate a PS2/Wii/PS4 sort of 100m+ seller. A lot could happen in the coming years though and it could definitely still go the other direction.

I thought PS home consoles have big legs even after the next successor ? I put PS4 at about 115 million LTD
PS1 and PS2 did, PSP and PS3 didn't. It's not a given.
 

Hate

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,730
The hardcore gamers thinking the Switch was only meant for them and it will falter due to not enough power, too many ports etc

I like its chances if it makes it into China

China is free 2 play mobile and pc land. No console has hit that mystical 1% yet.

In the future probably but not right now at the rate it's going.
 

Aiustis

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
2,322
Cybertronic Purgatory
This,

If they are seriously gonna continue a hybrid line for the full 10 year Nvidia deal then I expect to see it top 150m.

I agree. I say maybe this iteration won't but the Switch family idea works in the long run.
The tv at home experience is becoming increasingly removed from television sets.
Younger people are growing up okay with doing everything from smaller devices
 

Ahasverus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,599
Colombia
I still don't think so. It's a good console and all but I don't see a hundred million market for it. I also don't expect it to have a very long lifespan. Maybe if we count the inevitable Switch + or whatever, but that's cheating a bit.
 

Chrome Hyena

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,768
The switch is the best companion console ever made. I know some people are going to look at that as a backhanded compliment, but it isn't meant to be backhanded at all. I think this was Nintendo's plan and I think they have managed to deliver. The Switch is going to hit 100 million unless something VERY dramatic happens in the next couple of years.


Dramatic you say?


Sony e3 2020-

Introducing the Playstation.... FLIP.. At home or on the go, the Playstation... FLIP will allow you to seamlessly *flipping sound* FLIP from your big screen TV to the small screen! Enjoy all your gaming where you want, when you want!
 

Dr.Ifto

Member
Oct 27, 2017
480
It just matters when it hits its saturation point, and if Nintendo can overcome that. Sony's success with the PS2 was its longevity in smaller markets due to being cheap and having a dvd player built in, so their numbers are padded by people buying it for that. I can see it reaching 100 million in 6-7 years. Just have to see if they come out with the Switch 2 before then.