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Will the Switch sell more than 100 million?

  • Yes

    Votes: 1,685 58.7%
  • No

    Votes: 1,184 41.3%

  • Total voters
    2,869

Aaronrules380

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
22,427
I forgot about China.

Have they launched there already? Because if successful, it could change our perception of sales numbers. It's basically unlocking 1/6 of the world population.

Also, I read that Nintendo is trying to enter India as well.

Yeah, in a couple of years people will laugh at this thread.
China's honestly a big wild card. Success there would be an enormous game changer for any console, but it's a notoriously hard market for any outsider to enter and my understanding is that the gaming community that does exist there is firmly entrenched in the PC landscape, so it's not something anyone should bet on as surefire. You'd be stupid to not try and make inroads to the Chinese market at this points, but you'd also be stupid to bet too much on them as well
 

Naner

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,016
The 3DS biggest region was Japan (or very close to it) the switch is massively supply constrained in Japan and ww shipments at 25% in comparison to America's 40%. They only reason the switch isn't outsetripping the 3DS while at a much higher price is production problems.
Most definitely. And even then it's only around 250k units behind what the 3DS had.
 

TimeFire

Avenger
Nov 26, 2017
9,625
Brazil
I forgot about China.

Have they launched there already? Because if successful, it could change our perception of sales numbers. It's basically unlocking 1/6 of the world population.

Also, I read that Nintendo is trying to enter India as well.

Yeah, in a couple of years people will laugh at this thread.

Yup. People are too focused on the usual Euroamerican + japan market. The times are changing. India and China will be huge players in the industry.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
The systems peak will get it close, but it depends on how Nintendo treats it in its transition period/how Nintendo moves forward with their next piece of hardware. If they just move to a Switch+ and it basically becomes modular upgrades like generations of iPhone's it will be tough to tell where the cut off is.
 

Deleted member 11413

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
22,961
Well, it didn't have stuff like Doom and Skyrim. I didn't say its library is bad anyway.
You implied as such by calling the library full of filler.
Name a single 3DS game that was a cultural phenomenon on the scale of Breath of the Wild or Mario Odyssey
As if that's a somehow useful comparison?
The obvious examples would be Yokai Watch, Pokemon, and Smash Bros. Oh, and Animal Crossing New Leaf
 

Gundam

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,801
Unless we get a mid-gen Switch upgrade that counts as it's own console (Not an "S" model or "Slim"), then yeah probably.
 

Adamska

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,042
Name a single 3DS game that was a cultural phenomenon on the scale of Breath of the Wild or Mario Odyssey
Wait, Mario and Zelda are cultural phenomena? I mean, they sold well, but this is a bit of a stretch. No one calls GTAV a cultural phenomenon, even if it is the best selling game ever (in the US).
 

Deleted member 11413

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
22,961
Wait, Mario and Zelda are cultural phenomena? I mean, they sold well, but this is a bit of a stretch. No one calls GTAV a cultural phenomenon, even if it is the best selling game ever (in the US).
GTA V would definitely qualify as a cultural phenomenon, do you remember how insane the launch for that game was?
 

hibikase

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
6,820
So far it's looking like it will outsell the Wii which did 101 million, so yeah probably.
 

LegendofLex

Member
Nov 20, 2017
5,457
Wait, Mario and Zelda are cultural phenomena? I mean, they sold well, but this is a bit of a stretch. No one calls GTAV a cultural phenomenon, even if it is the best selling game ever (in the US).

GTA V "the best-selling packaged game ever, the game everyone buys when they buy a PS4" is absolutely a cultural phenomenon.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
The 3DS Pokemon titles were no more popular than the DS or GBA ones, and much less popular than the GB/GBC ones.


When I say "cultural phenomenon," I'm talking about games that had huge popularity growth. Stable popularity is not growth.
Zelda was always popular as was mario so by your own standards they don't count.

Fire Emblem had a legitimate popularity growth and is now one nintendo's top earning mobile titles.
 

CaviarMeths

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,655
Western Canada
The 3DS Pokemon titles were no more popular than the DS or GBA ones, and much less popular than the GB/GBC ones.


When I say "cultural phenomenon," I'm talking about games that had huge popularity growth. Stable popularity is not growth.
You're kind of redefining borders here, but it's worth noting that Pokemon is literally the highest grossing media franchise of all time. It's bigger than Star Wars. Don't know how much more "cultural phenomenon" it gets than that.
 

LegendofLex

Member
Nov 20, 2017
5,457
Zelda was always popular as was mario so by your own standards they don't count.

Zelda was always popular.

Zelda was never as popular as Breath of the Wild.

Likewise for 3D Mario games.

Neither of these properties has ever been this big.

You're kind of redefining borders here, but it's worth noting that Pokemon is literally the highest grossing media franchise of all time. It's bigger than Star Wars. Don't know how much more "cultural phenomenon" it gets than that.

Pokemon Sun and Moon did not create an unprecedented fever for Pokemon games, so I wouldn't say that the Pokemon games on 3DS were themselves a phenomenon.

You could argue that Pokemon Go did this, of course.

Fire Emblem had a legitimate popularity growth and is now one nintendo's top earning mobile titles.

I'll give you Fire Emblem, but for every Fire Emblem, Nintendo has 6 comparable breakout success stories on Switch.
 

psynergyadept

Member
Oct 26, 2017
15,568
no, but think it will definitely reach 70-80 million, I think the switch might find itself in a weird place a few years down the road; I think it will get stellar support this year and the next but by 2019 we'll probaby be hearing rumors of Sony and Micosofts new console possibly furthering the gap between the switch and it's competetitors. it will most likely get Japanese support throught out its life but the western devs will most likely move on to PS5/"Nextbox."
 

Jumpman23

Member
Nov 14, 2017
1,000
I'm saying "yes". It has had a phenomenal start and some of the biggest franchises haven't even touched down yet. However, I suspect it will take hardware revisions to meet that milestone similar to the DS and 3DS most recently.
 

Garf02

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
1,420
It can cause if PS4 is the next Water cooler, Switch is the next Smartphone.

this means that while both are popular on their "context" at the end of the day, PXBONE are marketed as 1 device to bring people around it, so you see 1 of each per home, while Switch is marketed as a personal device, so you are seeing multiple one per house hold. so this fact will be a major boost for Nintendo
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Zelda was always popular.

Zelda was never as popular as Breath of the Wild.

Likewise for 3D Mario games.

Neither of these properties has ever been this big.
Princess still sold 9 million. Percentage wise it'll likely end up lower than fire emblem. Also while 3D mario grew mario was always massive and there isn't a new 2D mario on the system so it's not llike mario games popularity actually grew simply a type of mario game.
 

Adamska

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,042
Zelda was always popular.

Zelda was never as popular as Breath of the Wild.

Likewise for 3D Mario games.

Neither of these properties has ever been this big.

But that's not correct. BOTW is being as well received as TP or OoT. This is not some new plateau of popularity for this series.

Odyssey so far is nowhere near the more popular recent installments of Mario (namely the NSMB games), and it's on the way to maybe overtake Galaxy. But then again, someone will argue that Odyssey can't be compared to NSMB for whatever reason.
 

LegendofLex

Member
Nov 20, 2017
5,457
But that's not correct. BOTW is being as well received as TP or OoT.

Between Switch and Wii U, Breath of the Wild has already outsold OoT's N64 run in less than a year.

It has also sold more than 2.4 million more copies on Switch than Twilight Princess sold in on Wii during a similar period of time.

Hell, more copies of Breath of the Wild (2 million for a total of 6.7 million on Switch) were sold from Oct-Dec 2017 alone (the period beginning 7 months after Breath of the Wild's launch and ending Dec 31, 10 months after launch) than Twilight Princess sold (1.25 million for a total of 4.7 million on Wii) in Wii's entire first full fiscal year on the market (which began 5 months after Twilight Princess's launch and ended March 31, 16.5 months after launch).

Breath of the Wild sold much better at launch, and it's continuing to sell much, much, much better after launch.

Breath of the Wild's popularity blows Twilight Princess's out of the water. It will break Twilight Princess's LTD sales within the next six months, and likely go on to sell several million more units after that. It is a massive growth phenomenon for the franchise.

Odyssey so far is nowhere near the more popular recent installments of Mario (namely the NSMB games), and it's on the way to maybe overtake Galaxy. But then again, someone will argue that Odyssey can't be compared to NSMB for whatever reason.

On a launch-aligned basis, Odyssey has an even greater lead over Galaxy than Breath of the Wild has on Twilight Princess.

It's absolutely a new height of popularity for 3D Mario games. People generally separate the 3D games from the 2D games, since they have generally been substantially less popular than the 2D games. But Odyssey has moved the needle so much that there's a smaller gap between it and NSMB Wii than there is between Galaxy and it.
 
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Jeff6851

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
753
It'll at least be Nintendo's second best selling console ever (has to beat 62 million). I don't know if it will reach 100 mil but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. Drop it down to $200 next Black Friday and it'll crush everything else.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
But that's not correct. BOTW is being as well received as TP or OoT. This is not some new plateau of popularity for this series.

Odyssey so far is nowhere near the more popular recent installments of Mario (namely the NSMB games), and it's on the way to maybe overtake Galaxy. But then again, someone will argue that Odyssey can't be compared to NSMB for whatever reason.
Maybe overtake galaxy is a massive understatment.It's almost 75% there after 2 months and these sorts of games have long legs.
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,043
Honestly, I'm almost 100% sure it will.

System is selling itself then there's still another Zelda for the system, there's still more Mario to come, there's No Pokemon yet, there's no Smash yet, there's no Animal Crossing yet and whatever else Nintendo decides to sell on the system. And almost 15 millions later (we're there already counting January sales) and the system is not even one year old.

The hybrid aspect of the console combined with a forthcoming drop in price when ever will make sure that there's lots of room for more than one system per family.

Heck, I'd change my Avatar to Forever a Probe (fuck probes) if it doesnt hit 100M ;P
 

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,001
I think so, possibly much more if something like Labo creates a demand from non or new gamers. I suspect it will be close to 100m by the end of FY2021-2022.
 

Lat

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,322
Games in 720P, so underpowered compared to PS4/Xbox One? 100M? I'll be surprised if it even passes Wii U numbers. It's the end for Nintendo. Time to go 3rd party

/s

It's gonna be damn close to 100M
 

samred

Amico fun conversationalist
Member
Nov 4, 2017
2,584
Seattle, WA
If Nintendo keeps Switch going in the incremental-update manner, a la iPhones and other game systems, then maybe. Switch is better poised to do that than any other Nintendo home consoles, and Nintendo clearly loves incremental updates to hardware (see all 50 bazillion versions of DS and 3DS).

The next Switch will almost certainly deliver "docked" performance while undocked with a 1080p portable screen. That's a no-brainer for an incremental update. It would let Nintendo boost performance in a noticeable way that doesn't make past games incompatible.

But the 100 mill mark would require a six-year plan, and that might require TWO incremental updates to keep people buying. Not sure that Switch 4K is truly in the cards. But who knows?
 

freikugeln

Member
Oct 27, 2017
337
Only way it doesn't reach 100 is if Nintendo decides to kill it prematurely. Considering the price and the hardware, sales are just unreal.

Nintendo's biggest weapon is the pricing. @ 250 they can come close to DS levels. If they can get it down to 200 eventually and keep support till 2023, 150m is feasible.
 

ToddBonzalez

The Pyramids? That's nothing compared to RDR2
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,530
I doubt it. It's selling really well, but I don't think it's a Wii-level mainstream hit. I think it'll do closer to 85-90m lifetime.
 

eXistor

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,273
I think I had my original estimate at around 70 million. I'll stick to that. They might go over and I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm still not convinced.
 

Deleted member 7101

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
291
tenor.gif
 

thebadrouter

Member
Dec 6, 2017
44
Carlsbad, CA
70-80 million zone. It's not going to have the Fifa's/COD's/GTA's required to get a modern console up past 100. PS4 has the chance.

Well first, the Switch does have Fifa, and apparently EA are satisfied with its performance. but aside from that...

Is Fifa/COD/GTA the reason the Wii sold over 100M? Is it the reason the Xbox One is gong to sell over 100M? oh wait..

Your logic makes zero sense. Those games do sell well, but they're hardly what makes or breaks in terms of hardware sales success. They certainly aren't an indicator of whether a console has the ability to break 100M units sold. The indicators that are there, the Switch is hitting. I think it will get over 100M, and yes I'm sure there will be some sort of revision, though a mini or an XL don't make any sense given that it would make things like existing joycon and LABO unusable.
 

Sloane Ranger

Member
Oct 27, 2017
631
New Albany
Nope. Not because it does not deserve it ... but because new consoles (PS5 & Next X-Box) will be out before the next 24 months are over - which will steal mindshare from mass market
 

Lat

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,322
Nope. Not because it does not deserve it ... but because new consoles (PS5 & Next X-Box) will be out before the next 24 months are over - which will steal mindshare from mass market
that's what most were saying about the Switch not being successful. "it's clearly underpowered and we have 4K consoles here"
 

Jumpman64

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
550
This is impossible to predict without a crystal ball showing you the software that will release over the next 5-6 years.

Never underestimate Nintendo's ability to swerve completely away from the software strategy that made them successful.


Bingo!! We have a winner. Nintendo is a master at sabotaging itself. It certainly can go over 100 mil at the rate it's going and if great games keep coming out but only time will tell.
 

CesareNorrez

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,517
The 3DS is nowhere near that, and the Switch will be no different. I'm pretty convinced it won't even reach the PS4, but I'll wait until how it performs in its sophomore year to say that.

I don't think this will be the case even with a new Switch. I mean, the New 3DS, the PS4 Pro and the X1X didn't double their respective install bases or something like that anyway. In fact, I think the people who already have a Switch will see no reason to upgrade, unless they keep games from releasing on the base Switch.

If they release just a tablet upgrade SKU, I will happily buy that. $220 would be a good price to me.