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One year later, betting time: will the Nintendo Switch sell over 100 million?
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
- Start date
Yes, because I believe Nintendo learned with Wii to not kill support after four years. And that console was able to sell 100 million despite that massive blunder.
Multiple SKU models will help. It's the new Game Boy or DS for Nintendo, just this time it's their main console.
Depends if they keep the momentum. I'm a tad concerned with 2018's focus being on expanded audience games instead of 2017 which was Boom! Zelda. Boom! Splatoon. Boom! Mario. Boom! Xenoblade.
Probably with some revisions. I won't be jumping in until a more portable one is out there, as my interest in the Switch is strictly as a portable console. (No interest hooking it up to a 4K TV when it barely manages 1080p for it's flagship games like Zelda)
It could do, but I think it needs a Wii Sports-esque title to capture the mainstream to reach it.
No. I still think the mobile market will eat into some of that potential, but then again it'll do the same w/ PS and Xbox as well. Barring some unforeseen crisis tho it'll do better than I originally thought (65 million LTD), especially considering they will likely make variations.
Thinking somewhere around 80-85 million LTD, for the current one and other variations they're inevitably going to release.
Neither Switch nor PS4 are going to be breaking 150 million any time soon.
Thinking somewhere around 80-85 million LTD, for the current one and other variations they're inevitably going to release.
Neither Switch nor PS4 are going to be breaking 150 million any time soon.
This. I reckon some form of Switch will be Nintendo's primary console for a very long time and that it will eventually cross 100m.
Probably, but we'll have to see the software output for the next few years. Revisions, price drops, battery performance two years from now. All of those are big factors.
Nintendo has announced that they will publish 11 games in North America in 2018 (12 games if you count Pokemon).
Only two of those games are expanded audience games.
Guess it depends on how long they'll keep the console around before doing a Switch 2 or a Wii X or whatever. If it's treated like a handheld, thus it remains actively supported as long as the DS and 3DS, it can definitely get to 100mln between all the bundles and revisions. If they'll move to a new console not long after Sony and Microsoft and support starts fading, they probably won't reach that number. But again, since the system is selling and will likely continue to do so, I can see them making it last a while, thus 100m seems feasible. I think that 100m is definitely feasible.
It's tough to answer because I don't know what the next iteration is going to look like. Will it be a straight up Switch 2? Or a New Switch like New 3DS? They could choose to have these half step upgrades every few years and keep the same systems and architectures without needing a reboot every new "gen".
3ds managed 72 million over 7 years. that thing had pokemon, animal crossing, 2d mario, and was always cheaper than the switch.
the switch didn't need to struggle, outside of getting more supply to beat the 3ds's first year.
third-parties are on board and software is selling well across the platform.
lastly, nintendo hasn't had their software teams focused on a single platform this much since the 1983-1988 nes era.
yes, i think 100m is completely within reach.
the switch didn't need to struggle, outside of getting more supply to beat the 3ds's first year.
third-parties are on board and software is selling well across the platform.
lastly, nintendo hasn't had their software teams focused on a single platform this much since the 1983-1988 nes era.
yes, i think 100m is completely within reach.
In 3-4 years its going to look a bit long in the tooth, I guess it all just depends on whether the next hardware iteration Nintendo makes carries the switch name but is significantly different but BC, or if they give it a new name or still keep the BC (which I imagine is a must going forward). I don't see this current model of switch though hitting 100m, even with the intro of a cheaper clamshell kids edition or something.
I dont think so
Unless they launch some Switch portable only and count both SKUs in the final LTD
By 2020, PS5 and Xbox 2 will be the hot thing too, which means third parties will start abandoning Switch since I doubt it will be able to get PS5/XB2 ports with its hardware. That means Nintendo will probably want to launch Switch 2 around that time too, killing any chance of Switch to reach 100mi.
Unless they launch some Switch portable only and count both SKUs in the final LTD
By 2020, PS5 and Xbox 2 will be the hot thing too, which means third parties will start abandoning Switch since I doubt it will be able to get PS5/XB2 ports with its hardware. That means Nintendo will probably want to launch Switch 2 around that time too, killing any chance of Switch to reach 100mi.
OP
OP
The PS3 and 360 had Cod, fifa, GTA, and they didn't reach 100, while the Wii and DS passed 100 without those.
Yes, but these things are always hard to predict, because we don't know about a replacement and how long they will support the console. If they support it as long as the 3DS or even close, then it's almost certain. If they drop support too soon like they did with the Wii, then it will be harder. Remember that the Wii could have sold a lot more, but it only received strong support until 2009 and 2010 at most. 2011 and 2012 were dead years besides Skyward Sword. Short answer: it's up to Nintendo.
If they manage to launch games that people actually want to play and some revisions of the hardware, 70m is the ground for the Switch.
The roof probably would be 110m, by March 2023.
The roof probably would be 110m, by March 2023.
I don't know. It had the best launch library of any platform ever. But now Zelda, Mario, Mario kart, and Splatoon are all hit and reloading. You can walk into any store and buy a Switch right now. What sort of person buys a Switch now??? They would be a person not swayed by all those awesome 2017 games but what, KIRBY is the game they were waiting for? Smash has its fans but most Smash fans are Nintendo fans and very likely bought Switches in 17 to enjoy all the hype trains. Smash will be a system seller to some degree, but I don't think that much. Pokemon is probably the next real console pusher they have. FE and Metroid too. Switch will have games, but I think it's going to start feeling like WiiU, with only 1 maybe 2 really meaty releases per year, plus a TON of indies. Switch is a far better platform than WiiU, but I think it loses momentum this year. No Monster Hunter hurts really bad. For the next 6-9 months I have no games (besides indies) to look forward to on Switch and that wasn't true for ALL of 2017.
So yeah I think Switch goes into a dry spot in 2018. It will never be as bad as WiiU due to great indie support but it will be bad this year and gamers will start to sour and fans will get more defensive and aggressive in their promotion of lets be honest B tier games like Kirby and Yoshi. 2019 Metroid, Pokemon, Smash all hit and Switch looks good again. Maybe even switch Pro and MHW port. Oh yeah theres Labo this year which will keep Nintendo as a company in the spotlight and absolutely sell switches.
75 million is my guess.
So yeah I think Switch goes into a dry spot in 2018. It will never be as bad as WiiU due to great indie support but it will be bad this year and gamers will start to sour and fans will get more defensive and aggressive in their promotion of lets be honest B tier games like Kirby and Yoshi. 2019 Metroid, Pokemon, Smash all hit and Switch looks good again. Maybe even switch Pro and MHW port. Oh yeah theres Labo this year which will keep Nintendo as a company in the spotlight and absolutely sell switches.
75 million is my guess.
Sure, why not.
And I was 100% expecting it to bomb last year after the january presentation, lol.
But aside from its current momentum, Pokémon will be humongous on this thing.
And I was 100% expecting it to bomb last year after the january presentation, lol.
But aside from its current momentum, Pokémon will be humongous on this thing.
I'm still expecting to see Iwata's vision of a "family of systems" a la iPhone, iPad, etc. All we've seen so far is the first in the Switch product line. I think the scope of what Switch actually is will be bigger than any of us know right now. Labo is our first glimpse of that. It's not simply a game or an accessory, it's their first step into a new, emerging market for them.
So yeah, 100m is on the table.
So yeah, 100m is on the table.
Possible but in the end, probably not. How many consoles have broken 100m? The PS1, the Wii, and the PS2. And each of these had mainstream, breakout success. The PS4 is on its way to over 100m as well, and again, it has been a mainstream success. The Switch had an excellent first year on the back of first-party hits, but its appeal so far has been limited more to Nintendo fans than to the broader market.
80m+? Absolutely.
This.
80m+? Absolutely.
This.