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One year later, betting time: will the Nintendo Switch sell over 100 million?

Will the Switch sell more than 100 million?

  • Yes

    Votes: 1,685 58.7%

  • No

    Votes: 1,184 41.3%
  • Total voters
    2,869

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
I'm sure we all remember the now legendary thread at the old place asking how the Switch would do (answer- most of ya'all got it wrong, lol). Well, it's now been roughly a year since that thread, and about 10 months since the Switch launched. At this point, it is clear that the system is a sustained success, that it is breaking sales records worldwide (except for in the UK for some reason), that it is managing to accrue a reasonable amount of third party support (which is doing well on it no less!), that the system itself is appealing and exciting to the mainstream, that Nintendo's marketing is top notch, and that creatively, Nintendo's output hasn't been this great in decades.

You have the benefit of almost a year's worth of data for the Switch now- so hopefully, ya'all will do a bit better this time. Betting time- will the Switch cross 100 million units sold?
 

Deleted member 5491

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,249
It can.
Wouldn't bet on it. That's not a usual mark to break but
with some 3rd Party support, Pokémon & Animal Crossing coming
and the ability to drop the price. Yeah, maybe
 
Man God

Man God

Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,307
It would take getting cut short like the GBA for it to not go over 100 Million.
 
Dwebble

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,627
It's certainly acting like a system that could.

I'm going to say yes, dependent on it getting a long run of support.
 
Hyaku Shiki

Hyaku Shiki

Chicken Chaser
Member
Oct 27, 2017
929
Are you asking if the Switch will achieve lifetime sales over 100 million? I doubt it. 70-80 I think. Would be great if I am wrong though.
 
Servbot24

Servbot24

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
43,147
No. I can imagine it getting around 80m.

Hope it can sell more than that because it's a great system.
 
Mandos

Mandos

Member
Nov 27, 2017
31,002
Well, I think there's a chance it may have a slightly longer than usual lifetime due to its nature, so I wouldn't rule it out. Especially since the form factor making an iterative refresh possible instead of going directly to a successor, and allowing for multiple in a household
 
LegendofLex

LegendofLex

Member
Nov 20, 2017
5,470
This is impossible to predict without a crystal ball showing you the software that will release over the next 5-6 years.

Never underestimate Nintendo's ability to swerve completely away from the software strategy that made them successful.
 
Mcjmetroid

Mcjmetroid

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,843
Limerick, Ireland
I just think it will fall short of the Wii lifetime sales but it's hard to say. I really do think the Labo will take off like wildfire and could make it.

It will outsell every other Nintendo system though. It's been sold in more countries than ever how could it not.
 
Big G

Big G

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,605
I predicted a modest ~40 million in that old thread (I still can't get over how many people actually thought it would do as bad or worse than the Wii U), and it sure looks like it'll at least double that.

Yeah, I think 100 million is definitely doable considering the fast start.
 
HandsomeCharles

HandsomeCharles

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,919
Im going to say around 70m for the switch. That includes later hardware revisions in the same vein as 3DS, 3DSXL, New 3DS, New 3DSXL etc.

However, I think it will only achieve this target if it continues to have regular first-party software releases. I don't believe that western 3rd parties will adopt the platform in a massive way, instead only porting "older" games with very few "new" titles releasing simultaneously alongside Playstation and Xbox versions.
 
Fawk Nin

Fawk Nin

Member
Nov 6, 2017
340
In and around 70-80 unless they have a wii sports type mainstream hot-streak. I don't see labo being it.

Pokemon will be a huge boost, especially if its good.
 
kadotsu

kadotsu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,505
It performed way better than the 3DS without getting a massive price cut. I think 100 million is very possible.
 
Phendrift

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,304
Not a chance. Won't even outsell the GCN.

They really think people want a hybrid console? Nintendo just killed themselves by not focusing on power
 
Meelow

Meelow

Member
Oct 31, 2017
9,195
It won't outsell the Gamecube let alone the Wii lol

/s

I think it could. Even if it needs a revision/Switch Pro/X
 
Nolbertos

Nolbertos

Member
Dec 9, 2017
3,315
I think it'll be close, but not 100 million. More like 85-90 million. I expect a Tegra X2 revision with Switch 2 on the Xavier SoC.
 
Zedark

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Yes. The system has an incredible and timeless selling point, is moving core as well as mainstream titles, and sold 15M in 10 months. I think it will do 100M quite comfortably, it has Pokémon to give it extended legs compared to typical nintendo consoles.

Edit: As for iterations, I count all iterations of Switch that do not have a slew of games that only work on that system (so, a mini, XL and Pro count for the total number, but a Switch 2 doesn't).
 
Perosteck

Perosteck

Member
Jan 25, 2018
43
Nah, Nintendo is going to give up and go third party this year. Neogaf said so. and the people there were always right about everything.
 
henlo_birb

henlo_birb

Member
Dec 15, 2017
1,884
I really don't see it selling 100m. That's a huge number. I would estimate it closer to 3DS numbers in the end.
 
Gobias-Ind

Gobias-Ind

Member
Nov 22, 2017
4,025
I think the Switch, as a platform, is going to blur generational lines and sell nearly 150-200 million over the next ~10 years with a large, often-debated, asterisk.
 
Luckett_X

Luckett_X

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,410
Leeds, UK
70-80 million zone. It's not going to have the Fifa's/COD's/GTA's required to get a modern console up past 100. PS4 has the chance.
 
ASaiyan

ASaiyan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,228
I still don't think it'll hit 100 million; maybe like 80-85 is my new guess. But I'd certainly be happy to see it prove me wrong, lol.
 
Cranston

Cranston

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
1,377
Yes.

Purely anecdotal, but two dudes at my work have recently picked a Switch up, and the last consoles they owned were the Wii and PS3.

I think the Switch has infiltrated the mainstream again and will sell gangbusters.
 
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