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Oct 28, 2017
22,596
Time to open up my own oil storage in the back garden...

"Hey, babe? Do you want cheese on your...shit. oh my god!!"

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"Aiiieeeeeeeee!! It burns!"

agonizingglisteningkoqzkxn.gif
 

Accident

Member
Oct 28, 2017
43
US refineries have been buying an average of 600,000 barrels a day from Saudi Arabia in the last month. Free Market!
 

Shoe

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,181
The value of the barrel alone has got to be more than the barrel+oil now
 

Lonestar

Roll Tahd, Pawl
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
3,556
Someone looked up, that the actual barrel is like $50, and it's been under the cost of it for awhile now.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,262
Watching the chart is like watching a car accident.

It's horrible but you can't look away
 

TheMango55

Banned
Nov 1, 2017
5,788
Oil is officially styrofoam peanuts.

It would cost more to buy an empty barrel than to buy a barrel with oil in it, because nobody wants to deal with worthless oil.
 

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
This will probably knock gas in Seattle down to like, $3.75 a gallon!

I wish I were kidding...

I think Cali and Hawaii have it worse tho.

I remember seeing 99 cent gas once in New Jersey when I visited my GF at the time, when it was > $2.50 in cali. Seeing less than a dollar felt CRAZY.

I guess Shell and Chevron will just have to stay afloat by <checks notes> rolling around in vast govt subsidies, having obscene cash reserves, making fewer glossy climate concern ads and tripling the sales of Gas Station Boner Pills.
 

2PiR

alt account
Banned
Aug 28, 2019
978
guys thats for May contract, they expire tomorrow thats why everyone just selling at whatever price. Look price for June/July contracts for better sense.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,262
Can someone explain why it plunged so hard specifically today?
Contract for may is up tomorrow so this is probably the closes we're getting to the actual physical prices paid in texas right now. Which makes sense because there are multiple reports that traders buy it at $2.

guys thats for May contract, they expire tomorrow thats why everyone just selling at whatever price. Look price for June/July contracts for better sense.
May prices are the closest prices we have to the actual physical prices while futures for june/july are forecasts that'll likely drop the closer we get to actual delivery dates.
 

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,880
If people are going to be stuck with contracts they can't execute since it is closing on expiration, it is very possible for this to go negative. Literally paying people to take the contract. Way too much oil for this month.

Also to the comment about the barrel costing $50, they really don't store oil in barrels anymore in mass....but funny!
 

sonder

Banned
Mar 18, 2020
298
Can someone explain why it plunged so hard specifically today?

Taken from: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4338551-why-wti-crude-is-crashing-much-today

The Simple Explanation
First, we need to consider what's actually being traded here. On one side, the crashing contract is traded on NYMEX under the ticker CL. Now consider the following regarding this contract:
  • This contract stops trading on the 21st of April (tomorrow).
  • This contract is settled physically.
This second item is critical. It means whoever is long the contract when it stops trading will have to take delivery of physical crude. This excludes any speculators not having somehow contracted for storage for this incoming crude. In practice, this excludes all people not professionally trading this thing at the same time as they contract physical infrastructure, including the very large ETFs which now dominate this market.

Now consider what the Brent contract traded on ICE actually represents:
  • The front-month is the June contract. It stops trading on April 30, so very comparable to the WTIC May 2020 contract.
  • This contract is settled in cash.
What that second item means is that any speculator can take this contract through the end of trading and subsequent expiration. Nobody is going to find barrels of oil with nowhere to store, if he does that.

Hence, for the WTIC front-month contract, you have extreme forced selling pressure from all the traders holding the contract which can't possibly go beyond tomorrow holding it. For the Brent contract, you have no such pressure. You also don't have such a thing for the June WTIC contract yet, simply because it doesn't stop trading for another month.

The end result is what you see.

On the buying side of the WTIC May contract, and except for those who were short the contract and can't possibly deliver crude either, you have only those who can take oil into storage. That's actually a potentially very profitable trade – to just buy this discounted oil, store it for one month, and then deliver it to the June CL buyers. However, there is a very limited public who can take advantage of this.

Conclusion
The extreme selling you're seeing in the front-month crude contract today, which will make the news everywhere today, is driven by this simple mechanism. There is extreme forced selling in this front-month contract because any speculators that can't take physical delivery have to sell these contracts today, no matter what.

This isn't happening in Brent simply because Brent crude contracts settle in cash. Thus, any speculator can take them to their expiry without being forced to sell at any price, a "luxury" not available in WTIC crude futures.
 

Kyougar

Cute Animal Whisperer
Member
Nov 3, 2017
9,349
guys thats for May contract, they expire tomorrow thats why everyone just selling at whatever price. Look price for June/July contracts for better sense.

the underlying issue doesn't solve itself just because there is a new month ahead. Oil could be 20$ again tomorrow, but it would drop again in the following days.