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NYT: one year from Election Day, Trump trails Biden in battleground states but leads against Warren
- Thread starter OtherWorldly
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Bernie is very much in contention for all early voting states. A non Biden candidate taking 2 or 3 blows the race wide open. Especially given the high proportion of undecided primary voters.
So Sanders and Warren VP is the best odds then?
Edit: yeah I know that's too optimistic.
I can't believe how many people wouldn't vote for Warren on the basis of her being a woman.
Edit: yeah I know that's too optimistic.
I can't believe how many people wouldn't vote for Warren on the basis of her being a woman.
Warren wasn't up to much at the beginning of the race, and she has gotten a large boost of liberal media coverage over the last few months, which no doubt accounts for a lot of her increase in polling. Certainly over here in the UK it is rather funny how they push her versus say Sanders, but not surprising coming from them I suppose. She has increased her numbers in the polls...But that can easily flip again...If you think minute by minute polling alone tells the whole story, then I think you are being a little naive. she has a competitive advantage at the moment, but is far from unassailable.
Bernie has a more solid portfolio of actual progressive policy positions he has put out there. I mean outside the US, most progressives I have talked to hear can easily see differences between Warren and Sanders, but over in the US there has been this weird messaging that the two are interchangeable on policy positions. Sure on some, but not on other significant elements. I mean she would be my second choice, but I think there is a need for someone more combative, to push the boundaries further, since the US has skewed so badly in the last few years - and far longer in foreign policy terms.
deep seated racism and misogyny runs real deep my dude, along with a nonstop propaganda machine that works wonders on selfish fools.
it's amazes me the poorer folks I know will vote for Republicans who've demostratingly trying to either take away or make it harder to get benefits and such.
they'll then blame the government and politicans, but the wrong ones. it's a disease.
I don't give a shit about this stuff so far out. Wait until someone is picked and then take these a little bit more serious.
Official nominations don't happen until next summer at the Conventions. Unless there's a close contest... we should have an idea by early spring.
It's all about that Era bubble.....
This place doesn't represent reality in the slightest and the sooner people realize that the better. Voters in California, NY and any other deep blue state do not matter. You have to cater to the people in the states mentioned in the poll if you want to win. It's a hard pill to swallow but that's the cold reality.
It'll take more than the repeated protestation from people who absolutely hate him.
Even in this polling he isn't third unless I'm misreading the data
Not even thing, we should know March 4. Cali and Colorado being on super Tuesday pretty much kills all that "wait until Cali" nonsense of past
Correct me if I'm wrong but neither will Warren or Sanders given it requires a constitutional amendment?
I think people realize what is at stake now and you will see that less of that nonsense. And 2018 was a good sign for turn out
Low information voters
I mostly just want Trump to lose, so if Biden is what it takes to make that happen I will vote for him in the primary
I hope that's the case... in NJ we ended up having an impact last time... and we're usually so damn late in the process that it's near pointless in any other "normal" election year.
I would hope that people know what's at stake now. It's less about your personal feelings towards your candidate of choice, and more about getting rid of the larger evil.
That's the spirit.
The PR overtime being done for Biden is hilariously sad. News outlets tripping over themselves to present the narrative that only Biden can defeat Trump. This is Hillary all over again. I'm not going to act like I know which of them can beat Trump, but I know that Biden does not have this in the bag.
Fuck it, I'll vote for Biden.
Warren or Harris as VP can just roll him into the White House 'Weekend at Bernies' style. And if that's the only way to get stupid misogynistic idiots to vote a Dem in and rid us of Trump in battleground states, then so be it. This country still has a long way to go on deep rooted sexism. It's a fucking embarrassment how much it was hand waved away in 2016.
Warren or Harris as VP can just roll him into the White House 'Weekend at Bernies' style. And if that's the only way to get stupid misogynistic idiots to vote a Dem in and rid us of Trump in battleground states, then so be it. This country still has a long way to go on deep rooted sexism. It's a fucking embarrassment how much it was hand waved away in 2016.
Not surprising at all.
Historically difficult to unseat a sitting president, especially with a good economy.
Dems haven't settled on candidates yet, and right now, only the diehard primary voters are engaged.
Polling will become more clear next year, but 2020 still won't be easy for Dems.
True for the most part about the Era-bubble, but voters in Blue States are still important. There are crucial state & local elections to win.
Historically difficult to unseat a sitting president, especially with a good economy.
Dems haven't settled on candidates yet, and right now, only the diehard primary voters are engaged.
Polling will become more clear next year, but 2020 still won't be easy for Dems.
True for the most part about the Era-bubble, but voters in Blue States are still important. There are crucial state & local elections to win.
This is a poll, not a "narrative." Do you think the Times is cooking the numbers, or what?
My pick right now is Warren and I will be caucusing in Iowa. If the polls show a trending towards these numbers, yes I will switch to Biden for the caucus.
Much as you might not like it, it's perfectly possible that it was true then and still is
Expecting rationality here is a fool's errand
I don't view polls as objective data. Polls said Hillary would win. Sorry. Not buying it, especially not this early.
"To keep the president in check"
Can't trust suburban voters, they are just as bigoted if not more so than rural voters. I wish that there was a way to get rid of the electoral college, it only helps give the worst people in the country the most power.
I will continue to support Bernie in the Primaries, but if Biden were to win the nomination, then I would support him easily. I will do everything it takes to keep Trump out of office. Also, with what happened in 2016 regarding polls, I'm reluctant to believe any of them until people are actually voting.
If it makes you feel any better, it says in the methodology that the Michigan results should be looked at with a degree of caution due to fewer respondents than they wanted.
Warren has no draw outside of College towns,
everything about "college elites" complaints, she can't shake that off
Bernie >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Warren
Biden >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Warren
everything about "college elites" complaints, she can't shake that off
Bernie >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Warren
Biden >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Warren
I don't think this election will be centered around the economy, and if it is, one of the factors leading to Trump was things like coal workers being out of jobs and stuff, hasn't that not gotten better?
When it comes to those specific states people better take this seriously. Especially that Pennsylvania one. As someone that lives here there is a lot of red here and trump has made a lot of people feel comfortable in ways that will terrify you.
I'm not saying take these numbers as the gospel truth but they shouldn't be ignored. They should be apart of the planning and attack strategy. I think people need to be very mindful that we're not just running up the numbers in blue states.
Time to panic everyone.
It's complicated, but it boils down to an image thing she can address in the longrun. I wouldnt put too much stock in this. Most Michiganders I talk to about politics still dont really know of her too well.
People here dont really trust politicians too much, but conversely will give a ton of points to personality.
Normally I chalk a lot of dislike of her to her being a woman in politics, but Michigan never seems to have any problem electing women for governor, mayors, and both state and federal congresses.
They were willing the die by the thousands for the right to own slaves that they could never afford, let alone an economic system that kept them poor and limited their mobility.
They'll be just fine to merely vote against their interests.
I feel this way too often these days.
It's complicated, but it boils down to an image thing she can address in the longrun. I wouldnt put too much stock in this. Most Michiganders I talk to about politics still dont really know of her too well.
People here dont really trust politicians too much, but conversely will give a ton of points to personality.
Normally I chalk a lot of dislike of her to her being a woman in politics, but Michigan never seems to have any problem electing women for governor, mayors, and both state and federal congresses.
They were willing the die by the thousands for the right to own slaves that they could never afford, let alone an economic system that kept them poor and limited their mobility.
They'll be just fine to merely vote against their interests.
I feel this way too often these days.
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Wow, non-college educated white Americans continuing to fuck everyone else, themselves included, over. Who could have possibly foreseen this? Anyway, it's early and the Dem votes are split between multiple candidates so I'm not too worried at this point
All those coal workers who lost their jobs will 100% vote Trump. They don't give a fuck.
Personally, I think Bernie and Warren can beat Trump, and even Biden could slip in with a victory, but it will be close for him, considering all of his baggage going against him. Regardless, still voting Bernie in the primary, and any Democrat in the GE.
You'd think after decades of men fucking America up they'd be open to a woman giving it a shot, but nope. Men are still the same now as they were when women weren't allowed to vote. If Clinton had been a man she'd have won by a landslide.
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