As Census Count Resumes, Doubts About Accuracy Continue to Grow (Published 2020)
Officials project optimism. But a chorus of experts says the pandemic and politics could lead to a deeply flawed count.
www.nytimes.com
With the 2020 census into its final stage, more than one in three people hired as census takers have quit or failed to show up.
Many still on the job are going door to door in areas that largely track places where there are elevated rates of coronavirus infections, according to calculations by the National Conference on Citizenship, Civis Analytics and The New York Times.
And with 38 million households still uncounted, state and local officials are raising growing concerns that many poor and minority households will be left out of the count.
Wracked by the pandemic and politics and desperately short of time, the last stage of the national population count — a constitutional mandate to tally everyone living in the United States accurately — is unfolding in historic doubt.
Unlike the Postal Service, another fundamental American institution suddenly under siege and where problems have unleashed a furious public backlash, the census is racing toward a finale largely out of sight. But many experts are increasingly convinced that a public reckoning over a deeply flawed count may be unavoidable.
"If the current situation holds, I do not expect a census of the quality that the Census Bureau will even want to release the data," Kenneth Prewitt, the Columbia University professor who oversaw the 2000 census, said at a University of Virginia forum this month.
Mr. Prewitt's view is shared by many state and local census officials and private experts. "This is truly, truly, hair-on-fire awful," said one government research contractor long involved in census issues, who declined to be identified because of an employment prohibition against being quoted.
That said, the bureau has perhaps more uncounted households than at this stage in any previous census — and under the worst circumstances in memory. Just as crucial, the speedup in the deadline gives experts less time to check the data than ever before. Inside Census Bureau headquarters, officials are assessing which quality checks must be jettisoned and data-processing software rewritten to finish on time.
And on the ground, the early door-knocking has been riddled with kinks like sloppy training, a clunky mobile app and unsettling encounters with people not wearing masks and who were unconcerned about spreading the coronavirus to the stranger on their porch.
Such problems have raised doubts among experts about whether the 2020 population totals will be accurate enough for crucial national decision making. The numbers are used to divide the 435 seats in the House of Representatives among the states, draw political maps nationwide and fairly dispense more than $1.5 trillion in federal grants and aid annually.
Shortfalls could mean a severe undercount of the poor and people of color, and an overcount of whites — skewing both political representation and federal largess further away from already undercounted populations.
No census is perfect, and many have been marred by incidents like fires in 1890 and 1980, lost records and even skulduggery.
But none has been rejected as fatally flawed. Indeed, no metric for a flawed census exists. Congress, which has legal authority over the census, could make that judgment, and a lawsuit could seek to. Either would put the census in uncharted waters.
It really can't be overstated how much fuckery is going to happen if the census data ends up being as bad as it looks. It affects so much of how our government operates and it's being sabotaged in plain sight. Please fill it out if you haven't already and encourage everyone you know to do the same. And hell, if you're young and healthy, consider applying to be a door-knocker cause it looks like they need all the help they can get in this final month.