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NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
Something that is actually happen with a guy i used to respect. How sad...
But that's not gonna be the case.
Much love
I know you all have to see me stress and complain sometimes and I apologize for that
But I'm realizing there are more awesome people out there than negative ones. The shitty ones unfortunately just tend to stand out more.
I ain't leaving. The sales community is too important whatever BS I sometimes deal with. You've all been there for me. Important to return the favor
I never got too much shit. I got a little, my main thing was I just didn't think whatever benefit I brought to the community through leaks was worth it considering I wasn't trying to make a "business" out of it. All I was doing was taking needless risks and getting nothing tangible out of it. If I ever open a twitter account or a youtube about games I'll leak shit there where I can potentially make a name and a few dollars (Hint: I won't).
I hope you guys can somehow someday put into words (that won't put you in a tight spot or at risk) why is Nintendo the way it is. lol
like, with how bumpy was the ride during 2018, I'd love for you guys to come out and plain say "shit went like it did because nintendo decided this = ____________" and the blank is whatever the fuck made nintendo, for example, not reveal NSMBUX and more recently MP4 gameplay (or the trilogy at least) when they should have, considering all signs were pointing at it, among probably a dozen of other weird decisions that seem to mess up the flow of info.
not expecting it but if I could get a leaker/insider wish, that would be it.
like, with how bumpy was the ride during 2018, I'd love for you guys to come out and plain say "shit went like it did because nintendo decided this = ____________" and the blank is whatever the fuck made nintendo, for example, not reveal NSMBUX and more recently MP4 gameplay (or the trilogy at least) when they should have, considering all signs were pointing at it, among probably a dozen of other weird decisions that seem to mess up the flow of info.
not expecting it but if I could get a leaker/insider wish, that would be it.
don't you dare to use that slogan in public. i just secured the rights and it will be available on officially licensed merchandise during the upcoming ConBenjion 2019 (exact location and date still under negotiation).
It's a drag queen term. Snatching a person's wig off is basically exposing or coming (shading/sort of attacking) for them
Why would they show MP4 if it's not ready?
phantastic.We don't have any hard numbers for Astro-Bot yet but it has to be in the hundreds of thousands by now, in less than a year.
As you can see Astro-bot is significantly outpacing Christianity at the moment, probably over 200 years ahead. The real indicator has to be how it performs CoC (Century over Century) as Christianity didn't really blow up untill its 4th century with the widely hailed release of the Milan Edict in 313 AD. And an even bigger increase with the infamous Thessalonica Edict betrayal-ton of 380 AD, making it exclusive to the Roman Empire.
Based on what I've seen over the years, Nintendo makes and changes plans to the beat of their own drum, leaving many confused as to why they do what they do. Even the most reliable of insiders have been perplexed at what they did or didn't announce at any given time, or been caught out by Nintendo greenlighting and cancelling things behind the scenes. I imagine part of the problem is that so much of the decision making, power, and software/hardware development is centralized in Japan.
There needs to be one of those "what's going on in this thread" gifs except the punchline is that the thread is actually wholesome instead of horrifying.
Life Pro Tip -- The older you get, the more you will realize how that attitude applies to so many situations.
I don't even understand why people would be upset about Benji's prediction. Everyone with a half functioning brain should be able to predict that the Switch will be way above the competition considering how well successful and popular Nintendo products are doing in December. Smash is doing insane numbers and you don't expect it to move a lot of hardware? It's really not rocket science.
If you have a narrative to tell, you could conceivably say such mind-numbingly stupid things as "Smash sells only to established Nintendo fans." People can be dumb at times.
We should appreciate what Benji does because let's be honest, the situation with sales figures in the US is garbage. And that's not a dig at Mat since it's obviously not his decision.
I can see what a film made at the box office on the weekend before the weekend is even over. I can see sales figures for Blu-Ray/DVD each week. I can tell you Hamilton sold 10,766 tickets last week and Volvo sold 8,081 cars in the US in November. I can look at three different video game trackers in Japan every week and then get the top 500 each year (or is it top 1000).
And yet, there's zero public information about video games in its largest market. It's stupid, because I can't imagine anyone that actually pays for the NPD report would stop if they just released the top 20 with numbers each month and hardware. Those people want the full picture with revenue and accessories and everything broken down into minute detail.
So the only thing I can think of is the hardware vendors basically use their digital numbers as leverage against NPD to not release physical numbers. Which is dumb.
I can see what a film made at the box office on the weekend before the weekend is even over. I can see sales figures for Blu-Ray/DVD each week. I can tell you Hamilton sold 10,766 tickets last week and Volvo sold 8,081 cars in the US in November. I can look at three different video game trackers in Japan every week and then get the top 500 each year (or is it top 1000).
And yet, there's zero public information about video games in its largest market. It's stupid, because I can't imagine anyone that actually pays for the NPD report would stop if they just released the top 20 with numbers each month and hardware. Those people want the full picture with revenue and accessories and everything broken down into minute detail.
So the only thing I can think of is the hardware vendors basically use their digital numbers as leverage against NPD to not release physical numbers. Which is dumb.
I agree with you, and European video game sales tracking is even worse...... I'm super happy with the ISFE, because it's much more complete, but there are still no public numbers from Europe. The games industry is holding their cards so close to their chest. It's very immature as an industry. :(
And that immaturity is even more shown by the fact how more shady and shady the business practices of developers, especially AAA third party developers, have become. It seems like a little child that does everything wrong until a big daddy comes to regulate it.
Suspending my lurking of this thread to say thanks to Benji for all the info you share. I always enjoy reading your insights, especially when we get so little information from the US market.
Haters and fanboys will always be the same. They have their agendas and their beliefs, they isolate anything which can support their views and they shout fake news at anything which goes against them. There's no point engaging with people like that, and it would be a shame if they ruined sales discussion for the rest of us.
Haters and fanboys will always be the same. They have their agendas and their beliefs, they isolate anything which can support their views and they shout fake news at anything which goes against them. There's no point engaging with people like that, and it would be a shame if they ruined sales discussion for the rest of us.
Agreed. If anything, it would generate more interest and potentially more subscribers.
NPD stopped to share numbers in september 2010, so I don't think is related to digital data.
I think it's in the general interest of the industry not disclouse data for the overall public and NPD simply is following that, but it isn't hard for inverstors knowing pieces of NPD data, many sources provide info for their clients.
I always thought that it was related to their switch from units reporting to revenue reporting.
Acording to Sony PS4 has been the world's best selling console in 2018 too (see 2:13):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-FdMbwhKVQ
This has been brought up and says nothing about the full year 2018.
If you look to the bottom of the screen at 2:15 it says "based on sales of all consoles from 01/01/2014 to 30/09/2018".
Oops, I didn't see it.
It's weird they didn't include last quarter numbers, maybe they still don't have them and are waiting for the fiscal numbers.
But well, for October and November at least we know that according to NPD, in US PS4 was the best selling console too. If Europe follows a similar trend during October and November (remember it's Sony land) even if Switch sells more in December would be difficult to outsell PS4 worldwide in yearly sales.
In any case, we'll need to wait until Sony and Nintendo report their quarter numbers to see what happened.
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I feel like you're missing that the data only starts in 2014
People went over it in the Switch leading 2019 analyst thread but PS4 was only 1.61m ahead of Switch globally through September. That not a huge margin to cover for Oct-Dec given hisorical sales trends, it's even pretty likely Nintendo will come out ahead.
As they mention in the video PS4 has been the best selling console of the years 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and (if we don't count the last quarter) 2018. It's correct. So obviously if we merge all the years instead of counting them separatedly, PS4 is also the best selling console worldwide.
My mistake was that I thought that when they said 2018 I thought it was for the entire year but it didn't include the last quarter, I assume because they still don't have the numbers from Nintendo's report.
Yup, 1.61m is not something huge, but we know that at least in US PS4 outsold Switch in October and November. We don't know what happened these months in EMEA but if they followed more or less the US trend the difference between PS4 and Switch global sales for 2018 would be higher at the end of November and Switch in December would need to outsell PS4 for a huge margin.
Sure, Smash and Pokemon are huge, but also RDR2, CoD, FIFA, Spiderman, AC and God of War + other ones are quite big, and PS4 is cheaper, so I'm not sure that Switch would outsell PS4 worlwide in December by 2/3/whatever more millions needed. Even if I think that Switch may outsell PS4 in December global sales, I think won't be by enough margin to cover the difference of the rest of the year.
In the same way I think people is underestimating how Super Mario Bros U Deluxe will sell and how it will help Switch HW sales for the current quarter. Even if Galaxy was released, many Switch users didn't have WiiU so it will be a like new Mario game for them, as did happen with Mario Kart or Smash.
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I've just been to my local Argos and they are completely out of Benji Amiibos, loads of Tidux ones available though
It's incredible how people can't wait a bit to get HW numbers on a global scale and just need to keep insisting on who sold the most based on whatever floats their boat.
Not to make it about me, but let's make it about me for a moment. I leaked and teased some Activision stuff in the past and in some cases it was to ease the anxiety by certain folks.
Most of the time it was for my own entertainment, but there were situations where just having better data makes for a better discussion.
How well certain games hold in CCU vs others in the same franchise or across franchises is actually interesting. For a while I contrasted BF vs COD and BF had CCU numbers per platform public while COD doesn't.
But that's however my motivation, even if it is a bit to increase my status on a forum it's still ultimate good to have better quality discussion if we can agree with the numbers instead of collecting pictures of how empty shelves are.
Can you just read threads you posting in before commenting?
We know that the Switch outsold the PS4 considerably in Japan in Q4 (still missing Week 52), Switch = 1.538m and PS4 = 0.409m. We are also assuming from what we have heard from MagicPork and Benji that the Switch is also going to be substantially ahead in December NPD, maybe 1+ million. Also if the gap isn't that large in the UK, my assumption would be that the Switch is ahead in its stronger EU markets like France and Germany. It will be very close either way.
Other than Japan, do we have any insight into console sales figures for any other countries? For example, anywhere in Europe? I know we get weekly rankings for software in UK, France, Italy, etc., but as far as I'm aware no real figures, let alone hardware?
They just released the top 20 software rankings with actual software numbers for 2018 in the UK. It's certainly not to the level of Japan's tracking but it's better than what the US tends to get.
Which begs the question, why can they do it and not the NPD? Are companies cool with their data being public in Europe but not the US?
Btw should we expect UK software numbers every week now or it's just a one time new year present?
I have no idea. I'm guessing it's just an end of year thing.
What I do recall hearing though is that they'll begin tracking and reporting with digital software sales in the UK now, at least for those publishers willing to report them. So probably the same situation NPD has.
Just saw that when AEVI (Spanish Association of the Videogame, includes the Spanish offices of the main publishers and some indies) reported the best selling games in Spain during November 2018 -December report still not available- mentioned that their new reference for game sales is Games Sales Data (GSD), "new reference panel for European sales leaded by the Interactive Software Federation of Europe (ISFE)":
http://www.aevi.org.es/los-videojuegos-mas-vendidos-noviembre-2018/
I don't know if ISFE / GSD numbers are public somewhere or if they track HW sales too, but at least they aren't posted in their website:
https://www.isfe.eu/
Like in US, I think in EMEA Pokemon and Smash will drive Switch sales while Spiderman, God of War, RDR2 and the typical FIFA/CoD/AC/etc will drive PS4 sales, and all this combined with the typical Christmas and Black Friday sales will result on great sales in both platforms. It's hard to predict if in EMEA's Q4 there is going to be a 1-2M (or who knows if more counting Canada, Latin America, etc) difference in one side or another.
We'll need to wait until the Oct-Dec reports from Sony and Nintendo to know who moved more consoles worldwide during the calendar year 2018. In any case I don't expect a bit difference, maybe maximum 2-3 million.
Edit:
From the "UK video games market now 80% digital" thread's OP:
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2019-01-02-uk-video-games-market-is-now-80-percent-digital
UK 2018 console sales. Seems things are pretty tied but with PS4 lead:
PS4: flat year-on-year, best selling console (~1.1M)
Switch: biggest growth, up 20%+ (~820k+)
XB1: total is over over 2.4 million (~500k+)
For comparision purposes, UK 2017 sales were:
PS4 1.1M
Switch 680k
XB1 700k
http://www.aevi.org.es/los-videojuegos-mas-vendidos-noviembre-2018/
I don't know if ISFE / GSD numbers are public somewhere or if they track HW sales too, but at least they aren't posted in their website:
https://www.isfe.eu/
Yup, I also think it's going to be pretty close. If this 1M+ Switch lead in December's US NPD ends being true it will depend of EMEA's Q4 because without considering them it would be a "small" lead on Switch's side for 2018 worldwide sales.
Like in US, I think in EMEA Pokemon and Smash will drive Switch sales while Spiderman, God of War, RDR2 and the typical FIFA/CoD/AC/etc will drive PS4 sales, and all this combined with the typical Christmas and Black Friday sales will result on great sales in both platforms. It's hard to predict if in EMEA's Q4 there is going to be a 1-2M (or who knows if more counting Canada, Latin America, etc) difference in one side or another.
We'll need to wait until the Oct-Dec reports from Sony and Nintendo to know who moved more consoles worldwide during the calendar year 2018. In any case I don't expect a bit difference, maybe maximum 2-3 million.
Edit:
From the "UK video games market now 80% digital" thread's OP:
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2019-01-02-uk-video-games-market-is-now-80-percent-digital
UK 2018 console sales. Seems things are pretty tied but with PS4 lead:
PS4: flat year-on-year, best selling console (~1.1M)
Switch: biggest growth, up 20%+ (~820k+)
XB1: total is over over 2.4 million (~500k+)
For comparision purposes, UK 2017 sales were:
PS4 1.1M
Switch 680k
XB1 700k
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Probably Switch being last in unit sales.
Sure. Full year charts are always the most interesting for me.
Sure. Full year charts are always the most interesting for me.
That wouldn't be a big headline. Unless people have gotten so Benji crazy that, "Benji was wrong!" Deserves a headline.