Based on commentary over the last year, it really seems like the biggest factor by far is the cost of larger game cards. Regardless of system power, $15+ for a 32GB card is untenable.
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NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
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Ehh, I don't know, there's always one more step we can imagine that might make things much better. Back in the Wii days it was "It's not just that it's underpowered, but if only it wasn't so dissimilar to the other machines ports would be viable", and Switch is closer to its competition than that imaginary machine would've been.
Boy, I can't count. I guess it would be three years. Time flies.
But yeah, given how confusing the whole NEW 3DS thing was I'm not sure how much faith I've got in that approach.
I feel like switch is a different case from the wii for a couple of reasons. I actually expect a big increase of 3rd party support next year. Call of duty at least
$20+ actually.
Getting those costs down really needs to be a top priority for Nintendo.
3DS and New 3DS shows they will struggle with branding but do it anyway.
2 and a half is a good compromise, and probably the closest if it does come in 2019.
In thinking about this more, I'm not sure about the whole devaluing aspect, but given that we know Nintendo is subsidizing game card costs on the smaller cards, a price drop might be further out than we think. Consider that, as mentioned in my other post, the larger size cards are still prohibitively expensive, Nintendo may put hardware profits into addressing that issue rather than cutting hardware price.
Yeah I had the $20 figure in my head initially, but it sounded too high, and I didn't want to go dig for the number LOL.
I was wondering: is the current week we are in a huge week as well? It's conceivably the week where many folks can spend their Christmas gift money, although most will probably have received an actual gift item, of course. How does it compare to other weeks in December?
Maybe anecdotal but here in Spain I saw several kids with switches after Christmas so I am guessing they're selling quite well.
There's no basis for this whatsoever and Gamefreak doesn't have a history of delays either. It'll be 2nd half 2019
Well, it could be like a mid-cycle revision like the 1X and Pro were. They both still run the same games but much better. Switch could benefit from that.
Well, if Nintendo does one thing well, it is to sell at Full price. Nintendo customers usually are tuned to buy at full prices of 299$ or 60$. So, a 399$ revision won't be the worst thing ever if the base Switch drops to 249$.
I feel Switch has shown enough in its first 18 months that it is here to stay and 3rd parties will want to take advantage of it. Imagine COD selling at 60$ for 6-8 months on Switch whereas selling at half the price on Xbox or PS. There is a big opportunity there since there are more units in customer hands. So, 3rd parties will definitely bring their AAA games if the Switch was 30-40% more powerful in my opinion.
I would take Doom and Wolfenstein as the performance metrics for COD on Switch, it does run reasonably after all the patches but 60 fps is very hard, so a more powerful Switch would be beneficial if it can do 720p at 60 fps.
Yeah, this is what I expect. I just don't think the potential performance increase will necessarily attract new developers, as they'd still have to baseline for the original Switch.
Not confirmed,but there are multiple rumours saying it will happen, most notably the WSJ one.
It's rumored by the WSJ to come out in the second half of 2019. We don't know if that means calendar or fiscal but either way it'll only be a few months away from when the PS4 Pro released, launch aligned.
I don't think you said anything wrong. Some people are just very defensive about sales data for some reason.
yeah, i noticed. i guess that'll teach me to pick my words more carefully
GBA SP came just under two years in
DS Lite came a year & a half in
3DS XL came a year & a half in
Switch will be late for a refresh by nintendo standards(assuming it's not a DSi/NN3DS style cpu boost where it gets exclusive games)
You seem confident the Switch will outsell the ps4 for the year in the US. Do you think the Switch will outsell ps4 worldwide for the year?
Why would a more powerful mid-gen Switch model increase third party support?
The games would still need to work on OG Switch. Unless you're expecting games from third parties only for Switch Pro - which would be nonsensical given it would only have a fraction of the install base of OG Switch.
Personally I think we'll see third parties with exclusive games aimed specifically at the Switch demographic, rather than just PC/XB/PS ports. Don't forget that next gen is on the horizon and the gap between even a potential Switch Pro and PS5 is going to be gigantic compared to even the existing gap. Third parties are going to be planning ahead to next gen at this point as they greenlight their future projects.
But Switch is selling incredibly well, as is the software, to the point where it is viable for third parties to greenlight Switch exclusive projects which will also have lower budgets compared to next gen stuff.
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I think Benji's only got US info, so not exactly a fair question.
We know it's kicking the crap out of PS4 in Japan, and may edge it out in the US, but I gather Sony has a stronger foothold in the rest of the world, so beating PS4 worldwide seems like a big ask.
You still doubt this gen has/will have way more releases than last one? ;) These store fronts are adding software almost at Steam's pace nowadays.
Switch should still outsell the PS4 WW going by each company's forecast, 20 million for Switch and 17.5 for PS4.
The benefits of developing with a powerful system as the base has proven beneficial ( Forza Horizon 4 as an example), so a more powerful Switch pro would atleast allow a lot of 3rd parties to get the game running at a decent clip & the base Switch would benefit too. As more games start doing it, the base Switch experience will also get better since the Devs have had more time with the machine . Even if the base Switch experience was kinda subpar, I think it would not be terrible ( Xbox One vs Xbox One X).
My commentary around release count has always been about physical software and how it impacts retail.
Got it - though I'd imagine a deluge of digital releases impacts retail, even factoring in the increased digital conversion rates with "standard retail" software.
But Sony forecast its 17.5 millions unit sold, and Nintendo its 20 M shipped. Only if one outperforms or underperforms or if many switchs stay on the shelves the sells will be identical.
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My mistake then, so by forecasts Nintendo was a margin of 2.5 Millions. I think they will stay close but Nintendo should stay ahead
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If that was an official forecast made during an earning results briefing then it is indeed 17.5M shipped, not sold through.
These companies don't make forecasts in sell-through, they do forecasts in units sold to retailers.
My mistake then, so by forecasts Nintendo was a margin of 2.5 Millions. I think they will stay close but Nintendo should stay ahead
I don't want to overhype myself but if they come close to 2.5 million, damnnnnnn. I'll echo what others are saying that 2019 will be just insane. Pokémon gen 8 + animal crossing + revision + price cut could bring it up to peak DS/wii sales next Nov/Dec.
Curious how 3rd parties will respond, it's a weird time with next gen right on the horizon and big 3rd parties all gearing up for that.
Curious how 3rd parties will respond, it's a weird time with next gen right on the horizon and big 3rd parties all gearing up for that.
Cobalt? Doom Eternal? Beyond Good and Evil 2? Dying Light 2? Nioh 2?
The original comment was "Most 3rdPartys devs are already on board - EA is the only mayor exception with their lackluster support." You just hit the nail on the head, the hardware will continue to be a problem for third party support until Nintendo ever decides to release hardware comparable to Xbox and Playstation.
ehrrrrrrr Doom Eternal is coming and so is Mortal kombat 11.
Nioh 2 is a ps4 exclusive Lol.
As many have said card cost is the bigger issue compared to hardware power. Nobody is going to use a 32GB game card when they cost the publisher $20+ a piece.
And Doom Eternal is coming.
Doom is coming to switch. One of the developers of dying light 2 didn't rule out a switch port when asked
Is nioh even coming to Xbox? I thought it was a PS4/pc game.
And for beyond good and evil 2 have we even seen anything outside of some proof of concept stuff?
I dont know if last years Japan figures for sold and shipped units should be taken like baseline for something because last Q3 in Japan Switch was almost all time sold out.
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it's a steam indie 2d plateformer game released by mojang and i have no idea why he used that game
Lol, sorry. I meant Control by Remedy.
I've said this a thousand times over, but no one seems to listen nor do they want to believe that game card cost has been a bigger obstacle than hardware power. At least half a dozen major third-party games have been explored and considered for Switch but put on hold or canned due to game card cost.
I don't want to say anything conclusively, but Switch seems to be selling well in Mexico, could that have contributed to bigger results in December?
I would really like to know how much it has sold in Mexico so far
I would really like to know how much it has sold in Mexico so far