I wouldnt call Doom Eternal a "smaller graphically intensive game" tho.
There is enough room for both tbh, Switch will not get every big AAA game but it might get some.
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NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
I wouldnt call Doom Eternal a "smaller graphically intensive game" tho.
There is enough room for both tbh, Switch will not get every big AAA game but it might get some.
capcom' support is laughable too in terms of big releases. they only put ps2 and 3ds ports Lol
mm 35% is good I guess
They had no problem doing exactly that with the Wii, which was an even bigger monster.
The wii didn't have traditional controls which was i think one of the big problems.
The Americas account for 40% so if we assume 10% Canada and a 2,5 million December its likely Nintendo shipped north of 5 million units to that region in Q3. Shipments are usually 10 to 20 % higher than the sell trough.
That would put them on track to go significantly over the 20 million forecast.
That would put them on track to go significantly over the 20 million forecast.
Wii got a lot of third party games really. Just not the ones that gamers cared about.
And the power difference was much bigger.
I also dont cxare about most EA output for PS4/XBO - doesnt mean EA isnt supporting those consoles.
Lets see how things will look like next FY - Capcom already made it clear in 2017 that they would need to +2 years to have games people would expect for them on Switch.
(u)(hhhhhh)
U = 21
H = 8
8x6 = 48
21x48 = 1008
1008 = in thousands.
PS4 is 1,008,000 units.
One point of comparison: Nintendo announced 4.8M sell-through in the US by the end of December,but total shipments of The Americas were 5.94M by the same point. If the same ratio holds,then Americas shipment for Q3 could be about 5.1M.
No big publisher ignored the Wii.
Their output might have not been for you - but that doesnt mean they didnt support the system.
PS. "Just fine" - you do realize how many pubs/devs had to close shop during that generation right ? lol
If 2.5M = 3/4 of the "americas" share -> it gives 3.125M sell-through with Canada included. Factor in 10% to 20% for the shipment and the range is 3.4-3.7M in December.
With the 1.3M sold in November (adding Canada's share -> 1.625M) giving a range from 1.7 to 2M, roughly.
I don't have the exact October numbers in mind but yeah, they must have shipped between 5.3 and 6M in Q3 in the "americas" region, going by these rough figures.
Which would be enough for the 11M figure people thought they needed a while back. Even just going by the lower estimate.
With the 1.3M sold in November (adding Canada's share -> 1.625M) giving a range from 1.7 to 2M, roughly.
I don't have the exact October numbers in mind but yeah, they must have shipped between 5.3 and 6M in Q3 in the "americas" region, going by these rough figures.
Which would be enough for the 11M figure people thought they needed a while back. Even just going by the lower estimate.
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oh I agree that overall it should sell more (for the year) and don't even straight out deny that it could sell also more during holidays. I just don't agree that it's given because of price cut and overall better library as we have seen many times (PS4 the recent) as it depends on other factors too (like when those price cuts and releases happen). Especially December this year is inflated by Smash beyond normal December. That will be hard to match without equally big game releasing in December.
Japan is nearly flat in sell through but given it was virtually sold out there all last year shipments this year should be significantly up. Not necessarily the ~50% up for Q3 needed to maintain the 25% ratio and hit the goal but it should still be up fairly high.
Not sure why people are surprised it's looking like PS4 will sell under a million in December
They sold just over a million last year with some promotions and this November was down from last year by a good margin even with the $199 deal again
They sold just over a million last year with some promotions and this November was down from last year by a good margin even with the $199 deal again
Overcrowding is a common problem for most digital platforms and even putting games on sales don't give much visibility since many games are continually put on sales.
At least Switch doesn't suffers from software droughts.
Of course being featured in a Nintendo's news or having good word of mouth help the situation.
It will be interesting to look for Nintendo digital sales in the coming years.
They are so far behind the competition that there is ample room to improve and the industry and consumers are trending over a digital transition.
A triple digit growth in this fiscal year is likely IMO.
I have to use the search function in the eShop to even find Picross at this point, there are so many games on there.
Part of the trouble is that the artwork for some of the eShop game listings look like covers to those cheap <$10 CDs in the "game" section at a non-game store like Staples or something (anyone ever come across "Chicken Hunter"?).
The eShop is getting more and more of these titles in. Some may actually be pretty good, but getting more difficult to tell. Still, there's always something to buy on there, curious to see what happens next year.
Part of the trouble is that the artwork for some of the eShop game listings look like covers to those cheap <$10 CDs in the "game" section at a non-game store like Staples or something (anyone ever come across "Chicken Hunter"?).
The eShop is getting more and more of these titles in. Some may actually be pretty good, but getting more difficult to tell. Still, there's always something to buy on there, curious to see what happens next year.
It's doable. When does Nintendo's fiscal year actually end? March?
Yeah I think they'll do it. I'd imagine January will be a decent month for them too.
Yeah so I guess we'll know at the end of April, unless they have some PR before that.
And at that point they'll have an even crazier goal for 2019 and we'll do it all over again.
Interesting question for 2018 is how close to projected delta (2.5M) the end result will be.
Probably because Ps4 is doing 1 million in 3 non holiday months and Xbox One is doing nearly 60% of the yearly sales in just November + December
So to be fair it is kind of weird if you look at the 2018 performance for the Ps4 platform.
Ps4 skews way less towards the holidays compared to Xbox and Nintendo.
Animal Crossing is going to be absolutely insane next year if Nintendo actually hits that 20M mark. If they actually get the mainline Pokemon out somehow as well next holiday I can't even imagine how many systems they're going to move.
Combine that with either a price drop/cheaper version of the switch to sell to a younger audience.
And yeah you have an insane 2019 for Nintendo.
I just think people did not expect Sony not to do anything and also not go all out with $199 shipment during BF again .
EDIT Found the data .
You gotta sign Nintendo and get those sweet eShop figures!
Maybe it's just bad optics on my part but big games continue to ignore Switch well into 2019. Metro, Rage 2, Devil May Cry 5. Did Switch even get Black Ops IIII?
No reason to drop to $199 dollars,the thing is selling gangbusters. Even a $249 price drop is not a certainty imo, though of course very well possible.
Last year, Q3 2017 hardware shipment :
1,77 M for Japan
2,92 M for the Americas
2,64 M for Others
Those games either started development way before anyone knew switch would be successful or would require too many downgrades to work.
You need to let future announcements guide you a bit better (such as Mortal Kombat).
The show goes on with or without you....though it'll be more boring without.
Unless there's a unforeseen crash in Q1 of 2019, yeah it should be reached without too many issues now.
So that puts "Other" at a higher than average share that quarter. Will be interesting to see how things pan out this quarter.
for this year I'm guessing something like
2,01m for japan
5,38m for the americas
4,23m for others
;P
Media create week 52 2017 (Dec 25 - Dec 31) :
3.312.619
Media create week 39 2017 ( Sep 25 - Oct 01 ) :
1.784.184
3.312.619 - 1.784.184 : 1.528.435
So for 1 528 435 for Media create, Nintendo counted 1,77 M for Q3 shipment.
I wonder what was estimated for NPD october, november and december 2017.
I just want to compare with 2,92 M shipment for the Americas.
3.312.619
Media create week 39 2017 ( Sep 25 - Oct 01 ) :
1.784.184
3.312.619 - 1.784.184 : 1.528.435
So for 1 528 435 for Media create, Nintendo counted 1,77 M for Q3 shipment.
I wonder what was estimated for NPD october, november and december 2017.
I just want to compare with 2,92 M shipment for the Americas.
It'd be silly to drop straight to $199. $249 in 2019 I think is the best we get. $199 around holiday 2020 at the earliest unless something major happens imo.
Depends on what that supposed new model is I think. If it's a premium/pro type device a bigger price drop might make sense. Even then though I don't think it would be $100.
Nah, release the theoretical "switch pro" at $324.99, drop og switch to $249.99.
I just don't see a model that justifies devaluing the switch like that this early in its life when it's already looking to continue breaking industry records at least in US.
Congrats to Switch if the 2 Million mark really happens.
I wish it was just 30-40% more powerful,3rd parties would be all over it. I think thats the only thing holding back 3rd parties now, lets hope the Switch Revision in 2019 does that.
I wish it was just 30-40% more powerful,3rd parties would be all over it. I think thats the only thing holding back 3rd parties now, lets hope the Switch Revision in 2019 does that.
I can't see a situation in which Nintendo would allow developers to release software that did not run on a base Switch only two years after release.
A new version every 3 years, with games needing to work on the previous model, would mean you effectively have a 6 year generation. I think they'd struggle with branding it in a way which informs people what the situation is though, so they probably won't.