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Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,880
Netherlands
I do think Dec Switch 2M is likely. Not a lock, but quite likely. I think it's 5 weeks like last year. But while Mario Odyssey was a behemoth, Nintendo's current roster is much more poised towards a Christmas pickup: Two big party games, a coop Pokemon and maybe some Labo.
 
Aug 26, 2018
1,793
Would you say the age of Sony is over?


The age of Sony would probably be over sooner than we thought.

PS4 is pushing a permanent cut to $199 anyway, having been at $299/399 so long and still competing (even outselling a brand new console globally) is quite strong.

If Europe disappeared tomorrow, for sure :)

I think people over-estimate the impact of winning NPD.

Sony wants to strike a balance between selling at higher price (299$, 399$) and selling lot of consoles at cheaper price (199$).They know what they are doing.
 

HardRojo

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
26,133
Peru
I see a lot of people responding to my posts with SOny sold out of spider-man bundles so they sold exactly what they wanted of that SKU. WHat happens if they didn't have that $200 dollar deal on? they would have been severely down compared to the competition?!
I... uh... I don't know how to respond to this in any manner that doesn't make it sound like I'm patronizing you, but think about it just a little bit, you don't even need to overthink it or anything. You're asking what'd happen if they didn't have a deal during the one month where people expect big deals. You can arrive at the answer by yourself, come on.
 

bombshell

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,927
Denmark
Consoles are flying and there are some very sensitive people it seems. Looks like if you aren't completely down with the record breaking sales of all consoles then you are against them.

There's nothing wrong with thinking the PS4 would have sold more, from all the hype about the spider-man bundle. I don't know what the one s pricing was like, but I do know that the xbox one before the X was getting trounced.

This is the misconception I was getting at. The only point in time this gen where the Xbox One was getting trounced in the US was in the 2017 six month lead up to Xbox One X because people understandably were waiting for that. The rest of the gen before that the Xbox One was not getting trounced in the US. People are so prone in their discussion arguments to conflate the much bigger worldwide sales gap with the US sales gap, which for the entire gen has been ~10% less sold than PS4.
 
Oct 31, 2017
12,085
I... uh... I don't know how to respond to this in any manner that doesn't make it sound like I'm patronizing you, but think about it just a little bit, you don't even need to overthink it or anything. You're asking what'd happen if they didn't have a deal during the one month where people expect big deals. You can arrive at the answer by yourself, come on.

What are the age of people who assume things like that? I'm like you: I don't mean to come off as patronizing, but if you're at least in your late teens, you should know that sales are frequent among all industries, and the Big Three are always putting out bundles during the holidays and Black Friday.
 

Liabe Brave

Professionally Enhanced
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,672
Liabe Brave Do you really think that the PS2 is the ceiling for the Switch ? (I am not talking LTD sales btw but peak month/year sales)
I would say it'll generally be below PS2 sales by year (though not by a huge amount). But due to concentration of sales into the holidays, Switch could definitely have better Nov/Dec results, especially next year. And scattered other months with big releases.

My personal views may not mean a whole lot, though. Predictions are a fool's errand, cuz data don't care.

Isn't it also 2nd highest November for ps4, including beating the Pro launch? I guess that's shockingly bad too...
It did beat the Pro launch, but it's third best for the platform, actually--both 2015 and 2017 were higher. (So 3 of the top 5 Novembers of all time belong to PS4.)

The Xbox One was below both the PlayStation 4 and the Switch during most months of the year, but its results was good because it was up YOY.
Being up YoY doesn't automatically make your results good. Xbox One in 2018 was up versus 2017 because last year was very low. Now being compared to the bright spot of 2017, it's (mildly) down.

The best comparison for the PlayStation 4 isn't the Switch or the Xbox One, but the year 2017 of the PlayStation 4. In November, PlayStation 4 is sharply down YOY, both in units and in revenue (and probably in profit) and sales will be probably down YTD at the end of the year.
Monthly sales are down YoY--though whether 13% is "sharply" could be debated--but you're wrong about YTD. The PS4 is up over 2017 through November, and most likely will end the year that way.

I understand Sony controlled how many Spider-Man bundles were sold. I guess the narrative here is Sony performed exactly how they wanted to perform and they didn't want any more sales?
Of course they'd be happy with more sales at price. The point is they weren't willing to allow more sales at a discount. While that imposed a limit to results, which no company is ever quite satisfied with, they knew ahead of time it would. That's why their shipment forecast has remained below last year's.

Good month for Sony and great month for Switch and Xbox given expectations.
"Good versus expectations" (or "great", or "bad", etc.) is completely underdetermined, though. Whose expectations? Sony clearly had in mind performance very close to what actually happened, so does that mean they did good? Joe Forum expected way over 2m sold, so does that mean it was a disaster? The whole idea is a shell game. Microsoft started the gen talking up the possibility of selling a billion units. This does not make Xbox One X the biggest failure in the history of consoles (since it's sold such a smaller portion of that than One S).
 
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Plinko

Member
Oct 28, 2017
18,576
Wow, what fantastic news for the industry. Really looking forward to what the years ahead bring.

Anyone heard any numbers for Yokai Watch Blasters? Such an underrated game but I feel like it completely tanked.
 

Azerth

Prophet of Truth - Chicken Chaser
Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,189
you guys realize that the billion units was for all of gaming right not jsut xbox
 

Roo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,049
Glad to see Crash is still doing good on Switch.
Other than that the lists are full of all the expected games, really.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
you guys realize that the billion units was for all of gaming right not jsut xbox

Oh, maybe that is what his actual quote was saying? But this article really took it out of context then:

Microsoft's senior vice president of Interactive Entertainment Business Yusuf Mehdi has stated that given the broad multimedia focus of Xbox One, there's no reason why it can't shift between 400 million and 1 billion consoles in its lifetime.

That's poor reporting if that's not what he said.
 

SantaC

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,763
Almost all big games see discounts this time of year, it's nothing new and not necessarily a sign of the games performance. Even #1 on the list is on sale for $30-$40 at multiple places right now. Happens every year.
Thank you. People should stop downplaying BFV. It did fine.

Go show those fuckers DICE.
 

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
The original quote from Yusuf Mehdi:

"We think you can go broader than a game console, that's our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units. That's how we're thinking of the Xbox opportunity as we go forward."
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
28,018
Yes, that quote is for all consoles in a decade long generation. He says the current gen is 300M total, next gen estimated at 400M total, and they figured that number could get to 1BN.

"Every generation, as you've probably heard, has grown approximately 30%. So this generation is about 300 million units. Most industry experts think the next generation will get upwards of about 400 million units. That's if it's a game console, over the next decade."
 

Azerth

Prophet of Truth - Chicken Chaser
Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,189
Oh, maybe that is what his actual quote was saying? But this article really took it out of context then:



That's poor reporting if that's not what he said.
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/microsoft-next-gen-console-sales-could-hit-1-billion/1100-6408879/
"Every generation, as you've probably heard, has grown approximately 30 percent," Mehdi said. "So this generation is about 300 million units. Most industry experts think the next generation will get upwards of about 400 million units. That's if it's a game console, over the next decade."
"We think you can go broader than a game console, that's our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units,"

he just thought that there way would help increase the normal gen bump
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/microsoft-next-gen-console-sales-could-hit-1-billion/1100-6408879/
"Every generation, as you've probably heard, has grown approximately 30 percent," Mehdi said. "So this generation is about 300 million units. Most industry experts think the next generation will get upwards of about 400 million units. That's if it's a game console, over the next decade."
"We think you can go broader than a game console, that's our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units,"

he just thought that there way would help increase the normal gen bump

Right, that was in the other article too. Help increase it by up to 600M which is still quite ridiculous but yeah not quite a billion.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Assuming that increases that were seen in early console markets would extend and become exponential is an... aggressive... assumption.
 

Driver

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,053
Southern California
Wow, BFV number 3??? Thought it bombed. I got it free with my new GPU but I still haven't tried it.

I'm surprised Pokemon is so far down the list although I guess thats to be expected against RDR2 and CoD but Fallout 76 and BFV beat it? Thats unexpected.

Why are there no numbers for individual consoles?
 

Deleted member 31923

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
5,826
Yes, that quote is for all consoles in a decade long generation. He says the current gen is 300M total, next gen estimated at 400M total, and they figured that number could get to 1BN.

"Every generation, as you've probably heard, has grown approximately 30%. So this generation is about 300 million units. Most industry experts think the next generation will get upwards of about 400 million units. That's if it's a game console, over the next decade."

Still kind of crazy of a prediction even in this context. Also, Xbox 360 never got near 100 million units, and they haven't shared the actual number anyway. About 85 million?
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,579
Fallout at 4?! Man, there's no saving you guys. This basically confirms that Trump will be re-elected and someone from Jersey Shore will run for US presidency in the next 20 years.

Someone interested in buying a hand-made poo-amibo? I'm shipping everywhere. 30$ each, special xmas offer: buy 4 at the price of 5!
 

BeforeU

Banned for use of alt account
Banned
Oct 30, 2017
1,936
wow God of war was in 7th best selling game of the year. thats truly remarkable.
 

bombshell

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,927
Denmark
That quote is for all consoles not just for Xbox. Come on.
The first 400 million expectation was for all consoles, sure. But how is the rest of the range from 400 million to upwards of 1 billion talking about anything else than Xbox One?
"We think you can go broader than a game console, that's our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units. That's how we're thinking of the Xbox opportunity as we go forward."
 

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,149
Chicago
A very close month, all three consoles did great.

I'm surprised, but I guess I shouldn't be, that Fallout 76 charted so well. Did the early discounts help? Or is Fallout just being Fallout and selling well, despite the quality of the product?

Wow. This is really, really bad for the PlayStation 4, I'm very surprised (I expected more than 2M, at least 1.8M). Limited numbers of the 200$ bundle is one of the main reason, but probably not the only one.

#1 for the month, and one of Playstation's best Novembers is not "really, really bad" by any definition.

The narrative is that regardless what happens in December PS4 had an excellent year (surely among the best), XBO yearly sales will be up compared to 2017 to my big surprise and Switch will also be up but it's still unclear how high because it's the console that has the most potential for December.

"The narrative"? No, PlayStation 4 really did have an excellent year.

Can we please retire "narrative" in 2018? No? Crap.