Generally over the past couple years ~40% of Nintendo's global shipments have been to the Americas, not just the US. I'd guess the US would be closer to 35% or so.
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NPD HW Predictions for 2019 (entire year) - Closes Saturday, February 2
- Thread starter donny2112
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Generally over the past couple years ~40% of Nintendo's global shipments have been to the Americas, not just the US. I'd guess the US would be closer to 35% or so.
Depending on one's assumptions. But yeah, I'm projecting a stronger rev drop than unit drop. But that's just me. I'm wrong a lot.
Derp. Thanks!
35% of 22M is 7700, so I'm retaining my prediction regardless.
[NSW] 5900K
[PS4] 4500K
[XB1] 3900K
This was my logic too, though I'm a little pessimistic about NSW having the software to really boost it to the levels some are claiming absent a price drop. I think PS4 will drop harder than XB1 due to saturating its potential market already.
[PS4] 4500K
[XB1] 3900K
This was my logic too, though I'm a little pessimistic about NSW having the software to really boost it to the levels some are claiming absent a price drop. I think PS4 will drop harder than XB1 due to saturating its potential market already.
I've seen this thought more than a couple times the last few days and I just don't get it.
I would love to be wrong as it would have great implications for the size of the market, but is it wrong to say that the only consoles with this kind of sales numbers at this point in its life either fell off a cliff (Wii) or had the market practically all to themselves and were able to drop into the low 100's for pricing (PS2)?
Haha, nice. Switch will be interesting to watch throughout the year.
I can see XB1 selling closer to 3.8M, originally had it at 3.7M.
I think PS4 is going to take the biggest hit YOY in the non holiday months. Q1 and Q2 2018 were insane and I see nothing in 2019 that keeps sales even close to those numbers. September and October will also take huge hits given 2018 had Spider-Man, Black Ops, and Red Dead.
I do see Sony going $199 in December this year. XB1 $149 with the digital only SKU. Maybe they also do that with the One S and the digital box is even cheaper.
if there's a hardware revision and a price drop (both highly likely for my taste) there's enough stimulation to get a second console, a different console or just to replace the big and ugly one. or to enter this gen late to finally play whatever.
All valid. I'm just not super optimistic on how much market there is left to tap. Maybe if they had a price drop to $200 for a big part of the year, but I expect they'll drop to $250 this year and $200 next.
absolutely. i was on the "drop the price and cash in on software & services train" for years now. it only seems the industry just doesn't follow my advice.
but one day i will be right and it will be glorious.
Last time I overpredicted like crazy, so lowering all expectations:
[NSW] 6850k
[PS4] 3700k
[XB1] 3200k
[NSW] 6850k
[PS4] 3700k
[XB1] 3200k
PS4 still has some room for price cuts and unlike the Wii it still has great support when it comes to games.
Once below the $200 mark I also think a lot of people who usually only play on other platforms will maybe be able to justify the purchase, even if its just for the exclusives.
There is still a massive market of gamers left, who don't have Ps4s yet.
OP
OP
[NSW] 5975K
[PS4] 4775K
[XB1] 3475K
[PS4] 4775K
[XB1] 3475K
That's going to be easy for Sony. But how could MS be more aggressive with promotions in Dec 2019 than in Dec 2018 ? $150 price cut on all models ?
[NSW] 5920K
[PS4] 4320K
[XB1] 3490K
I'm curious to know why a small handful of predictions for the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are a few hundred thousand units gap between the two.
Bearing in mind that outside of 2016, the (median) gap has been nearly a million units between the two — ask yourselves; why is the gap suddenly going to shrink from a million to three or four hundred thousands in 2019?
p.s. I have lowered my Switch estimate after the recent quarterly financial report.
[PS4] 4320K
[XB1] 3490K
I'm curious to know why a small handful of predictions for the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are a few hundred thousand units gap between the two.
Bearing in mind that outside of 2016, the (median) gap has been nearly a million units between the two — ask yourselves; why is the gap suddenly going to shrink from a million to three or four hundred thousands in 2019?
p.s. I have lowered my Switch estimate after the recent quarterly financial report.
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[NSW] 6849k
[PS4] 4597k
[XB1] 3671k
If Nintendo doesn't do a revision/price drop I can see that number being way lower, probably just under 6 million.
[PS4] 4597k
[XB1] 3671k
If Nintendo doesn't do a revision/price drop I can see that number being way lower, probably just under 6 million.
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[NSW] 6000K
[PS4] 4500K
[XB1] 3600K
Taking into consideration that Nintendo will launch a new, cheaper Switch SKU and Sony going for a permanent price drop ($250, $199 during holiday season) soon.
[PS4] 4500K
[XB1] 3600K
Taking into consideration that Nintendo will launch a new, cheaper Switch SKU and Sony going for a permanent price drop ($250, $199 during holiday season) soon.
OP
OP
Using Welfare's estimates for YTD ...
ResetERA Prediction Results - 2019
Units
1. MrKlaw - 581,000
2. Davy - 670,000
3. Darth Smurf X - 680,000
3. chobel - 680,000
3. slavesnyder - 680,000
6. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 730,000
7. Ritz - 920,000
7. plusaflag - 920,000
9. Zedark - 980,000
10. fiendcode - 1,023,000
11. Astrogamer - 1,080,000
12. Myriotes - 1,090,000
13. Welfare - 1,180,000
14. Nocturnal - 1,245,000
15. Thardin - 1,280,000
15. Vervain - 1,280,000
17. Piston - 1,301,000
18. Alblowi - 1,307,000
19. GAF_Agg - 1,374,200
20. Peek-a-boo! - 1,470,000
21. Mbolibombo - 1,475,000
22. ArmGunar - 1,480,000
22. Ex-Actarus - 1,480,000
24. Elandyll - 1,580,000
25. OG_Thrills - 1,610,000
26. Kaveri - 1,660,000
27. Sterok - 1,680,000
28. Limabean01 - 1,697,000
29. Lexxism - 1,712,000
30. Barsi - 1,730,000
30. juicyb - 1,730,000
32. Slarvax - 1,770,000
33. Aleh - 1,780,000
33. James - 1,780,000
33. John Dunbar - 1,780,000
33. Mington - 1,780,000
37. El Manco - 1,800,000
38. Heruderu - 1,840,000
39. Andromeda - 1,855,000
40. ThisIsMyDogKyle - 1,880,000
41. ccieag - 1,960,000
42. DanR93 - 1,980,000
43. Starphanluke - 2,030,000
44. CosmicBolt - 2,070,000
45. Atheerios - 2,080,000
45. anexanhume - 2,080,000
45. only_fools_&_horses - 2,080,000
48. Corporate Clown - 2,090,000
49. kowalski - 2,180,000
50. FreddeGredde - 2,200,000
51. Dr. Mario - 2,260,000
52. Hammer24 - 2,377,000
53. Kissenkopf - 2,480,000
53. donny2112 - 2,480,000
55. Unkindled - 2,507,000
56. HighJump - 2,580,000
57. MrTired - 2,640,000
58. jaggies - 3,042,000
59. Gibordep - 3,080,000
60. MasterChumly - 3,380,000
61. Harris Katz - 3,580,000
62. Fdkn - 3,655,000
63. Nilaul - 4,782,000
Congratulations, MrKlaw! :D