NPD HW Predictions for 2019 (entire year) - Closes Saturday, February 2

[donny2112]

This thread is for predictions of U.S. Hardware sales as reported by NPD (or estimations thereof where no public data is available) for the entire 2019 year (January-December 2019).

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the upcoming year.
What do I win?: Bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Saturday, February 2nd. (This gives it some separation from the monthly thread.) Format use is absolutely required.

Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.

Format to use for predictions:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good

[XB1] 4500K
[XB1] 4500000
[XB1] 4,500,000

Bad

[XB1] 4.500.000
[XB1] 4.5 million
[XB1] 4.5m
[XB1] - 4.5 m
XB1 - 4 million


2018 Results

Rounded to nearest 10K YTD 2018

NSW: 5640K
PS4: 5330K
XB1: 4340K

Click to shrink...

2017 Results

What I have rounded to the nearest 10K

PS4: 5460K
NSW: 4880K
XB1: 4280K

Click to shrink...

2016 Results

Rounding to the nearest 10k

PS4 - 5090K
XB1 - 4730K
3DS - 2470K

Click to shrink...

WIU - 665K*

* Not all numbers were publicly available throughout the year, so using #1 predictor for missing month to fill in gaps.

2015 Results

Rounding to the nearest 10k

PS4 - 5740K
XB1 - 4940K
3DS - 2420K
WIU - 1340K

Click to shrink...

Potentially significant sales-related events for 2019
(No guarantee these'll all happen in 2019. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)

NSW - Pokemon (mainline game); Price drop
XB1 - Price drop; Next-gen rumblings
PS4 - Price drop; FFVIIR; Next-gen rumblings

2018 NPD Prediction Thread
2017 NPD Prediction Thread | results
2016 NPD Prediction Thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

 

[MrTired]

donny2112 have you got the results of last year's predict yet?

 

[donny2112]

Yep, did it shortly after the December results, since Welfare was nice enough to provide the YTD totals in his postings. :)

https://www.resetera.com/threads/np...-friday-february-2.18409/page-2#post-17131261

 

[Dr. Mario]

Sure why not

[NSW] 7430K
[PS4] 4350K
[XB1] 3900K

I'm afraid to give more to Switch, but logic should dictate about 22M sales, and if 40% of that is the US, we're looking at 8800K. Wii at its top did like 12M, so my prediction seems super conservative for NSMBU in the beginning, Animal Crossing during summer and Pokemon and Luigi's Mansion in the winter, maybe I'm doing something wrong.
I think PS4 still has some legs with price cuts and PSVR bundles, and One X will carry XB1, but rumblings of next gen which I expect to be revealed this year are going to significantly cut into both their sales.

 

[only_fools_&_horses]

[NSW] 6500K
[PS4] 5100K
[XB1] 3900K

Switch, as the youngest platform, has a maneuver to move units. PS4 and X1 are entering its 6th year. X1 was always on sale during whole 2018, especially during Holidays ( for 199/399 ) and didn't made any impact bigger impact. It's questionable will X1 manage to sell 4 mil. X1s in 2019. On the other hand, PS4 will have steady sales, MSRP would be down this year to 200/250 and has a high chance to break 5 million mark again in US.

 

[Atheerios]

[NSW] 6800K
[PS4] 4790K
[XB1] 3910K

Pokémon will be huge. Next-gen rumors will affect PS4 and XB1.

 

[plusaflag]

[NSW] 5750K
[PS4] 3830K
[XB1] 2920K

I am on the pessimistic side : I don't think XB1 and PS4 can fight the downtrend and it's been confirmed by its CEO now that Nintendo won't be aggressive with their pricing this year.

 

[Rouk']

it's been confirmed by its CEO now that Nintendo won't be aggressive with their pricing this year.

Click to shrink...

this doesn't mean much imo, they aren't going to announce anything until the next fiscal year.

 

[MrKlaw]

[NSW] 6500K
[PS4] 4400K
[XB1] 2999K

Switch has already had a lot of big hitters - not sure mainline pokemon will be that much bigger than pokemon Go + Smash. But they have room for price cuts as they haven't had one since launch and this year feels logical for that. Maybe some movement on other skus. I think will clearly win the year.

PS4 will suffer vs 2018 but there is some space for price cuts, perhaps a hardware revision to keep costs down? I don't think it'll suffer as much as XB

XB already seems to be slowing down last year - gap widening a little with PS4. Constantly on offer so unless they go permanently below $199 I can't see it helping stem a drop off in sales. Also MS have been more active in seeding Next gen thoughts so that can impact peoples' desire to buy in at this point, and Base XB1 is really starting to suffer on game engines

 

[Dinjooh]

Yep, did it shortly after the December results, since Welfare was nice enough to provide the YTD totals in his postings. :)

https://www.resetera.com/threads/np...-friday-february-2.18409/page-2#post-17131261

Click to shrink...

44. Dinjooh - 1,570,000

Click to shrink...

Who do I have to bribe to make my results better

 

[Gay Bowser]

[NSW] 7272K
[PS4] 5200K
[XB1] 3990K

I'm anticipating a new lower-cost Switch, a PS4 revision (and 25th anniversary model), and no major new hardware on the Xbox front. New consoles in 2020.

 

[Nocturnal]

[NSW] 6999K
[PS4] 4111K
[XB1] 3555K

 

[Zedark]

[NSW] 7000k
[PS4] 4200k
[XB1] 3200k

My reasoning is as follows:
Switch will have a better line-up of games,and a revision for this year is quite possible, so I expect them to be up YoY simply due to that. Additionally, Smash being out in December will help push significant units in the esrly part of the year (I expect Janaury and February to benefit significsntly from this). March could be a down month, but then starting April I think they will be up a lot every month. Then the holidays: I see Switch have an attractive price and better availability of that price for BF, so November should be up YoY (Pokémon will launch that month as well imo). Then December should be up YoY as well simply due to lower price, a new gen Pokémon game, and Animal Crossing having released in July (that's my prediction for AC).

PS4 and XB1 will see a notable downward trend in Q1 and Q2 due to the lacking hardware moving power of Fortnite compared to last year, and due to PS4 not having GoW (I think Days Gone won't be as big - not 2M first month big). Crackdown 3 won't do a lot for MS either, and therefore both will be down YoY. For Q1-Q2. The rest of the year is uncertain: PS4 had Spider-Man, but if this year has TLOU2, then I would say that the first party slate is about equal in terms of selling power (although I think Spidee-Man will be the bigger release in the US). The lack of RDR2 will also hurt units sales for both systems. I don't see Gears 5 or Halo Infinite releasing this year,unfortunately (just a feeling, I have to base my prediction on something!). That's why I foresee a 1M drop for both systems.

 

[Gibordep]

[NSW]: 5500K
[PS4]: 5100K
[XB1]: 3900K

 

[Mbolibombo]

[NSW] 6325K
[PS4] 4530K
[XB1] 3690K

 

[CosmicBolt]

[NSW] 6030K
[PS4] 4770K
[XB1] 3750K

 

[plusaflag]

this doesn't mean much imo, they aren't going to announce anything until the next fiscal year.

Click to shrink...

Well yes, there is that. But given Nintendo's current profitability, I think it's fair to assume that they want to at least beat their performance of the first six months of 2018. And in order to achieve that, they either have to sell their hardware at the same price, or increase their softwares sales. I don't know about how software will turn out so I'll stick to my argument.

Your point is valid though.

 

[Starphanluke]

[NSW] 7250K
[PS4] 4300K
[XB1] 3900K

 

[Vervain]

[NSW] 6450K
[PS4] 4420K
[XB1] 3730K

 

[Zedark]

Switch has already had a lot of big hitters - not sure mainline pokemon will be that much bigger than pokemon Go + Smash.

Click to shrink...

I think that a proper new gen Pokémon game plus Animal Crossing could be bigger than Let's Go + Smash - or at least as big. I foresee Animal Crossing doing 15M+ worldwide, and Benji has noted that Animal Crossing is a uniquely strong system seller due to its massive appeal to female audiences- audiences that so far the Switch has not tapped into (although the latest on that is still from Nintendo's graphic in 2017). Let's Go has done pretty good as a Pokémon, but I think with Switch software sales, a new gen pokémon should do more and therefore also push even more units. Smash is a beast,but new gen Pokémon + Animal Crossing is a massive combo to place in one year.

 

[Barsi]

[NSW] 5750K
[PS4] 4500K
[XB1] 3400K

I think will be a bad year in hw sales. Even with $50 price cut for PS4 and Xbox one.

If Sony can't bring any of the 3 big ips this year I would say PS4 can come close to 4 million only this year.

 

[Myriotes]

First guess:

[NSW] 6490K
[PS4] 4530K
[XB1] 3470K

 

[modiz]

hmm i wont make a prediction because i suck at this sort of thing, but lets say sometime early in the year, sony announces ps4 super slim and ps4 pro slim with 100$ permanent discount for each, do you think this could stop the ps4 sales decline this year?

 

[FreddeGredde]

[NSW] 6250K
[PS4] 4920K
[XB1] 3950K

 

[Zedark]

hmm i wont make a prediction because i suck at this sort of thing, but lets say sometime early in the year, sony announces ps4 super slim and ps4 pro slim with 100$ permanent discount for each, do you think this could stop the ps4 sales decline this year?

Click to shrink...

Yes. But I don't see it happening.

 

[El Manco]

[NSW] 5550K
[PS4] 4440K
[XB1] 3330K

 

[Gay Bowser]

hmm i wont make a prediction because i suck at this sort of thing, but lets say sometime early in the year, sony announces ps4 super slim and ps4 pro slim with 100$ permanent discount for each, do you think this could stop the ps4 sales decline this year?

Click to shrink...

I think a $50 reduction this year is more likely. The PS4 could drop again to $199 alongside the PS5 launch next year.

I can't think of a console in recent memory that dropped straight from $299 to $199.

 

[Unkindled]

[NSW] 6070K
[PS4] 5007K
[XB1] 3990K

 

[Welfare]

[NSW] 6700K
[PS4] 4300K
[XB1] 3600K

I predict 2019 to be the Switch's peak year, and for XB1 and PS4 to hit that end of gen sales decline.

This was the percentage drop for the 360 and PS3 in 2012 from 2011, the generation equivalent to 2019 from 2018.

Xbox 360: -27%
PS3: -24%

I think the PS4 gets a super slim in Q3 and for the digital only XB1 to be its super slim. Both of those will hold sales up a bit, but 2020 is going to fall even further.

 

[Deleted member 35598]

[NSW] 7500k
[PS4] 3900k
[XB1] 3500k

I expect a strong increase for the Switch, but a sharp decline for the PS4. We'll see.

 

[Aleh]

[NSW] 7300k
[PS4] 4200k
[XB1] 3700k

 

[Thardin]

[NSW] 6400K
[PS4] 4300K
[XB1] 3800K

 

[Sal_S]

[NSW] 6450k
[PS4] 4780k
[XB1] 3860k

 

[Alblowi]

[NSW] 6768K
[PS4] 4257K
[XB1] 3702K

 

[Darth Smurf X]

[NSW] 6300K
[PS4] 4300K
[XB1] 3100K

I think the Switch will continue selling well as it's not nearly as old and tired as the other two veterans and there is plenty of life left in that console. The other two, however, are nearing the ends of their lives. Even with price-cuts, I can only see downward spikes in both XB1 and PS4 especially since I think the PS5 will be announced this fall. The more drastic dip will be on the XB1 as their catalog for 2019 is... it's real sad definitely not for me (Crackdown 3, Ori 2, Gears, Battletoads?) and will not give people who do not already own an Xbox any incentive to buy one now. There are many question marks for the PS4 (Death Stranding, Ghost of Tsushima, VR surprises?), but the games that are 2019-bound (Days Gone, Dreams, Concrete Genie) could help mitigate some of the losses.

 

[Elandyll]

[NSW] 6000K
[PS4] 4500K
[XB1] 3500K

I see both the XB1 and PS4 taking a bit of a tumble due to the announcement of next gen at some point, countered to some level (particularly for the PS4) by strategic price drops.
The NS should keep on trucking thanks to Pokemon next gen and a few other key titles, but I don't see a massive increase happening in its 3rd year.

 

[Nilaul]

[NSW] 10 000+ K
[PS4] 4500 K
[XB1] 3702 K

Fuck it, new pokemon and surprise announcements by Nintendo + potential new hardware

 

[Piston]

[NSW] 6768K
[PS4] 4264K
[XB1] 3689K

I did a really complicated mathematical formula to come out to exactly these numbers. Count on it.

[NSW] 6768K
[PS4] 4257K
[XB1] 3702K

Click to shrink...

Fuck, I think you figured out my formula almost exactly. DAMN YOU.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

[NSW] 6700K
[PS4] 4300K
[XB1] 3600K

I predict 2019 to be the Switch's peak year, and for XB1 and PS4 to hit that end of gen sales decline.

Click to shrink...

Why don't you have my job.

I've got (intentionally not coded correctly):

Sw 6.7m
PS 4.7m
Xo 3.8m

I also have 2019 as peak Switch. I have overall HW units falling 4%. Guess I'm a bit more optimistic on PS4/Xone sustaining.

 

[KillerMan91]

Going by last years results I think I should wait for most prediction to be done and then take ERA average and put Switch lower and XBO higher (PS4 about the same)and I should do well lol.

 

[Piston]

Why don't you have my job.

I've got (intentionally not coded correctly):

Sw 6.7m
PS 4.7m
Xo 3.8m

I also have 2019 as peak Switch. I have overall HW units falling 4%. Guess I'm a bit more optimistic on PS4/Xone sustaining.

Click to shrink...

I basically figure ~20% increase for Switch as long as nothing crazy happens and a 15-20% decrease for PS4/Xbox as long as nothing crazy happens.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

a 15-20% decrease for PS4/Xbox as long as nothing crazy happens.

Click to shrink...

Eh, I'm thinking both PS4/Xone go more aggressive with price promotion Dec 2019 than they did Dec 2018. One thing to keep in mind, average pricing was flat or higher for HW when compared to 2017. 2018 units do not reflect 'normal' cyclical pricing.

 

[OG_Thrills]

[NSW] 5770K
[PS4] 4500K
[XB1] 3300K

 

[John Dunbar]

[NSW] 6,700,000
[PS4] 4,700,000
[XB1] 3,800,000

thanks mat

 

[slavesnyder]

[NSW] 7000K
[PS4] 4000K
[XB1] 3000K

 

[slavesnyder]

[NSW] 6,700,000
[PS4] 4,700,000
[XB1] 3,800,000

thanks mat

Click to shrink...

you only want his job.

 

[Zedark]

Why don't you have my job.

I've got (intentionally not coded correctly):

Sw 6.7m
PS 4.7m
Xo 3.8m

I also have 2019 as peak Switch. I have overall HW units falling 4%. Guess I'm a bit more optimistic on PS4/Xone sustaining.

Click to shrink...

Those are very soft drops for PS4 and XB1. Do you think that PS4/XB1 can hold relatively well in H1 2019 without the phenomenon that fortnite was last year, or will it make up ground in the other half?

 

[Deleted member 2785]

Those are very soft drops for PS4 and XB1. Do you think that PS4/XB1 can hold relatively well in H1 2019 without the phenomenon that fortnite was last year, or will it make up ground in the other half?

Click to shrink...

Like I posted above, I think average pricing starts to come down, goosing units a bit. Pricing has been abnormally strong when looking at historical benchmarks.

 

[Piston]

Eh, I'm thinking both PS4/Xone go more aggressive with price promotion Dec 2019 than they did Dec 2018. One thing to keep in mind, average pricing was flat or higher for HW when compared to 2017. 2018 units do not reflect 'normal' cyclical pricing.

Click to shrink...

Hmm, so would it be a 15-20% drop in revenue but a smaller drop in units then?

 

[chobel]

[NSW] 6500K
[PS4] 4000K
[XB1] 3600K