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NPD analyst: Over 40% of Switch users in the US own PS4/Xbox One; Next gen HW launches won't impact its sales
- Thread starter stormfire
- Start date
I absolutely think he's right. There will be some impact but the Switch isn't a direct competitor - as Mat says it's more of a supplement. Perhaps it'll impact third party ports to an extent but they aren't exactly thriving right now as it is.
It's the same position every Nintendo handheld has been in tbh
It's the same position every Nintendo handheld has been in tbh
Another amazing year for the switch
can't wait
also, I really don't think the switch has hit its peak yet.... so excited to see what they are going to do with it in the next few years
can't wait
also, I really don't think the switch has hit its peak yet.... so excited to see what they are going to do with it in the next few years
Obviously there's a sizeable element of being supplemental to PS4 and Xbox for the Switch, but I'm not sure how you can be absolute about that when the majority of people who responded *don't* own it as a supplemental device
Hmm I don't know if I agree. If people are spending $500-600 on consoles plus accessories and games for PS5/Series X, that won't effect switch?
I think the type of person that buys a console at launch with accessories and multiple games probably already bought a Switch given it'll have been 7 years since the PS4 launched and 3 years since the Switch launched.
Is there anyone here who isn't buying a Switch in 2020 because they are buying a next-gen console instead?
He is counting 2017 as it's own year, making 2020 it's 4th year, where Nintendo has generally seen sales decline
It'll be interesting to see the disagreement to Mat here change from what it is now to 'of course the Switch is selling as well/better it's half the price/a handheld. No one eeeveer thought otherwise.'
And by interesting I mean entirely predictable and not at all interesting.
And by interesting I mean entirely predictable and not at all interesting.
He's right. I'm one of those who own both PS4 and Switch. In fact, since GC, I have never owned only Nintendo system in one generation. I always bought Playstation first then Nintendo down the line.
That's just based in past numbers ....but we never had a system like the Switch before and the market has changed quite a bit.
In it's 4th year you usually can see how Nintendo has to limit it own efforts because they are preparing content for a new plattform already....always switch between handheld and console launches. That's gone and they are gonna have a strong lineup 2020 as well.
Hell the OG Switch didn't even have a real price drop yet....and many of us are still expecting a Pro version down the line. Still lots of cards left to play this generation.
1. March 17/18
2. March 18/19
3. March 19/20
4. March 20/21
It's not Switch's fourth year yet but is in 2 months.
2. March 18/19
3. March 19/20
4. March 20/21
It's not Switch's fourth year yet but is in 2 months.
Between exclusive access to Nintendo's highest-tier current software and the unique portable/docked hybrid capabilities, yeah, Switch absolutely fills a niche that nothing else competes with in the gaming space. I believe this analysis 100%.
Not really disagreeing....simple hot take on the US market based on past data and without knowing anything about Nintendo's 2020 plan outside out Animal Crossing in March.
When the OG Switch including a game is 250 and the LIte closer to 150 we can start talking about peak numbers.
I would argue that those buying a PS5 or Scarlett in 2020 are people who likely already own a Switch.
And to some in this thread:
The wording is "I don't see next gen HW launches having a meaningful direct cannibalistic impact on Switch sales in '20."
meaningful + direct
meaningful = while the Switch may very well be down YoY, it's not gonna be a large decline
ditect = Switch sales numbers will be much more impacted by other factors, like sales, games released in 2020 etc and not by the availability of more powerful consoles made by Microsoft or Sony.
I don't think your consumer habits are common. Not many would fall under the scope of being an early adopter who plans on spending premium on next gen hardware at launch, but either cannot afford or doesn't already have a Switch. Most people lining up to drop like $1000+ on gaming this year are obviously not that price sensitive. Those who are that price sensitive will probably opt for the $200 system and wait a few years to jump into next gen.
Also note that Mat isn't saying that 40% of Switch owners also bought a PS4/XB1 in the same year. He's saying that 40% of Switch owners also bought a PS4/XB1 some time between 2013 and now.
"except NDS"
When historical analysis is all you have to go on it seems a fair prediction however the one factor we don't know about is Nintendo's plans for price cuts if any... That would change the outlook imo
It is arguably supplemental for the 40% but to declare it as definitively supplemental when 60% by your own metric don't own either other console is a bad way of characterizing the device.
PC isn't included here and there are a lot of people who own only a Switch as home console but mainly play on PC
Discussing this analyst's work is always more enjoyable.
Seems to be data based compared to some other loud one.
It doesn't seem unreasonable at all too.
Nintendo is usually in a bubble of its own and with the hybrid they managed to get the retention of the handheld so they are far less impacted by other console manufacturer's moves
If all Nintendo hardware except NDS decreased in its 4th year, it also doesn't seem unreliable to expect the same here....especially since major hitters like SSB and Pokemon are already out of the picture as far as new software.
From my POV, I don't specifically see the software of 2020 matching 2019, I also do not count on Zelda being 2020 so I may wildly off base.
Then again 2019 didn't start on fire but it was a great year for Nintendo so really don't be surprised if it's doing tepidly or fantastically.
3rd parties also show no sign of jumping ship so on that side, Switch should do well too.
Seems to be data based compared to some other loud one.
It doesn't seem unreasonable at all too.
Nintendo is usually in a bubble of its own and with the hybrid they managed to get the retention of the handheld so they are far less impacted by other console manufacturer's moves
If all Nintendo hardware except NDS decreased in its 4th year, it also doesn't seem unreliable to expect the same here....especially since major hitters like SSB and Pokemon are already out of the picture as far as new software.
From my POV, I don't specifically see the software of 2020 matching 2019, I also do not count on Zelda being 2020 so I may wildly off base.
Then again 2019 didn't start on fire but it was a great year for Nintendo so really don't be surprised if it's doing tepidly or fantastically.
3rd parties also show no sign of jumping ship so on that side, Switch should do well too.
These consoles will sell at best 5 Million units a piece, and that won't even happen until the holidays, so yeah Switch has 10 and a half months on the market without them, and will go into the holidays with the other consoles having limited supply because of their launch. There is no impact to be had this year, and even next year consoles in their first year and a half, take time to build up the manufacturing and production lines to be able to even possibly reach 20 Million units, so I don't think Nintendo can be effected inside the next 2 years by next gen consoles, not to mention that cross gen isn't going away until 2023 probably.
Switch will have been on the market for nearly 4 years by the point these next gen consoles launch as well, so a successor to Switch will have more to do with the indication behind this report, than the current Switch, which will start to slow down in sales via it's own life cycle, far before these consoles could impact it.
Switch will have been on the market for nearly 4 years by the point these next gen consoles launch as well, so a successor to Switch will have more to do with the indication behind this report, than the current Switch, which will start to slow down in sales via it's own life cycle, far before these consoles could impact it.
I got my Switch after initially doubting it, and afdter my PS4.
That man may be right!
That's like the most obvious thing to say, but Matt does have the data to support that obvious thing.
That man may be right!
That's like the most obvious thing to say, but Matt does have the data to support that obvious thing.
What's the percent of people who own both Xbox and PlayStation? Hard to understand the significance of 40% without knowing the comparison.
To be fair NDS was a very special case, I don't know how close Switch is trying to replicate it to be able to claim that Switch will follow NDS pattern and not Wii for example.
I don't see the next gen having any impact on the Switch, unless Sony and MSFT veer far of their current course their systems offer no overlap with the Switch.
People enjoying Switch for what it provides should have no interest in Sony and MSFT at the expense of the Switch because what you can get on the Switch is not what Sony and MSFT are focusing on, so it will take time to have similar experience on the new devices.
Otherwise might as well claim that the release of Disney+ had an impact on console usage.
Without anything concrete to go by, that's just anecdotal. I doubt but that they'd make up even 10% of Switch ownership but again, can't say for sure without any data.
I agree.. Certainly doesn't look like Switch is or will match DS sales right now. My point was more making a prediction based on half a dozen data points (consoles since 1995) one of which contradicts the proposal is not something to bet your house on. Still, that's Matt's line of business and he knows infinitely more about it than I do.. I was just talking statistically.
Folks will be dropping $500 (tax, launch games) on next gen consoles by Holiday 2020. Might impact funds available for Switch purchases.
Also need to see if there are big hitters for Switch this year.
I understand, it seems a bit like people going "Nintendo's next console will do worse than the last because look at the decline of Nintendo consoles....but ignore Wii".
Like if Nintendo is back with a similar strategy than Wii, it's not gonna pull a WiiU regardless of how much you wish it.
the metric is specific enough that I don't think it's unreasonable to base something off it when looking at what we know will be released.
Of course if Nintendo decides to go scorched earth and release BOTW2, Metroid Prime 4 (that is a similar leap as BotW was to Skyward Sword), AC, a new pokémon, a new Mario Kart and a new openworld IP that we never heard off....
Welp predictions :/.
Yeah that is more or less my point. Also with the Switch dropping this year in sales, I don't believe it will. I think a Pro model is probably happening this year, along with price cuts to the lite (needed) and current model (expected).
I'd suggest that a Pro model falling somewhere between XB1 and PS4 will launch this FY (before April 2021) at $349, and offer some (mostly indie) 4K gaming.
The current model will drop to $249 and the Switch Lite will drop to $149 (from my understanding Nintendo was expecting higher sales from the lite model and there is actually quite a bit of profit in the lite model currently). These price drops will happen whenever the Pro model is introduced or around next Holiday, whatever comes first. I'd personally expect the Pro model to launch around a major AAA Nintendo title (BOTW2 is a good candidate), but according to Nikkei's article last year, the more powerful model was delayed, which might mean that it won't come until early 2021 for instance, though honestly there is plenty of games that would benefit from a more powerful Switch version, and from the hacked Switch units already out in the wild, we can see these games do benefit from just overclocking the unit, no game patches needed.
I actually believe this year is Nintendo Switch's peak year, mainly because of the software, Pokemon is finally on the market, Smash is going to have more DLC fighters, BotW 2 is likely happening this year (just a few months shorter turn around from botw, which took 50 months of full production, where as botw2 could launch ~44 Months after BotW and come out this calendar year). Also Animal Crossing should boost sales world wide, especially in Japan, which is likely going to be a big year for the system there in particular.
Not if the people buying next gen systems never had any intentions of buying a Switch in the 1st place.
A PC gamer with a Switch won't exactly jump at the bit to drop dough on next gen when he has a pc for that and never cared what exclusive software Sony and MSFT have.
I can see that happening as well.
I wouldn't shoot for a pro model (because personally I don't care about buying a new Switch, we already have 2 after all and bought the 2nd for pokémon....but it is used mostly for BotW so....yeah).
There is enough unknown that it can work either way.
It's not outlandish though.
HoWDoBiRtHdaY'S work
It's gonna be switch's 3rd year in 2 months bruh
Speaking the truth as often. I also expect 2020 to be the peak for these reasons.
They're correct though. In 2 months the Switch will be three years old. On three years and one day, it begins its fourth year.