November 2019 NPD - COD #1, Star Wars #2, Pokémon #3, #4 and #5, Death Stranding #7 ; Switch #1 and up YoY

[Andri]

It's revenue based so it probably didn't sell more overall units than shield

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It 100% didnt.
Price of Dual pack is 2x of single copy.

sword is above dual pack so its at least 2x unit sales of dual pack.
Dual pack is higher than shield, so unit sales are at least 50% of Shield.
Combining the two gives a range of up to 24 % of unit sales for Dual Pack.
At the high end dual pack is 24%, Sword is 48% and shield 28% unit sales.
It cant be more than 24%, since at 25% it would account for 50% of total revenue, and thus overtake Sword.

 

[Slipknot666]

Smash Bros Ultimate is the second best selling game of 2019 despite releasing in 2018. Impressive legs

 

[Deleted member 10737]

Don't both games have the same Metascore?

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kojima games used to get 90+ scores consistently. DS got "just" an 82.
even tho it's not much higher, luigi's 85 still pleasantly surprised people.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Smash Bros Ultimate is the second best selling game of 2019 despite releasing in 2018. Impressive legs

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That chart includes December 2018 (its launch month).

It is #8 for 2018 alone so yeah legs have been great.

 

[Deleted member 58846]

LM3 is an 86. Death Stranding is a 82

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Gotcha, thanks.

Yes so? I didn't say it was the only factor. I'm saying people were predicting DS would review extremely highly and I'm saying that would have driven sales massively. That's not the same as saying games sell equivalent to the reviews they get.

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I think the expectation, right or wrong, for Death Stranding was for it to be a medium-defining title like Kojima's titles have been in the past. That it didn't score that way at all is pretty telling about its polarization among the folks that you would expect to be into it the most.

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That all makes sense, thanks for the explanations.

 

[SilverX]

I guess so, but we know how lots of this forum gets about Kojima. This reaction could've been seen from a mile away

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The overreaction is so embarrassing that even MatP of the NPD had to clarify that Death Stranding did well last month LOL

 

[Ryng™]

Death Stranding placing is alright, people seem to forget this is November.

 

[Deleted member 58846]

kojima games used to get 90+ scores consistently. DS got "just" an 82.
even tho it's not much higher, luigi's 85 still pleas a surprised people.

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Yep, I understand what they meant now. That makes sense.

 

[RestEerie]

you think people expected it to chart at number 7 in its debut month? and it came out very early in the month too, had a lot of time to sell. this is a disappointing result for a major title from SIE.

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Context is key. Take a look at the top 6 games instead of just the number.

 

[Lelouch0612]

The overreaction is so embarrassing that even MatP of the NPD had to clarify that Death Stranding did well last month LOL

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Didn't you expect significantly more than 4m units sold for Death Stranding in its first year ?

I think Death Stranding did fine personally but I recall some high expectations but maybe I am misremembering.

 

[Deleted member 1722]

I feel like 7th is good for DS. Especially consider the top spots are 3x Pokémon, Cal of Duty, Star Wars and Madden.

 

[Gles]

Sad that we don't get numbers from NPD, would love to know the numbers for Pokemon shield lol.

 

[Deleted member 10737]

Context is key. Take a look at the top 6 games instead of just the number.

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as has been pointed out, ignoring its position in the chart it still had a weaker launch than sony's past several big games. even compared to new IPs like horizon and (probably) days gone.
you can check people's expectations pre launch. a lot of people were expecting a new horizon, a huge new IP that can do 10 million lifetime.

 

[King Dodongo]

Congrats Nintendo.

 

[Karak]

How can Division 2 be in the top selling but not meet expectations from Ubi. Man they must have really over estimated.

 

[daegan]

Death Stranding probably can look at Madden as, oh, maybe it should've topped that but for everything else on that list come ON. I can't believe anyone here thinks that's a bad performance in a month as obscenely competitive as November. The real question since this is a dollar amount list is how bolstered the SE and Baby Edition made that number.

 

[ThisThingIsUseful]

as has been pointed out, ignoring its position in the chart it still had a weaker launch than sony's past several big games. even new IPs like horizon and (probably) days gone.
you can check people's expectations pre launch. a lot of people were expecting a new horizon, a huge new IP that can do 10 million lifetime.

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It's already been pointed out that a number 1 game in November is significantly different than one in February (like Horizon). Revenue is overall higher in November because there are significantly more sales and it's more competitive. What we know from NPD is that it did fine.

 

[Lelouch0612]

How can Division 2 be in the top selling but not meet expectations from Ubi. Man they must have really over estimated.

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They expected sales in line with Division 1 which was a juggernaut.

 

[BigBlue]

DS at 7......yikesboyardee

 

[Karak]

They expected sales in line with Division 1 which was a juggernaut.

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ya true.

 

[Deleted member 2379]

I said 3-4M lifetime in the sales thread on DS. Unless there are backend legs I think it's still likely accurate

3-4 LTD

new franchise and the structure will put people off. It's falling right before major blockbusters like COd and Star Wars. I expect discounts by Black Friday.

Some of these predictions are absurd and put way too much stock in Kojimas name outside of MGS. This is a polarizing game that isn't targeted at a broader crowd. It's sales would always be capped unless it didn't go as weird or punishing as it did. Why get this game when you can get Star Wars or CoD if you are the broader audience?

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[Lelouch0612]

I said 3-4M lifetime in the sales thread on DS. Unless there are backend legs I think it's still likely accurate

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That seems like a good range yeah.

 

[RocknRola]

Still quite happy to see KH3 in the top 10 of the year! :D

 

[BigBlue]

are there any HW estimates?

 

[KingM]

as has been pointed out, ignoring its position in the chart it still had a weaker launch than sony's past several big games. even compared to new IPs like horizon and (probably) days gone.
you can check people's expectations pre launch. a lot of people were expecting a new horizon, a huge new IP that can do 10 million lifetime.

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Kojima's best selling previous game was what MGSV or 2 at 6 million copies spread across multiple consoles. DS seems like it would be a success based on his previous release record assuming it sold well but not as good as the juggernauts of COD, Madden and Pokemon.

 

[SilverX]

Didn't you expect significantly more than 4m units sold for Death Stranding in its first year ?

I think Death Stranding did fine personally but I recall some high expectations but maybe I am misremembering.

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First year? It has barely had its first month of sales, relax lol.

I don't think I ever said it would sell 4 million year one, but I think it'll definitely sell at least 5 million in its lifetime. It definitely isn't a "bomba" or anything remotely considered a flop even at this point of its sales.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Still quite happy to see KH3 in the top 10 of the year! :D

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One of the biggest success of the year in the US :)

 

[Ashodin]

Would like to know ring fit numbers

 

[Deleted member 43]

You meant to type this, right? Like, that's exactly the problem people have with the game, if they have a problem with the game: It's on two legs much of the time.

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You get me Wonder.

 

[GemmolSwitchPS4]

The overreaction is so embarrassing that even MatP of the NPD had to clarify that Death Stranding did well last month LOL

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you not using context properly yes it sold well for a Sony game but a Sony game do not sell as much as Nintendo games right now Nintendo got more games sold ten million than Sony while Sony use more bundles to boost their numbers compare to Nintendo

the point is let's use an example if the 7th spot means it sold 300k for the month is that really good or do we lower the curve because Sony games sell less than Nintendo games and by lowering the curve it do not looo as bad compared to other Sony games

 

[Skittzo]

Would like to know ring fit numbers

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Yeah, same. Anecdotally it seemed to have some sporadic stock issues around when it launched and the word of mouth is outstanding. I'd really love to see how it is doing here.

We'll probably have to wait for Nintendo's report in February.

 

[christocolus]

Outer worlds :)

 

[KingM]

you not using context properly yes it sold well for a Sony game but a Sony game do not sell as much as Nintendo games right now Nintendo got more games sold ten million than Sony while Sony use more bundles to boost their numbers compare to Nintendo

the point is let's use an example if the 7th spot means it sold 300k for the month is that really good or do we lower the curve because Sony games sell less than Nintendo games and by lowering the curve it do not looo as bad compared to other Sony games

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It's 7th behind some of the most popular game franchises of all time. Titles that'll likely hit 10-20m sold before their next entry comes out in 1-2 years.

 

[Avada Kedavra]

Well people wasted no time trashing Death Stranding even though that's as good of a performance it could have hoped to have. Maybe self-proclaimed Nintendo fans should stop talking about Death Stranding.

 

[TitlePending]

But marketing and costs for hiring actors would have easily offset the savings of using GG's engine, not to mention I believe Kojima had already developed a lot of DS using another engine beforehand.

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Considering that many of the actors are open fans of Kojima who spoke out about the fallout with Konami, they may have offered their time at a discounted price. And since most of the actual acting is them talking in a room then recording time probably went quickly.

Do you have any sources about DS being done on an earlier engine? And would that have been before Koji Pro started getting funding from Sony?

 

[____]

DS dollar sales in top 10 US Sony published launches in history.

 

[Cactuar]

How is Death Stranding's performance shocking when every game above it is literally a juggernaut with mass appeal? Some of the reactions here seem...performative.

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Yeah, there are some Oscar worthy "yikes" in here.

 

[Ellite25]

DS stranding looks like it did well to me. Cracked the top 10 as a new game that is unlike anything else. Also, most people had no idea what it was even about. I never even saw it as a game with super wide mass appeal, at least not in the same way as MGS. Plus everything above it are huge titles with established fanbases.

 

[ShinobiBk]

I forgot Death Stranding was launching on PC. It will be fine

I feel like expectations were much higher for Death Stranding some time ago (even Matt had predicted it to be a top 10 selling title of the year at the halfway point and it absolutely will not be) but those were reigned in closer to launch.

Also Smash is gonna be top 10 selling game 2 years in a row, let's go

 

[Ryng™]

Hardware

Hardware spending in November 2019 declined 26% compared to YA, to $891m. YTD HW spending has fallen 24% versus YA, to $2.9B. Only Nintendo Switch is showing year-to-date hardware sales growth.

Nintendo Switch was again the best-selling hardware platform of November and remains the best-selling platform of 2019.

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And this is dollar sales, which mean units YOY growth should be even more impressive considering this year there was Switch lite at 199$.

Very curious to see the numbers...

 

[mreddie]

So basically top 10 did big numbers then? DS a flop to you guys is odd but whateva.

Looks like NFS did better than Payback even if the charts say otherwise only because the 3 Pokemon games getting counted. And not shocking COD did monster numbers.

 

[Juryvicious]

Can we get some type of hardware numbers? This is lame.

 

[SilverX]

you not using context properly yes it sold well for a Sony game but a Sony game do not sell as much as Nintendo games right now Nintendo got more games sold ten million than Sony while Sony use more bundles to boost their numbers compare to Nintendo

the point is let's use an example if the 7th spot means it sold 300k for the month is that really good or do we lower the curve because Sony games sell less than Nintendo games and by lowering the curve it do not looo as bad compared to other Sony games

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What the? I had no idea this was a Sony vs. Nintendo game sales thread. Is this why some of you are dumping on Death Stranding's debut? All the games in the top 10 had great debuts when you consider the popularity of the series (Star Wars, Pokemon, etc.). Kojima isn't a series lol and this was a new IP,, so of course Death Stranding wasn't going to have a debut that would topple series that are also media powerhouses.

 

[Deleted member 8784]

Holy crap at Smash Bros Ultimate's sales overtaking Brawl. That's not something I'd have expected so quickly, especially considering the long tail of these games.

Also interesting that the Sword and Shield double pack sold more than Shield alone. Are shields really that lame compared to swords? (yes)

 

[big_z]

The used marker is flooded with copies of death stranding at half retail price already. I'm trying to sell my copy and there's no interest even at that price.
Not sure how well it did for but I hope well enough because I don't see this one having any legs.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Some rough estimates using Pokemon at 2.75m and a Sword/Shield split of 60/40 (akin to the other markets).

3. Pokémon Sword : ~1.25m
4. Double pack : 400k
5. Pokémon Shield : ~ 700k

So Death Stranding probably in the 500k-650k range ? (it had some more expensive versions)

Spoiler: Data I used

Pokémon in the US first 2 days (digital included) : 2m
Pokémon in the Americas at the end of November : 3m-3.5m (digital included)
Pokémon S/M opening month : 3.2m (estimate)

 

[Deleted member 10737]

just realized botw will most likely be charting in the top 20 3+ years after release, come next year.

 

[Ryng™]

Holy crap at Smash Bros Ultimate's sales overtaking Brawl.

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[Shadoken]

DS could have got 95 on MC and it would have still only gotten 6th at best. You ain't beating out massive franchises that have huge fanbases.

I don't think scores matter all that much. It will boost sales a little , thats about it. Even Days gone sold a lot with "just" a 70 something on MC.

Holy crap at Smash Bros Ultimate's sales overtaking Brawl. That's not something I'd have expected so quickly, especially considering the long tail of these games.

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I always thought Smash 4 beat Brawl? Or is it because they counted it as a 2 releases.

 

[KingM]

The used marker is flooded with copies of death stranding at half retail price already. I'm trying to sell my copy and there's no interest even at that price.
Not sure how well it did for but I hope well enough because I don't see this one having any legs.

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It's one of Sony's biggest launches and likely the second or third for a Kojima game.