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Mr_F_Snowman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,901
Not even close. Fates with multiple SKUs counted reached 3 million. JRPGs are not some explosive genre either. Your 5 million estimate is not remotely based in reality but wishful projection.

The Kirby GB game sold around 1.7 million in Japan alone, probably shipped closer to 2 million. Kirby on SW is not replicating that and like I said, exceptional legs would be needed.



Yes, I do pay attention to sales stats.

Ok sure

Kirby sold over 5 million worldwide whereas you said it was never even close to 3 million previously.

Fates sold near 3 million and since has expanded its mindshare thanks to the mobile game that has been a huge hit.

Switch entries that have or are going to set record franchise sales - Zelda / 3D Mario / Mario Tennis / Smash Bros......etc etc

Lots of franchises on Switch are seeing massive growth and record breaking sales but you think Fire Emblem won't? Why? Its on an upward sales trajectory and had a massive mobile hit - you think sales are what going to decline? Would love to hear your reasoning why 5 million is so ludicrous a suggestion
 

Jbone115

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,760
Not even close. Fates with multiple SKUs counted reached 3 million. JRPGs are not some explosive genre either. Your 5 million estimate is not remotely based in reality but wishful projection.
Lol @ "not remotely based in reality." While it is definitely an optimistic prediction, it's not too unreasonable a prediction if you account for the franchise mindshare growth due to Heroes (and Smash Ultimate) and consider that Switch software has been over performing.

I would guess ~3 million for FE personally, but I do think 5 million isn't completely unreasonable, especially if Nintendo does a good job advertising it.
 

Deepthought_

Banned
May 15, 2018
1,992
Will ps4 reach 100 million units sold by the end of the year?

If it's all ready outsold the ps3 that's really good maybe they will hit ps2 numbers
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Not even close. Fates with multiple SKUs counted reached 3 million. JRPGs are not some explosive genre either. Your 5 million estimate is not remotely based in reality but wishful projection.

Reality is that Fire Emblem showed a big grow those recent years, and literally every series on Switch had a big grow compared to previus entries.

5 million may be a bit optimist, but far from a wishful prediction, and is surely more realistic than a lot of predictions.
 

>__

Alt Account
Banned
Oct 28, 2018
474
Ok sure

Kirby sold over 5 million worldwide whereas you said it was never even close to 3 million previously.

Fates sold near 3 million and since has expanded its mindshare thanks to the mobile game that has been a huge hit.

Switch entries that have or are going to set record franchise sales - Zelda / 3D Mario / Mario Tennis / Smash Bros......etc etc

Lots of franchises on Switch are seeing massive growth and record breaking sales but you think Fire Emblem won't? Why? Its on an upward sales trajectory and had a massive mobile hit - you think sales are what going to decline? Would love to hear your reasoning why 5 million is so ludicrous a suggestion
Lol @ "not remotely based in reality." While it is definitely an optimistic prediction, it's not too unreasonable a prediction if you account for the franchise mindshare growth due to Heroes (and Smash Ultimate) and consider that Switch software has been over performing.

I would guess ~3 million for FE personally, but I do think 5 million isn't completely unreasonable, especially if Nintendo does a good job advertising it.
Reality is that Fire Emblem showed a big grow those recent years, and literally every series on Switch had a big grow compared to previus entries.

5 million may be a bit optimist, but far from a wishful prediction, and is surely more realistic than a lot of predictions.

You guys are doing very basic analysis. Saying SW software is doing better than ever so FE can do 5 million is the barely logical. Genres react differently. As I said, the JRPG genre is not explosive like that, so you can't just extrapolate how MK8D performed and paste it onto to FE.

Mobile games and console games are different markets. This is even more so relevant for Gacha games that attract an entirely different base. DBZ and Naruto gacha games on mobile have tens of millions of downloads, though the console variants success largely depend on their own reception and nature.

Finally, FE Fates sold 3 million with multiple SKU's. Its an important distinction if the next game is only single SKU. The previous single SKU game did 2.24 million. Do I expect FE SW to do better than A? Of course.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
In 1997 Nintendo 64 was very competitive against PS1, winning 6 months out of 12. PS1 ended up selling more because of a bigger holiday.
5.04 million VS 4.36 million

The PS1 lead started to be clear in 1998, when it outsold N64 every months, and by a huge margin some times (like >x2), but at least N64 managed to have some close months.
7.07 million VS 4.12 million

In 1999 and 2000 PS1 and N64 were closer tho, 2000 in particular. The reason PS1 sold a lot more than N64 was because of it's long legs, but before GC released, N64 was able to put up a fight.
This information is super interesting. Thanks heaps Ryng for putting this together!!!
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
You guys are doing very basic analysis. Saying SW software is doing better than ever so FE can do 5 million is the barely logical.

I know that i'm saying this for every games on Switch, and EVERY single time i heard the same thing: "just because most games saw a growth doesn't mean even this game will"

I predicted 6 months ago that Smash Ultimate would have sold over 25 million lifetime, a prediction that right now seem the most realistic one, yet you can read in the comments how most people said it was too much because Brawl and Smash 4 didn't reach 15 million.

What's fun is that most comments are saying the same thing you are saying about Fire Emblem.

"It's not Mario kart, is a fighting game, limited audience, for a game like that even 20 million would be insane". And now we are there.

And i had this deja vu way too many times, same thing happen to Mario Odyssey as well, i remember that.


I swear, every times i predict a big growth for a game on Switch, saying that "i mean the trend is that series on Switch have a growth so is reasonable to expect another growth even this time", people keep inventing "reasons" why this time for that particular game it would be different...

And guess what, in the end i'm always right and the growth is massive. Like, at this point it should not even be a "phenomenal prediction" an user like me does, this should be the norm, yet every single times people are like "OMG look at the sales compared to previus games, who would have thought!", and i'm like "...ok..."

So, back to Fire emblem..... Predicting a growth for the game should be the norm at this point. And is unrealistic to predict the opposite. And no, doesn't matter if it's an jrpg. Final Fantasy is a jrpg and it sold 10 million units.
 

HeroR

Banned
Dec 10, 2017
7,450
I know that i'm saying this for every games on Switch, and EVERY single time i heard the same thing: "just because most games saw a growth doesn't mean even this game will"

I predicted 6 months ago that Smash Ultimate would have sold over 25 million lifetime, a prediction that right now seem the most realistic one, yet you can read in the comments how most people said it was too much because Brawl and Smash 4 didn't reach 15 million.

What's fun is that most comments are saying the same thing you are saying about Fire Emblem.

"It's not Mario kart, is a fighting game, limited audience, for a game like that even 20 million would be insane". And now we are there.

And i had this deja vu way too many times, same thing happen to Mario Odyssey as well, i remember that.


I swear, every times i predict a big growth for a game on Switch, saying that "i mean the trend is that series on Switch have a growth so is reasonable to expect another growth even this time", people keep inventing "reasons" why this time for that particular game it would be different...

And guess what, in the end i'm always right and the growth is massive. Like, at this point it should not even be a "phenomenal prediction" an user like me does, this should be the norm, yet every single times people are like "OMG look at the sales compared to previus games, who would have thought!", and i'm like "...ok..."

So, back to Fire emblem..... Predicting a growth for the game should be the norm at this point. And is unrealistic to predict the opposite. And no, doesn't matter if it's an jrpg. Final Fantasy is a jrpg and it sold 10 million units.

FE should see growth for no other reason than the success brought in by Heroes in recent years, something not even Fates had. But comparing it to Fates will be tough since Fates had different games like Pokemon, so the only real FE we can compare Three Houses to is Awakening. That and this will be the first console FE since Radiant Dawn.
 

Le Dude

Member
May 16, 2018
4,709
USA
So, back to Fire emblem..... Predicting a growth for the game should be the norm at this point. And is unrealistic to predict the opposite. And no, doesn't matter if it's an jrpg. Final Fantasy is a jrpg and it sold 10 million units.

Hasn't nearly every Nintendo published Switch game pretty much been on track to be near the best, if not the best, selling game in its respective series?

Ultimate will be the best selling Smash Bros. Odyssey the best selling 3D Mario. Breath of the Wild the best selling Legend of Zelda title. Kirby probably won't hit number 1, but it will be the second here pretty soon (if not by the end of this year). Mario Tennis Aces will be the top selling Mario Tennis game. Mario Party is the fastest selling Mario Party game since MP6 nearly 15 years ago . . . by the end of this year it will easily be in third place for the series.

I dunno really why that is. I know for me personally I've bought a hell of a lot for the Switch because it's much more convenient for me to play than my PC, which makes completing games so much easier.
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,918
FE has grown so much since Awakening and even since Fates. As long as it reviews reasonably well, it will be the best selling game in the series. Heroes has pushed the series hard.
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
I expect a Path of Radiance + Radiant Dawn remake/VC-type port on Switch, too. Radiant Dawn characters are being planned in Heroes in January (first beast units!), so that'd be a good time to announce the FE remakes.

2019: The Year of Fire Emblem
That'd be SO awesome.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I expect a Path of Radiance + Radiant Dawn remake/VC-type port on Switch, too. Radiant Dawn characters are being planned in Heroes in January (first beast units!), so that'd be a good time to announce the FE remakes.

2019: The Year of Fire Emblem
That'd be SO awesome.
MAN, Path of Radiance is my favourite Fire Emblem ever, and I never got to play Radiant Dawn, so I'd be SO down for this. Switch is already fast becoming my favourite system ever, this would cement it beyond a shadow of a doubt for sure.
 

ThisIsBlitz21

Member
Oct 22, 2018
4,663
Have a question: If we look at the first 11 months of Xbox One from 2014-2018, is 2018 on track to be the peak year of Xbox One in the US?
 

Screen Looker

Member
Nov 17, 2018
1,963
I expect a Path of Radiance + Radiant Dawn remake/VC-type port on Switch, too. Radiant Dawn characters are being planned in Heroes in January (first beast units!), so that'd be a good time to announce the FE remakes.

2019: The Year of Fire Emblem
That'd be SO awesome.

I'm hoping for it. I've been wanting to get into the Fire Emblems but I refuse to go back and buy all the tech to play the . Lol
 

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
I do wonder if Yo-kai Watch will finally break-out on the Switch in the US, it's a huge kid franchise and has gained a bigger footprint in the last years in European markets like France & Spain. If Nintendo handles some of the marketing in the West I could easily see it outperforming prior entries by a considerable amount in the West. In terms of Japan the delay was certainly unwelcome as a fall release could have been huge for Japan. But if Level-5 decides to go with a summer simultaneous WW release(as prior Yo-kai's launched around summer with 3rd version coming before December), we could see it get a lot more attention during the slower summer period in the West, while in Japan there is the Obon holidays which generally lead to higher sales for kid focused titles. Another factor is potentially the revision launching next year and OG Switch maybe getting a price cut which would help tremendously in Japan.
 

HeroR

Banned
Dec 10, 2017
7,450
I expect a Path of Radiance + Radiant Dawn remake/VC-type port on Switch, too. Radiant Dawn characters are being planned in Heroes in January (first beast units!), so that'd be a good time to announce the FE remakes.

2019: The Year of Fire Emblem
That'd be SO awesome.

I doubt we will see those games simple because they bombed, Radiant Dawn especially hard.

That and Fire Emblem really doesn't get ports. They tend to get complete remasters like Shadow Dragons, Mystery of the Fire Emblem, and Gaiden.
 
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NSESN

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,353
Fates sold 3 million late in 3DS life and with mediocre word of mouth, if 3 Houses has reception at least as good as awakening it shouldnt have problems outselling fates
I expect a Path of Radiance + Radiant Dawn remake/VC-type port on Switch, too. Radiant Dawn characters are being planned in Heroes in January (first beast units!), so that'd be a good time to announce the FE remakes.

2019: The Year of Fire Emblem
That'd be SO awesome.
I love tellius but remaking Genealogy seems a better idea, it has really successful banners in heroes depite being a japan only game.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,684
Do you know the percentage?

Sorry for the late reply.



For the same time period in 2017 the Switch has sold 130k units as per Bruno MB in the PAL thread (LINK). Which means it's up 54% YoY. Considering the Mario Kart 8 bundle is available everywhere in Europe you should see similar results in other countries.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
One of the things people are missing is that neither Awakening nor Fates had a simultaneous worldwide release.

Fates could have done so much better in Europe but the delay hurt it a lot.
 

Faiyaz

Member
Nov 30, 2017
5,305
Bangladesh
Fates sold 3 million late in 3DS life and with mediocre word of mouth, if 3 Houses has reception at least as good as awakening it shouldnt have problems outselling fates

I love tellius but remaking Genealogy seems a better idea, it has really successful banners in heroes depite being a japan only game.


Other than a (very) vocal minority, I don't think this true. It was pretty well-received critically.
 

Thequietone

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,052
I'll say this about FE Three Houses. I have never bought a FE before but I have it preordered already. I know I'm only one person but I doubt I'm the only one. I think it'll see growth.
 

Mr_F_Snowman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,901
You guys are doing very basic analysis. Saying SW software is doing better than ever so FE can do 5 million is the barely logical. Genres react differently. As I said, the JRPG genre is not explosive like that, so you can't just extrapolate how MK8D performed and paste it onto to FE.

Mobile games and console games are different markets. This is even more so relevant for Gacha games that attract an entirely different base. DBZ and Naruto gacha games on mobile have tens of millions of downloads, though the console variants success largely depend on their own reception and nature.

Finally, FE Fates sold 3 million with multiple SKU's. Its an important distinction if the next game is only single SKU. The previous single SKU game did 2.24 million. Do I expect FE SW to do better than A? Of course.

You say Fire Emblem lacks potential for "explosive" growth and seemingly forget that before Awakening the entire series was basically dead. Its already experienced the kind of growth you say is impossible in the last 6 years.

Having a mobile game that has been downloaded by tens/hundreds of millions of people is of course going to help it. Nintendos entire strategy has been to expand the audience via mobile titles and direct those people to seek out their respective series on console with the mobile titles acting as a gateway.

You seem to know better than Nintendo itself however
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
What is it with this thread and people trying to misinform?

Yeah, i'm definitively trying to misinform people, because of out 10 things i say 9 are correct and 1 is wrong.

Do you have an idea of how hard it is to find NPD data before 2000? It's hard, i thought those numbers i found were at least close to correct, because i got them from an user that is also very informed and i trusted him.

Sorry if i tried to help.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Unless something crazy happens in the next 2 weeks December is going to be all about the Switch. And by a huge margin lead
 

Jon Carter

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,746
Unless something crazy happens in the next 2 weeks December is going to be all about the Switch. And by a huge margin lead

Is any console over- or underperforming according to your expectations, or everything is just going according to keikaku?

By the way, how has the 2/3DS been doing? Are there any actual 3DSs still selling or is everything about the 2DS? The only 3DS I see in stores around me is an ugly galaxy special edition N3DS XL that stores seem unable to get rid of. The rest is N2DS with some OG 2DS here and there.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
You guys are doing very basic analysis. Saying SW software is doing better than ever so FE can do 5 million is the barely logical. Genres react differently. As I said, the JRPG genre is not explosive like that, so you can't just extrapolate how MK8D performed and paste it onto to FE.

Mobile games and console games are different markets. This is even more so relevant for Gacha games that attract an entirely different base. DBZ and Naruto gacha games on mobile have tens of millions of downloads, though the console variants success largely depend on their own reception and nature.

Finally, FE Fates sold 3 million with multiple SKU's. Its an important distinction if the next game is only single SKU. The previous single SKU game did 2.24 million. Do I expect FE SW to do better than A? Of course.
XBC2 actually saw major growth on Switch compared to predecessors, from below 1M to 1.4M+.

Also, when looking at the Fates skus, you can't ignore the fact that you could buy the second campaign at a vastly reduced price if you owned one . I have major doubts that the two skus were a major boost to sales.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Hey Benji, if you can answer, which console you think is going to take the second place this month between PS4 and XB1?

And you think they are gonna be close?

It will be crazy if Switch actually ended December as the best selling console in the US this year after the PS4 won almost the entire time.

Not too much to be honest, things like that already happen some times. For example, in 2003 XBOX outsold GC for literally all months of the first 3 quarter (only March was slighly better for the GC, and by less than 1k units :p) , then in October GC had a pricedrop and ended up selling more than XBOX the intere year thanks a better holiday
 
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Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
It will be crazy if Switch actually ended December as the best selling console in the US this year after the PS4 won almost the entire time.
While things can still happen that could mitigate things (e.g. a surprise last minute $199 sale by PS4), there is a good chance this will indeed happen.

The possibility was actually always in the cards, all that was needed for it to happen was that the difference between Switch and PS4 in the months where PS4 sold the most would not be overly significant.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,742
Italy
If quality is high, the new FE can go higher than its predecessors: approaching 4m is pretty likely at this point given how lively Switch userbase is, Heroes popularity and the fact that Nintendo will treat the game as a big one. This is crazy considering that FE is an exclusive tactical RPG so a pretty niche game to begin with.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
I see why Sony isnt cutting the price tbh. They are still selling a lot of inventory in comparison to shipment / inventory levels.

Doesnt look like it's going to be a crazy successful month for them by December standards in terms of units, but they are still selling essentially what they are shipping at full price
 

Screen Looker

Member
Nov 17, 2018
1,963
I see why Sony isnt cutting the price tbh. They are still selling a lot of inventory in comparison to shipment / inventory levels.

Doesnt look like it's going to be a crazy successful month for them by December standards in terms of units, but they are still selling essentially what they are shipping at full price

Do you think the PSVR price drop for the month will invigorate things for that accessory and the revenue in accessories market?
 

Jon Carter

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,746
I feel like to really have explosive growth, Fire Emblem will have to look a lot better visually than what we've seen. It looked pretty low budget for a multi-million selling franchise. I think it will need to impress a bit more to take the franchise to the next level.
 

Dark Cloud

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
61,087
I feel like to really have explosive growth, Fire Emblem will have to look a lot better visually than what we've seen. It looked pretty low budget for a multi-million selling franchise. I think it will need to impress a bit more to take the franchise to the next level.
Why you concerned about Fire Emblem? This is Nintendo. Relax with that stuff.
 

Andromeda

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,858
I see why Sony isnt cutting the price tbh. They are still selling a lot of inventory in comparison to shipment / inventory levels.

Doesnt look like it's going to be a crazy successful month for them by December standards in terms of units, but they are still selling essentially what they are shipping at full price
Yep I noticed the PS4 COD bundle is sold out online at Gamestop which I found surprising. Isn't supposed to be their main bundle for december ?