Nintendo took notes from 2/3 of Odyssey players picking Alexios for some reason, will now offer alternative hunter Seamus Aaron, sales spike 200%
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November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
What Metroid Prime 4 will do is bring a small but different subset of players into the platform than are currently there. So it will likely be a decent system seller even if it doesn't put up huge numbers in software sales itself.
I think 2019 will definitely be a good deal bigger than 2018 but I kinda agree the lineup won't be the entire reason for that. A revision and potential price cut are going to do a lot of work to drive growth. Animal Crossing too, it's a huge series with women and the Switch currently seems to be selling more to men than even previous Nintendo consoles. So 2019 is going to see new audiences buy the system for (potentially) a cheaper price, and therefore sales are going to be substantially higher.
OP
OP
ResetERA Aggregate Predictions - Nov-2018
1. PS4 - 1578K (stddev: 119K)
2. NSW - 1404K (stddev: 142K)
3. XB1 - 1094K (stddev: 133K)
------------------------
NPD Prediction Results - November 2018
Units
1. uptownsoul - 160,000
2. HighJump - 190,000
3. ArmGunar - 200,000
3. chobel - 200,000
5. Evangelista - 220,000
5. Mbolibombo - 220,000
5. Primethius - 220,000
8. Slarvax - 240,000
9. MasterChumly - 270,000
9. SinCItyAssassin - 270,000
11. Nocturnal - 278,000
12. PillFencer - 280,000
13. El Manco - 292,000
14. Alex840 - 300,000
14. Vlodril - 300,000
14. score01 - 300,000
17. gargles - 310,000
18. *Guaranß - 320,000
18. KennyX - 320,000
18. Kill3r7 - 320,000
18. Kyser73 - 320,000
18. Paronth - 320,000
18. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 320,000
24. Simba1 - 335,000
25. Andromeda - 339,000
26. Mercenary09 - 340,000
27. Expy - 345,000
27. Jbone115 - 345,000
29. Aleh - 350,000
29. DanR93 - 350,000
29. Heruderu - 350,000
29. Sander VF - 350,000
29. Toni - 350,000
34. RexNovis - 360,000
34. Sterok - 360,000
36. Darth Smurf X - 380,000
36. Pablo Mesa - 380,000
38. Myriotes - 388,000
39. Astrogamer - 400,000
40. cakely - 405,000
41. Menx64 - 410,000
42. jayu26 - 415,000
43. Charamiwa - 420,000
43. Lwill - 420,000
43. Martl - 420,000
43. allan-bh - 420,000
47. Quinton - 430,000
47. ScopehJ - 430,000
47. WillySJ3 - 430,000
47. useyourloaf - 430,000
51. CosmicBolt - 440,000
51. Grads - 440,000
53. Limabean01 - 447,000
54. Dougieflesh - 448,000
55. Rouk' - 450,000
55. Wandu - 450,000
57. KillerMan91 - 460,000
57. pitseleh - 460,000
57. z0m3le - 460,000
60. freeradical - 461,000
61. Elandyll - 470,000
61. LordKano - 470,000
61. Sir Tsunami - 470,000
61. Wander_ - 470,000
61. dean_rcg - 470,000
66. Hyaku Shiki - 475,000
66. Zedark - 475,000
68. iag - 480,000
69. MrTired - 485,000
70. Dwebble - 490,000
71. Bundy - 500,000
71. DeuceGamer - 500,000
71. Kaveri - 500,000
71. Peek-a-boo! - 500,000
71. Sangetsu-II - 500,000
71. TurnoftheCentury - 500,000
77. skittzo0413 - 509,000
78. Sheepshakey - 510,000
79. Gryflet - 520,000
79. Unkindled - 520,000
81. Jawbreaker - 550,000
81. donny2112 - 550,000
83. ConfusedGamer - 555,000
83. chroeser - 555,000
85. Welfare - 560,000
86. ThatRandomCliff - 564,000
87. Mr Swine - 565,000
88. Omnislayer - 600,000
88. UmbriaPauly - 600,000
88. jroc74 - 600,000
91. big_z - 603,000
92. Hammer24 - 607,000
93. Gamer17 - 620,000
93. H-I-M - 620,000
93. Pooroomoo - 620,000
93. byDoS - 620,000
97. Fdkn - 622,000
98. mrfusticle - 634,000
99. FaceHugger - 670,000
99. Harris Katz - 670,000
99. Jade1962 - 670,000
99. kowalski - 670,000
103. Ron Paul - 695,000
104. klanar - 700,000
105. DMVfan123 - 704,000
106. Rockstar - 720,000
107. Rion - 725,000
108. Bitch Pudding - 730,000
109. Majiebeast - 764,000
110. Alandring - 800,000
110. Cthulhu_Steev - 800,000
110. Ryugarr - 800,000
110. kjtc1979 - 800,000
110. slavesnyder - 800,000
115. Noobie - 820,000
116. Keikaku - 1,000,000
116. NicknameMy - 1,000,000
118. Timppis - 1,330,000
119. Pachter - 1,415,000
Points
Congratulations, uptownsoul! :D
1. PS4 - 1578K (stddev: 119K)
2. NSW - 1404K (stddev: 142K)
3. XB1 - 1094K (stddev: 133K)
------------------------
Thanks! Only real diff is with PS4, but even that's minor considering the totals. Going with 1480K, 1360K, and 1340K for PS4, NSW, and XB1, respectively, then. (^_^)
NPD Prediction Results - November 2018
Units
1. uptownsoul - 160,000
2. HighJump - 190,000
3. ArmGunar - 200,000
3. chobel - 200,000
5. Evangelista - 220,000
5. Mbolibombo - 220,000
5. Primethius - 220,000
8. Slarvax - 240,000
9. MasterChumly - 270,000
9. SinCItyAssassin - 270,000
11. Nocturnal - 278,000
12. PillFencer - 280,000
13. El Manco - 292,000
14. Alex840 - 300,000
14. Vlodril - 300,000
14. score01 - 300,000
17. gargles - 310,000
18. *Guaranß - 320,000
18. KennyX - 320,000
18. Kill3r7 - 320,000
18. Kyser73 - 320,000
18. Paronth - 320,000
18. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 320,000
24. Simba1 - 335,000
25. Andromeda - 339,000
26. Mercenary09 - 340,000
27. Expy - 345,000
27. Jbone115 - 345,000
29. Aleh - 350,000
29. DanR93 - 350,000
29. Heruderu - 350,000
29. Sander VF - 350,000
29. Toni - 350,000
34. RexNovis - 360,000
34. Sterok - 360,000
36. Darth Smurf X - 380,000
36. Pablo Mesa - 380,000
38. Myriotes - 388,000
39. Astrogamer - 400,000
40. cakely - 405,000
41. Menx64 - 410,000
42. jayu26 - 415,000
43. Charamiwa - 420,000
43. Lwill - 420,000
43. Martl - 420,000
43. allan-bh - 420,000
47. Quinton - 430,000
47. ScopehJ - 430,000
47. WillySJ3 - 430,000
47. useyourloaf - 430,000
51. CosmicBolt - 440,000
51. Grads - 440,000
53. Limabean01 - 447,000
54. Dougieflesh - 448,000
55. Rouk' - 450,000
55. Wandu - 450,000
57. KillerMan91 - 460,000
57. pitseleh - 460,000
57. z0m3le - 460,000
60. freeradical - 461,000
61. Elandyll - 470,000
61. LordKano - 470,000
61. Sir Tsunami - 470,000
61. Wander_ - 470,000
61. dean_rcg - 470,000
66. Hyaku Shiki - 475,000
66. Zedark - 475,000
68. iag - 480,000
69. MrTired - 485,000
70. Dwebble - 490,000
71. Bundy - 500,000
71. DeuceGamer - 500,000
71. Kaveri - 500,000
71. Peek-a-boo! - 500,000
71. Sangetsu-II - 500,000
71. TurnoftheCentury - 500,000
77. skittzo0413 - 509,000
78. Sheepshakey - 510,000
79. Gryflet - 520,000
79. Unkindled - 520,000
81. Jawbreaker - 550,000
81. donny2112 - 550,000
83. ConfusedGamer - 555,000
83. chroeser - 555,000
85. Welfare - 560,000
86. ThatRandomCliff - 564,000
87. Mr Swine - 565,000
88. Omnislayer - 600,000
88. UmbriaPauly - 600,000
88. jroc74 - 600,000
91. big_z - 603,000
92. Hammer24 - 607,000
93. Gamer17 - 620,000
93. H-I-M - 620,000
93. Pooroomoo - 620,000
93. byDoS - 620,000
97. Fdkn - 622,000
98. mrfusticle - 634,000
99. FaceHugger - 670,000
99. Harris Katz - 670,000
99. Jade1962 - 670,000
99. kowalski - 670,000
103. Ron Paul - 695,000
104. klanar - 700,000
105. DMVfan123 - 704,000
106. Rockstar - 720,000
107. Rion - 725,000
108. Bitch Pudding - 730,000
109. Majiebeast - 764,000
110. Alandring - 800,000
110. Cthulhu_Steev - 800,000
110. Ryugarr - 800,000
110. kjtc1979 - 800,000
110. slavesnyder - 800,000
115. Noobie - 820,000
116. Keikaku - 1,000,000
116. NicknameMy - 1,000,000
118. Timppis - 1,330,000
119. Pachter - 1,415,000
Points
Code:
November 2018 Overall 2018 Top (9/11)
01. uptownsoul 123.15 Andromeda 937.80
02. HighJump 118.44 Expy 919.40
03. chobel 116.20 Welfare 918.38
04. ArmGunar 116.20 CosmicBolt 914.19
05. Primethius 111.70 Ryng Manuel Tolu 910.15
06. Mbolibombo 111.58 MrTired 909.52
07. Evangelista 111.58 Peek-a-boo! 905.97
08. Slarvax 107.16 Elandyll 902.34
09. SinCItyAssassin 105.53 chroeser 898.83
10. MasterChumly 105.33 allan-bh 895.29
11. Nocturnal 103.23 jroc74 891.28
12. PillFencer 103.15 kowalski 890.10
13. Vlodril 103.01 useyourloaf 887.98
14. Alex840 102.97 Kaveri 886.34
15. score01 102.83 pitseleh 886.33
16. El Manco 102.83 jayu26 885.01
17. gargles 102.67 Gryflet 883.91
18. Kill3r7 102.11 KillerMan91 883.72
19. Ryng Manuel Tolu 102.11 Fdkn 883.10
20. *Guaranß 102.11 Nocturnal 877.04
21. Andromeda 101.79 Bitch Pudding 874.52
22. Mercenary09 101.74 Corporate Clown 874.34
23. Simba1 101.70 Primethius 872.27
24. DanR93 101.63 Grads 870.98
25. Toni 101.61 Wandu 869.90
26. Sander VF 101.61 donny2112 865.25
27. Expy 101.61 score01 865.01
28. Jbone115 101.51 Hammer24 859.86
29. Heruderu 101.37 MasterChumly 859.17
30. RexNovis 101.21 freeradical 858.05
31. Sterok 101.13 Zedark 857.38
32. Pablo Mesa 100.76 Martl 854.64
33. Darth Smurf X 100.63 cakely 854.02
34. Myriotes 100.58 slavesnyder 853.98
35. Astrogamer 100.25 Kill3r7 853.97
36. cakely 99.96 Astrogamer 853.96
37. Martl 99.86 Sangetsu-II 853.61
38. jayu26 99.77 Darth Smurf X 852.06
39. Lwill 99.70 James 851.20
40. WillySJ3 99.67 chobel 850.13
41. allan-bh 99.65 Majiebeast 848.84
42. Charamiwa 99.62 Stanng243 847.23
43. ScopehJ 99.54 TurnoftheCentury 846.38
44. useyourloaf 99.51 Kyser73 841.73
45. Grads 99.51 ConfusedGamer 841.30
46. Quinton 99.37 HighJump 839.90
47. CosmicBolt 99.30 Slarvax 831.85
48. Limabean01 99.19 DanR93 831.10
49. Wandu 99.15 Noobie 815.23
50. Dougieflesh 99.03 Sterok 809.96Congratulations, uptownsoul! :D
I'm not sure what you think, but the common predictions is 4-5 million in sales for Metroid Prime 4 making it the best selling Metroid game ever.
PS4 sales are now higher than the lifetime sales of PS3.
The latter, it sold more currently than PS3's entire life.
It is time to definitely put an end to the "x fanbase already own the console so x game won't sell systems" because everytime it is used it's proven wrong when x game released.
This is... untrue. We must also consider that there's a demographic that will be attracted by a sci fi shooter like Metroid which may not already own a Switch.
The user I quoted called Pokemon Let's Go + Smash = 'the calm before the storm', with pictures of Animal Crossing (a big franchise) and metroid...
That's really impressive -- it's going to absolutely decimate it's sales when it's all said and done. I can't decide if this info makes moving on to the PS5 so early make more or less sense.
Everytime? Not really...
Anyway, I think Metroid never was a real system seller, so I don't see why would be different now. Can't wait to play because I really like Metroid Prime, but will not move hardware.
Is it not up for the year in the US? All Sony need to do is supply enough of the $199 bundle but I guess they would rather be swimming in profit then sell extra units. Nothing sad about the ps4's situation. It's still selling at a faster pace then the ps2 WW. Sony are experiencing a new golden era.
I think the understanding isn't in Metroid's ability to sell itself, but in its ability to sell systems. In which case, as a science fiction first person shooter unlike literally anything else Nintendo makes, it could end up selling a fair few people a Switch who would otherwise maybe not have considered it (assuming the game is good enough). It doesn't have to sell BotW levels to achieve that.
I understand what you're trying to say, but I still don't see it moving more systems than a Pokemon x smash combo.
I mean Nintendo is literally about to have a record December because of that and are still confident they can hit their 20M target.
Metroid will probably be the best selling of the franchise, but that's not what we're talking about.
Well that's wrong. The user had AC, Pokemon and Metroid in that post.
He also had a picture of Pokemon (indicating the gen 8 Pokemon game), which, when combined with Animal Crossing, is probably already bigger than Smash + Pokemon Let's Go in terms of system sellers.
Metroid Prime 4 is basically an afterthought in terms of software and hardware sales compared to those, I agree.
Pretty much every Nintendo IP since the Switch launch tend to break records established by previous entries or at the very least overperform, and of course Smash is the culmination of all those IP. It really looks like Nintendo brands have more visibilty and power than ever. Having all the titles focused on a single platform is probably helping a lot too.
The thing however is that Nintendo doesn't need a Smash x Pokémon combo holiday next year, they just need a higher general standard for their lineup than they had this year. On that front they already seem well equipped (and Metroid contributes to that without being a Pokémon caliber heavy hitter itself).
We cant look at December in a vacuum anymore. During the old days with huge December numbers, November was relatively muted.
Today that changed with more and more of the holiday sales occurring in November.
So far this generation the highest November + December total was around 3 million.
For both Ps4 and Xbox One. Even tho the latter was a little lower.
2.5m for Switch in December would result in close to 4 million for the holiday period.
I'm not saying Switch couldn't achieve that, but it would be a monster performance and nothing that should be expected.
I think Switch will be slightly up YoY in December. But nowhere close to November. Low double digit growth and below 2 million for sure.
Smash on the other hand is shouting records broken.
If Switch didn't break 2 million mark, december thread will gone wild.
While it won't be negligible like some are saying, it's a series whose best games sell just over 2M which isn't a lot. And considering how many of those fans probably already jumped on board with the Switch, I doubt Prime will move as much as some are hyping up. Not even remotely close to be worthy of mentioning in the same breath as Pokemon and Animal Crossing lol. The people who sleep on Smash, Zelda, Mario, Animal Crossing, Xenoblade, Fire Emblem, etc but only go for the Metroid are so few and far between.
It will really depend on the direction they take with the game. If we see Metroid Prime Trilogy release in early 2019 and MP4 is moved to 2020 and follows the same path as the original trilogy (meaning no online focus), then sales should see improvement over the original trilogy sales, but still not light the world on fire -- maybe a 2-3m range.
If MP4 embraces an online direction -- be it online multiplayer or another form, then those sales could see a boost to the 5m range.
I think we'll get a decent gauge of player interest in the franchise if/when we see Metroid Prime Trilogy come to Switch.
Maybe its because Zelda is on track to sell twice as much as the previous best selling Zelda ?
With the way Switch software sales are going I feel that Metroid will be the next Nintendo franchise that reaches a critical success level. We have no idea how far in development it is but there are signs that it started development as early as 2015 and that means they're putting a lot of effort in making content for it.
First of all the question was about the US, second it's up YoY, this is the second time you're spreading misinformation.
What are you talking about? We just got the unofficial NPD numbers...
But why?
1.8 million would still be the best month of this console generation.
It would still be the best December of the generation.
The issue with this thinking is that Sony and Microsoft don't usually put out their big selling exclusives in November and December. Nintendo have done precisely that and a lot of people have waited until Pokemon and Smash have come out to get a Switch.
Last December the only notable exclusive release for the Switch was Xenoblade. This December has Smash + Pokemon from a couple weeks ago. Smash and Pokemon should more than make up for the lack of cyber Monday for this December's tracking. It wouldn't surprise me if the Switch sold over 1 million in Smash week.
But Metroid really isn't a sc-fi shooter. It's a exploration game that happens to be in first-person.
That's honestly isn't saying much since I've seen the same thing said about Bayonatte on both the Wii U and Switch.
Plus modern hardware makers know how to squeeze extra money from us with special editions.
Here's the Metroid Prime 4 switch with joycons with the logo on the stick and a glow in the dark Metroid on the dock, with dlc pass.
Nintendo even put up a video a couple weeks ago "How to prepare your switch for trading in" to show people how to get stuff to their new unit.
Personally I don't think Prime 4 is actually a 2019 game though. That's not based off of anything in particular, I just think it's a game that probably needs a long development cycle.
If I remember correctly the Switch sold 1.5 million in December 2017, without a major release since SMO. I think with Let's Go and Smash the Switch should manage to sell at least 2.0 million this year.
I'm curious if they'll go for that. They tried a multiplayer mode in Metroid Prime 2 that ended up pretty forgettable. But if this controls like a more traditional two stick shooter with gyro aim, and they make a multiplayer mode that works well both online and on couch, then I'd certainly be interested. It would be pretty amazing if Nintendo somehow were the ones to revitalize local split screen multiplayer FPS games.
Nintendo consoles always get way bigger boosts in December because of the "family friendly" image making it an ideal Christmas gift for kids. Last year Switch sales doubled from November to December, even though like you said the other platforms are skewing more heavily towards November.
It's certainly possible that this November has taken away a substantial amount of December Switch sales but I really doubt it personally. It's not like their promotions in November were that good.
I guess we'll have to wait and see if conforms to the typical Nintendo November > December boost or not.
I don't think so either if only because they've probably got enough holiday games to let MP4 slip into 2020 and polish it even more. It's a game that will live or die based on how good it is, much more than for other titles.
YoY numbers which is what the post you quoted was talking about.
If you're talking about the -13%, that's for the month of november, not the full year, though.
For the year, the PS4 was still up YOY after October, can anyone help us with the yoy % after november ? Welfare gave a lot of stats, but not this one I think.
Metroid really isn't a FPS, at least not in the way people usually think. People who played the multiplier of Echos and even Hunters can attest to this.
Because people are with high expectations.
1.8m maybe would be a little disappointing relatively of what sold in dec 17, despite being a very good mark. Anything above 2 million would be amazing.
He means Year to Date (not YoY) numbers, which have PS4 150k ahead of last year iirc.
Oh I see. Thanks for clarifying.
I read that as down 13% for the year.
Might still be down for the year after December. We'll have to wait for the numbers to see.