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November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
How do you think cycber monday will effect Switch this dec since it in Nov this year .
Back in the day Dec unit sales would be between 2 to 3x more than what was sold in November.
These days you'll find December is generally higher, but not significantly so.
Last year we saw PS4 and XB1 had lower sales in December. Which is just something you'd never see before. Black Friday deals are a much bigger..... deal.... these days.
Thats just US though. Japan is near flat and EU is unknown.
How much better than 40m?
Yeah because their PR conflicted with my data so I was really really confused.
In the end my gut and data was right though and their PR was underestimating the actual November sales.
not anyone we should concern ourselves with, no
thanks as always for the insight Benji! hopefully you can have a stress free holiday
Yup. Told you not to doubt yourself. You've been right on the money every time. The PR was wrong.
EU will be up significantly like UK numbers have shown and the Mario Kart bundle is available the whole December.
Interesting. Do you have any idea if even older consoles would make the list. Like NES or SNES?
Not really, not even close. they need to sell 5m units more than the last fiscal year to do it, and now they pulled 0.5m ahead from November in the US.
17-18m is much more realistic at this point.
With the momentum from Super Smash Bros, Pokemon, Mario Party and others, yup! I think it can.
I wish if Benji can share his thoughts.
I don't know about this.
Data prior to 1995 is hard to find and also unreliable.
UK seems to be doing its part too, being 50% up over the past few weeks.
And Japan is up now in sell-through (according to MC) and is definitely up significantly in terms of shipments, since it was essentially sold out all year last Q3.
Yeah Nintendo's PR often underestimates their sales significantly. I guess to them it's better than overestimating.
Being 50% up on Q3 would put Switch at 15.93m. For 20 million Nintendo needs to ship 4.07m in Q4 (Last year they shipped 2.92m).
I think 4 million for Q4 is a little too much.
Keep in mind that these are sell-through numbers and the 20 million units forecast is shipped.
Well I've always said the path to 20M was ~11M in Q3 and ~4M in Q4, so yeah while it's definitely a lot it's probably their only real shot.
It's by no means guaranteed of course, just possible now.
That's not how it works...
By the end of Q3 Japan will be significantly up and every data we have shows that it's also way up in Europe. And EU has better December deals than US.
That will be pretty bad channel stuffing if they did ship too much vs how much it actually sells.
This will affect the early half performance of 2019.
Oh. Shame. I would imagine that at least NES would be up there though (as Nintendo shipped about 9.3 million units to Americas between September 1988 - 1989) and December used to be bigger part of the holidays than nowadays like you said.
How big is usually the discrepancy between sell-through and shipments?
EDIT: Didn't see that they were banned while I was typing my response.
The lineup in Jan (2D Mario) already means the line-up is better than last year significantly. If another mid size title is released in March then 4 million seems fine
Benji, I join the other members in appreciating the insights you give
but...
Was it you or other insiders that hinted XBox 1 gonna have a disappointing month? I think there were no hints that the console was moving unites , all the talk was about PS4 and Switch. Seeing the numbers Pork posted the sales are closer than anyone expected.
Can you explain that from your side?
They need to sell 5m units more than last year to achieve their goal, nothing wrong with that. I'm just trying to estimate how much more they can sell.
Yup, of course (and they over-shipped in Q4 last fiscal year, btw).
I actually think Switch is a new phenomenon like the Wii, it is just priced higher and without a game like Wii.still, it will outperform it in the end, probably, and it will have much stronger software library with a user-base that Nintendo actually can maintain and fight for unlike Wii.
What leaks were out there put 360 over Wii in US (over 45M?), making it second best selling console in US to date. It nearly doubled the install-base from this point in time.
They need to SHIP 5m more. And NPD numbers are sell-in. And US is only a part of their global market.
In sell-through. Likely far higher in shipments because remember, it was virtually sold out constantly last year including in November and December.
Unless I'm mistaken sell-in = shipped= sold to retailers. Sell-through = sold to consumers.
So NPD numbers are sell-through, not sell-in.
Hi Benji,
First, thanks the useful info!
Then, is Switch actually closer to Xbox or to PS4?
The really BIG suprise here will be if Xbox leads in revenue thanks to X model bundles.
To be fair calling the Switch's November performance "poor" is something you would only do if you wanted to troll with an alt-account.
I don't need the Switch to be the Wii. The Wii was amazing, but ended very poorly. Switch get get less sales, but be more consistent through the latter years.
I just didnt really comment much on the Xbox this month other than it being down YoY
That said it certainly did better than I had expected. Inwas thinking it was going to be more around 1.1 - 1.2ish. My guess would be a very strong Cyber Mobday for it, as they still had a lot of inventory of the Minecraft Holiday bundle in stock while PS4 was essentially sold out.
I believe it was another insider who said that Xbox would have an outright poor month. Considering I was still projecting it over 1 million it certainly wasnt me.
Damn this is first time 3 home consoles did over 1M in a month. That is crazzzzy.
December is a wrap for Switch, Nintendo got that in the bag. With no deals for PS4 that I can see, they actually might come in 3rd. That COD bundle should have been 249 at least. Xbox numbers are indeed extremely impressive. With some random $249 deals, I can see it taking 2nd, but no way can I see Nintendo losing this momentum.
December is a wrap for Switch, Nintendo got that in the bag. With no deals for PS4 that I can see, they actually might come in 3rd. That COD bundle should have been 249 at least. Xbox numbers are indeed extremely impressive. With some random $249 deals, I can see it taking 2nd, but no way can I see Nintendo losing this momentum.
How's December looking for the big three right now? I'm guessing Switch sales on fire?
Its more so that the early weeks for November were down quite a bit YoY
I mentioned this a while ago. Switch was outselling it for the month prior to BF
I'm reading this late so pardon if someone has corrected you since you said this, I haven't read any further yet, but the PlayStation Portable sold 82 million units. So I'd say your statement that it wasn't "successful" is flat out wrong.
The 360 surpassed the Wii in November 2014 in the US.
But at this point both consoles weren't really selling much so the LTD gap between the two isn't really that significant.
Wow at the difference between Fallout and Battlefield. #3? Really? Much better than i expected.
Sounds like RDR2 and Black Ops 4 are pretty close at retail. I guess BO4 will do better with digital included.
I think he removed PSP/DS/3DS because they're not classified as consoles by the NPD, not because he was saying they were not successful. Link.