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November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Question will be Q3, of course, since that's what we're studying in the US as well. I'm on mobile so I can't do a comparison for Media Create YoY, but maybe Japan won't fall quite as short when looking at Q3 specifically.
PS4 - 1475k
XB1 - 1340k
So PS4 outsold XBOX by over 1 Million units in 2018 thus far?
1070k if my math is correct.
XB1 - 1340k
So PS4 outsold XBOX by over 1 Million units in 2018 thus far?
1070k if my math is correct.
I know it was mainly about what was required in Q3 but I'm just saying that even if the switch isn't quite up the 50% required in Q3 it might make up for that somewhat in Q4.
I could also see it ending up being up around 30-40% on the high end. Due to the smaller size of the market if the US can end up 55% as mentioned that should bring them close to what's required.
Next year it could do near 3 million if all goes according to plan.
Also, they were offering heavily discounted PSVR bundles too. That's like selling a second console.
I wonder about that.
Think switch will end up like other consoles where Nov eat sales from Dec.
Not yet it's not. Potentially pulling 20 million in its second year ok the market with no price cut, limited bundles and a fairly lacklustre lineup is impressive. Add in Pokémon gen 8, a revision + price drop and a generally stronger lineup and I think we might see the switch pulling those sort of numbers next year.
Nintendo tends to benefit more from Christmas and don't seem to provide as good deals in November so I see that impacting them less. At the very least the presence of smash bros will prevent that happening this year.
The Switch December boost will be lessened because Cyber Monday was in November's tracking. Nintendo consoles do see a significant boost for Christmas though, so still expect massive sales. There's also Smash this year. Next year will have Pokemon Gen 8, a price cut, and a new model (if the rumors are true).
November wants to steal December sales so bad it took a whole week this year.
November wants to steal December sales so bad it took a whole week this year.
Some days ago, someone posted this about the biggest november ever :
Wii 2008 - 2.04m
360 2011 - 1.70m
PS4 2017 - 1.69m
PS4 2015 - 1.54m
XB1 2017 - 1.38m
Which means we have a new top 5 right now :
Wii 2008 - 2.04m
360 2011 - 1.70m
PS4 2017 - 1.69m
PS4 2015 - 1.54m
PS4 2018 - 1.48m
Someone should post the 5 biggest december so we can see what kind of target Switch could aim for.
Wii 2008 - 2.04m
360 2011 - 1.70m
PS4 2017 - 1.69m
PS4 2015 - 1.54m
XB1 2017 - 1.38m
Which means we have a new top 5 right now :
Wii 2008 - 2.04m
360 2011 - 1.70m
PS4 2017 - 1.69m
PS4 2015 - 1.54m
PS4 2018 - 1.48m
Someone should post the 5 biggest december so we can see what kind of target Switch could aim for.
So the difference is 4 million now.
Still think will grow to 6 million until end of this generation .
I don't think so. Nintendo always seems to do their best sales in December. It will only get better each December until it starts to drop 4-5 year. Next December it might be the peak for Switch sales.
Man I was pretty much spot on for the switch and PS4 but really blew the xbox prediction. Was really thinking it was going to be down big and yet it held almost even from last year which is amazing.
It's not that shocking when cyber Monday is also included which last year didn't.
Top 5 Home Console Decembers
WII 2009 - 3.81M
PS2 2002 - 2.69M
WII 2010 - 2.36M
WII 2008 - 2.15M
PS2 2001 - 1.95M
3.9M actually.
Gap will most likely shrink in December like last year. 4M won't happen until the middle of 2019.
I dunno some people are thinking it might grab 3rd place. Seems a bit too ambitious to me.
It should certainly take 5th place though, and very possibly 4th too.
And this is exactly why this gap has been growing so slowly Sony always allows them to claw back. Just like the infamous 50 vs no 50 price cut back in 2014.
You will find different numbers for 6th gen floating around the net. Hard to know which is the most accurate since NPD makes revisions.
Sony is on it's own game. We here tend to care to much about things like gap.
great month for everyone, Switch killed it, Xbox One with the surprise finish, and PS4 is still chugging along despite being down
good stuff from pork too
shout out to everyone who gets annoyed when everyone wins because, well, everyone won
good stuff from pork too
shout out to everyone who gets annoyed when everyone wins because, well, everyone won
As fun as it was to get NPD numbers today.. all I really wanted was PR regarding Smash.. :P
Is it likely it'll come today? or am I waiting in vain hehe
Is it likely it'll come today? or am I waiting in vain hehe
Nintendo may be waiting for it to hit a specific number like 10 million or something. If not we won't find out until their financial earnings in January.
Rather poor result for Switch in my view, these numbers include a pretty big Cyber Monday after all, so the December sales might disappoint..
Then again, they didn't release that many killer apps this year (only LGPE) so I guess it is a good result for what they provided to the market.
Xbox might win revenue. Unless there are deals I am not aware of.
Then again, they didn't release that many killer apps this year (only LGPE) so I guess it is a good result for what they provided to the market.
Xbox might win revenue. Unless there are deals I am not aware of.
Next week is probably our best chance now. I'm guessing they were waiting for it to pass a certain milestone like 10M sold or something before issuing PR.
How is being the only console up yoy a "poor" result? Lmao
Xbox is around 39-40 million no more than that. To be 50 million they had to sold 16 million in 2018. Impossible. More around 7-8 million worldwide this year. Imagining us as only 60% for them.
There had to be someone to say the Switch was poor results. 😔
It's poor relative to the target they want to hit at 20 million. Plus it has big Cyber Monday boost.
It's up, but I am not impressed by the absolute numbers. The others fell from greater heights (higher absolute numbers in Novembers of other years), while NSW still have some way to go to match their potential.
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PS4 in US isn't strong at the level the WW number sugest it could be. Likely it's because XBO is much more stronger competitor in US than WW.
It's tracking ahead of PS2 and almost on par with Wii WW, but in US never sold even 6 million in a year. PS2, Wii and even 360 did that.
This list should actually have PS1 entries for Dec 97, 98, 99.
But I don't think those numbers are public.
December used to be a much bigger month but now we're getting to the point where November is much bigger chunk of sales.
Xbox One has always been very competitive in US. Strong brand + aggressive promotions and deals by MS worked well.
All time peaks are less relevant than LTDs. PS4 should end up at an LTD of 37-40 million in the US, which is up there.
Guess back in day PS1 was monster in Dec .
So that is three 2 million plus Dec make sense since Nov was much weaker back then .
These numbers are exactly what we needed to see to hit the 20 million forecast though. 75% up for November makes them about ~54% up for Q3, when they needed to be around 50% up for Q3. If December is also up at least 50% (and it probably should be with Smash vs XC2) then they're in fantastic shape.
360 did better than 40m.
PS4 is kinda underperforming in USA, considering the WW trend. But it's justified by Xbox One being strong in US.
Like I said
PS4 and Xbox One both down YoY (Xbox impresses me though. Down less than I thought)
Switch significantly up YoY
All 3 over 1 million
PS4 still leads the month but by a narrower margin than last year with it and Switch being very close in units.
People still doubt me?
The official PR on Cyber Monday from Nintendo downplayed the results by 500k, how is this disappointing in that context?