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November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
as far as i can see all we can say is the ps4 sold out on black friday.
we don't know the amount of stock, but some seem disappointed because they come to the conclusion that selling out meant low stock. what if they had a crazy amount and still sold out?
we don't know the amount of stock, but some seem disappointed because they come to the conclusion that selling out meant low stock. what if they had a crazy amount and still sold out?
We went through this same exact situation last year, with the same hot takes and overreactions and the result was the higher november of the generation. /shrug
selling out never means low stocks, specially at times like this!
Last year also had 2 massive launches in Call of Duty WW2 and Battlefront 2 which both had bundles.
There are 4 weeks in November, not 1.
It has been doing well the whole year and currently the top seller of the year, had a great deal, and was bundled with one of the hottest games this year. That said no one thinks it will be a blowout like last year and December is predicted to be a win for Switch.
Most people in here have been tracking sales for years, if they are predicting PS4 to have the highest hardware sales, it probably will..don't doubt that.
Sales insiders seem to think it edged out Switch, though not by all that much. It could go either way but it's likely PS4.
game been out for like 12 hours only, wait a little longer
I'll have data for that tomorrow.
But I stand firm on what my projections for it are
From what I've seen.
Smash a bigger launch compared to pokemon.
Up there with God of War and Spider-man.
Smash a bigger launch compared to pokemon.
Up there with God of War and Spider-man.
Yeah that was always going to be the case. In Japan apparently the first day sales for Smash were like twice as high as Pokemon.
Has it been moving a significant amount of hardware?
It hasn't had a major impact but its moving some units.
I mean it's hard to tell when
1) You launch a system seller not even a month ago that had better bundles and deals near it.
2) its holiday shopping season.
I mean it's hard to tell when
1) You launch a system seller not even a month ago that had better bundles and deals near it.
2) its holiday shopping season.
Anecdotally, I was in the Target electronics section getting Smash this morning and there were three (3) people there buying Smash including myself. I then went over to the grocery part of Target and one of the guys that bought Smash was also picking up a half gallon of milk like me.
Going by that, I'm pretty comfortable saying that Smash should be outselling half gallons of milk 3:2 in the month of December.
Edit: Further anecdotal evidence, all four (4) people on my Switch friend's list are currently playing Smash. This actually is pretty surprising because one of them hasn't played his Switch since last October. Extrapolating from this, I think Smash should easily sell at least 1:1 with all hardware sold so far in the US at least.
Going by that, I'm pretty comfortable saying that Smash should be outselling half gallons of milk 3:2 in the month of December.
Edit: Further anecdotal evidence, all four (4) people on my Switch friend's list are currently playing Smash. This actually is pretty surprising because one of them hasn't played his Switch since last October. Extrapolating from this, I think Smash should easily sell at least 1:1 with all hardware sold so far in the US at least.
The good milk (more % fat) or the garbage milk (low % fat, around 1.5%)?
I got 2%, I forgot to peek to see what he got.
Edit: One of my friends just snapped me his friend's list of 3 people (including me) also all playing Smash. The evidence is getting out of control!
I've never done the correlation math on half gallons of milk and video game sales. Interesting. Might have to partner with IRI to get that sweet milk data, but nothing is impossible.
Pretty big, I'd say. The same ratio was reported by Chris over at Media Create for Japan, so it's possible that this will be a worldwide trend for day one sales.
Benji I was wondering about the following: is this comparison a retail vs. retail comparison on your sample, or does it include some assumptions about the digital ratios for the two games?
Huh. Maybe Smash will be able to get to 20 million LTD
It's been having good word of mouth with friends who don't really play Smash. Pretty cool.
It's been having good word of mouth with friends who don't really play Smash. Pretty cool.
To be honest I'm expecting it to double Odyssey's first three days and do 1.8-2 Million first weekend in the US. Seems like a lot of people are buying it.
I think 20M should probably be expected now, I'm thinking 22-23M lifetime.
What were the numbers that GOW and Spider-Man did again? I can't remember, and it might help put Deader's comment into perspective.
Wasn't God of War 1.8 million and Spider-Man 2.5 million? Smash should easily beat God of War and past Spider-Man no?
It should, yeah. Pokémon did 1.5M in 2 weeks (although that was helped by Black Friday, but Smash will be helped by Christmas sales). GOW should be easily beaten I think, Spider-Man is more difficult, but I think it will do it, if Benji's observation for day 1 has enough longevity to be somewhat applicable for the rest of the month.