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z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
I'm not going to continue with this hypothetical result, maybe we can pick it back up in April 2019, if those other things come to pass. I was wrong about the date, because I realized that Nintendo Switch would be ahead by nearly 1 Million, while PS4 would over 2 more weeks to hit their 37 Million goal during December. Point was that it would be heavily in Sony's favor, and if Nintendo hit's their 20 Million goal, that would be much faster given that time frame.

Don't worry so much about what I think about Sony releasing a handheld, I could be wrong, Vita 2 might sell better than the PSP, but I doubt it, and as for Sony supporting 2 systems in the next gen era, I mean it's possible, but if they are going with different architectures, they have to port between the two and it is going to be a hard sell for developers when there is no likely hood of success for that device.

I will steal this quote even if no one mentions playing chess. It is still a wonderful analogy and I will claim that I made it up myself if someone asks me in the meatworld. (I won't really, but it's still great analogy for wildly impossible claims).

When it comes to chess, especially against someone like Carlsen, if you don't read 4 or 5 moves ahead, you are likely already in check mate.
 

Liabe Brave

Professionally Enhanced
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,672
The comparison is actually slightly (very slightly) in favour of PS4, since the comparison mentioned compares PS4 from November 2013 until the end of December 2015 versus Switch March 2017 through to the end of March 2019. At those respective points in time (end of December 2015 and end of March 2019), PS4 hit 37M shipped, and Switch would hit 37.8M shipped if it reaches its fiscal year goal, while PS4 would have finished its third holiday already.
"Launch aligned" is typically used to mean month-by-month (i.e. starting with Nov 2013 for PS4 and Mar 2017 for Switch). The point I was making was that, if you line up launches this way, Switch is 25 months old at the end of March 2019; PS4 at 25 months still had December 2015 ahead of it. So the claim that Switch would be past PS4's third holiday by then is simply false.

But you're correct that if we make the comparison by quarter instead--Switch starting January 2017 and PS4 starting October 2013, and running for 9 quarters--then PS4 has a few more weeks of sales included. However, the shipment figures for Sony over that period are 37.7m, not 37m. If Switch just hits its 20m FY target, it'll be about 100k units ahead, not 800k units ahead. (Of course, this is still a very good result.)

in no way April follow up March release had the same power that December follow up November release
Yes, the two-month period of a holiday launch is typically bigger than the two-month period of launch elsewhen in the year. However, the magnitudes of these two types of launches are usually more similar to each other than either is to a non-launch holiday. So the periods aren't directly commensurate because of the difference...but they're also not wholly disjunct, because of the similarity.

I will steal this quote even if no one mentions playing chess. It is still a wonderful analogy and I will claim that I made it up myself if someone asks me in the meatworld. (I won't really, but it's still great analogy for wildly impossible claims).
Thing is, I wouldn't characterize his various what-if claims as "wildly impossible". Switch really could sell faster than PS4 over the next couple years launch-aligned, just like Magnus Carlsen's opponents often actually are in deep trouble. But the reason is highly unlikely to be that Carlsen's spending turns promoting a gaggle of pawns. Similarly, PS5 may falter in its success, but probably not because a Switch-derived platform is a direct competitor. It's the difference between possibility and plausibility.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
"Launch aligned" is typically used to mean month-by-month (i.e. starting with Nov 2013 for PS4 and Mar 2017 for Switch). The point I was making was that, if you line up launches this way, Switch is 25 months old at the end of March 2019; PS4 at 25 months still had December 2015 ahead of it. So the claim that Switch would be past PS4's third holiday by then is simply false.

But you're correct that if we make the comparison by quarter instead--Switch starting January 2017 and PS4 starting October 2013, and running for 9 quarters--then PS4 has a few more weeks of sales included. However, the shipment figures for Sony over that period are 37.7m, not 37m. If Switch just hits its 20m FY target, it'll be about 100k units ahead, not 800k units ahead. (Of course, this is still a very good result.)


Yes, the two-month period of a holiday launch is typically bigger than the two-month period of launch elsewhen in the year. However, the magnitudes of these two types of launches are usually more similar to each other than either is to a non-launch holiday. So the periods aren't directly commensurate because of the difference...but they're also not wholly disjunct, because of the similarity.


Thing is, I wouldn't characterize his various what-if claims as "wildly impossible". Switch really could sell faster than PS4 over the next couple years launch-aligned, just like Magnus Carlsen's opponents often actually are in deep trouble. But the reason is highly unlikely to be that Carlsen's spending turns promoting a gaggle of pawns. Similarly, PS5 may falter in its success, but probably not because a Switch-derived platform is a direct competitor. It's the difference between possibility and plausibility.
I agree with everything you said, especially this last part. As I've said a couple posts ago. Sony is the only one in the way of PS5's success and that I expect it to sell 100M+ units. Nintendo will just have changed the perception that everyone else is taking a back seat to Sony's lead, that is what the whole "crown" stuff and perception is about.

And again, Nintendo Switch will have sold 37.8M+ by the end of March next year if they meet their goal, while Sony PS4 would still need that December to reach it's 37.7M that is a huge difference IMO, but you are right, I thought it through months ago and forgot that PS4's 3rd holiday was simply irrelevant if Switch hits it's goal. Thanks for pointing it out.
 

Omnistalgic

self-requested temp ban
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,973
NJ
Different stokes of fanboyism going on here I see...

Eh...I kinda dig it lol

PS4 expected to have the biggest November I'm assuming and Switch taking December?
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,228
The comparison is actually slightly (very slightly) in favour of PS4, since the comparison mentioned compares PS4 from November 2013 until the end of December 2015 versus Switch March 2017 through to the end of March 2019. At those respective points in time (end of December 2015 and end of March 2019), PS4 hit 37M shipped, and Switch would hit 37.8M shipped if it reaches its fiscal year goal, while PS4 would have finished its third holiday already. Not that it matters too much who is a couple of 100k's ahead: both did/are doing great, and the long run will be more important to determine the final result (especially with PS4 setting a massive precedent for strong long term sales).
No it's it In the favour of PS4, not at all. Switch starting at a lower price point has all the advantage. Besides talking 3 holidays vs 2 is dumb since the Switch sold million in March which consoles don't usually do. March launch for the Switch got holiday like number so the 3 vs 2 holidays is moot. Lower price has in most cases the advantage.
 

Liabe Brave

Professionally Enhanced
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,672
And again, Nintendo Switch will have sold 37.8M+ by the end of March next year if they meet their goal, while Sony PS4 would still need that December to reach it's 37.7M that is a huge difference IMO, but you are right, I thought it through months ago and forgot that PS4's 3rd holiday was simply irrelevant if Switch hits it's goal. Thanks for pointing it out.
You've got this wrong. We're talking shipments, not sell-through. It takes roughly a month for electronics to travel from China to their final destinations around the world (28 days' stock is a typical LC level). So what PS4 shipped in December was actually supply for January; what they sold in December had already been shipped by November. So the two platform's shipments aren't different that way: that last month of shipping isn't for holidays in either case.

PS4 expected to have the biggest November I'm assuming...?
Technically, any platform could have the biggest November. Everyone agrees PS4 and Switch are plausibly in the running, but Microsoft always has very good holidays. Given the retail rumblings we've heard it's not super likely they come out on top...but it's not impossible either.

does someone knows/ have the numbers of PS4 units from November last year?
PS4 did 1.69m last November. This is the third best home console November of all time, behind Wii (2.04m) and Xbox 360 (1.7m).
 

Timppis

Banned
Apr 27, 2018
2,857
Thing is, I wouldn't characterize his various what-if claims as "wildly impossible". Switch really could sell faster than PS4 over the next couple years launch-aligned, just like Magnus Carlsen's opponents often actually are in deep trouble. But the reason is highly unlikely to be that Carlsen's spending turns promoting a gaggle of pawns. Similarly, PS5 may falter in its success, but probably not because a Switch-derived platform is a direct competitor. It's the difference between possibility and plausibility.

Indeed and my post was supposed to read wildly implausible not impossible... but somehow both my brain and my fingers managed to screw that one up.
 

El-Pistolero

Banned
Jan 4, 2018
1,308
I agree with everything you said, especially this last part. As I've said a couple posts ago. Sony is the only one in the way of PS5's success and that I expect it to sell 100M+ units. Nintendo will just have changed the perception that everyone else is taking a back seat to Sony's lead, that is what the whole "crown" stuff and perception is about.

And again, Nintendo Switch will have sold 37.8M+ by the end of March next year if they meet their goal, while Sony PS4 would still need that December to reach it's 37.7M that is a huge difference IMO, but you are right, I thought it through months ago and forgot that PS4's 3rd holiday was simply irrelevant if Switch hits it's goal. Thanks for pointing it out.

The perception game only plays in the mind of certain forums frequenters, I must say. The reality is that the PS4 is already old news for Sony, and that their teams are gearing up towards the launch of its successor. The Switch would be -according to your logic, and in the manner of a valiant Don Quichotte- chasing after a Ghost...
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
You've got this wrong. We're talking shipments, not sell-through. It takes roughly a month for electronics to travel from China to their final destinations around the world (28 days' stock is a typical LC level). So what PS4 shipped in December was actually supply for January; what they sold in December had already been shipped by November. So the two platform's shipments aren't different that way: that last month of shipping isn't for holidays in either case.

When we are talking about world wide sales, this isn't true. Japan shipments can be made multiple times a week if needed, China as well, and Europe are also more frequent than a month out iirc. Japan also has a very large New years holiday that sits in January, and would be part of that shipment. Even if we were just talking about North America, we are looking at 25 months vs 26 months, for Switch to be ahead, it is no small feat.
The perception game only plays in the mind of certain forums frequenters, I must say. The reality is that the PS4 is already old news for Sony, and that their teams are gearing up towards the launch of its successor. The Switch would be -according to your logic, and in the manner of a valiant Don Quichotte- chasing after a Ghost...
PS2 sold something like 30 Million units after PS3 launched. I'm not sure Sony is looking to ignore it's current platform and perception going into PS5, years before PS4 is done selling. It's not some big deal that everyone is making it into though, if you really think companies don't pay attention to their competition, then why do you think that Sony specifically said that they are paying attention to Nintendo Switch's success and need to react to it?
 
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Penny Royal

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
4,158
QLD, Australia
Wtf is going on ITT? PS5 will fail because Sony are launching a handheld, & the games on NSW & PS4XB are all the same? Dafuq am I reading this nonsense for?

I'm putting money on 'perception' becoming the new 'narrative' when it comes to chronic overuse.

[NSW] 1400K
[PS4] 1700K
[XB1] 1400K
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,069
PS2 sold something like 30 Million units after PS3 launched. I'm not sure Sony is looking to ignore it's current platform and perception going into PS5, years before PS4 is done selling. It's not some big deal that everyone is making it into though, if you really think companies don't pay attention to their competition, then why do you think that Sony specifically said that they are paying attention to Nintendo Switch's success and need to react to it?

That was a while ago they talk about switch .
Sure they pay attention but right now the people at Sony would be thinking about PS5 more than anything else.
As for PS4 just dropping the price seem to be working so that is all they need to do when PS5 comes out .
They have good set of games leading into PS5 and doing other things so perception wise they find.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
That was a while ago they talk about switch .
Sure they pay attention but right now the people at Sony would be thinking about PS5 more than anything else.
As for PS4 just dropping the price seem to be working so that is all they need to do when PS5 comes out .
They have good set of games leading into PS5 and doing other things so perception wise they find.
Yeah, like I said, I expect PS5 to sell 100 Million units. Someone just said Sony doesn't have anything to worry about, and I mentioned that they might be worried about the perception that Playstation is the lead console might not be true if a bunch of things pan out with Nintendo Switch, nothing that is set in stone, but 18 months from now, that could be a real thing they worry about.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,725
Italy
No it's it In the favour of PS4, not at all. Switch starting at a lower price point has all the advantage. Besides talking 3 holidays vs 2 is dumb since the Switch sold million in March which consoles don't usually do. March launch for the Switch got holiday like number so the 3 vs 2 holidays is moot. Lower price has in most cases the advantage.

The very fact that there is even a debate for an actual comparison shows the amazing result achieved by Nintendo as they were coming from Wii U and Switch was really a bet. PS4 is among the fastest selling consoles of all time.
 

shark97

Banned
Nov 7, 2017
5,327
When we are talking about world wide sales, this isn't true. Japan shipments can be made multiple times a week if needed, China as well, and Europe are also more frequent than a month out iirc. Japan also has a very large New years holiday that sits in January, and would be part of that shipment. Even if we were just talking about North America, we are looking at 25 months vs 26 months, for Switch to be ahead, it is no small feat.

PS2 sold something like 30 Million units after PS3 launched. I'm not sure Sony is looking to ignore it's current platform and perception going into PS5, years before PS4 is done selling. It's not some big deal that everyone is making it into though, if you really think companies don't pay attention to their competition, then why do you think that Sony specifically said that they are paying attention to Nintendo Switch's success and need to react to it?


ps2 was an outlier. no other system has sold great after it's successor was on the market.

also, i doubt sony is all that worried about switch. a lot of it's momentum seems to have cooled, and ps4 is selling well as ever.

nintendo at this point is more supplemental to ps/xbox than direct competition imo. not the same experiences. all 3 are doing well.
 

Jade1962

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
4,259
The very fact that there is even a debate for an actual comparison shows the amazing result achieved by Nintendo as they were coming from Wii U and Switch was really a bet. PS4 is among the fastest selling consoles of all time.

I'd say Switch has more in common with the 3DS/handheld than the Wii U. It's a design is informed by it's need to be portable.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,725
Italy
ps2 was an outlier. no other system has sold great after it's successor was on the market.

also, i doubt sony is all that worried about switch. a lot of it's momentum seems to have cooled, and ps4 is selling well as ever.

nintendo at this point is more supplemental to ps/xbox than direct competition imo. not the same experiences. all 3 are doing well.

Switch has always been an indirect competitor for PS4 and XB1, indeed. Also, PS2 sold well after PS3 launch because PS3 early years numbers were terrible and PS2 expanded a lot in developing countries.

I'd say Switch has more in common with the 3DS/handheld than the Wii U. It's a design is informed by it's need to be portable.

Switch was positioned as the Wii U successor in terms of price and lineup offering.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
I'd say Switch has more in common with the 3DS/handheld than the Wii U. It's a design is informed by it's need to be portable.
I don't think the distinction matters anymore? It's certainly a handheld, but I think these are the same devices, especially since Switch docks to the TV.
ps2 was an outlier. no other system has sold great after it's successor was on the market.

also, i doubt sony is all that worried about switch. a lot of it's momentum seems to have cooled, and ps4 is selling well as ever.

nintendo at this point is more supplemental to ps/xbox than direct competition imo. not the same experiences. all 3 are doing well.
PS1 also sold another 20 to 25M or so after the PS2 launched.
All 3 are doing well, but Switch and Playstation brands are "trading blows" for the top spot, and unlike the Wii, Switch can play modern games, and IF iterations are a thing, that could mean that perhaps Switch becomes the lead console, like 360 was for a good few years last gen. I think it's important for these companies to cycle through who is on top, the way they act when there is a clear winner is never good. Nintendo's dominance led to the N64 and all the publisher fall out shows how bad it was. XB1's announcement wasn't great to say the least, and they weren't even in a clear winner position. PS3 was horrible and Wii U tone deaf. Sony is also sliding a bit this year with their stances on things like cross play and censorship. If Nintendo and Sony can trade the lead position in a close race, i think it might be better for the entire industry.

Problem with this thinking is that the press in the industry see Nintendo as the outsider, they know Sony and the Sony executives, they know Microsoft too, but Nintendo is just "doing their own thing in Japan" so who knows if it's even possible to change perception, I just was talking about the one thing Sony might worry about.
 

Jade1962

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
4,259
Switch has always been an indirect competitor for PS4 and XB1, indeed. Also, PS2 sold well after PS3 launch because PS3 early years numbers were terrible and PS2 expanded a lot in developing countries.



Switch was positioned as the Wii U successor in terms of price and lineup offering.

So when is the launch of the 3DS successor?

I don't think the distinction matters anymore? It's certainly a handheld, but I think these are the same devices, especially since Switch docks to the TV.

PS1 also sold another 20 to 25M or so after the PS2 launched.
All 3 are doing well, but Switch and Playstation brands are "trading blows" for the top spot, and unlike the Wii, Switch can play modern games, and IF iterations are a thing, that could mean that perhaps Switch becomes the lead console, like 360 was for a good few years last gen. I think it's important for these companies to cycle through who is on top, the way they act when there is a clear winner is never good. Nintendo's dominance led to the N64 and all the publisher fall out shows how bad it was. XB1's announcement wasn't great to say the least, and they weren't even in a clear winner position. PS3 was horrible and Wii U tone deaf. Sony is also sliding a bit this year with their stances on things like cross play and censorship. If Nintendo and Sony can trade the lead position in a close race, i think it might be better for the entire industry.

Problem with this thinking is that the press in the industry see Nintendo as the outsider, they know Sony and the Sony executives, they know Microsoft too, but Nintendo is just "doing their own thing in Japan" so who knows if it's even possible to change perception, I just was talking about the one thing Sony might worry about.

The Wii at least got COD. No one is saying Ps4 sales will come to a complete halt but an attractive Ps5 offering will limits its tail. Ps2's tail was unusual due to the high cost of Ps3 and X360 and the fact that it was a cheap way to play the likes of guitar hero and rock band.

The rest of your post just proves you aren't making predictions based on the market and just writing what you want to happen. The relationship between the 360 and Ps3 as far as lead console isn't comparable to the relationship between a potential switch pro and ps5. For that to happen either sony and nintendo would have to both make hybrids or both make consoles. Or nvidia could defy physics or sony pull a wii and release a ps4 with motion controls/vr and call it Ps5 .
 
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jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,985
I'd say Switch has more in common with the 3DS/handheld than the Wii U. It's a design is informed by it's need to be portable.

Exactly.

It's amazing how the main feature of the Switch is either accepted or dismissed depending on the topic.

Guess that's also part of the hybrid design.

And the discussion about PS4 vs Switch has been entertaining to read, lol.

By the time the Switch really gets on a roll, next gen Xbox and PS will be launching.
 
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Kazuma Kiryu

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,537
Wtf is going on ITT? PS5 will fail because Sony are launching a handheld, & the games on NSW & PS4XB are all the same? Dafuq am I reading this nonsense for?

I'm putting money on 'perception' becoming the new 'narrative' when it comes to chronic overuse.

[NSW] 1400K
[PS4] 1700K
[XB1] 1400K

Next-gen transitions always bring concern with them.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
The Wii at least got COD. No one is saying Ps4 sales will come to a complete halt but an attractive Ps5 offering will limits its tail. Ps2's tail was unusual due to the high cost of Ps3 and X360 and the fact that it was a cheap way to play the likes of guitar hero and rock band.

The rest of your post just proves you aren't making predictions based on the market and just writing what you want to happen. The relationship between the 360 and Ps3 as far as lead console isn't comparable to the relationship between a potential switch pro and ps5. For that to happen either sony and nintendo would have to both make hybrids or both make consoles. Or nvidia could defy physics or sony pull a wii and release a ps4 with motion controls/vr and call it Ps5 .
1. Ignored that PS1 sold another 20-25 Million after PS2 launched. Small point really, but PS4 to PS5 is closer to PS1 to PS2 as we expect backwards compatibility.
2. With the launch of next gen consoles in 2020, I was not talking about the Switch "Pro" but a following iteration, 3 years later in 2022. If Nintendo is looking to target 1080p docked and 720p portable, there is little reason why Nintendo can't release a Switch '3' in 2022 with ~2.5TFLOPs of performance when docked, and run at ~1TFLOPs when portable, this relationship is capable with a console that is ~10-12TFLOPs targeting 4K.

Switch is a game console, whether you want to call it a home or portable console, doesn't change that. As for 'what I want to happen' I want these platforms to compete with each other.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,725
Italy
So when is the launch of the 3DS successor?

Doesn't matter.

When Switch launched, 3DS had still support from Nintendo and related companies (like, a new Pokémon game). The price point is not handheld-like and indeed it costs roughly as Wii U back then. Initial games were Zelda (the one you typically find on home consoles) and 1, 2 Switch, a family party game à la Wii Party.

Nintendo positioned the platform more as a home console rather than an handheld console---which doesn't mean the handheld component wasn't important. In fact, it was.
 

Omnistalgic

self-requested temp ban
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,973
NJ
What the fook are you guys even talking about? Switch compliments PS4, we have logic and actual NPD chimes to back it up. Weird discussion...
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
What the fook are you guys even talking about? Switch compliments PS4, we have logic and actual NPD chimes to back it up. Weird discussion...

I don't think z0m3ie is disputing that, he's just talking about Sony's "perception" about being the market leader.

But A) I still have no idea what that has to do with not issuing black Friday PR and B) I don't think a change in perception would really mean anything in the long run anyway, unless there's a change in reality too.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
How does the perception issue impact the ultimate end point of all similar trains of discussion... "Wii was or was not a fad"?
 

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,621
By the time the Switch really gets on a roll, next gen Xbox and PS will be launching.
Switch will nearly be 4 years old by that point- that's getting out of peak years for most consoles, not heading into them.

Hell, the Wii was entering into its last relevant holiday of releases by that point.
 

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
People's own personal answer to that question is what's fueling a lot of the 'can they hit 20 million' discussion, I'd say.

The fascination with the 20 million goal is pretty legendary in regards to sales discussion on this forum and GAF. I don't think I've ever seen a forecast this talked about before. I think it's a combination of people hoping Nintendo does well, people hoping Nintendo doesn't do well and Nintendo's unwavering assurance they will hit it.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
I missed the thread because i had problems with the ERA update, fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu-


[PS4] 1500K
[NSW] 1300K
[XB1] 1100K
 

Astandahl

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,006
The fascination with the 20 million goal is pretty legendary in regards to sales discussion on this forum and GAF. I don't think I've ever seen a forecast this talked about before. I think it's a combination of people hoping Nintendo does well, people hoping Nintendo doesn't do well and Nintendo's unwavering assurance they will hit it.
To me it's the combination of stupidity and nothing else.
 

shark97

Banned
Nov 7, 2017
5,327
I don't think the distinction matters anymore? It's certainly a handheld, but I think these are the same devices, especially since Switch docks to the TV.

PS1 also sold another 20 to 25M or so after the PS2 launched.
All 3 are doing well, but Switch and Playstation brands are "trading blows" for the top spot, and unlike the Wii, Switch can play modern games, and IF iterations are a thing, that could mean that perhaps Switch becomes the lead console, like 360 was for a good few years last gen. I think it's important for these companies to cycle through who is on top, the way they act when there is a clear winner is never good. Nintendo's dominance led to the N64 and all the publisher fall out shows how bad it was. XB1's announcement wasn't great to say the least, and they weren't even in a clear winner position. PS3 was horrible and Wii U tone deaf. Sony is also sliding a bit this year with their stances on things like cross play and censorship. If Nintendo and Sony can trade the lead position in a close race, i think it might be better for the entire industry.

Problem with this thinking is that the press in the industry see Nintendo as the outsider, they know Sony and the Sony executives, they know Microsoft too, but Nintendo is just "doing their own thing in Japan" so who knows if it's even possible to change perception, I just was talking about the one thing Sony might worry about.


Yeah, I can agree to some extent, BUT, personally I play Destiny. Well it's not even on Switch, and if it was that would be by far the lowest fidelity experience of any. It would basically have to be a port of the 360 version which is terribly jaggy. Plus the Switch just does not have a lot of memory, good online/social systems, the list goes on beyond just hardware power of why Switch would not be well suited to a Destiny port.

But you could extend this to most hardcore games. Xbox or Twitch most played, Fifa, COD, Battlefield, Rainbow 6, Destiny, Red Dead, GTA, Fallout 76, NBA 2K...these are core definers and they're either not on Switch or it's the lowest fidelity experience. What Switch has in the positive is obviously the ability to go portable, but at home it's going to be a deficient core experience compared to PS/Xbox. Another thing is, Switch is struggling to keep up with base Xbox One/PS4 now, how much bigger will the gap get to PS5/Xbox 2? And if they continue portable, Nintendo simply will not be able to compete technically. There's no Switch 2 in sight, and if there was I dont see a lot of low hanging fruit currently to go a lot more powerful than a Tegra X1 in the mobile space, affordably, in a 299 device. Apple says their new chip is Xbox One base level (which might be debatable anyway), but Apple literally has the most money of any company in the world to throw at chip development, and this chip is also only in $1000 iPad and iPhone products.

Then at the end of the day we have that Nintendo is likely not welcoming to the COD's of the world on their platform. They want to sell a lot of hardware and then sell a lot of their first party software into that, they want to be the only game in town on their platform. Largely, I'd posit they dont even relish third party competition. This is nothing new.

But, if your point is "Sony is in great position so there's not much to be worried about, so they have to look to the periphery to find things they might even worry about", I get that.

Anyways looking at the thread it's NPD predictions so maybe wordy discussions like this aren't welcome? Not sure so I replied.