Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of October and November. Both months are 4 weeks long, but November is the 2nd biggest month of the year in terms of total sales and the biggest month when it comes to weekly average thanks to Black Friday week. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for November to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Notes
November is enormous. It's expected that every console will jump by around +200% (3x) or more from October.*
*3DS is an exception.
For the first time since 2007, Cyber Monday week is now in November tracking. That has been a "December Week" for a decade, so the sales potential for the end of November is high.
Below is a collection of known/extrapolated Black Friday week numbers from last generation.
Unfortunately, no more numbers were given during the 8th gen other than the Xbox One having the 2nd best Black Friday in Xbox history in 2015 (+22% from BF 2014 / +750K). The DS has once sold ~1M units during Black Friday 2009 and the Gameboy Advance did around that (over a 10 day period) in 2002.
Switch also was announced to have surpassed the Wii's best Thursday-Monday 5 day period which covers Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and that Switch was up +115% from that same period in 2017.
Xbox
Xbox loves the holiday season. Continually sells massive numbers in November, usually over 4 times as much as October.
Xbox One has had both the largest and lowest rises for the Xbox brand since 2012. A massive +970% in 2017, nearly 1000%, thanks to the launch of the Xbox One X with >430K sold, accompanied by Call of Duty WW2 and Star Wars Battlefront 2 (Comparing One S sales in November to October, that's a rise of +636% which is still bigger than the 2014 rise) and +206% in 2016, following a big October thanks to Gears of War 4 and Battlefield 1 and a disappointing November software lineup.
2018 is not looking like a great month on paper. The most important part of the month, the price, is pretty much an equal value to 2017's offerings. To put some context why that matters I'm going to post Xbox 360 and PS3 2011 November sales and their Black Friday deals along with their 2012 sales.
Even with 2012 matching and technically beating 2011 on offers, both consoles consoles dropped by double digits. This can easily be seen by comparing the 360's Black Friday sales for both years.
Besides price, 2018 does not have good software launches that sell consoles. The only two major launches are Fallout 76 and Battlefield V, both of which have not had the best reception or sales going by other regions and price promotions just after launch. 2016 had a better November with just Call of Duty Infinite Warfare and Modern Warfare Remastered, and both the PS4 and XB1 were down from 2015 because of that offering.
The only saving grace for the month is Cyber Monday, but that isn't going to magically boost systems up YOY if the first two weeks of the month are dreadful. Remember, the Xbox One had an October weekly average of 53,000 with the launches of Black Ops 4 and Red Dead Redemption 2, the two biggest launches of the year. Will the first 2 weeks of November really outperform that thanks to Fallout 76, which launched week 2?
PlayStation
PlayStation tends to do well throughout the year, so sometimes the boost in November isn't as big as Xbox. However, now that the PS4 is the market leader and picked up the marketing/bundle rights to titles such as Call of Duty, sales in November have improved over the 7th gen.
The PS4 had an average 2014 increase with +180% but then in 2015 they had the largest games bundled with the PS4 and a $50 price drop from October, leading to the largest rise since 2011 except for the Xbox One increase in 2014 with +460%. 2016 had the launch of the PS4 Pro which helped increase sales +373%. 2017 had the first $199 deal for the system and that along with COD WW2 and Battlefront 2 pushed units by +701%.
As pointed out in the Xbox section, even though the Black Friday deals are "better", the price hasn't changed from 2017. That isn't too big of a deal for PS4 this year as it seems the bundle sold but the question is then "Did Sony ship more than last year?".
Something that will affect PS4 is the software comparison to 2017. PS4 had the COD WW2 limited bundle along with two Battlefront 2 bundles. 2018 has no equivalent before Black Friday week, and they launched a standard Black Ops 4 bundle after Cyber Monday. Fallout 76 and Battlefield V are pretty weak compared to the 2017 and even 2016 offerings.
Like everyone else this year, Cyber Monday is the only week that can help a sales comparison to last year.
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a rise of +205% with the smallest rise being +64% (2013) and the largest rise being +352% (2016).
Switch looks to be a big winner for November given 2017 sales. Nothing notable launched that month, no special Black Friday deals, and it still sold an incredible amount. PS4 sold 831K in 2014 with big names like Call of Duty, GTA, etc., and a big GTA + Last of Us BF bundle. With Pokemon and an actual bundle with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe at $299 in addition with Nintendo's PR on Black Friday sales, Switch is going to sell over 1M this month.
Recap
November is the second biggest month of the year so everyone will see big boosts.
The biggest November ever recorded in the 7th gen was the Wii with 2,040,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 1,688,000 in 2011.
The biggest November ever recorded in the 8th gen was the PS4 with 1,690,000 in 2017. Second biggest? PS4 again with 1,539,000 in 2015.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 October: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Xbox 360 November: 1.259M / 4 = 314,750
Weekly average +366%
PS3 October: 170K / 4 = 42,500
PS3 November: 762K / 4 = 190,500
Weekly average +348%
3DS October: 245K / 4 = 61,250
3DS November: 540K / 4 = 135,000
Weekly average +120%
Notable Events in November
Xbox 360
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$149 4GB / $199 250GB Bundles / $199 4GB Kinect Bundle]
Call of Duty: Black Ops II [2 weeks] [4.53M]
Halo 4 [3 weeks] [3.2M]
Assassin's Creed III [4 weeks]
PS3
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 250GB Bundle]
Call of Duty: Black Ops II [2 weeks] [2.87m]
Assassin's Creed III [4 weeks]
3DS
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 October: 166K / 4 = 41,500
Xbox 360 November: 647K / 4 = 161,750
Weekly average +290%
PS3 October: 119K / 4 = 29,750
PS3 November: 407K / 4 = 101,750
Weekly average +242%
3DS October: 452K / 4 = 113,000
3DS November: 741K / 4 = 185,250
Weekly average +64%
Notable Events in November
Xbox 360
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$99 4GB / $189 250GB Bundles / $189 4GB Kinect Bundle]
Call of Duty: Ghosts [4 weeks] [>3.3M]
PS3
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$149 12GB Bundle / $199 250GB Bundles]
Call of Duty: Ghosts [4 weeks] [>1.8M]
3DS
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals
The Legend of Zelda: A Link between Worlds Special Themed Gold + Black XL bundle $219 [2 weeks] [125K]
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds [2 weeks] [280K]
Code:
2014
Xbox One October: 168K / 4 = 42,000
Xbox One November: 1.231M / 4 = 307,750
Weekly average +632%
PS4 October: 297K / 4 = 74,250
PS4 November: 831K / 4 = 207,750
Weekly average +180%
3DS October: 138K / 4 = 34,500
3DS November: 515K / 4 = 128,750
Weekly average +273%
Xbox 360 October: 63K / 4 = 15,750
Xbox 360 November: 306K / 4 = 76,500
Weekly average +386%
PS3 October: 35K / 4 = 8,750
PS3 November: 89K / 4 = 22,250
Weekly average +154%
Notable Events In November
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$329 500GB Bundles]
Assassin's Creed: Unity 500GB bundle $349 [4 weeks] [<829K]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare 1TB bundle $499 [4 weeks] [200K]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<1.195M]
Halo MCC [3 weeks] [>660K]
Grand Theft Auto V [2 weeks] [>517K]
Far Cry 4 [2 weeks] [214K]
Dragon Age Inquisition [2 weeks] [<192K]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$399 500GB Bundle]
GTAV + The Last of Us 500GB Bundle $399 [1 week] [340K]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<1.110M]
Grand Theft Auto V [2 weeks] [>583K]
Far Cry 4 [2 weeks] [281K]
Dragon Age Inquisition [2 weeks] [<258K]
3DS
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals
Crystal Blue 2DS $99 [2 weeks]
Crystal Red 2DS $99 [2 weeks]
Persona Q Special Themed Black XL bundle $199 [Gamestop] [1 week]
Pokémon Alpha Sapphire [2 weeks]
Pokémon Omega Ruby [2 weeks]
[Total = 1.5M]
Xbox 360
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$99 4GB / $179 4GB Kinect Bundle / $199 500GB Bundle]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<1.238M]
Far Cry 4 [2 weeks] [~120K]
PS3
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$249 500GB Bundles]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<725.7K]
Code:
2015
Xbox One October: 303K / 4 = 75,750
Xbox One November: 1.296M / 4 = 324,000
Weekly average +327%
PS4 October: 275K / 4 = 68,750
PS4 November: 1.539M / 4 = 384,750
Weekly average +460%
3DS October: 110K / 4 = 27,500
3DS November: 350K / 4 = 87,500
Weekly average +218%
Notable Events in November
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$299 500GB Bundles / $349 1TB Bundles]
Gears of War UE 500GB White bundle $349 [Walmart] [4 weeks]
Fallout 4 1TB Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [158K]
Tomb Raider 1TB Bundle $399 [Best Buy + MS Store] [4 weeks]
Xbox One Elite Bundle $499 [Gamestop + MS Store] [4 weeks]
Call of Duty Black Ops 3 [4 weeks] [1.948M]
Fallout 4 [3 weeks] [<1.116M]
Star Wars Battlefront [2 weeks] [843K]
Rise of Tomb Raider [3 weeks] [176K]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$299 500GB Bundles]
Star Wars Battlefront 500GB Bundle $349 / Limited Bundle $399 [2 weeks] [375K]
Black Ops 3 1TB Bundle $429 [4 weeks] [251K]
Call of Duty Black Ops 3 [4 weeks] [1.902M]
Fallout 4 [3 weeks] [<1.264M]
Star Wars Battlefront [2 weeks] [883K]
3DS
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [3DS XL Bundle $129 / $179 New 3DS XL]
Code:
2016
Xbox One October: 303K / 4 = 82,250
Xbox One November: 1.007M / 4 = 251,750
Weekly average +206%
PS4 October: 235K / 4 = 58,750
PS4 November: 1.112M / 4 = 278,000
Weekly average +373%
3DS October: 123K / 4 = 30,750
3DS November: 556K / 4 = 139,000
Weekly average +352%
Notable Events in November
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$249 500GB Bundles / $299 1TB Bundles]
Free game with any Xbox One purchased [9 days: November 4 - November 12]
Xbox One S Battlefield 1 500GB Stormy Grey Limited bundle $299 [Wal-Mart/MS Store] [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Gears of War 4 500GB Deep Blue Limited bundle $299 [Gamestop/MS Store] [4 weeks]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare [4 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$249 500GB Bundles]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare free with every PS4 [2 days: November 4 - November 5]
PS4 Pro 1TB $399 [3 weeks] [~260K]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare [4 weeks]
3DS
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [2DS $79 / New 3DS Bundle $99]
Pokémon Sun [2 weeks]
Pokémon Moon [2 weeks]
Code:
2017
Switch October: 290K / 4 = 72,500
Switch November: 775K / 4 = 193,750
Weekly average +167%
Xbox One October: 129K / 4 = 32,250
Xbox One November: 1.38M / 4 = 345,000
Weekly average +970%
PS4 October: 211K / 4 = 52,750
PS4 November: 1.69M / 4 = 422,500
Weekly average +701%
Notable Events in November
Switch
Increased supply for the holidays / Black Friday
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$189 500GB / $229 500GB Bundles / $299 1TB Bundles]
500GB Bundles $249 w/ free game Nov 13 - Nov 18 [1 week]
Xbox One X 1TB $499 [3 weeks] [~430K]
Call of Duty WWII [4 weeks]
Star Wars Battlefront II [2 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 1TB]
Call of Duty WWII Camo 1TB Bundle $299 [4 weeks]
Star Wars Battlefront II 1TB Bundle $299 [2 weeks]
PS4 Pro Star Wars Battlefront II 1TB Limited Bundle $449 [2 weeks]
Call of Duty WWII [4 weeks]
Star Wars Battlefront II [2 weeks]
Code:
2018 October Weekly Averages
PS4: 342K / 4 = 85,500
Switch: 255K / 4 = 63,750
Xbox One: 212K / 4 = 53,000
Notable Events in November
Switch
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals / [$299 Bundle]
*NEW* Cyber Monday
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 1TB Bundle / $229 1TB Bundles / $399 One X / $429 One X Bundles]
*NEW* Cyber Monday
Xbox One S Battlefield V 1TB Bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Xbox One X Battlefield V 1TB Bundle $499 [3 weeks]
Xbox One X Battlefield V 1TB Gold Rush Bundle $499 [Best Buy] [3 weeks]
Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundle $499 [3 weeks]
Fallout 76 [3 weeks]
Battlefield V [2 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 1TB Bundle]
PS4 Slim Spider-Man 1TB Bundle $199 [2 weeks] * Black Friday Bundle
PS4 Slim Call of Duty Black Ops 4 1TB Bundle $299 [1 week]
*NEW* Cyber Monday
Fallout 76 [3 weeks]
Battlefield V [2 weeks]Notes
November is enormous. It's expected that every console will jump by around +200% (3x) or more from October.*
*3DS is an exception.
For the first time since 2007, Cyber Monday week is now in November tracking. That has been a "December Week" for a decade, so the sales potential for the end of November is high.
Below is a collection of known/extrapolated Black Friday week numbers from last generation.
Code:
Sales / % of November Sales
Xbox 360
2005: 326,000 (Launch)
2007: 310,000 / 40%
2008: 388,000 / 46%
2011: 960,000 / 57%
2012: 750,000 / 60%
PS3
2007: ~155,000 / ~33% (Xbox claims 360:PS3 was 2:1)
2008: ~129,000 / ~34% (Xbox claims 360:PS3 was 3:1)
2009: 440,000 / 62%
2012: 525,000 / 69%
Wii
2006: 476,000 (Launch)
2007: 350,000 / 36%
2008: 800,000 / 39%
2009: 550,000 / 44%
2010: 600,000 / 47%
2011: +500,000 / +58% (500K just on Black Friday, whole week unknown)
2012: 300,000 / 71%
3DS
2012: 250,000 / 46%Unfortunately, no more numbers were given during the 8th gen other than the Xbox One having the 2nd best Black Friday in Xbox history in 2015 (+22% from BF 2014 / +750K). The DS has once sold ~1M units during Black Friday 2009 and the Gameboy Advance did around that (over a 10 day period) in 2002.
Switch also was announced to have surpassed the Wii's best Thursday-Monday 5 day period which covers Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and that Switch was up +115% from that same period in 2017.
Xbox
Xbox loves the holiday season. Continually sells massive numbers in November, usually over 4 times as much as October.
Xbox One has had both the largest and lowest rises for the Xbox brand since 2012. A massive +970% in 2017, nearly 1000%, thanks to the launch of the Xbox One X with >430K sold, accompanied by Call of Duty WW2 and Star Wars Battlefront 2 (Comparing One S sales in November to October, that's a rise of +636% which is still bigger than the 2014 rise) and +206% in 2016, following a big October thanks to Gears of War 4 and Battlefield 1 and a disappointing November software lineup.
2018 is not looking like a great month on paper. The most important part of the month, the price, is pretty much an equal value to 2017's offerings. To put some context why that matters I'm going to post Xbox 360 and PS3 2011 November sales and their Black Friday deals along with their 2012 sales.
Code:
Xbox 360 November 2011: 1.688M / 4 = 422,000
Xbox 360 November 2012: 1.259M / 4 = 314,750
Xbox 360 2011
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$149 4GB / $199 4GB Kinect Bundle]
Xbox 360 2012
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$149 4GB / $199 250GB Bundles / $199 4GB Kinect Bundle]
PS3 November 2011: 894K / 4 = 223,500
PS3 November 2012: 762K / 4 = 190,500
PS3 2011
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 160GB Bundle]
PS3 2012
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 250GB Bundle]Even with 2012 matching and technically beating 2011 on offers, both consoles consoles dropped by double digits. This can easily be seen by comparing the 360's Black Friday sales for both years.
Besides price, 2018 does not have good software launches that sell consoles. The only two major launches are Fallout 76 and Battlefield V, both of which have not had the best reception or sales going by other regions and price promotions just after launch. 2016 had a better November with just Call of Duty Infinite Warfare and Modern Warfare Remastered, and both the PS4 and XB1 were down from 2015 because of that offering.
The only saving grace for the month is Cyber Monday, but that isn't going to magically boost systems up YOY if the first two weeks of the month are dreadful. Remember, the Xbox One had an October weekly average of 53,000 with the launches of Black Ops 4 and Red Dead Redemption 2, the two biggest launches of the year. Will the first 2 weeks of November really outperform that thanks to Fallout 76, which launched week 2?
PlayStation
PlayStation tends to do well throughout the year, so sometimes the boost in November isn't as big as Xbox. However, now that the PS4 is the market leader and picked up the marketing/bundle rights to titles such as Call of Duty, sales in November have improved over the 7th gen.
The PS4 had an average 2014 increase with +180% but then in 2015 they had the largest games bundled with the PS4 and a $50 price drop from October, leading to the largest rise since 2011 except for the Xbox One increase in 2014 with +460%. 2016 had the launch of the PS4 Pro which helped increase sales +373%. 2017 had the first $199 deal for the system and that along with COD WW2 and Battlefront 2 pushed units by +701%.
As pointed out in the Xbox section, even though the Black Friday deals are "better", the price hasn't changed from 2017. That isn't too big of a deal for PS4 this year as it seems the bundle sold but the question is then "Did Sony ship more than last year?".
Something that will affect PS4 is the software comparison to 2017. PS4 had the COD WW2 limited bundle along with two Battlefront 2 bundles. 2018 has no equivalent before Black Friday week, and they launched a standard Black Ops 4 bundle after Cyber Monday. Fallout 76 and Battlefield V are pretty weak compared to the 2017 and even 2016 offerings.
Like everyone else this year, Cyber Monday is the only week that can help a sales comparison to last year.
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a rise of +205% with the smallest rise being +64% (2013) and the largest rise being +352% (2016).
Switch looks to be a big winner for November given 2017 sales. Nothing notable launched that month, no special Black Friday deals, and it still sold an incredible amount. PS4 sold 831K in 2014 with big names like Call of Duty, GTA, etc., and a big GTA + Last of Us BF bundle. With Pokemon and an actual bundle with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe at $299 in addition with Nintendo's PR on Black Friday sales, Switch is going to sell over 1M this month.
Recap
November is the second biggest month of the year so everyone will see big boosts.
The biggest November ever recorded in the 7th gen was the Wii with 2,040,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 1,688,000 in 2011.
The biggest November ever recorded in the 8th gen was the PS4 with 1,690,000 in 2017. Second biggest? PS4 again with 1,539,000 in 2015.
