Time for another update on US numbers I figured:
3/11: ????? 3/04: 68637 2/25: 78191
3/10: 60658 3/03: 67216 2/24: 75803
3/09: 55946 3/02: 57603 2/23: 73800
3/08: 45368 3/01: 55198 2/22: 59151
3/07: 44878 2/28: 53632 2/21: 58980
3/06: 58934 2/27: 65654 2/20: 71757
3/05: 69232 2/26: 81270 2/19: 84582
Too early to tell for sure where we'll come out today, but we're currently riding a 13 day streak of cases being down week over week and unless there's a HUGE explosion in what's left to report today, I feel good about us pushing that to 14 today.
While cases continue to drop at a fairly steady rate, the death rate has actually plummeted this week so far and that's generally a more reliable metric. Makes you wonder if the vaccine really is starting to have a big impact there considering something like 60% of those 65 and older are now vaccinated.
3/11: ???? 3/04: 2047 2/25: 2459
3/10: 1612 3/03: 2369 2/24: 2526
3/09: 1712 3/02: 2088 2/23: 2435
3/08: 0829 3/01: 1483 2/22: 1377
3/07: 0748 2/28: 1288 2/21: 1239
3/06: 1558 2/27: 1554 2/20: 1924
3/05: 1836 2/26: 2271 2/19: 2645
Not quite as nice of a week over week downward trend every day, as there are a few days over the last couple weeks we were up slightly week over week, but the overall trend is sloping down quickly. Today looks to continue that as we should come in well under the 2047 from a week ago. I expect it to be pretty in line with yesterday's numbers.
Positivity and testing aren't quite as rosy a picture this week, but they aren't terrible. 19 states have had testing down at least 5% this week, while only 11 have had it up at least 5%. That's not ideal but it could just be that less people are getting sick. As we have less people get seriously sick we are going to see less get tested. Positivity rates would seem to support that theory as 16 states have their positivity rate down at least 1% this week, while only 5 states have positivity rate up at least 1% during that time. That 5 that are up is up from only 4 that were up last week though, so while most areas are seemingly trending in the right direction, there are a few areas that may not be. Still, as long as significantly more areas than not are heading in the right direction the overall numbers will likely continue to improve. Its also helpful to know that 4 of the 5 states where positivity was up are somewhat smaller states where the impact on overall recovery should be fairly muted (Utah, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Kentucky who are 24th, 25th, 27th, and 43rd in total cases so none having a massive impact) with the only exception being New Jersey.
Positive Cases:
3/18: ????? 3/11: 62740 3/04: 68766 2/25: 78862
3/17: 62794 3/10: 61415 3/03: 67548 2/24: 76362
3/16: 53251 3/09: 55880 3/02: 57902 2/23: 74123
3/15: 46391 3/08: 45483 3/01: 54760 2/22: 59087
3/14: 43091 3/07: 45262 2/28: 54125 2/21: 59057
3/13: 52614 3/06: 59669 2/27: 65667 2/20: 72347
3/12: 68288 3/05: 69439 2/26: 81266 2/19: 84838
Deaths:
3/18: ???? 3/11: 1605 3/04: 2047 2/25: 2459
3/17: 1289 3/10: 1668 3/03: 2370 2/24: 2527
3/16: 1248 3/09: 1727 3/02: 2089 2/23: 2436
3/15: 0825 3/08: 0831 3/01: 1483 2/22: 1377
3/14: 0661 3/07: 0749 2/28: 1288 2/21: 1241
3/13: 1068 3/06: 1558 2/27: 1554 2/20: 1924
3/12: 1516 3/05: 1838 2/26: 2271 2/19: 2647
I've gotten in the habit of doing a US update each week so I guess I'll continue. This was not a great week for cases. 2 of the last 3 days we've been up week over week. We still are down week over week mind you in total because of some very good days earlier in the week and because the days that were up were only up a little, but its definitely not a good sign. In the last 4 days, even the 2 days we were down week over week we were barely down. Its not enough yet to say we're climbing overall, but we've likely reached a point we're we've either leveled off or if we're still dropping it is only barely. Places easing restrictions in this moment seems like an awful idea. Today's numbers aren't fully in yet either, but they aren't looking great at the moment.
In slightly better news, deaths have continued to drop strongly. Mind you deaths trail cases by several weeks so it isn't quite as good as you would want, but the drop in death rate continues to be faster than the drop in cases even when you account for that. This is likely the impact of the vaccine. Huge amounts of the vulnerable population are now vaccinated and more are getting vaccinated every day. I don't think its absurd to think deaths can continue to decline even if cases start to go up some as long as cases don't spike in a huge way. They'll obviously decline more however if we can get cases headed in the right direction again.
Its also possible this could just be a blip, some of the evidence around the edges suggests that it might be, though its a bit mixed. Testing is up at least 5% in only 10 states this week. It is down at least 5% in 23 states. That's actually a huge shift from even a few days ago with a number of states seeing significant dips over just the last couple of days. And while less testing doesn't always mean less COVID, at this point there does seem to be some correlation. People know what to look for at this point and tests are readily available. The main reason we see a big change in testing is because more or less people are getting sick or there's some sort of event that people want to be tested before. Spring break happened over this period so it could be the event, which could just have for a minute have driven testing up which drove more positives. That would make sense that in the last few days, when most of the spring break people should be back home, we're again seeing a solid drop in that way. A number of states however are seeing positivity rate rise so while spring break testing may have driven numbers up some, its likely not the only reason things don't look so rosy.
