Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

Joni · May 22, 2020

True Savior said:
It's really fucking weird how the conversation always goes back to sweden and/or the usa (and now brazil lately) but the countries with more cases per million or deaths per million are :
spain > ireland > usa > belgium > italy > uk > switzerland > sweden
belgium > spain > italy > uk > france > sweden > netherlands > ireland > usa

brazil isn't even showing up in top 25 in any of the metrics and both sweden or usa are not the worst in any metric.

Because those countries are following all common guidelines, opening really slow,... Admitting that they have issues but taking care of them. They are no longer news. Brazil is one of the four countries responsible for most new cases. And they still don't admit the issue.

Deleted member 9932 · May 22, 2020

NHale said:
Completely agree. This is the perfect example:

I know very well what I posted before. I didn't do any positive vs negative comparison at all, actually that post is condemning those analysis. I posted the data we have to justify why it's erroneous to single out the discussion in a couple of countries.

KingSnake said:
Which one are you referring right now?

Like I said initially, a lot of what the media runs and the focus on usa and sweden mostly.

KingSnake · May 22, 2020

True Savior said:
Like I said initially, a lot of what the media runs and the focus on usa and sweden mostly.

Yes, because USA is still very much in the middle of the infection timeline (even if past the peak) and talks about re-opening and Sweden is the outlier both in terms of policies (although not completely) and infections/deaths when compared to other similar countries on the same timeline. And Sweden is still also quite high on their curve. And as Joni said some countries own their mistakes and some don't.

So what about Sweden and/or USA triggered your reaction on the last page? Is it the Nordic countries chart?

Xenogears_X · May 22, 2020

Massachusetts.... of course we are one of the last states to open. I wonder why it's OK for hair salons to open but you can't get a massage or a wax until the next phase which is at best going to be in mid-June?

Vitet · May 22, 2020

True Savior said:
It's really fucking weird how the conversation always goes back to sweden and/or the usa (and now brazil lately) but the countries with more cases per million or deaths per million are :
spain > ireland > usa > belgium > italy > uk > switzerland > sweden
belgium > spain > italy > uk > france > sweden > netherlands > ireland > usa

brazil isn't even showing up in top 25 in any of the metrics and both sweden or usa are not the worst in any metric.

We can find metrics where they are on top. Look!

Kyougar · May 22, 2020

True Savior said:
It's really fucking weird how the conversation always goes back to sweden and/or the usa (and now brazil lately) but the countries with more cases per million or deaths per million are :
spain > ireland > usa > belgium > italy > uk > switzerland > sweden
belgium > spain > italy > uk > france > sweden > netherlands > ireland > usa

brazil isn't even showing up in top 25 in any of the metrics and both sweden or usa are not the worst in any metric.

were do you get the numbers from?

Deaths per 100.000 per Morgenpost:

Belgium: 80
Spain: 59
UK: 54
Italy: 54
France: 42
Sweden: 37
Netherlands: 33
Ireland: 32
USA: 29
Switzerland: 22
Germany: 10
Denmark: 10
Brazil: 9
Austria: 7
Finland: 6
Norway: 4
Russia: 2

So Sweden is fucking high, more so in comparison with countries who are either culturally close or close in population.

Kubuh · May 22, 2020

Kyougar said:
were do you get the numbers from?

Deaths per 100.000 per Morgenpost:

Belgium: 80
Spain: 59
UK: 54
Italy: 54
France: 42
Sweden: 37
Netherlands: 33
Ireland: 32
USA: 29
Switzerland: 22
Germany: 10
Denmark: 10
Brazil: 9
Austria: 7
Finland: 6
Norway: 4
Russia: 2

So Sweden is fucking high, more so in comparison with countries who are either culturally close or close in population.

Worth noting that Sweden, Belgium and Switzerland appear to be the best at catching all the deaths in Europe, Netherlands in particular appears to have missed almost half the deaths from the official reporting.
Doesn't make their numbers look better of course, just means that the other countries are even worse sadly.

The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)

Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.

www.nytimes.com

Deleted member 9932 · May 22, 2020

Kyougar said:
were do you get the numbers from?

worldmeter.
Yes, sweden is high, that's exactly what I have in my post.

True Savior said:
spain > ireland > usa > belgium > italy > uk > switzerland > sweden
belgium > spain > italy > uk > france > sweden > netherlands > ireland > usa

Kyougar · May 22, 2020

True Savior said:
worldmeter.
Yes, sweden is high, that's exactly what I have in my post.

Sorry, only catched Sweden in the first row, thought the second row was a continuation.

Kyrios · May 22, 2020

Just saw on the news this morning that Trump said that there won't be any closings in the US when the second wave hits in the Fall.

Thank god it's not up to him but man...

DrROBschiz · May 22, 2020

Kyrios said:
Just saw on the news this morning that Trump said that there won't be any closings in the US when the second wave hits in the Fall.

Thank god it's not up to him but man...

Makes the most sense for States to manage on a needs basis anyways so the status quo hasn't changed but his unwillingness to lead and offer federal support where its needed is fucking dark

We cannot get rid of this asshole fast enough.

Kyrios · May 22, 2020

DrROBschiz said:
Makes the most sense for States to manage on a needs basis anyways so the status quo hasn't changed but his unwillingness to lead and offer federal support where its needed is fucking dark

We cannot get rid of this asshole fast enough.

Yeah that's what's bothering me is how hard Trump is trying to sweep this under the rug. And to be fair it's not like he ever officially closed down the country nationwide anyway the first time.

Just so frustrating having the absolute worst administration for this situation.

RocknRola · May 22, 2020

Portugal:

30200 confirmed cases.
+ 288 since yesterday. 1.0% growth.
1289 deaths.
+ 12 since yesterday.
7590 recoveries.
+ 1138 since yesterday.

576 people hospitalised.
- 32 since yesterday.
84 in the ICU.
- 8 since yesterday.

----

The number of cases has remained fairly stable during this month (in which we're already onto the 2nd phase of reopening up the the country) so that's positive considering the circumstances. Hopefully we'll see it go further down soon enough. Everything else seems to be on a positive, if slow, path too.

Marossi · May 22, 2020

Well, I guess it's time for someone to track daily deaths and cases confirmed in Brazil, because we have sadly broken the 1k deaths per day as of yesterday.
Using information by the official Brazil's Ministry of Health given here: https://covid.saude.gov.br/

Bulletin Brazil for 5/21/2020

+18508 new cases (310087 total)
+1188 deaths (20047 total)

125960 total recoveries (41%)
164080 total in treatment (53%)

Some states don't share daily recoveries so that metric isn't really useful here.

Shokunin · May 22, 2020

Kyrios said:
Yeah that's what's bothering me is how hard Trump is trying to sweep this under the rug. And to be fair it's not like he ever officially closed down the country nationwide anyway the first time.

Just so frustrating having the absolute worst administration for this situation.

He's screwed.

If he shuts anything down, his base will go ape shit and be pissed at him. If he doesn't shut anything down, more people get sick and die which will get moderates/undecideds pissed.

He's gambling that it won't be that bad during the second wave (and if it is he can possibly pass blame downward to local governments). EVERYONE knows it's gonna be bad - all polls show it. Virus has no bias.

Stay safe, wait it out and vote.

OmegaNeon · May 22, 2020

I finally got the chance to see some relatives again as we social distanced, where I live is in yellow now.

RocknRola · May 22, 2020

Hearing this on the news as I type, but apparently roughly 1/3 of the deaths in Brazil has been from people UNDER 60 years old. Which is troublesome.

Add that to the lack of reporting in many of it's cities due to a lack of resources (dead people not having any determined cause of death) as well as Bolsonaro and his crew refusing to actually do anything about it and the real picture probably is much, much, bleaker than what the numbers say.

jelly · May 22, 2020

It's the G7 next month and America is hosting. Not the place you want to go.

Kyrios · May 22, 2020

StrikeVillain said:
He's screwed.

If he shuts anything down, his base will go ape shit and be pissed at him. If he doesn't shut anything down, more people get sick and die which will get moderates/undecideds pissed.

He's gambling that it won't be that bad during the second wave (and if it is he can possibly pass blame downward to local governments). EVERYONE knows it's gonna be bad - all polls show it. Virus has no bias.

Stay safe, wait it out and vote.

Great points, absolutely 100% agree.

chromatic9 · May 22, 2020

RocknRola said:
Hearing this on the news as I type, but apparently roughly 1/3 of the deaths in Brazil has been from people UNDER 60 years old. Which is troublesome.

Add that to the lack of reporting in many of it's cities due to a lack of resources (dead people not having any determined cause of death) as well as Bolsonaro and his crew refusing to actually do anything about it and the real picture probably is much, much, bleaker than what the numbers say.

Very worrying that a third are under 60 if true.

As we've seen nearly everywhere the true picture has been much worse and I sadly suspect Brazil might be at the fulcrum. The brakes need to be put but it seems some in Brazil think it would be more devastating.

RocknRola · May 22, 2020

chromatic9 said:
Very worrying that a third are under 60 if true.

As we've seen nearly everywhere the true picture has been much worse and I sadly suspect Brazil might be at the fulcrum. The brakes need to be put but it seems some in Brazil think it would be more devastating.

Apparently it came from the new Health Minister itself:

~~https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/coronavirus/2020-05-01-Ministerio-da-Saude-brasileiro-revela-que-30-dos-mortos-por-Covid-19-no-pais-tinha-menos-de-60-anos~~ (in Portuguese)

Also it's 30%. I said 1/3, but it's more accurate to say close to 1/3. Still a fairly big number though.

Edit: Nevermind, that link is from May 1st. Very much out of date. Will update when they upload the news piece.

EDIT 2:

Found it:

O Brasil utrapassou as 20 mil mortes por Covid-19.

Click to expand...

Click to shrink...

O terceiro país do mundo com mais infecções é também aquele em que estão a morrer pessoas mais novas. Quase um terço das mortes é de pesssoas com menos de 60 anos.

Jair Bolsonaro diz que lamenta, mas que é a vida. Diz também que o pavor mata mais do que a doença.

https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/co...asil-utrapassou-as-20-mil-mortes-por-Covid-19
(still in Portuguese)

Muu · May 22, 2020

StrikeVillain said:
He's screwed.

If he shuts anything down, his base will go ape shit and be pissed at him. If he doesn't shut anything down, more people get sick and die which will get moderates/undecideds pissed.

He's gambling that it won't be that bad during the second wave (and if it is he can possibly pass blame downward to local governments). EVERYONE knows it's gonna be bad - all polls show it. Virus has no bias.

Stay safe, wait it out and vote.

How is this different when he's consistently fucked his base through his actions and that hasn't had an effect on his base turning on him?

Twstr709 · May 22, 2020

Zerokku · May 22, 2020

Muu said:
How is this different when he's consistently fucked his base through his actions and that hasn't had an effect on his base turning on him?

Because if the second wave escalates as bad as some of us think it might, it would *directly* affect those people a lot more than many of his other policies. People tend to notice when loved ones die.

Richiek · May 22, 2020

Zerokku said:
Because if the second wave escalates as bad as some of us think it might, it would *directly* affect those people a lot more than many of his other policies. People tend to notice when loved ones die.

I mean senior citizens are already the hardest hit by coronavirus and they are Trump's most loyal voter base, so it's already looking bad for him.

Serpens007 · May 22, 2020

Chile update:

+ 4.276 new positives in 24h -> 61.857 total (25.342 estimated recoveries, 35.885 active)
+ 41 New Deaths in 24 hours -> 630 total.
+ 850 connected to a ventilator, 159 in critical condition
+ 16.090 reported tests in 24h -> 442.093 total.

As of yesterday, death toll now surpases that of the 8.8 earthquake and Tsunami that strucked the country in 2010.

Scary looking at the total positives getting closer to the China numbers, but we are less than 18 million people

Vitet · May 22, 2020

Spain numbers:
+446 cases (only PCR) (total 233483, 0,19% increase)
+56 deaths (total 27996, 0,20% increase)

But the totals will go up to:
234824 cases (+1787)
28628 deaths (+688)
Because of revision of data from days before and not notified deaths until now. Mostly from Catalonia.

eonden · May 22, 2020

The problem of qualifying

Vitet said:
Spain numbers:
+446 cases (only PCR) (total 233483, 0,19% increase)
+56 deaths (total 27996, 0,20% increase)

But the totals will go up to:
234824 cases (+1787)
28628 deaths (+688)
Because of revision of data from days before and not notified deaths until now. Mostly from Catalonia.

Thats a fuckton of extra deaths.

Javier23 · May 22, 2020

Vitet said:
Spain numbers:
+446 cases (only PCR) (total 233483, 0,19% increase)
+56 deaths (total 27996, 0,20% increase)

But the totals will go up to:
234824 cases (+1787)
28628 deaths (+688)
Because of revision of data from days before and not notified deaths until now. Mostly from Catalonia.

What? That many deaths in Catalonia in a single day? Any sources? This feels superfishy.

eonden · May 22, 2020

Javier23 said:
What? That many deaths in Catalonia in a single day? Any sources? This feels superfishy.

I guuess they recalified some of the "suspicious deaths" (aka deaths with symptoms of coronaviruus but not tests) to "coronavirus deaths" (aka deaths where the dead had a positive coronavirus test). As Vitet said, it is not only from a single day.

Vitet · May 22, 2020

Javier23 said:
What? That many deaths in Catalonia in a single day? Any sources? This feels superfishy.

Not on a single day, includes not notified deaths from many days.

Hollywood Duo · May 22, 2020

NJ Daily Numbers:

+1394 new cases (152719 total)
+146 deaths (10985 total)

A couple of big items today

Hospitalizations dropped a good chunk, well be in the 2k range soon which is massive.

Dany1899 · May 22, 2020

Italy's update:
+652 new positive cases (total 228658)
+130 new deaths (total 32616)
+2160 new recoveries (total 136720)

Kito · May 22, 2020

What's the consensus here on what we expect to happen in the US going forward? My friend insists that once everything reopens, and thousands are dying every day, that's just going to be the norm and nothing can or will force Trump's hand for another shutdown. That every person who dies will just be replaced with another in the workforce and this is just how it's going to be.

I can't imagine the virus not spreading exponentially once morons start flooding theme parks, movie theaters, and eventually sports arenas. It just does not compute. I feel like once the hard heads who aren't taking the virus seriously start losing loved ones, there will be a dynamic shift in the country and fewer people will agree or stand to work in unsafe environments, forcing the government to shutdown before businesses collapse on their own from within.

So again, I'm interested in the outlook from others here. Thanks so much.

Froli · May 22, 2020

Found this on Reddit and made me angry

US Director for the Center for Infection and Immunity admits withholding evidence in JANUARY that even simple masks reduce community spread by 60%, in order to protect supplies for healthcare workers (including his wife). @33:30 Mark

So people who use facemasks in a consistent way had a 70% reduction in community transmission and if they used them intermittently it was 60%. I found that impressive and we talked about it but there was no access to facemasks and so I was I thought a long time about trying to publish this because if I did that, if we did that, it would have deprived you know people on the front lines because there weren't sufficient facemasks from getting access to those and it would have made things worse, so I didn't proceed with that. So that's something that unfortunately is going to go in the memoirs rather than in the written record

The Latest Podcasts in the Microbe.TV Network

www.microbe.tv

Min · May 22, 2020

Froli said:
Found this on Reddit and made me angry

US Director for the Center for Infection and Immunity admits withholding evidence in JANUARY that even simple masks reduce community spread by 60%, in order to protect supplies for healthcare workers (including his wife). @33:30 Mark

The Latest Podcasts in the Microbe.TV Network

The Latest Podcasts in the Microbe.TV Network

www.microbe.tv

dude I remember January. Lying about face masks was the least of our problems in January. This was not even in the public conscious in America in January. The specific lies about face masks didn't start popping until March. In January, we were still in it's never going to be here lies of the admin.

Hollywood Duo · May 22, 2020

Kito said:
What's the consensus here on what we expect to happen in the US going forward? My friend insists that once everything reopens, and thousands are dying every day, that's just going to be the norm and nothing can or will force Trump's hand for another shutdown. That every person who dies will just be replaced with another in the workforce and this is just how it's going to be.

I can't imagine the virus not spreading exponentially once morons start flooding theme parks, movie theaters, and eventually sports arenas. It just does not compute. I feel like once the hard heads who aren't taking the virus seriously start losing loved ones, there will be a dynamic shift in the country and fewer people will agree or stand to work in unsafe environments, forcing the government to shutdown before businesses collapse on their own from within.

So again, I'm interested in the outlook from others here. Thanks so much.

It completely depends on the area of the country.

Stacey · May 22, 2020

Trump just declared all places of worship as essential and are to open immediately

AoM · May 22, 2020

Thoughts and prayers from Trump.

UnknownSpirit · May 22, 2020

Stacey said:
Trump just declared all places of worship as essential and are to open immediately

He will also override the governors.. Somehow...

XMonkey · May 22, 2020

Kito said:
What's the consensus here on what we expect to happen in the US going forward? My friend insists that once everything reopens, and thousands are dying every day, that's just going to be the norm and nothing can or will force Trump's hand for another shutdown. That every person who dies will just be replaced with another in the workforce and this is just how it's going to be.

I can't imagine the virus not spreading exponentially once morons start flooding theme parks, movie theaters, and eventually sports arenas. It just does not compute. I feel like once the hard heads who aren't taking the virus seriously start losing loved ones, there will be a dynamic shift in the country and fewer people will agree or stand to work in unsafe environments, forcing the government to shutdown before businesses collapse on their own from within.

So again, I'm interested in the outlook from others here. Thanks so much.

Ultimately it's not up to Trump when deciding what is open or closed, it falls to state governors.

Joe Shlabotnik · May 22, 2020

Kito said:
What's the consensus here on what we expect to happen in the US going forward? My friend insists that once everything reopens, and thousands are dying every day, that's just going to be the norm and nothing can or will force Trump's hand for another shutdown. That every person who dies will just be replaced with another in the workforce and this is just how it's going to be.

I can't imagine the virus not spreading exponentially once morons start flooding theme parks, movie theaters, and eventually sports arenas. It just does not compute. I feel like once the hard heads who aren't taking the virus seriously start losing loved ones, there will be a dynamic shift in the country and fewer people will agree or stand to work in unsafe environments, forcing the government to shutdown before businesses collapse on their own from within.

So again, I'm interested in the outlook from others here. Thanks so much.

A plausible theory is that the really exponential spikes were driven by superspreading events that are going to remain closed—mass indoor gatherings, sporting events, etc. This combined with some increased unconscious attention to hygiene even in "wide open" states *might* keep the R under 1 in the best case scenario, or we limp along at a middling slog of a plateau as your friend suggests.

Edit: I mean during the summer, when transmission might presumably be reduced by heat/humidity.

t26 · May 22, 2020

Kito said:
What's the consensus here on what we expect to happen in the US going forward? My friend insists that once everything reopens, and thousands are dying every day, that's just going to be the norm and nothing can or will force Trump's hand for another shutdown. That every person who dies will just be replaced with another in the workforce and this is just how it's going to be.

I can't imagine the virus not spreading exponentially once morons start flooding theme parks, movie theaters, and eventually sports arenas. It just does not compute. I feel like once the hard heads who aren't taking the virus seriously start losing loved ones, there will be a dynamic shift in the country and fewer people will agree or stand to work in unsafe environments, forcing the government to shutdown before businesses collapse on their own from within.

So again, I'm interested in the outlook from others here. Thanks so much.

Many of the deaths are from nursing home, and going forward they are still taking every precaution even if rest of the country is open.

FaceHugger · May 22, 2020

Did anyone else get this in the mail? Is this some kind of Koch brother(s) tea party type astro turf crap being disseminated ahead of the elections to deflect blame to China for the Trump response to the virus?

for hugeness said:

Curler · May 22, 2020

FaceHugger said:
Did anyone else get this in the mail? Is this some kind of Koch brother(s) tea party type astro turf crap being disseminated ahead of the elections to deflect blame to China for the Trump response to the virus?

They hate China/CCP anyways, but here's some quick details on Epoch/Shen Yun/China/Etc,

Los Angeles Magazine

www.lamag.com

FaceHugger · May 22, 2020

Curler said:
They hate China/CCP anyways, but here's some quick details on Epoch/Shen Yun/China/Etc,

Los Angeles Magazine

www.lamag.com

Thanks. So wow, this is from the Falun Gong.

ReactionShot · May 22, 2020

The vaccine from China seems to be doing well: The Lancet

No serious adverse event was noted within 28 days post-vaccination. ELISA antibodies and neutralising antibodies increased significantly at day 14, and peaked 28 days post-vaccination. Specific T-cell response peaked at day 14 post-vaccination.

JCizzle · May 22, 2020

ReactionShot said:
The vaccine from China seems to be doing well: The Lancet

The conspiracy stuff will be off the charts if this comes through. I hate people.

Hyun Sai · May 22, 2020

JCizzle said:
The conspiracy stuff will be off the charts if this comes through. I hate people.

Nanomachines ?

JCizzle · May 22, 2020

Hyun Sai said:
Nanomachines ?

It will be everything lol. China had the vaccine all along!!!!! Will be another one 🤦‍♂️

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