Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

Joni · Apr 30, 2020

Soda said:
I haven't noticed this posted yet, but I believe it's one of the best projections for COVID-19-related deaths/cases I've seen. There are some nice graphs on there in addition to tables like the one I've copied below, and it includes international regions. We will be relatively fortunate, as sad as it is, if we stay under 150,000 deaths in the USA by August 4th.

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally

covid19-projections.com

Kinda curious how they come to the estimation for the number of infected.

Jmdajr · Apr 30, 2020

Wonder if they will expect me back at the office despite being able to do everything from home.

Kyrios · Apr 30, 2020

Jmdajr said:
Wonder if they will expect me back at the office despite being able to do everything from home.

Same.

Really don't feel like being subject to daily temperature checks and wearing a mask all day and do everything I can do from home instead.

Jmdajr · Apr 30, 2020

Kyrios said:
Same.

Really don't feel like being subject to daily temperature checks and wearing a mask all day and do everything I can do from home instead.

Plus I was used taking public transport. Now I would have to drive and a bunch of other things. No way I would use the public Kitchen area now., etc.

Kyrios · Apr 30, 2020

Jmdajr said:
Plus I was used taking public transport. Now I would have to drive and a bunch of other things. No way I would use the public Kitchen area now., etc.

Yeah exactly. Rather not have more anxiety of going through public areas at work. But I know my company said that we wouldn't be coming in for the full 5 days anyway so we'll see I guess.

darkwing · Apr 30, 2020

congrats to South Korea!

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Dany1899 · Apr 30, 2020

Italy's update:
+1872 new positive cases (total 205463)
+285 new deaths (total 27967)
+4693 new recoveries (total 75945)

alex.magnus · Apr 30, 2020

Dany1899 said:
Italy's update:
+1872 new positive cases (total 205463)
+285 new deaths (total 27967)
+4693 new recoveries (total 75945)

I wonder how long it will take to go below 1k... maybe a week?

Dany1899 · Apr 30, 2020

alex.magnus said:
I wonder how long it will take to go below 1k... maybe a week?

I think it could take more than one week. Lombardia had again +598 new cases, and Piemonte +428. Just the sum of these numbers is over 1k, and I don't think that in seven days their numbers will decrease a lot (In Piemonte the decrease is really slow, it has become the second most hit region, after Lombardia). But hopefully in two (three?) weeks we can have numers around 1k, unless the beginning of Phase 2 since May 4 will impact it.
Instead, for the other regions the numbers are quite good.Today there were 6 regions with increments under 10. And only other three regions (Veneto, Emilia, Liguria) had increments over 100.

A note about the number of today's recoveries. Out of those 4693, around 2500 were recoveried happened in Emilia Romagna in the previous days, but they weren't counted. So the actual number is a bit lower, a bit more than 2000 (as per trend).

Steel · Apr 30, 2020

I really wonder what the point of opening back up is if the virus hasn't slown down. The whole point of closing down was to get the case load under control so that when we open back up we could manage longer without having to shut down by isolating people who get it, ala South Korea. But there's been no slow down in cases in the U.S., just a stagnating of daily case numbers, things are spiking in different states now to pick up the slack New York is leaving, there's been no slow down in deaths either. Opening up will increase the R0, bottomline, there's no way around it. And if you increase the R0 when you have hundreds of thousands of known active cases, you're just asking for more people to die.

Dany1899 said:
Italy's update:
+1872 new positive cases (total 205463)
+285 new deaths (total 27967)
+4693 new recoveries (total 75945)

Can I just say I appreciate yours and other's daily update posts. Thanks.

alex.magnus · Apr 30, 2020

Dany1899 said:
I think it could take more than one week. Lombardia had again +598 new cases, and Piemonte +428. Just the sum of these numbers is over 1k, and I don't think that in seven days their numbers will decrease a lot (In Piemonte the decrease is really slow, it has become the second most hit region, after Lombardia). But hopefully in two (three?) weeks we can have numers around 1k, unless the beginning of Phase 2 since May 4 will impact it.
Instead, for the other regions the numbers are quite good.Today there were 6 regions with increments under 10. And only other three regions (Veneto, Emilia, Liguria) had increments over 100.

A note about the number of today's recoveries. Out of those 4693, around 2500 were recoveried happened in Emilia Romagna in the previous days, but they weren't counted. So the actual number is a bit lower, a bit more than 2000 (as per trend).

yeah, my region has been doing extremely good recently (Sardinia), hopefully the north will get well soon

Templeusox · Apr 30, 2020

Steel said:
Can I just say I appreciate yours and other's daily update posts. Thanks.

I agree. Though I'm also disappointed that people aren't consistently posting state numbers for NY and FL.

Dany1899 · Apr 30, 2020

Steel said:
I really wonder what the point of opening back up is if the virus hasn't slown down. The whole point of closing down was to get the case load under control so that when we open back up we could manage longer without having to shut down by isolating people who get it, ala South Korea. But there's been no slow down in cases in the U.S., just a stagnating of daily case numbers, things are spiking in different states now to pick up the slack New York is leaving, there's been no slow down in deaths either. Opening up will increase the R0, bottomline, there's no way around it. And if you increase the R0 when you have hundreds of thousands of known active cases, you're just asking for more people to die.

Can I just say I appreciate yours and other's daily update posts. Thanks.

You're welcome :) Even now that Italian numbers are not as disconcerting as they were before, I feel that it is a nice way to contribute to this thread. Just browsing some pages I can read detailed updates about France, Portugal, Germany, Sweden, US states etc. and it is a good way to keep ourselves informed about every country.

Serpens007 · Apr 30, 2020

A couple of days ago, criteria for testing in Chile changed, so now we started to count people with no symptoms (who would've known that they also can infect other people, right?).

First, yesterday, we had 520 new cases with sympthoms, and 250 with no sympthoms. Health Ministery didn't want to add the two to the overall number of infected. Then they did, and apologized.

Now, second day with this criteria, we now have 880 new cases, with only 108 of them being with no sympthom. The worst day since this began, since we also had 11 deaths in 24 hours, second highest number of the series.

And yet, today some shopping malls begun reopoening. People in line, a Mayor clapping at the oppening, first person to come in is an elderly woman.

YEP. The worst day of the pandemic is the day of reopening.

DrM · Apr 30, 2020

I will keep you all posted about situation in Slovenia. A lot of services will reopen on Monday, there is no municipality lock down anymore... so we could get another spike after a week or two. I hope not.

MasterChumly · Apr 30, 2020

Steel said:
I really wonder what the point of opening back up is if the virus hasn't slown down. The whole point of closing down was to get the case load under control so that when we open back up we could manage longer without having to shut down by isolating people who get it, ala South Korea. But there's been no slow down in cases in the U.S., just a stagnating of daily case numbers, things are spiking in different states now to pick up the slack New York is leaving, there's been no slow down in deaths either. Opening up will increase the R0, bottomline, there's no way around it. And if you increase the R0 when you have hundreds of thousands of known active cases, you're just asking for more people to die.

Can I just say I appreciate yours and other's daily update posts. Thanks.

So I think ultimately we have slown down a ton but the testing situation was such a clusterfuck in the United States it doesn't really show. That being said the baseline for new infections still seems to be way too high and could very easily explode when states open back up. I've very leery of opening back up without proper precautions. In addition most states still have garbage testing capacity and literally don't meet trump administrations guidelines to open and yet they are opening anyways

sweetmini · Apr 30, 2020

Bulletin for the
French situation for today 30/04:

129581 confirmed cases + 1139 in 24H
hospital:
26283 hospitalized -551 in 24 H (1048 entries)
4019 in intensive care -188 in 24 H (121 entries)
15244 dead + 191 in 24 H

Care homes:
32355 confirmed cases + 560
9132 dead + 98 in 24H

Total 24376 deaths + 289 in 24H. Since the beginning of the outbreak, 29% of France deaths are deaths of covid patients (dematerialized records).

hospital graphs

DukeBlueBall · Apr 30, 2020

Kyougar said:

2nd to last pic. Wtf at dat ass reaction. 🤔

sweetmini · Apr 30, 2020

DukeBlueBall said:
2nd to last pic. Wtf at dat ass reaction. 🤔

Yeah, it's ridiculous ...
not worth the time for thoughts ;)

Kyougar · Apr 30, 2020

DukeBlueBall said:
2nd to last pic. Wtf at dat ass reaction. 🤔

Cuburger said:
Why is there a "dat ass" meme photoshopped into the 2nd to last picture? lol

It's the Internet, no explanation needed.

Hollywood Duo · Apr 30, 2020

NJ Daily Numbers:

+2633 new cases (118652 total)
+460 deaths (7228 total(

69k are expected to have recovered

The heat map still improving, South Jersey continues to stick out as the last hold out

Hospitalizations have dropped by 15% week over week. Ventilator use is at its lowest point since April 4th.

PickledCucumber · Apr 30, 2020

Jmdajr said:
Wonder if they will expect me back at the office despite being able to do everything from home.

Our boss expects us back if we go to Phase 2 in CA...

I'm the only one who takes public transit.

And even then, I still don't feel comfortable going to the office when I can still work from home.

Sectorseven · Apr 30, 2020

Is that a new high for NJ deaths?

Jmdajr · Apr 30, 2020

TeddieBear said:
Our boss expects us back if we go to Phase 2 in CA...

I'm the only one who takes public transit.

And even then, I still don't feel comfortable going to the office when I can still work from home.

I feel same. It's nice to still be able to hug my wife and kids. Once I veture out.......don't know.

Templeusox · Apr 30, 2020

Sectorseven said:
Is that a new high for NJ deaths?

Yea, by more than 50 deaths. Listening to the press conference now to see if it includes some deaths that haven't been counted over the last month. A huge jump happened in Pennsylvania yesterday for that some reason. Nothing else in the data indicates why such a big jump would have happened today.

Edit: Yea, just confirmed in NJ Press Conference that the jump in deaths is a reflection of NJ changing some cause of deaths over the last month to COVID-related.

Golden Darkness · Apr 30, 2020

Michigan Republicans are being a pain-in-the-ass. Playing with lives by making it difficult to keep a state-of-emergency.

RDreamer · Apr 30, 2020

Golden Darkness said:
Michigan Republicans are being a pain-in-the-ass. Playing with lives by making it difficult to keep a state-of-emergency.

Wisconsin republicans are doing the same. They're suing our governor, too.

We're going to have such a fucking hard time with this virus especially if it comes back more in the fall....

Deleted member 7148 · Apr 30, 2020

I ordered some nerdy gamer-styled face masks off of Esty today. Ohio is slowly opening back up but requiring face masks inside of shops. Our work is also requiring them starting tomorrow, but most of us are continuing to work from home. This will be the new normal for quite awhile so I guess I'll have some fun with it.

kazinova · Apr 30, 2020

JDFaulky said:
I ordered some nerdy gamer-styled face masks off of Esty today. Ohio is slowly opening back up but requiring face masks inside of shops. Our work is also requiring them starting tomorrow, but most of us are continuing to work from home. This will be the new normal for quite awhile so I guess I'll have some fun with it.

I'm curious what gamer-style ones you found, I snagged some neck gaiters, half random colors, half kind of tacticool garbage. Seems like we'll all need to expand our options.

Deleted member 7148 · Apr 30, 2020

kazinova said:
I'm curious what gamer-style ones you found, I snagged some neck gaiters, half random colors, half kind of tacticool garbage. Seems like we'll all need to expand our options.

I ordered Pac-Man ones. It looks like a lot of Etsy creators are buying various video game related fabrics and making masks with them. I saw Super Mario, Zelda and Minecraft. The Pac-Man ones were cheaper than the others though.

eyeball_kid · Apr 30, 2020

Brazil with 390 deaths so far today, it's looking like their curve is heading straight up.

Deleted member 13101 · Apr 30, 2020

CT has 933 new confirmed cases, 89 deaths, -41 net hospitalizations (8th straight day of a drop in net hospitalizations, but deaths and new cases are still high).

Gov. Lamont must be feeling pressure to reopen, from the local newspaper editorials to the 48% of unemployment claims coming from personal service sectors (restaurants, salons, casinos, some retail), to the lack of federal funding to the states and further congressional legislation. His reopening plan unveiling today is just leaving more questions than answers when it comes to timeframes and who can reopen first, because none of that is clear right now. Golf courses and tennis courts will be reopening tomorrow, though. It's a tough time to watch the curve flatten but not yet drop.

Naijaboy · Apr 30, 2020

Bad news for Nigeria. The country has seen a spike of 198 and 195 cases in the past couple days, nearly double the previous high. The country can only expect cases to continue that trend.

mario_O · Apr 30, 2020

wtf america.

N.Domixis · Apr 30, 2020

mario_O said:
wtf america.

Why is it that it's always trump supporters? God damn

eonden · Apr 30, 2020

Yeah, it is starting to look like the state of alarm in Spain will likely not be prorogued by the parliament because parties just want to play it political (the right and some of the independentist parties) and general want of some regional powers to recover power (and pass some of their blame to the central government) together with general central government mistakes (and well, regional governments wanting to get the good of "rushing the recovery").

Bets on it happening other spanish-era? (I guess Funky Papa )

MarioW · Apr 30, 2020

IHME really needs to update their model for projections urgently. How in the blazes did they only yesterday revise from 74k deaths in the US by August down to 72k? It is irresponsible keeping those projections up while not accounting for what the practical situation actually is.

Marossi · Apr 30, 2020

eyeball_kid said:
Brazil with 390 deaths so far today, it's looking like their curve is heading straight up.

April 28 registered 520 deaths
April 29 registered 448 deaths
April 30 registered 390 deaths (for now)

I'm not good at mathematics but I don't think this is straight up.

But it's expected for our death ratios getting high this week and the next, we are starting to hit our peak.

Senator Toadstool · Apr 30, 2020

mario_O said:
wtf america.

i love his flag bib

RDreamer · Apr 30, 2020

These meat processing plant flare ups are going to get baaaaad.

Afrikan · Apr 30, 2020

mario_O said:
wtf america.

Es Normal.

Deleted member 21709 · Apr 30, 2020

Non-stop ambulance sirens in NYC today, literally non-stop. Last week things were improving..

Curler · Apr 30, 2020

inguef said:
Non-stop ambulance sirens in NYC today, literally non-stop. Last week things were improving..

A sad outcome when people loosen up about it ongoing. There's been pics of HUGE crowds for funerals, and no social distancing in popular jogging spots, so things will continue, sadly :/

Deleted member 36054 · Apr 30, 2020

inguef said:
Non-stop ambulance sirens in NYC today, literally non-stop. Last week things were improving..

Haha, talk about anecdotes. Don't be a doomer. It's been quiet here. And my nurse friends have definitely said it's slowed down, at least NYU Langone.

RainerDrix · Apr 30, 2020

Big_Blue said:
Haha, talk about anecdotes. Don't be a doomer. It's been quiet here. And my nurse friends have definitely said it's slowed down, at least NYU Langone.

And I'll throw in for Nassau County, LI. I work at NUMC and it's significantly slowed down compared to 2-4 weeks ago.

CrankyJay · Apr 30, 2020

Pretty sure my doctor just billed me $20 for asking during my physical if I am at higher risk for coronavirus difficulties for high BP even though it's controlled with meds...was coded as BRIEF EMOTIONAL/BEHAV AS 96127. What the fuck is that?

eyeball_kid · Apr 30, 2020

Haee said:
April 28 registered 520 deaths
April 29 registered 448 deaths
April 30 registered 390 deaths (for now)

I'm not good at mathematics but I don't think this is straight up.

But it's expected for our death ratios getting high this week and the next, we are starting to hit our peak.

If you look at the Daily Deaths chart, though dailies have fluctuated, the average trend line is increasing, as you can see in the Total Deaths chart. I hope you're correct that things are close to peaking.

Brazil COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Brazil Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I don't know why Brazil's case rate is so much higher than other central and south American countries though. Do you have any insight on that?

eonden · Apr 30, 2020

eyeball_kid said:
If you look at the Daily Deaths chart, though dailies have fluctuated, the average trend line is increasing, as you can see in the Total Deaths chart. I hope you're correct that things are close to peaking.

Brazil COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Brazil Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I don't know why Brazil's case rate is so much higher than other central and south American countries though. Do you have any insight on that?

Bolsonaro has been doing everything in his hand to fuck things up. The rest of the countries have tried to do the opposite.

Deleted member 36054 · Apr 30, 2020

eyeball_kid said:
If you look at the Daily Deaths chart, though dailies have fluctuated, the average trend line is increasing, as you can see in the Total Deaths chart. I hope you're correct that things are close to peaking.

Brazil COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Brazil Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I don't know why Brazil's case rate is so much higher than other central and south American countries though. Do you have any insight on that?

I wouldn't panic. Brazil is probably testing more than other South American countries. New hospitalizations is the statistic that would worry me.

Falcon511 · Apr 30, 2020

Well my sister works as an Occupational Therapist and there are 11 cases of the virus where she works at. So now we are all on edge a bit.

Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

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