Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

[Sloane]

Antibody study suggests coronavirus may be far more widespread than previously thought

Non-peer reviewed study from Stanford found virus may be 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicate

www.theguardian.com

1000 confirmed case but estimated 48000-80000 people with antibody. I am guessing....

1. The virus circulated much earlier.
2. The virus is more infectious.
3. There are much more asymptomatic people than previously estimated.
4. USA testing sucks.
5. The study is flawed.

Click to shrink...

2 doesn't seem all that likely going by this (preprint) study. It seems to be a bit more infectious than SARS and MERS but a secondary attack rate of only 14-20% in household would be about the same as other ARIs.

1 seems very likely to me, especially in California but there's no proof. 3 and 4 are almost a given.

5 probably a bit because a ~0.1% IFR would be on the very low end.

Quite the increase in Germany again. Almost 4k.... I've read the RKI has started publishing the "infection rate" (R0) somewhere, but I can't find it.

Click to shrink...

Yesterday's report. Today's isn't out yet, I think.

 

[Crazymoogle]

Wow. So for some reason Singapore updated their tally early today (probably backed up too much lately) - and it's massive. 942 cases. The overall rate looks a lot like an exponential graph.

And yet, only 14 (!) of them are Singaporean/PR. So basically:

• Lockdown/Containment strategy: working fast
• Foreign Worker Dorm strategy: two weeks too late. As of yesterday (before this report) they accounted for more than 60% of all cases.

It's possible that the lockdown ends on time, but with all foreign worker dorms quarantined, if that's even possible? As it is the rate of case gain in the dorms is almost faster than the government's ability to expand quarantine housing in the convention centers. Not exactly easy either, with 300k foreign workers in that system. It's like having a fleet of cruise ships on land.

 

[hEist]

Quite the increase in Germany again. Almost 4k.... I've read the RKI has started publishing the "infection rate" (R0) somewhere, but I can't find it.

Click to shrink...

RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - ARE-Wochenbericht, Pandemieradar, frühere COVID-19-Wochenberichte

Das RKI veröffentlicht arbeitstäglich einen Lagebericht mit einer detaillierten Analyse der COVID-19-Meldedaten.

www.rki.de

page 6(5) in the ger (eng) pdf.

 

[hannybunny24]

For the germans here. Really interesting and unsettling read about the Heinsberg Study and what possible weird shit some politicians in NRW are trying to pull:

Corona-Studie: der Plan hinter dem „Heinsberg-Protokoll“

Die Corona-Studie aus Heinsberg gilt als wegweisende Untersuchung im Kampf gegen das Virus. Ein internes PR-Konzept der Agentur Storymachine zeigt, wie di...

www.capital.de

 

[zulux21]

For the germans here. Really interesting and unsettling read about the Heinsberg Study and what possible weird shit some politicians in NRW are trying to pull:

Corona-Studie: der Plan hinter dem „Heinsberg-Protokoll“

Die Corona-Studie aus Heinsberg gilt als wegweisende Untersuchung im Kampf gegen das Virus. Ein internes PR-Konzept der Agentur Storymachine zeigt, wie di...

www.capital.de

Click to shrink...

any way you can give a quick summery for those of us who don't speak German?

 

[Loudninja]

I swear man this dumbfucks still think ignoring the virus will make it go away,I never seen such stupidity in my life.

 

[4Tran]

I hope it slows down this week in the US for sure. I think we may see sustained levels of a rolling 7-day average of 2,000+ for at least the next week though... and if Italy & Spain are anything to go by, then we will hit a sustained time at 50 to 75% of the peak (which is basically what Spain and Italy are still stuck at).

This is with us maintaining reasonable strict restrictions and keeping our healthcare providers safe.

Click to shrink...

It's unlikely that the US is anywhere near the peak yet. I doubt that this will happen until we see Covid-19 get absolutely rampant in the rural areas. I'm pretty sure that this is already happening as they are the places where social distancing is the most poorly respected. I'd be surprised if May isn't going to be vastly worse than April in the US.

 

[Piston]

It's unlikely that the US is anywhere near the peak yet. I doubt that this will happen until we see Covid-19 get absolutely rampant in the rural areas. I'm pretty sure that this is already happening as they are the places where social distancing is the most poorly respected. I'd be surprised if May isn't going to be vastly worse than April in the US.

Click to shrink...

Even without people social distancing in rural areas, it is harder for it to spread because they don't have close quarter interactions as often on transport or in other situations. It is also harder for it to hop from one rural community to another because they do not tend to be destinations. It is more likely to get it from a city and bring it back to rural communities.

Has there been a well-documented case of it affecting a rural community on a systematic basis yet?

 

[4Tran]

Even without people social distancing in rural areas, it is harder for it to spread because they don't have close quarter interactions as often on transport or in other situations. It is also harder for it to hop from one rural community to another because they do not tend to be destinations. It is more likely to get it from a city and bring it back to rural communities.

Has there been a well-documented case of it affecting a rural community on a systematic basis yet?

Click to shrink...

It's basically exploding in meat packing plants and long term care facilities everywhere now. I think the most notable cases are in South Dakota right now but it's going to be everywhere in no time. The low usage of public transportation does help to slow down the speed of infection but I think that it gives a false sense of security that will only heighten the actual infections because people don't think it'll affect their community. There was an article about a month ago that claimed that because of how Americans are more spread out than in Europe and Asia, the US would be less affected. It was a BS idea back then, and the American rural areas are guaranteed to be hard hit now.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Some promising news on the re-testing positive front, Korean CDC tried incubating the virus from people who re-tested positive and were unable to do so, suggesting that the positive re-tests were picking up strands of incomplete (dead) viral RNA. More testing still needed, of course.

Recovered coronavirus patients are testing positive again. Can you get reinfected? | CNN

In South Korea, health officials are trying to solve a mystery: why 163 people who recovered from coronavirus have retested positive, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC).

www.cnn.com

 

[hannybunny24]

any way you can give a quick summery for those of us who don't speak German?

Click to shrink...

I'll try:

-The Heinsberg study was marketed by a PR-Company owned by former BILD (german tabloid on par with THE SUN etc, basically FOX-NEWS) CEO Kai Diekmann and an old acquaintance of the study leader.
- It's HIGHLY unusual for scientific studies to hire PR.
-There is an internal paper from this PR company.
-Tweets like "This is not about opinions, it's about making facts as a basis" from the study-leader Prof. Dr. Streek are found word for word in this PR paper.
-The internal PR plan is 22 pages long, is addressed to potential sponsors from industry and commerce and was written while the study was in its early days.
-Armin Laschet, NRW minister and helmsman of the "let's open quickly" faction paid 65.000 for the research. He also is contesting for the top spot in the ruling German party, a place that often comes with the benefit of being a candidate to become chancellor.
-Parts of the cost of this PR is paid for by sponsors (lobbyists).
-The PR paper also has a timetable and specific messages it wants to get across to as much people as possible. They want to create a narrative that the shutdown can be loosened. Again this was written bevor there was any outcome to this research.
-Laschet denies knowing anything about this PR but there are some highly suspect overlaps in dates from press conferences he held and that are outlined in the paper.

All in all this seems absolutely fishy.

 

[Dr. Mario]

Not sure where else to post this but this virus is really impacting me emotionally and it sucks.
The less important stuff is that I had finally finished uni and was about to graduate and after three years I was in the final visa process and meant to be moving to my fiance and marrying him in July and my parents had booked plans to fly over for the ceremony in July. That is all postponed as Australian borders are shut.

Worse though is my fiance is very high risk and alas he lives in the number one hot spot in the country. Minehaha county and I am just devastated by this. He got furloughed so he is at home now anyway and I am making sure he leaves for nothing but if he gets it there is a good chance he will die. He actually said that he is scared of that today and it made me feel sick as I just can't even imagine that and I feel so far away and helpless. It sucks.

Click to shrink...

That's super rough. Even with a good chance, by far most people below 50 will likely pull through though, but I hope you can cheer each other up through videocalling.

 

[Dr. Mario]

I'll try:

-The Heinsberg study was marketed by a PR-Company owned by former BILD (german tabloid on par with THE SUN etc, basically FOX-NEWS) CEO Kai Diekmann and an old acquaintance of the study leader.
- It's HIGHLY unusual for scientific studies to hire PR.
-There is an internal paper from this PR company.
-Tweets like "This is not about opinions, it's about making facts as a basis" from the study-leader Prof. Dr. Streek are found word for word in this PR paper.
-The internal PR plan is 22 pages long, is addressed to potential sponsors from industry and commerce and was written while the study was in its early days.
-Armin Laschet, NRW minister and helmsman of the "let's open quickly" faction paid 65.000 for the research. He also is contesting for the top spot in the ruling German party, a place that often comes with the benefit of being a candidate to become chancellor.
-Parts of the cost of this PR is paid for by sponsors (lobbyists).
-The PR paper also has a timetable and specific messages it wants to get across to as much people as possible. They want to create a narrative that the shutdown can be loosened. Again this was written bevor there was any outcome to this research.
-Laschet denies knowing anything about this PR but there are some highly suspect overlaps in dates from press conferences he held and that are outlined in the paper.

All in all this seems absolutely fishy.

Click to shrink...

Hmm. On the one hand, every university or private institution study on covid19 will have PR people involved, because administration will understand the potential to reach the entire globe. Usually internal PR, but an outside firm is not unheard of. On the other hand, commercial parties and politicians being involved is definitely extremely fishy.

 

[Dphex]

For the germans here. Really interesting and unsettling read about the Heinsberg Study and what possible weird shit some politicians in NRW are trying to pull:

Corona-Studie: der Plan hinter dem „Heinsberg-Protokoll“

Die Corona-Studie aus Heinsberg gilt als wegweisende Untersuchung im Kampf gegen das Virus. Ein internes PR-Konzept der Agentur Storymachine zeigt, wie di...

www.capital.de

Click to shrink...

yeah, even better that a PR agency called "storymachine" is behind this, founded by Kai Diekmann, former Bild chief editor...smells suspicious

 

[Joni]

Belgium: 290 deaths, 93 in hospitals and 192 in retirement homes. Total is now raised to 5.453.
303 new hospitalisations, but 387 people have been discharged. It means 5.069 beds are occupied, and 1.119 on ICU, that is a drop of respectively 92 and 21.

Some interesting investigation as well on the virus itself. In most countries, the outbreak can be traced back to a couple of superclusters, meaning 2 or 3 people from where it cascaded. Like in the Netherlands, the Northern Brabant carnival cases. With albeit a limited set of 200 people, they have seen that for Belgium we got a lot more outbreaks, originating from among others the UK, Netherlands, Swiss and Italy. It shows mostly nicely how much foreign travel goes through Belgium and how it was idiotic to not force quarantine on people returning from holidays after the 'crocus' break.

 

[DrM]

Update from Slovenia
1318 cases (+13), 70 deaths (+4), 93 people in hospital (-2), 27 on IC (-1) .

 

[Bigwombat]

Texas wants to reopen by may 1st. They have 29 million people living there and only 169,000 tests have been done for the entire state. Crazy town!

 

[Mac_Lane]

So there are protests in Texas today. Bunch of morons these people.

 

[Xando]

Found this very interesting:



Germany and Italy have the same % of tests but italy is hit far worse.

Shows how crucial early testing is.


Also US/UK/France testing is abysmal.

 

[Mixen]

I know we have seperate thread(s) for Sweden but I thought this interview (in english) with John Giesecke would be interesting for eveyone.
He is: "one of the world's most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO".

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy



Some of the points he is making:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a "by-product"
• The initial UK response, before the "180 degree U-turn", was better
• The Imperial College paper was "not very good" and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

I have no idea if he is right or what he is basing this on. It would be interesting here what other epidemilogists thinks about what he is saying.

 

[plow]

I know we have seperate thread(s) for Sweden but I thought this interview (in english) with John Giesecke would be interesting for eveyone.
He is: "one of the world's most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO".

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy



Some of the points he is making:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a "by-product"
• The initial UK response, before the "180 degree U-turn", was better
• The Imperial College paper was "not very good" and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

I have no idea if he is right or what he is basing this on. It would be interesting here what other epidemilogists thinks about what he is saying.

Click to shrink...

I call bullshit on many Things. Especially the 0,1 death rate. Even the Heinsberg Study projected 0,4.

Especially the similar to flu Part, wtf is He Smoking? He should go to Bergamo and ask the Doctors and helpers there.

 

[Sloane]

I know we have seperate thread(s) for Sweden but I thought this interview (in english) with John Giesecke would be interesting for eveyone.
He is: "one of the world's most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO".

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy



Some of the points he is making:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a "by-product"
• The initial UK response, before the "180 degree U-turn", was better
• The Imperial College paper was "not very good" and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

I have no idea if he is right or what he is basing this on. It would be interesting here what other epidemilogists thinks about what he is saying.

Click to shrink...

Thanks, interesting and mostly fair points, I think -- only "at least 50%" seems pretty high to me. 20-30% I could see but 50%?

 

[Xando]

I know we have seperate thread(s) for Sweden but I thought this interview (in english) with John Giesecke would be interesting for eveyone.
He is: "one of the world's most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO".

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy



Some of the points he is making:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a "by-product"
• The initial UK response, before the "180 degree U-turn", was better
• The Imperial College paper was "not very good" and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

I have no idea if he is right or what he is basing this on. It would be interesting here what other epidemilogists thinks about what he is saying.

Click to shrink...

Looking at the data coming out of sweden i don't think we should listen to anyone who is advocating for that ludicrous strategy.

When you have 4/5 times the deaths per capita compared to your neighbours, you failed.

 

[Musician]

Swedens numbers

Especially the similar to flu Part, wtf is He Smoking? He should go to Bergamo and ask the Doctors and helpers there.

Click to shrink...

Not taking a stand here for Giesecke here, but I think his idea is that the amount of deaths will be similar or maybe twice that of a bad influenza winter, not that the disease is "like the flu".

Looking at the data coming out of sweden i don't think we should listen to anyone who is advocating for that ludicrous strategy.

When you have 4/5 times the deaths per capita compared to your neighbours, you failed.

Click to shrink...

Again, what he's saying is that Sweden has more deaths now, but that the number will equalize whenever countries begin to loosen their restrictions. He said that while dying a few months earlier than you would've done in Finland or Norway is of course "not so nice", but that the massive hit to the economy and democracy (his example was Hungary with Orban now being dictator for life) is much, much worse.

 

[Xando]

Deaths per 100k:

Sweden 14
Denmark 6
Germany 5
Norway 3
Finland 1

Coronavirus World Map: Tracking the Global Outbreak (Published 2023)

The virus has infected and killed millions of people around the world. See detailed maps and charts for each country.

www.nytimes.com

Definitely a great strategy.

 

[Deleted member 1476]

Get the fuck outta here with this flu bullshit. Praising the herd immunity genocide that the UK wanted to do is just icing on the cake, how do you protect the frail and the old when in many places those people live together with regular ones and the latter need to work.

Mild disease my ass, tell that to Italy and NY.

 

[Sloane]

Deaths per 100k:

Sweden 14
Denmark 6
Germany 5
Norway 3
Finland 1

Coronavirus World Map: Tracking the Global Outbreak (Published 2023)

The virus has infected and killed millions of people around the world. See detailed maps and charts for each country.

www.nytimes.com

Definitely a great strategy.

Click to shrink...

Belgium 47
Spain 43
Italy 37
France 29
UK 21
Netherlands 20
Switzerland 15
Sweden 14

 

[Dany1899]

I know we have seperate thread(s) for Sweden but I thought this interview (in english) with John Giesecke would be interesting for eveyone.
He is: "one of the world's most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO".



Some of the points he is making:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a "by-product"
• The initial UK response, before the "180 degree U-turn", was better
• The Imperial College paper was "not very good" and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

I have no idea if he is right or what he is basing this on. It would be interesting here what other epidemilogists thinks about what he is saying.

Click to shrink...

I am not an expert, while this John Giesecke is a senior epidemiologist. So I don't have strong, scientific arguments against what he says. However, as a "common person", let me say that I find some of his statements a bit strange. The first which catches my eyes is that according to him Covid-19 is a "mild diseases" and people were scared by the novelty. Well, I don't think that "mild diseases" are able to spread so much and fast among the world, and are able to kill hundreds of thousands of people, putting much more at risk of death. At the same time, the policy to protect the old and frail only seems not the best one as well, in my opinion. That would mean to leave millions of other people outside lockdown, and we saw that everyone can get a fatal form of Covid-19.
I don't think if at the end he will be right about the fact that at leasr 50% of UK and Sweden will be showing to have had Covid-19, but I doubt that "the results will eventually be similar for all countries".

 

[Xando]

Belgium 47
Spain 43
Italy 37
France 29
UK 21
Netherlands 20
Switzerland 15
Sweden 14

Click to shrink...

So the defense is now 'its not as bad as the biggest disasters on the planet'?

Again, what he's saying is that Sweden has more deaths now, but that the number will equalize whenever countries begin to loosen their restrictions. He said that while dying a few months earlier than you would've done in Finland or Norway is of course "not so nice", but that the massive hit to the economy and democracy (his example was Hungary with Orban now being dictator for life) is much, much worse.

Click to shrink...

Again this completely misunderstands the strategy those countries in lockdown use.

The aim is to reduce the stress on the system by pushing the R0 down to allow to get back into contact tracing.

Herd immunity will be achieved by a vaccine, not in a natural way like Sweden tries which will reduce overall deaths

 

[plow]

Belgium 47
Spain 43
Italy 37
France 29
UK 21
Netherlands 20
Switzerland 15
Sweden 14

Click to shrink...

Yeah lets ignore the fact that all of These are hugely more densely populated than sweden. Just to push your Agenda

 

[Dr. Mario]

The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown

Click to shrink...

Heh I was musing about this to myself earlier whether this could play a part. It feels like it would mean the actual infection rate would be much, much higher than any evidence could be found for though.

I feel like this guy is still very much in the mindset that the Dutch and British doctors were in in the beginning and quickly walked back on though. Maybe because the disease does not progress as bad in Sweden?

As for mild disease, I feel like again there's no evidence currently that CFR will be 0.1%, but it could be, similar to the flu I mean. But on any given moment, people will have some antibodies for the flu, and not so much for covid19.

 

[Mixen]

So the defense is now 'its not as bad as the biggest disasters on the planet'?

Click to shrink...

Maybe you should listen to the interview instead?

Yeah lets ignore the fact that all of These are hugely more densely populated than sweden. Just to push your Agenda

Click to shrink...

Well Stockholm is a pretty densely populated area and that's where the large majority of deaths and cases are. Rest of Sweden is pretty similar to the other nordic countries.

 

[Sloane]

So the defense is now 'its not as bad as the biggest disasters on the planet'?

Click to shrink...

What defense? The point is, you're saying Sweden's strategy is bad because so far they have about twice as many deaths / pop as Denmark and three times that of Germany and make it look like they are doing the worst but fail to mention that other countries that are on the same or even a stricter strategy than Germany have 2-3x as many deaths / pop as Sweden.

Yeah lets ignore the fact that all of These are hugely more densely populated than sweden. Just to push your Agenda

Click to shrink...

Compared to the UK, Spain isn't exactly densely populated either -- and Stockholm's population density is actually higher than London's, for example. What's my agenda?

 

[Alastor3]

Just got my first grocery delivery yesterday and now im scared as hell to had bringing virus in my home (im an anxious person). I left the pantry in a closet for more than 3 days before touching it but i didn't wash any plastic container for stuff that goes in the fridge but i do wash my hand every time i touch them.

Beside fruits and veggies, do you guys wash your other packaging?

Im guessing virus live longer in the refrigerator if, let say, a plastic container can live normaly 3 days on it

 

[eonden]

"We dont need to go full lockdown" works pretty well until your healthcare system starts to collapse because there are too many people getting infected too fast. Heck, the UK and Netherlands were close to that collapse because they took longer than they should to start taking measures.

Sweden seems to be lucky they didnt get a mega infection event (such as the ones that happened in the rest of Europe) where a ton of people are infected in the same place and then spread the disease around.

What defense? The point is, you're saying Sweden's strategy is bad because so far they have about twice as many deaths / pop as Denmark and three times that of Germany and make it look like they are doing the worst but fail to mention that other countries that are on the same or even a stricter strategy than Germany have 2-3x as many deaths / pop as Sweden.


Compared to the UK, Spain isn't exactly densely populated either -- and Stockholm's population density is actually higher than London's, for example. What's my agenda?

Click to shrink...

The places in Spain and Italy where the disease took place are pretty densily populated (Madrid and Catalonia). Most of the rural areas of Spain (where most people dont live) have basically coasted through it.

 

[Musician]

The aim is to reduce the stress on the system by pushing the R0 down to allow to get back into contact tracing.

Herd immunity will be achieved by a vaccine, not in a natural way like Sweden tries which will reduce overall deaths

Click to shrink...

I think he finds that idea impossible due to lockdown fatigue. Remember that 18 months would be world record pace for a vaccine. That's a long time to tell people to stay indoors and isolated in a somewhat functional democracy.

Just to be clear, I've no idea which strategy is the correct one. As someone living in Sweden, I of course hope that our path won't lead to disaster. I guess we'll know sometime in may at the latest...

 

[anamika]

I know we have seperate thread(s) for Sweden but I thought this interview (in english) with John Giesecke would be interesting for eveyone.
He is: "one of the world's most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO".

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy



Some of the points he is making:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a "by-product"
• The initial UK response, before the "180 degree U-turn", was better
• The Imperial College paper was "not very good" and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

I have no idea if he is right or what he is basing this on. It would be interesting here what other epidemilogists thinks about what he is saying.

Click to shrink...

• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only

How does he suggest that the old and frail are protected without a lockdown. I live with two old people and if I have to go to work and come back home, that would endanger them. Swedish children attending school, could get the virus, are asymptomatic and carry it home where grandparents maybe staying.

Or do old people not stay with their children/grandchildren in Sweden?

 

[plow]

I know we have seperate thread(s) for Sweden but I thought this interview (in english) with John Giesecke would be interesting for eveyone.
He is: "one of the world's most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO".

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy



Some of the points he is making:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a "by-product"
• The initial UK response, before the "180 degree U-turn", was better
• The Imperial College paper was "not very good" and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

I have no idea if he is right or what he is basing this on. It would be interesting here what other epidemilogists thinks about what he is saying.

Click to shrink...

i try to go in depth now:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based: No Shit, the disease is new. But not doing anything would be far worse.
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only: How does this work? Do you want to lock them down alone? How do they go buy things? What about the people that live together with old and ill people? This is not "correct policy" it's bullshit.
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a "by-product" : And million of people will die. Nice "byproduct"
• The initial UK response, before the "180 degree U-turn", was better: No it was not and the UK is in a catastrophic state because of that. they don't have enough testing capacity and many people are dying.
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries: Again bullshit. ook at Germany or South Korea. They're showing that reacting fast is working.
• Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people. I'm not even gonna argue this, so much wrong.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1% : Again wrong. Many, many experts expect a fatality rate of 0,7%-0,9%. The Heinsberg Study showed a fatality rate of 0,49&.
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.: This is so unbelievably wrong holy shit. Just look up the paper on the Heinsberg study. They tested 1000 people of the most affected town inn all of Germany. 15%!! of those had immunity. Even then, they said that in germany the number is much lower.

 

[Xando]

What defense? The point is, you're saying Sweden's strategy is bad because so far they have about twice as many deaths / pop as Denmark and three times that of Germany and make it look like they are doing the worst but fail to mention that other countries that are on the same or even a stricter strategy than Germany have 2-3x as many deaths / pop as Sweden.

Click to shrink...

So what you're saying is Sweden should be happy they only killed half the people france has killed per capity rather than aim to emulate those countries that evidently got it right?

Compared to the UK, Spain isn't exactly densely populated either -- and Stockholm's population density is actually higher than London's, for example. What's my agenda?

Click to shrink...

People per square KM:

Sweden 25
Spain 94
UK 281


Stockholm density 5200 per square KM
London density 5666 per square KM

Can you stop making up facts?

I think he finds that idea impossible due to lockdown fatigue. Remember that 18 months would be world record pace for a vaccine. That's a long time to tell people to stay indoors and isolated in a somewhat functional democracy.

Just to be clear, I've no idea which strategy is the correct one. As someone living in Sweden, I of course hope that our path won't lead to disaster. I guess we'll know sometime in may at the latest...

Click to shrink...

You don't stay in lockdown for 18 months. Here in germany the lockdown will be almost completely eased by May 3 which makes it 1 1/2 months.

Our R0 went from 5-6 to now 0.7 which allows contact tracing to start again.

 

[Deleted member 1476]

The sheer hubris coming from Sweden is out of this world.

 

[plow]

This shit sounds like those things that Wodarg and his friends are proclaiming in their Alt-Right Media in germany and getting laughed on by every respected Expert.

 

[hannybunny24]

Not evidence based? The closest thing we have to a comparable situation is the spanish flu and there is evidence that regions which closed down hard and early were better off long term.

Also calling the UK approach before the lockdown good is fucking insane. Look how hard it hit them just because they reacted 2 weeks to late. Imagine if they would have waited 2 weeks longer.

You can not compare Sweden and nordic countries with middle Europe. The Sweden strategy would not have worked anymore in Italy etc. It was way too late. First you need to get it back under control.

 

[GCX]

Well Stockholm is a pretty densely populated area and that's where the large majority of deaths and cases are. Rest of Sweden is pretty similar to the other nordic countries.

Click to shrink...

It's the same in other Nordic countries too though. Like in Finland for example 2/3 of the cases have been in the Helsinki area.

 

[Xando]

The sheer hubris coming from Sweden is out of this world.

Click to shrink...

99% of the world is wrong. Swedish epidemiologists are the only people that have figured it out!

 

[Mr_F_Snowman]

That guys points seem to miss some pretty important factors - like the fact that letting it go through society without mitigation completely destroys and cripples the health service of that country within a few weeks - which leads to many more deaths that you avoid when you spread out the impact of Covid.

Lets say there are, over a year, 200'000 people admitted to hospital as a result of car crashes and 1% die. Condense that number into a week and you're mortality rate doesn't stay at 1% - you're hospital system is overwhelmed and not only do all the car crash people just die out in the street so do thousands of other people with otherwise preventable / treatable illness.

He sounds like a moron honestly

 

[Deleted member 1476]

This shit sounds like those things that Wodarg and his friends are proclaiming in their Alt-Right Media and getting laughed on by every respected Expert.

Click to shrink...

I almost posted "when is this guy going on Alex Jones' podcast / website?", because that's where that shit belongs.

 

[nopressure]

I know we have seperate thread(s) for Sweden but I thought this interview (in english) with John Giesecke would be interesting for eveyone.
He is: "one of the world's most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO".

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy



Some of the points he is making:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a "by-product"
• The initial UK response, before the "180 degree U-turn", was better
• The Imperial College paper was "not very good" and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

I have no idea if he is right or what he is basing this on. It would be interesting here what other epidemilogists thinks about what he is saying.

Click to shrink...

This guy is a crackpot. Nothing in Italy suggests this was a "mild" diease. We've clearly seen, through our own prime minister, Covid-19 affects much more than just "vulnerable" people.

We don't have the power of hindsight right now and it makes sense for governments to follow policy that prepare for the worst case scenario. At the end of this outbreak, the world might declare this guy correct - doesn't mean his policy was the correct one still. It's stupid, inhuman and dangerous to leave places like London continuing as usual.

edit: it's also been pointed out by multiple experts we cannot guarantee "herd immunity" is possible because we don't know enough about Covid-19. Countries that follow such a strategy are risking killing a chunk of their population for nothing (albeit the risk is low).

 

[plow]

That guys points seem to miss some pretty important factors - like the fact that letting it go through society without mitigation completely destroys and cripples the health service of that country within a few weeks - which leads to many more deaths that you avoid when you spread out the impact of Covid.

Lets say there are, over a year, 200'000 people admitted to hospital as a result of car crashes and 1% die. Condense that number into a week and you're mortality rate doesn't stay at 1% - you're hospital system is overwhelmed and not only do all the car crash people just die out in the street so do thousands of other people with otherwise preventable / treatable illness.

He sounds like a moron honestly

Click to shrink...

Yeah like lets forget the fact hat the Medics in italy had to use the triage and had to choose the people they could threat based on the probability of success.
And this only after a few weeks after the first Case.

 

[GMM]

New numbers from Denmark with the changes since yesterday:

-346 deaths (+10)
-7242 cases (+169)
-317 currently admitted to hospitals (-33)
-87 in intensive care (-6)
-76 requiring respirators (+2)
-3847 recoveries (+458)

Source:

https://files.ssi.dk/COVID19-overvaagningsrapport-18042020-a8sg

 

[Wordballoons]

There should be a rule where only people with science degrees/medical degrees can give reports on studies, etc. Every asshole on my Facebook feed keeps giving their analysis of a study as if we should all care what the mechanic, middle management guy, etc. has to say about all this