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KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,984
It's true that the sample is not completely random or representative but I think it works pretty well. Since only "healthy" people go the number might actually be higher, although I could also imagine donors might pay more attention towards not getting infected/infecting others. It's difficult, but in regards to gender and age it should work and I think it can reasonably be used for an estimation.

I don't know if it's only healthy people though, maybe the translation is wrong, but the article links also to the collection of plasma from people who had it and they are cured by the same company/institute. It's not clear if those are also part of the study.
 

J-Skee

The Wise Ones
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,102
Been out of the loop for a while now. Watching GMA right now. Is Big Orange really going to announce a plan to re-open the country within the next couple of weeks? Seems like a terrible idea.

And these idiots protesting the lockdown... WTF?
 

Prophet Steve

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,177
I don't know if it's only healthy people though, maybe the translation is wrong, but the article links also to the collection of plasma from people who had it and they are cured by the same company/institute. It's not clear if those are also part of the study.

When donating blood you need to answer a lot of questions and cannot show symptoms. So if someone is/feels sick they cannot donate. But they might still be asymptomatic or have had it earlier.
 
Mar 29, 2018
7,078
Belgium is number 1!

417 new deaths, 127 in hospital and 289 in retirement homes. Total becomes 4857, which means we have passed the official Iran tally and that we become the highest deaths per million in the world.

Steep drop in hospital occupation though: 310 people entered the hospital, but 455 were discharged. Combined with the deaths there are now 206 less beds taken by Covid patients. In ICU there is a drop of 22 to 1182, which is about half of the capacity.
This crisis is powerfully displaying how much data matters in this age and how much data can be manipulated. Like, there's no way Iran's death rate data is accurate, and at the opposite end of the same Belgium is a small first world country that will be taking utmost care to ensure its data is accurate as possible.
 

Bowser

Member
Nov 7, 2017
2,814
I don't know the circumstances of each case but I have seen reports of testing within retirement homes without moving them to hospitals, every individual case tested counts regardless where they died. I assume that most people that died presumed of Covid without testing they did in retirement homes but that doesn't mean that you can mix figures. I hope that we are given both in the official reports if all regions report them.
That's true but only in some places. For example, Cantabria from the very beginning reported on hospital deaths + people who died outside of them.

El registro de exitus computa 96 decesos hospitalarios y 21 extrahospitalarios, con una edad media de 83 años. Además, 54 de los finados eran personas de residencias de mayores.


These total of 117 deaths are the ones reported by the Health Ministry.

On the other side, Catalonia only reported on hospital deaths. People who died at retirement homes were counted separately and only made it to the daily list of deaths if they were taken to hospital before dying.
 

uzipukki

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,722
Damn, in Finland there has now been 72 fatalities to this illness and of those dead, 48 have died in nursing homes. :(
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,984
When donating blood you need to answer a lot of questions and cannot show symptoms. So if someone is/feels sick they cannot donate. But they might still be asymptomatic or have had it earlier.


I think I didn't make myself understood. The article mentions in the first sentence that they (Saquin) looked at both blood and plasma donors. So my understanding is that the result combines both categories, "healthy" (blood donors) and "sick" (COVID-19 patients who are cured and donated plasma).
 

Phife Dawg

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,049
Well, my fiancée and I just made the tough decision to cancel our wedding in June.

We're both fucking devastated.
I feel for you. We are invited to 6 weddings this year, starting in may up to late august, I don't have much faith we will be able to attempt just one.

Tell your friend that we have over 30,000 deaths and that's WITH 90% of the country under lockdown. If everybody was just going about their normal business, going to theaters, and 50,000 people sporting events, then the death count would be FAR worse. We're talking in the millions.

COVID-19 has the sweet spot of being deadly, but not too deadly where it kills its host too quickly. But it's also highly contagious and can spread even in asymptomatic people, which isn't the case with the flu. So even though something may only have a 0.5% mortality rate among the general population, but if it has a spread rate of anywhere from 3-5 people per person then that 0.5% mortality rate is still going to kill a lot of people.

And what makes COVID-19 so dangerous compared to the flu is that we don't have a vaccine or confirmed medication that can treat symptoms. Our only defense against COVID-19 is to separate and hide. The flu does kill a lot of people annually, but we have the ability to protect the majority of the population, so it can never rise above a certain threshold. Also healthcare workers can get flu vaccines so they can safely treat patients themselves without risking death themselves. That's a huge difference, with COVID-19 healthcare workers are taking a huge risk because PPE is in limited supply, the disease is highly contagious and we still don't know a lot about how it spreads.
It's not only about the deaths directly associated with Covid19, if lots of people get sick at the same time (2 friends who had it were out for 3+ weeks and that was considered moderate symptoms) we seriously endanger our essential services (police, healthcare, energy etc.), which will lead to major problems and people dying.
 

Prophet Steve

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,177
I think I didn't make myself understood. The article mentions in the first sentence that they (Saquin) looked at both blood and plasma donors. So my understanding is that the result combines both categories, "healthy" (blood donors) and "sick" (COVID-19 patients who are cured and donated plasma).

Oh right, I get it. The article makes no distinction between blood or plasma donors. It does mention that it is not representative though.

It does say that researchers knew that a number of people did not have antibodies before because they already had samples of them (collecting blood donations). That information is probably useful to estimate the infection rate, but does not affect the composition of people tested.
 

Kyougar

Cute Animal Whisperer
Member
Nov 3, 2017
9,354
It doesn't matter for at-risk people that there are hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic people who already recovered from Covid and the "real" CFR is something like 0,6%. It ISN'T 0,6% for at-risk people. It is >10% dependent on the risk factor and age.
 

RocknRola

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,195
Portugal
Portugal:



18841 confirmed cases.
+750 since yesterday. 4.1% growth.
629 deaths.
+30 since yesterday. 5.0% growth.
493 recoveries.
+110 since yesterday. -- biggest number of recoveries in a single day for us.

1302 people hospitalised.
+102 since yesterday. **
229 in the ICU.
+21 since yesterday. **

** - Fairly decent increases since yesterday. Kinda worried we might be on another uptick trend this week in these particular numbers :s
 

New Donker

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,355
Does the CDC's death estimates of the flu for a given year only include those that die during the 10-15 week flu season? I am in a debate with an idiot associate of a relative that is spouting right wing talking points of how the danger of COVID was one big hoax and we locked up for nothing. Oh and most of COVID deaths are fake news because they actually died of other causes....

I know I should not bother engaging people like this but I want to at least try to make an honest push back against misinformation that is extremely dangerous.

Don't argue logic with this guy. Here's what I do, and it shuts them down immediately.

If covid was one big host organized by the "global elites," Trump is either in on it or he's a weak leader.

Then press your friend, ask him which one trump is: A global elite or a weak leader.

Wrap it all up by questioning why he either voted for a global elite or weak leader.
If your experience is like mine, you'll set him off nicely.
 

Johnny956

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,928
based on my wife's hospital census it seems like we're past the peak in our city. In the past week less patients from covid and less on ventilators. I do wonder when elective procedures will open back up. Hospital is around 40% capacity. Her group is telling her as soon as electives open back up it's going to be nonstop overtime to make up for the backlog
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,508
Mmm, uncle taken to the hospital. He has severe physical and mental handicaps, so he was living in an assisted care facility. They have been in quarantine for four weeks already due to other patient being a suspected case.
 

darkwing

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,949
looks like we have a case in our city of a relapse/reactivation, patient was declared recovered after 2 negative tests, 24 hours apart after 2 weeks in the hospital

then a few days later, got weaker, patient is 70+ years old with underlying conditions, some said cancer, became positive again after a retest yesterday

:(
 

Statux

Banned
Jan 13, 2020
711
So, the Shock Doctrine cycle starts again. Everyone, be vigilant about all the fuckery that your beloved Commander In Chief is fast-tracking right now. We've seen this time after time: Trump Goes Full 'Shock Doctrine' As Pandemic Rages

The White House chose the week the United States became the epicenter of a historic pandemic to virtually stop policing big polluters, privatize a bedrock federal food safety job, advance a mining road through a pristine swath of northern Alaska and revive a regulatory rollback so difficult to defend that the Trump administration abandoned the effort last year at the peak of a high-profile fight.
 

Phife Dawg

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,049
On one hand this is great news. Our deathrate would only be around 0.6%.

On the other, 3% after more than a month is not a lot... Herd immunity will take ages.
Yeah, "natural" herd immunity will take a long time or overflow the essential systems. We can only hope for a quick vaccine/treatment.

She better reign in Laschet, my brother in law is currently scheduled to go back to school teaching, he knows now what to an unspecified number of kids....
Well they have three days to make the school ready to obey hygiene. So build functioning toilets, buy sanitizer and soap, PPE, organize social distancing etc. Seems plenty... /s

Laschet is just thinking about his national profile, so he doesn't want to "fall in line" but stand out among the PMs. He and Spahn really are a match made in heaven, lol.
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,508
FInally managed to be seen by a doctor, oxygen levels are fine, so I just got a prescription for an inhaler to help. Still no test.
 

GMM

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,481
Great to see those negative numbers, and a nice increase in recoveries!

The number of people admitted to hospitals have fallen by around 180 in the last two weeks and the recoveries greatly outnumber the recently discovered cases, so Denmark is on a very solid path unless we fuck it up and have a resurgence following people becoming more lax with social distancing as the country opens up a bit more.
 

Addi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,226
Norway is releasing a COVID app today. It tracks people's movements and how close they are to others via GPS and bluetooth.
If someone tests positive for COVID, they'll notify everyone that person has met. Right now, the first phase is simply gathering data, it will start sending out
notifications in May. The governement has been questioned about privacy issues, but went on with it anyway. Data will be deleted after 30 days and the app will be deleted in December.
 

Serpens007

Well, Tosca isn't for everyone
Moderator
Oct 31, 2017
8,127
Chile
Chilean Health Minister now says that recovering from Covi19 gives you at least 1 year of inmunity...
 
Nov 13, 2017
9,537
606 deaths in NY today. That's a big drop from yesterday and the lowest in the past week I believe. To think that the deaths of 606 people would be considered a sign of things getting better. I can't imagine how their families must be feeling.
 

Fractology

Member
Oct 28, 2017
437
I feel for you. We are invited to 6 weddings this year, starting in may up to late august, I don't have much faith we will be able to attempt just one.

Yeah...my fiancée and I have our wedding booked for August 8th and we've been on the fence about cancelling. Basically had to set a "deadline" to make a decision by end of May at the latest. Honestly, it's not looking good. We also had a great honeymoon planned for Europe right afterwards. It'll really suck to miss all of it and have to wait another year but what can you do...?
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,329
www.newsweek.com

Exclusive: Secret Military Task Force Prepares to Secure the U.S. Capital

Behind the scenes, JTF-NCR is responsible for defending Washington and facilitating "continuity of government"--including moving civil and military leaders to secret locations if the order were given to evacuate the city.

If this is true I don't see how there can be much talk of opening anything back up when this is going on in Trump's backyard.
 

Secretofmateria

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,424
I feel so fucking angry. Angry that things were allowed to get this bad, angry that our leadership failed us, angry that we werent prepared. I feel so angry i could throw up, i just want to fucking punch something
 

konka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,856
www.newsweek.com

Exclusive: Secret Military Task Force Prepares to Secure the U.S. Capital

Behind the scenes, JTF-NCR is responsible for defending Washington and facilitating "continuity of government"--including moving civil and military leaders to secret locations if the order were given to evacuate the city.

If this is true I don't see how there can be much talk of opening anything back up when this is going on in Trump's backyard.

As someone who lives in DC that feels a bit sensationalized. DC has had a fairly flat plateau of new cases for a while now and the hospitals are far from overwhelmed. I'm not sure where this surge is supposed to come from seeing as stay at home has been issued for a month now. But maybe I'm just optimistic.
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,329
As someone who lives in DC that feels a bit sensationalized. DC has had a fairly flat plateau of new cases for a while now and the hospitals are far from overwhelmed. I'm not sure where this surge is supposed to come from seeing as stay at home has been issued for a month now. But maybe I'm just optimistic.
Yeah, that's why I said "If this is true" as I haven't heard much about a possibility of this happening...

Federal officials in the nation's capital expect a New York-like epidemic in the District, Maryland and Virginia, one that could potentially cripple the government.

...as someone who lives close to this region. When I first read it I thought it was an old artcle but it was just published a couple hours ago and also mentions the 30-day extension which I guess was announced yesterday.
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
Italy's update:
+3786 new positive cases (total 168941)
+525 new deaths (total 22170)
+2072 new recoveries (total 40164)
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
61k tests

Guess that's not too bad.
And the ICU numbers went down from 3079 to 2936, it seems that they decrease around 100 each day.
Out of those 3.7k positive cases, most of them are in Lombardia (941) and Piemonte (879). For all the other regions, there were increments with respect to yesterday numbers, but smaller.
 

JetmanJay

Member
Nov 1, 2017
3,500
So I had 3 coworkers who were sick as fuck and had "presumed positive" monikers for COVID-19 places on them. 3 weeks later, as they have no symptoms any more, and they just now got tested as "Negative".
The current tests don't show if you HAD Corona Virus, just if you currently HAVE it right?

Because of course this will be used against the rest of us in a "see it's always been safe here, this virus is a joke" sort of way I feel.