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So a couple of things:
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.covid19.healthdata.org
how accurate are these numbers? it was showing a total of 100k deaths a few days ago down to 80k on monday and 60k since today. That seems to be showing that the problem is getting smaller?
1. They are only projecting deaths for the first waive. They are not projecting any deaths after June 1st effectively. So they are NOT projecting total deaths.
2. Their numbers have been off for some states. Example - Colorado is CURRENTLY using 4 times as many ventilators as they project peak use in Colorado.
3. Poor testing data is being fed into them from many states
4. It assumes full social distancing which is questionable across most the country.
unfortunately they are shared by the hate house and other news organizations without properly explaining what they are doing
And their new estimates are based on a model that assumes social distancing through August which is in direct conflict with their plan to re-open earlier than that. Wouldn't listen to anything the WH has to say.
Influenza is unique among viruses in that it has 8 segments on its genome. That's why it's able to swap genetic segments with other influenza strains.
SARS-CoV-2 has a single strand, combined with a proofreader gene. That's makes it a lot harder for it to change. It'll mutate, like all viruses do, but it's mutations will be minor.
It doesn't need to mutate to be more infectious since it already is.
Mass testing and tracing is basically a pipe dream for the US. Guaranteed we'll attempt reopening without these crucial procedures in place. We're gonna fuck it up bad.
I mean office's workers. If you reopen offices you will need to reopen restaurants at least.
An update on my uncle. It began with a fever, two days later hospitalisation. Two days later ICU. One day later on ventilator. Two days later in a medically induced coma. Two days later (last night) he developed a blod clot in his lungs. It's going very, very badly :-(
All of this began with attending a birthday party (all participants are sick now). So please, even though you want to see friends and family for Easter celebrations - DON'T.
DO not go to church.
Stay the fuck away from your grandparents!
Use facetime or other video related systems if you want to see your elderly relatives. Call them, text them, write them regular emails. But don't see them. They might be sad, you might be too. But it's better than losing them.
All of this began with attending a birthday party (all participants are sick now). So please, even though you want to see friends and family for Easter celebrations - DON'T.
DO not go to church.
Stay the fuck away from your grandparents!
Use facetime or other video related systems if you want to see your elderly relatives. Call them, text them, write them regular emails. But don't see them. They might be sad, you might be too. But it's better than losing them.
How many people were at that gather if you don't mind me asking?
Testing in Denmark has showed the following regarding infection distances:
Breath/talking: up to 2 metres (6 feet)
Coughing: Up to 6 metres (18 feet)
Sneezing: Up to 8-9 metres (24-26 feet)
No wonder this shit is so contagious. Every time you step into a room with someone who has it, the risk factor is very high.
Breath/talking: up to 2 metres (6 feet)
Coughing: Up to 6 metres (18 feet)
Sneezing: Up to 8-9 metres (24-26 feet)
No wonder this shit is so contagious. Every time you step into a room with someone who has it, the risk factor is very high.
I'm so sorry :(
And meanwhile my neighbors have their son his wife and grandchilds over, and they enjoy life in the garden eating cake, drinking coffee. Some will only understand how serious this shit is when one of them gets it and ends up in the hospital.
Fuck
11 adults and 9 children. Actually the 8 months old baby seems to be the only one who did not get sick (luckily).
The sad thing is that some people won't catch it and thus think their behavior was right no matter how potentially harmful it was.
Netherlands has seen its first decrease in current Intensive Care patients and regular patients since the start of the outbreak, the amount of patients currently in an intensive care unit dropped by 16 compared to yesterday, amount of patients in regular care dropped from over 2800 to over 2700.
Looks like this is terrible advice if you do it at home and you live with other people:
Does JK Rowling’s breathing technique cure the coronavirus? No, it could help spread it
Controlled coughing can help people with cystic fibrosis, under supervision and in hospital. But when done at home, it could help spread the coronavirus.
theconversation.com
Some good news from the Netherlands: for the first time the number of patients in the ICU has dropped (-16) since yesterday. The numbers of daily number of new ICU patients has been dropping the last few days, but this is the first time the number actually decreased.
We don't know what the Spain government meant, neither the exact details. Is probably an early estimate and not definitive at all.
Ah you beat me to it. Good news nonetheless, really shows that what we're doing is working. Hope people will take this as a reason to continue as we are now.
It might also be one factor of Asian differences... the number of people with glasses is quite high.
Also, genetics is in action, the prevalence of loss of smell and taste is much higher in european population, and specially women, and same for skin conditions european doctors report (urticaria, red toes, red strokes on slightly swollen tongue, light red speckles on the skin etc) .
That's very good news ! crossing fingers it continues amplified in the next days.
So that explains that as well. It is not the first time I got a skin issue after a cold infection.
Similar to Colorado, they said PA would have 28 deaths yesterday with an overall range of 6-62. PA reported 78 deaths.
I see. That's certainly possible as we are already doing it here in my state in Germany. However no child care means I am in home-office. Restaurants are already open, just not for consumption on the spot, only take-away. Same for canteens. It seems we could still flatten the curve with it.
SCMP News on Twitter
“Coronavirus: South Korea capital Seoul orders bars, clubs to close https://t.co/S2IwojRng7”
twitter.com
This is Madrid's subway service on rush hour most of the days (not this last month obviously) thanks to the general mismanagement and funding cuts from the Community of Madrid right wing government. Now put 2 and 2 together.
Can we stop discounting credible scientific research because disagree with the results?
They also make it quite clear with the caveats especially around social distancing in their FAQ.
Welp, its official, I'm cutting my family off over this shit.
They're not taking it seriously, so I want nothing to do with them anymore.
My dad dropped the ots just the flu crap and then called me an authoritarian when I called him on it.
If they want to be fucking fascists because I'm the only liberal in this house, they can kiss my ass.
I want nothing to so with them anymore, nothing.
They're not taking it seriously, so I want nothing to do with them anymore.
My dad dropped the ots just the flu crap and then called me an authoritarian when I called him on it.
If they want to be fucking fascists because I'm the only liberal in this house, they can kiss my ass.
I want nothing to so with them anymore, nothing.
Yeah but you can feel the tension in the air of people who want it to be over. I have a bad feeling people will think too easily about this and i fear people will ignore the rules pretty soon. Until now it all seemed a fun experiment for most people. But now the fun has faded and the sun is coming out i can see people doing stupid things again.
We really have to keep reminding each other to keep these rules at heart and keep taking this serious. We can do this but we also must find ways to keep convincing ignorant, stupid and selfish people. For weeks and months.
I'm very sorry to hear that it had to come to that.
I'm curious. If they still believe it's just the flu, what is their reaction to Trump publically acknowledging it is real? He's been pressured by "the deep state" or some shit like that?
...you live in their house though? Maybe just agree not to talk about the virus stuff, rather than going to war with people you live with.
Pretty much.
My dad has basically turned into a hardcore authoritarian fascist and anything that anyone says opposite to his views is 100% wrong, end of discussion.
He's turned my brother into one as well.
They're downplaying this whole thing because it doesn't jive with their political views.
As much as I hate to say it at this point, I hope they get it. Might make them realize the severity of the situation.
But I'm done with them. I'm currently packing my shit and heading back to South Dakota and I'm cutting them out of my life for good.
Chile Update:
- 430 new cases in the last 24 hours, reaching 5.546 total
- 5 new deaths, 48 in total
- 362 hospitalized, 316 with ventilators, 57 critic
New cases still at 6 to 8% increments daily. Death rate went from 0.8% to 0.9%
- 430 new cases in the last 24 hours, reaching 5.546 total
- 5 new deaths, 48 in total
- 362 hospitalized, 316 with ventilators, 57 critic
New cases still at 6 to 8% increments daily. Death rate went from 0.8% to 0.9%
Every morning I have to listen to my dad read his political stuff, which pisses him off, which then means we can't talk to him about anything, political or not, without him flying off the handle.
He brings it on himself and takes it out on us, yet I'm not allowed to voice my opinion without it turning into an argument.
That's bullshit.
He's an authoritarian fascist asshole and I want nothing to do with him anymore. I came back home to get help, and they've only made my problem worse.
SCMP News on Twitter
“Coronavirus: South Korea capital Seoul orders bars, clubs to close https://t.co/S2IwojRng7”
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't SK another one of those countries that "had the virus under control and surprised scientist" a few weeks ago like Japan? It seems like everyone is slowly figuring out you can't actually control this beast.
Sounds like you are on your way out, but some advice for the future:
Have you tried a less aggressive approach? I have family members that were generally ignorant/insensitive and it took YEARS to change their behavior. You can't go to war on every conversation, there's a nuance to changing someone's mindset they've had for decades. The second they feel attacked they clam up and resort back to conspiracies/bullshit or "I'm just kidding." You have to correct their behavior over time, make sure not to reinforce anything, and don't ATTACK.
You aren't going to change a life long conservative into a liberal over a bowl of Cheerios.
I think Taiwan is the best country to have dealt with it
SCMP News on Twitter
“Coronavirus: South Korea capital Seoul orders bars, clubs to close https://t.co/S2IwojRng7”
Yeah bars and nightclubs - nightlife in general - is pretty much finished at this point. Booze+social setting is about the worst place you can be in this situation. I just don't see bars reopening for a long, long time and there won't be many left whenever they are given the green light.
You are correct. It's why as people keep discussing "opening up" in a few weeks, I can see how that would be possible. Even if the US government had a cohesive testing and tracing plan in place, it would be difficult to fully open up. As the government is now, no way that will work.
It's more likely they are just being very aggresive.
They are still a success story in all this.
Sure, but that's what we're doing. Not a day goes by where we're not reminded, every bit of news (good or bad) comes with the notion that all of it goes to waste if we ease up too soon. Police are handing out fines, cities close major gathering locations etc. etc.
I have good hope we can push through this, but remaining vigilant is of course essential.
They're using FALSE data for multiple states and countries. This is about as credible as trumps press conferences.
Every model is as good as the data you're gonna feed to it. In this case it's trash.
It seems like the virus is really deadly here. Probably the lack of medicine and treatments are causing this. Barely any recoveries worries me.