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Deleted member 14459

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,874
Norway after several days of falling hospitalization and ICU cases today announced that preschools will open on April 20th, on April 27th grade 1-4 will open, the ambition is all schools open before June, business that have been ordered to close to openbwithin April, ban on travel to summer cottages willbe lifted on April 20th. R0 estimate now 0.8. Expect Austria, Denmark Germany to follow suit, maybe Finland.
 

Carnby

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,238
Thanks for the updates everyday, I can't always watch the stream. How's the apex prediction?

Well, in short, deaths are up, discharges are up, and new cases are down.

Cuomo emphasized how this is going much better than the 1918 pandemic because of social distancing. He is currently working on regional plans gradually returning to "normal" life. It won't be a light switch. And the key to a successful return is testing and continuing social distancing.
 

Serpens007

Well, Tosca isn't for everyone
Moderator
Oct 31, 2017
8,129
Chile
Chile reached 5.116 cases, 43 deaths, everything keeps increasing. New cases per day are stable between 300-400 per day, which could mean our test capactiy is full

Despite that, Government will liftquarantine in *some* areas of *some* districts on monday, while adding *some* areas of *other* districts this thrusday.

It's confusing and we don't understand what the hell the govt is thinking
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,932
the Netherlands
Thanks for the updates everyday, I can't always watch the stream. How's the apex prediction?
Don't think that was mentioned today, but Cuomo did say they saw a flattening or even a possible plateau of the curve. And obviously while those new cases and deaths every day are awful it's a good beginning of getting them down, 8147 new cases is pretty good at this stage I'd say although I'm hoping there's not just a bigger than normal amount of cases which have yet to be registered.
 

Kandinsky

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,824
Chile reached 5.116 cases, 43 deaths, everything keeps increasing. New cases per day are stable between 300-400 per day, which could mean our test capactiy is full

Despite that, Government will liftquarantine in *some* areas of *some* districts on monday, while adding *some* areas of *other* districts this thrusday.

It's confusing and we don't understand what the hell the govt is thinking
It is so irritating listening to that clown babbling about the whole thing while clapping like a moron.
 

Sectorseven

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,560
White House adviser Kudlow suggests economy could be open in next four-to-eight weeks U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Tuesday said President Donald Trump is mulling reopening the economy in regions of the country unscathed by the coronavirus outbreak.

www.marketwatch.com

Trump looking at reopening parts of the country unscathed by coronavirus, Mnuchin says

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Tuesday said President Donald Trump is talking to his advisors about ways to reopen ‘parts of the country.’
 

Serpens007

Well, Tosca isn't for everyone
Moderator
Oct 31, 2017
8,129
Chile
It is so irritating listening to that clown babbling about the whole thing while clapping like a moron.

I really want to know what the Advisors are saying. Last week they said the Capital should expand it's quarantine and the government lifted in Independencia. What did they say now? I am really open to understand WHY, but I can't. I want to know what the real experts say
 

UnknownSpirit

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,150

Mixen

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
207
Looks like Sweden following the UK led to some great results.

Sweden has never followed UK:s lead, this is a misconception.

The numbers for Sweden may look bad without context but it's not that bad.
It's seems like the social distancing here is having a big effect and both the death numbers and ICU numbers have been pretty steady for the last week. The health care system is also holding up so far (which is the the point of "flattening the curve"). This is without any hard lockdown. Most schools, resturants and stores are open and life is pretty much normal here.

The problem for Sweden seems to be that the infections has spread to alot of nursery homes and killing alot of people there especially in the Stockholm area. The focus has to be to better protect the elderly.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,932
the Netherlands
Do we have testing numbers for like the last 5 - 7 days in NY?
Found it. Note on this graph when it for example says April 3rd they are the numbers we got on April 4th: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-DailyTracker?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n
April 1st: 18,031 of which 8,669 positive
April 2nd: 21,555 of which 10,482 positive
April 3rd: 23,101 of which 10,841 positive
April 4th: 18,659 of which 8,327 positive
April 5th: 18,531 of which 8,658 positive
April 6th (today's numbers): ??? of which 8,147 positive

So yeah, there's actually been a dip in tests.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,321
Found it. Note on this graph when it for example says April 3rd they are the numbers we got on April 4th: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-DailyTracker?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n
April 1st: 18,031 of which 8,669 positive
April 2nd: 21,555 of which 10,482 positive
April 3rd: 23,101 of which 10,841 positive
April 4th: 18,659 of which 8,327 positive
April 5th: 18,531 of which 8,658 positive
April 6th (today's numbers): ??? of which 8,147 positive

So yeah, there's actually been a dip in tests.
Thanks, looks like the numbers are way too low for them to catch enough new infections to make a valid statement of this being a peak or not.

I would've hoped they'd be by 20k daily tests by now.
 

Deleted member 14459

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,874
Sweden has never followed UK:s lead, this is a misconception.

The numbers for Sweden may look bad without context but it's not that bad.
It's seems like the social distancing here is having a big effect and both the death numbers and ICU numbers have been pretty steady for the last week. The health care system is also holding up so far (which is the the point of "flattening the curve"). This is without any hard lockdown. Most schools, resturants and stores are open and life is pretty much normal here.

The problem for Sweden seems to be that the infections has spread to alot of nursery homes and killing alot of people there especially in the Stockholm area. The focus has to be to better protect the elderly.

Your R0 is 1.8. You had your highest death# for one day today. So you, unlike Norway, are not riding a flat curve. You are on the death# double every third day curve. There is "context" to every single death count, you are not a statistical exception - this is the misconception.
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
Italy's update:
+3039 new positive cases (total 135586)
+604 new deaths (total 17127)
+1555 new recoveries (total 24392)
 

Cake Boss

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,068
www.thetelegram.com

China reports no new coronavirus deaths as cases decline | SaltWire

By Lusha Zhang and Ryan Woo BEIJING (Reuters) - Mainland China reported on Tuesday no coronavirus deaths for the first time since the pandemic began and a ...

press-x-to-doubt-la-noir-original-meme-template.jpg
 

KingKong

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,503
about half the people at the grocery store are wearing masks and everyones avoiding each other so that's good. the weird part is that only about half the staff are wearing masks but it should be store policy
 

plow

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,650
Italy's update:
+3039 new positive cases (total 135586)
+604 new deaths (total 17127)
+1555 new recoveries (total 24392)

Wow! Talking about not going sub 4000 Last Week. Just dropped 1000 cases in two days this is huge huge news. Here is hoping we reach sub 3000 till end of the week.
 

Azerach

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,196
Saw this being passed around at work, is it a reliable resource? In Ohio its predicting peak hospital resource use in 1 day and peak deaths in 5 days, which seems surprisingly optimistic.
covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
How does the uncertainty go down over time? Like it reaches max uncertainty a month from now and then its somehow certain that on june 1st in every country this will be gone. No one should use that site as a source.
 

Prelude

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,558
Italy's update:
+3039 new positive cases (total 135586)
+604 new deaths (total 17127)
+1555 new recoveries (total 24392)
We're getting to the point where the "perceived" data is getting kinda ridiculous and probably dangeorus compared to the real data. Are they seriously gonna claim it's only 800 new infections today? Oh boy.
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
Wow! Talking about not going sub 4000 Last Week. Just dropped 1000 cases in two days this is huge huge news. Here is hoping we reach sub 3000 till end of the week.
Just as additional information, 33713 tests were carried out for these results.

Today media will present the lowest increment of actual positive cases since I don't when, +800. Unfortunately, I fear it will be again reported as increment of positive cases, and this could lead people to misbehave just before Easter, if they think that everything is finishing.
I hope that soon we will reach a "negative increment" for actual positive cases, and we will see how it will be handled.
 

Carnby

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,238
How does the uncertainty go down over time? Like it reaches max uncertainty a month from now and then its somehow certain that on june 1st in every country this will be gone. No one should use that site as a source.

COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020

A team of 100+ researchers that was established ten years ago in association with Washington University, and no one should be using it as a source?
 

plow

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,650
Just as additional information, 33713 tests were carried out for these results.

Today media will present the lowest increment of actual positive cases since I don't when, +800. Unfortunately, I fear it will be again reported as increment of positive cases, and this could lead people to misbehave just before Easter, if they think that everything is finishing.
I hope that soon we will reach a "negative increment" for actual positive cases, and we will see how it will be handled.

Salvini asking to open the Churches on easter isn't helping either. Here is hoping people will see what kind of shit person he is.

La Stampa at least is reporting the right number:

Scendono ancora i nuovi contagi, oggi 3.039, circa 550 meno di ieri.
 

metalslimer

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
A team of 100+ researchers that was established ten years ago in association with Washington University, and no one should be using it as a source?

People should be using it but the problem is that people keep using it as some kind of gospel as what will happen in a months time when trying to project past a week is very difficult. Also most places are not even close to full social distancing so it starts to fall apart when someone tries saying this is what we should expect given that projection
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
We're getting to the point where the "perceived" data is getting kinda ridiculous and probably dangeorus compared to the real data. Are they seriously gonna claim it's only 800 new infections today? Oh boy.
I was writing the same you wrote!
I totally agree with you, an increment of 800 will be perceived as the end is really near, when it isn't at all.
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
Salvini asking to open the Churches on easter isn't helping either. Here is hoping people will see what kind of shit person he is.

La Stampa at least is reporting the right number:
La Stampa correctly reported it in the previous days, too. But I am mostly worried about the main TV newscasts, that are the main source of information for most of the people.
About Salvini, I think that his proposal speaks for itself..
 

plow

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,650
La Stampa correctly reported it in the previous days, too. But I am mostly worried about the main TV newscasts, that are the main source of information for most of the people.
About Salvini, I think that his proposal speaks for itself..

Ah that what i was going to ask. Newspaper seem to report the "right" numbers. But i guess you are right, the TV Channels are the main Source of Information.
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
Ah that what i was going to ask. Newspaper seem to report the "right" numbers. But i guess you are right, the TV Channels are the main Source of Information.
This is the current headline of repubblica.it, the most visited news site in Italy:
Coronavirus, i nuovi dati in Italia: in calo il numero di nuovi casi (880) e di malati ricoverati (3.039). Borrelli: "Incremento più basso dal 10 marzo scorso"
As I feared it reports 880 as "new cases".
And 3039 as new hospitalized people...
 

alex.magnus

Member
Oct 28, 2017
405
I was writing the same you wrote!
I totally agree with you, an increment of 800 will be perceived as the end is really near, when it isn't at all.

I get what you are all saying and I hope people won't be that stupid to lower their guard, but still it is a positive result and I believe that after so much pain we should at least be happy about the new numbers, without spiraling in "what ifs"
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
I get what you are all saying and I hope people won't be that stupid to lower their guard, but still it is a positive result and I believe that after so much pain we should at least be happy about the new numbers, without spiraling in "what ifs"
Of course, there results are positive and I hope that in the following days the trend will continue. But we must not make vain all the sacrifices.
 

Gpsych

Member
May 20, 2019
2,895
Man, death count in the U.S. will be huge today. Figured that the weekend numbers were unreliable as per usual.