Yeah, that's what gives me pause. Some areas within states are doing better than others. *stares at the conservative Colorado counties AGAIN*
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Yeah, that's what gives me pause. Some areas within states are doing better than others. *stares at the conservative Colorado counties AGAIN*
This is definitely the "light at the end of the tunnel Trump was referring to". I guess the good news is we will know very soon if these are valid predictions.
Yeah, I know. I'm just really dreading the numbers we're gonna see in two weeks due to so many states (and individual people in other states) half-assing social distancing policies.
IHME projections got updated. Florida peak got updated from first week of May to mid April. Like the post below me
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.covid19.healthdata.org
I wish it could give me hope. But it assumes maximum social distancing, which even the best prepared states like WA and CA are NOT doing. Which means the numbers are gonna be bad in those states and FAR FAR worse in states that were late to lock down and still not doing a full enforcement of it.
It's a fine thing to look at for a 'what could be' situation.
But when you have places like Florida leaving beaches and churches open with easter coming soon, that shelter in place order might as well not exist for the purpose of predicting how things will be.
I think you are reading the results wrong, because of places like Alabama, which does not have a stay at home order is faring much worse compared to somewhere like Washington in the study/projections. They are taking into account the states and their actions.
Edit: and those numbers are the middle point of a range, which they explain In their FAQ and Notes section.
I've seen this team of scientists and researchers and their data constantly being torn down or dismissed. This isn't some amateur hour blog, it's kind of obnoxious to see.
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it says right on the top
and the only way the numbers drop like that is if everyone is properly social distancing, which isn't remotely happening.
You can take these numbers as a best case scenerio, and if you want to believe that will be how it will be feel free.
but there is no logical reason to believe that these numbers are remotely accurate given what we have seen from other countries and the state a lot of these places are already in.
for example they are projecting only 6770 total deaths for Florida.
while it's over 15k for new york. and quite frankly given how Florida has handled this it's going to be much worse than New York.
the study is adjusted for when they started the order and where they were at when they started, but it assumes a 100% shelter at home following in general.
Edit: so I don't double post. sounds like Japan will be shutting down soon https://www.animenewsnetwork.com/ne...o-declare-state-of-emergency-in-japan/.158325
it says right on the top
and the only way the numbers drop like that is if everyone is properly social distancing, which isn't remotely happening.
You can take these numbers as a best case scenerio, and if you want to believe that will be how it will be feel free.
but there is no logical reason to believe that these numbers are remotely accurate given what we have seen from other countries and the state a lot of these places are already in.
for example they are projecting only 6770 total deaths for Florida.
while it's over 15k for new york. and quite frankly given how Florida has handled this it's going to be much worse than New York.
the study is adjusted for when they started the order and where they were at when they started, but it assumes a 100% shelter at home following in general.
While I do believe things here in FL will get much worse, the fact that in Florida outside of maybe miami you don't have people living on top of each other by the millions in such small land areas, I just don't think it will get as bad as NY.
Its alarming to see how France is quickly catching up with the US , Italy and Spain in number of deaths
Holy smokes the curve for Ohio on the IHME website. Just about nonexistent. Says peak resource use will be in two days, and peak deaths in six days. All thanks to Governor DeWine taking this seriously from the jump.
It's going to be the difference between people taking it seriously, and not taking it seriously.
You are right given the population density of areas like NYC NY should have been much worse than Florida.
But Florida is run by a moron making it even slower to improperly social distance let alone properly.
Easter is april 12th, with how things are currently being run in Florida the churches will be packed.
Combine that with already poor interactions for weeks, and the older demographic I'm fully expecting Florida to reach around 1k deaths per day in the second half of April unless something drastically changes. Which with Trump going back to how we need to open things back up... seems unlikely.
I'm really hoping I'm wrong, but I really don't see a reason to treat Florida as they are remotely sheltering in place for predictions.
Lots of states, including WA and CA have done a lot better than their model predicted so far, which I guess should mean they're doing the social distancing thing where they need to. For whatever reason, most of the adjustments upward seem to just come from New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Massachusetts, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky.
The data could be wrong, but if it's right then it's working so far for most of the country. Problem is the problem spots are getting hit really, really hard.
Is there a Link? My county cases has been increasing with only 2 deaths so far.
Edit: never mind I just saw you mention the IHME
The PA estimates were essentially cut in half in the new IHME update. I don't believe it. However, I am seeing less people out, starting to see masks since Wolf recommenced them at the end of the week, stores are definitely making changes with maximum occupancy and sanitizing chceckouts after each customer.
Yeah, DeWine has been straight up amazing during this. With early closings and stay-at-home orders (especially the Arnold, though I'm not sure the hand he played in that), daily updates with Q&A covering a broad range of topics and worries, listening to his medical staff and having Acton part of the daily briefing, and directly opposing some of the things Trump has said, he's handling this perfectly so far. Granted, we are lucky because we don't have the major international hubs like New York, California, and Michigan, and our major world destination in Cedar Point was for the winter, but that doesn't take away how well he is handling the problem at hand.
Cool cool cool apparently being laid-off due to not being deemed an essential worker doesn't get me unemployment benefits after all.
totally cool, awesome, fantastic.
totally cool, awesome, fantastic.
That's nuts bro. I feel like a lot of red state are gonna be looking like this in a few weeks.
Being in rural areas aren't going to help at all once the disease becomes rampant. For example, one of the worst hit areas in Georgia is a rural community. The other problem is that being in low population dense areas give people a false sense of security so any outbreaks have a chance of being really bad. Couple that with the lack of ICUs in rural hospitals, and we will probably start seeing horrible numbers within the week.
"the economy is so good we need to beg strangers for money to pay for medical and funeral expenses, but thank god Trump saved us from socialism!"
I feel bad for her family but not her. Thousands of people are now dying from this and her stupidity got her killed and could possibly kill others. Her brand of idiocy will continue to kill thousands more for months.
It would help if many newspapers and the executive weren't using it as the authoritative truth. In any case, the model seems to assume that the death rate will fall to near zero by June, which seems unrealistic.
once resources are freed up and treatments emerge in the summer I think it's reasonable to expect death rate to fall significantly
This might be temporary but the UW simulation says Washington state is past it's peak in deaths, and is predicting far fewer deaths than originally projected.
That will probably all change this week.
That will probably all change this week.
How is the general US supply chain looking for good and essential items? Is there a threats of that being disrupted in a major way?
My humanity has suffered these last four years of the insane conservatism of the GOP/Faux news death cult reflected by a lack of empathy for these morons. I have zero empathy for her and her family still trying to hide the truth but deleting mentions of covid in both GoFundMe and Facebook. Thankfully the original posts have been saved.
I don't even know what to say to this. It's just sad and pathetic. People have bought into the GOP cult of Trump so hard that they deny reality. True brainwashing...and it costs them everything. And the irony is bitter.
food will be fine. don't know about medical supplies in the short term but people are ramping up. I don't expect anything essential to be affected too much
issue is china and their slowdown in getting parts to US
New York will peak in 3 days? I thought we were way out from that.IHME projections got updated. Florida peak got updated from first week of May to mid April.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
"You want it to be one way. You want it to be one way..... but it's the OTHER way" - Marlo Stansfield
Sure wish I could get a bit more hand sanitizer for trips to go out and get food... They are back in stock on Amazon, but only allow sales to hospitals and government agencies. I really don't want to scrounge stores to find anything. Just rationing what I have, for now...
Man, if this is actually real...wow.
It really is fascinating how stupid some people can be. I really don't know how she made it this far in life. I feel bad for her family.
Don't you know? The media controls everything! A handful of news corporations in which the most deadly implement of war in their possession is probably Murdoch's old man fart can cause entire governments of major, developed and powerful nations to unleash a deadly disease upon their own populace for.... reasons!!!
What reason? SSshshhh!!! They're listening!
*Crawls into a tinfoil bed with tinfoil blankets inside a tinfoil bedroom, wearing tinfoil jammies*
(PS: But seriously though, these people's obsession with the media is weirdly intriguing. Why media, and not some other industry?)
(PPS: The obvious reason is obviously because the media built a profession and industry on trying to question things and hold leaders accountable. What better scapegoat for a fascist leader than the group of people whose job is to question you?)
OP
OP
Surgeon General: This week will be like a 'Pearl Harbor' and '9/11' moment
The US surgeon general said this week is going to be the "hardest and the saddest" for "most Americans' lives," describing the upcoming grim period of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States as a "Pearl Harbor moment" and a "9/11 moment."
www.cnn.com
Surgeon General: This week will be like a 'Pearl Harbor' and '9/11' moment
The US surgeon general said this week is going to be the "hardest and the saddest" for "most Americans' lives," describing the upcoming grim period of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States as a "Pearl Harbor moment" and a "9/11 moment."
So... they are past "our 9/11" and going towards "our Pearl Harbor?"...
....ok.
The rest of the world wants to make Trump look bad.
No, I'm not kidding. That was the inital response to why this was a global thing. Literally everything is about him apparently.
Surgeon General: This week will be like a 'Pearl Harbor' and '9/11' moment
The US surgeon general said this week is going to be the "hardest and the saddest" for "most Americans' lives," describing the upcoming grim period of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States as a "Pearl Harbor moment" and a "9/11 moment."
What's the deal with this guy? I've only seen him during these press conferences and a handful of tv interviews and he comes across as an utter tool. Defending Trump's lies, denying federal mismanagement of medical supplies, justifying the Republican governors' refusal of announcing shelter-in-place etc. etc.
He seems wholly unqualified for the position, at the very least when it comes to integrity.
