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oh huh I guess that's changed since the last time I checked or as cases have increased. Thanks for the info.
My fever finally broke after almost three days.
Symptoms have been coming in waves so I'm not letting my guard down. But I'm now in quarantine for two weeks anyway.
Symptoms have been coming in waves so I'm not letting my guard down. But I'm now in quarantine for two weeks anyway.
Testing is also contracting. We're clearly at the limits of our capacity to test, so a slowdown in growth is not unexpected.
Until we can stop rationing testing (it's near impossible for most people to get tested right now), we're not going to have a true sense of just how rapidly this thing is spreading. We can track hospitalization and death numbers for a better indication of where we're at, but those numbers aren't being consistently provided and are likely not comprehensive as well.
Do you have a source on saying that testing is contracting? We know it's limited and rationed (and variable by state), but I haven't seen anything that would make me think it's been reduced.
I haven't found a good, comprehensive source on testing. Mostly just anecdotal data.
Trump talking about his ratings is fucking sad, the fuck man, people are scared so of course they want to hear what the government x president has to say.
The contraction is in growth. You can see historical reported numbers here.
Even those numbers aren't precise, as there is great variability in how numbers are being reported (CA for instance is apparently testing a ton of people that nobody can account for). But with those numbers, growth for yesterday was 2,000 (107K to 109K); the day before it had been 10,000 (98K to 107K), and the day before that 20,000 (77K to 98K).
The US as a whole is growing every day? I don't think I'm reading that link wrong. Every day there have been more tests then the day before. I'm not looking at individual states but just the overall picture
edit. Looking at my state, looks like the data is lagging and the hospitalization is way off what the state webpage that they are using as a reference states, so not sure how good this page is
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You're misreading what I wrote.
The rate of growth is slowing down. This correlates with a slowdown in growth of cases that we're seeing right now (if we assume a certain percentage of tests return positive, then when you only run 2,000 more tests today than you did yesterday, growth will not be the same as when you ran 20,000 more tests than the day before).
The site is legit and being referenced by everyone tracking the progress of the infection here in the US.
You can view how they grade and what data source they use for each state. It is not updated live, so it can lag behind by several hours depending on when their sources report. You can also see their messages on Twitter to read about the problems they're dealing with trying to incorporate and unify all the inconsistent data (since it's all varying by state and even county right now), including why the hospitalization numbers may not look right.
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That's a great source and you're correct, testing growth clearly slowing. Even if it's not perfect, that's the best tracking I've seen of total testing, thanks!
Are hand sanitizer supplies completely decimated? I'm in Los Angeles and I can't find hand sanitizer anywhere still. Not trying to hoard, just want one bottle.
Guys, don't you get it??? Julia Ioffe posted some snark about shithole countries so CLEARLY the media's giddy about a deadly pandemic!
The White House hasn't done social distancing at almost literally anything.
yes I was :) I don't know the math very well to see what the growth percentage is, it's growing at a steady rate 80,90,100,105,110 but yes the average growth from the day before is probably dropping a bit. Although I'm not sure it really matters, people that have symptoms and going to the doctors are getting tested. Nothing will ever show the real number because of people just dealing with it at home (which I assume will be higher in the US anyway because of the ingrained avoidance of doctors due to high costs... which I can bet you will also lead to lower death total due to rural people just dying at home becauseof lack of access), but if they are testing people coming to the doctors at least areas are showing slow downs
I wondered how changing the cutoff of death log plot would affect the positionning...
here it is (today's data, the report #69 of the WHO) :
starting at 90 death or 100 :
by the way, linear scale:
Korea out here putting the world to shame
The problem is that they're not testing. It is being rationed mainly to people who have contact with a known positive, recently traveled to certain countries, or are being admitted to the hospital. We don't have the tests or the resources to run them in sufficient supply, and they take too long to process (results can take upwards of 5 days in some cases!). The people who just get sent home because they're not bad enough to be hospitalized are not being tested, and they're not being counted.
So when we say the growth in cases has contracted, that's largely because we're testing about the same number of people as the day before (which statistically indicates we'll see relatively the same number of positives).
Yeah, they have an epidemic like that one every 5 years.. and it shows, they are properly prepared, even in front of new things.
I'm wondering the same thing. Is it possible that post-mortem testing takes a day longer because labs are doing less testing on Sunday?
I've stayed away from this thread for mental health reasons. How's Italy and Spain doing. Any news on potential treatments?
USA at 140k. Exploding there. Scary times, moreso with your adminstration.
Real numbers probably around 1.5m.
Real numbers probably around 1.5m.
you already got a UI extension
The US is a huge country with many cities and lots of hospitals. The amount positive is kind of irrelevant if it's spread out enough. Right now a large chunk of that number is NYC and it's surrounding areas, which isn't a good thing.
This. We are 33 times the size of Italy so you can't compare the two. A better comparison is between New York and Italy.
I'm going with "It's Sunday". Testing capacity is probably down.
People do their best, it's difficult.
Italy and Spain have to add to the Health fight the fear that Germany and Nederlands (there could be others, i didn't follow the debates) could continue to refuse to put all the coronavirus induced debt into a single european pool.
It's not good for your health... i still put in spoiler for others the daily death increments for Spain and Italy as given by WHO
On the medical front, at least neighbors help a little by taking a few patients in solidarity, but not nearly enough to prevent the fact they have to choose who to save far too often and for cases they shouldn't have to.
Italy rate of increase should start to lower much more in the coming days... we hope so, personnel is exhausted by the long fight... :( Those who fell sick should be able to rejoin the fight slowly, free of the worry of infection in the medium term.
Spain is a big source of concern... we feel for our friends... it's far from the end on that front :(
Anyone see this story about Battelle in Ohio inventing a way to reuse masks? DeWine is basically begging the FDA to approve it. And we will need it.
Coronavirus in Ohio: DeWine pleads with FDA to approve Battelle invention for masks
As expected, coronavirus numbers continued to increase in Ohio, with them standing Saturday at 1,406. The state also announced that the Greater Columbuswww.dispatch.com
My wife mentioned this to me last night.
Chicago.
Not quite. Daily new cases are still more than the number of people recovering+ the number of deaths, so the active cases in Italy are still growing everyday. But since six days ago this growth Is no longer exponential, and maybe sometime this week or the week after they should start going down
The numbers reporting in general is dumb because we have no idea anywhere in the world.
How fucked up is it that it took this going viral for them to close the fucking beaches?
Maybe poor choice of words, there, considering it very much was "going viral" before the social media shitstorm.
clearly an undercount, especially with NoVa and DC's connection with NYC
Scientists, doctors and nurses the true soldiers in this microscopic war.
Well deserved.
Hauntingly Beautiful until you remember all the death and suffering that lead to this.
Koyaanisqatsi -esque
Exactly how it was in the UK.
We needed a final weekend of videos flooding social media of fucking idiots bumbling about aimlessly like wankers, before anything got done in terms of closures or stay at home orders.