Interest read and free for now from Nikkei
asia.nikkei.com
2-year-old warning goes unheeded in lead-up to pandemic
Johns Hopkins released recommendations for fighting coronaviruses in 2018
asia.nikkei.com
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Unmasking the Truth: CDC and Hospital Administrators Are Endangering Us All
An opinion piece exposing the revolting truth about current frontline conditions in healthcare.medium.com
Unmasking the Truth: CDC and Hospital Administrators Are Endangering Us All
This needs to be read by everyone. As a physician in the middle of this pandemic, all our lives are at greater risk because of this shit.
This shit is so true it hurts. As a lab scientist, I'm way more worried that our phlebotomists are going to be an infection vector into the lab rather than any sample. Not because they are careless but rather they're not told who's a PUI and who's not. And obviously there's not enough PPE for treating every patient the same way.
I'm just thinking about how, with online classes, folks are going to be seeing a timelapse of folks getting the virus. Assuming half the US gets the virus, then in a class of 30, 15 will end up sick. Out of those 15, 3 will end of hospitalized. At least one of those 3 will likely need to go to the ICU, where the survival chances aren't great.
I'm not looking forward to that... I feel like it's almost inevitable that someone in one of my classes this quarter is going to catch the virus and die before all is said and done. Many more are going to get sick, and we're all going to see their symptoms progress over time.
Maybe I'm overthinking things, but I can't see how anybody is going to be able to learn when something like that happens.
I'm not looking forward to that... I feel like it's almost inevitable that someone in one of my classes this quarter is going to catch the virus and die before all is said and done. Many more are going to get sick, and we're all going to see their symptoms progress over time.
Maybe I'm overthinking things, but I can't see how anybody is going to be able to learn when something like that happens.
Tests are still being rationed. My wife couldn't get tested until she had cough AND because she works with high risk patients. (luckily it came back negative) Without any symptom there's no reason to test due to shortage.
Unless you have a bunch of people 65+ in your class I don't think you'll see that kind of breakdown.
Am I missing something? That's not showing hospitalization and ICU rates per age.
*cough*
The vast majority of cases are under 50, and like most other places in the country folks are only getting tested if they're obviously very sick.
I don't know, but this right here...... this right here. I don't understand how it's going to get that high if most of the state shelters in place.
These projections man. 😕
Study projects coronavirus deaths state by state through early August
New projections done by the University of Washington show a startling state-by-state...
Yea there's a 40- 50% hospitalization rate for people under 50 but it still skews to the older range you're not gonna see that with 18-22. And like you said that chart is skewed to only people with symptoms. Going by south Korea's mass testing results most of your class should be asymptomatic.
Also the main thing is 80% of people dying are still over 65+ so "if you go to the ICU you don't have a good chance" is a little misleading.
The projections are bad, but—yikes—imagine how much worse they could be if not for state-at-home orders.I don't know, but this right here...... this right here. I don't understand how it's going to get that high if most of the state shelters in place.
These projections man. 😕
Study projects coronavirus deaths state by state through early August
New projections done by the University of Washington show a startling state-by-state...m.sfgate.com
This shit is so scary. I have a family friend in Dallas, who's a nurse and she's now been convinced by her hospital not to wear a mask because it doesn't protect. Like, she's in a hospital right now dealing with all sorts of patients, it boggles my mind. She has elderly parents and a family.
I have a sick feeling in my stomache that we might find out with how some states are dragging their feet on it anything. I'm in Arizona and we have no shelter in place state-wide and half the response in Phoenix here has been from our own mayor instead. I had to drive to the post office to pick up a package (ugh I felt so uncomfortable doing that), and on my way I drove past a popular golf course with tons of old people on it. We don't have anything like a shelter in place /lockdown here. In fact the "Director of Arizona Division of Emergency Management" just up and quit today which just feels... ominous.
I don't see how it couldn't be worse. I mean they're assuming strick social distancing and isolation from the start of the study til August... Which is still not happening in some states. And there's no way people will stick to strict enough measures til August. As soon as numbers start to decline there's going to be huge pressure to go back to normal...which will trigger another surge.
I know there are so many aspects of this pandemic that deserve attention. The one I want to talk about is MASKS. I'm sure the topic has come up previously but on twitter today I have noticed a big shift/push around using them in public.
So, epidemiologists and other experts are pushing back against WHO/CDC's current stance on mask effectiveness. I liked this quote I came across: "If there are N95 shortages and healthcare workers get priority, say that. Don't lie and say improvised masks don't help."
Masks are not 'the cure' but it's clear they are part of a successful solution, along with physical distancing and extensive hand washing. You don't need a surgical/N95 mask - even a DIY cloth one is good. DIY masks are easy enough to make too - even a handkerchief, scarf, shawl, t-shirt etc is going to be better than nothing.
It's clear to me we need to quickly remove the (western) stigma around using them.
Recommended reading / sources:
Opinion | Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired (Published 2020)
To help manage the shortage, the authorities sent a message that made them untrustworthy.www.nytimes.com
(a twitter thread with receipts - this one is really good) https://twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/1242894378441506816?s=21
David Patterson on Twitter
“Leading COVID-19 expert from South Korea, explains why everyone should be wearing a mask. https://t.co/T2eNxBRPFs”twitter.com
Peter Daszak on Twitter
“I’m definitely going to listen to what George Fu Gao says so it’s mask & gloves whe. I go shopping https://t.co/ddvWvhQ97R”
Dr. Genevieve Guenther on Twitter
“The recommendation that everyone wear a mask encourages life-saving behaviors like hand washing by signaling that we're in a universal emergency—and it ensures that people who really need to wear a mask can do so without stigma. Systems thinking is also social-systems thinking...
Promoting simple do-it-yourself masks: an urgent intervention for COVID-19 mitigation
Dr. Fabian Svara 1, Angus Yiu-Ting Choi BSc, MPhil 2, Dr. Matthias Ober 3, Dr. Joergen Kornfeld 4, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Matthias Samwald 5*
Another related article:
Usage of masks "flattened" growth of coronavirus cases in Czech Republic
Prague [Czech Republic], Mar 29 (ANI): The growth of coronavirus cases has "flattened" in the Czech Republic ever since the country's government has made masks compulsory, claimed data scientist Jeremy Howard.
www.aninews.in
Some late night observations:
-Trump orders states to buy their own resources and then strategically outbids them at the last minute when they do manage to secure orders for critical medical supplies.
-Trump has vendors cut off states like Michigan due to personal grudges with governors.
-Trump sends Florida 200% of its requests from the national emergency stockpile (with more en route) while starving MA, ME, CO, CA, NJ, NY and NM. CO got a single day's worth of supplies while CA received 170 broken ventilators; Maine received barely 5 percent of its requests and we all know how poorly NY is being treated at the moment.
-Arizona is now also receiving its full requests from the Feds.
-South Carolina, like Florida, has also already received two full shipments of supplies as of yesterday.
I'm sensing a pattern here...
-Trump orders states to buy their own resources and then strategically outbids them at the last minute when they do manage to secure orders for critical medical supplies.
-Trump has vendors cut off states like Michigan due to personal grudges with governors.
-Trump sends Florida 200% of its requests from the national emergency stockpile (with more en route) while starving MA, ME, CO, CA, NJ, NY and NM. CO got a single day's worth of supplies while CA received 170 broken ventilators; Maine received barely 5 percent of its requests and we all know how poorly NY is being treated at the moment.
-Arizona is now also receiving its full requests from the Feds.
-South Carolina, like Florida, has also already received two full shipments of supplies as of yesterday.
I'm sensing a pattern here...
Me and my wife we had all covid19 symptoms except serious breathing issues around mid January. Worst fever I ever had, a week of 37C+, reaching 39C+ a few times. Dry cough lasted for like 3 weeks, and there was no mucus at all. We both had body aches and she had diarrhea. I never had anything like that before, it was quite terrible.
We isolated ourselves at home for at least 2 weeks, since we were in a bad shape and afraid of contaminating other people. We did go out once to see the doctor, who couldn't really tell what that was. She said it was some kind of viral disease, certainly not influenza.
If I had had that thing right now, I would have been 100% sure it was covid19. But the mid Jan timing seems weird, we would certainly have seen this thing spreading back then if that was the case.
Trump letting people die by the score to own the libs... fucking monstrous.
what the fuck.... you see the lengths they're going to in asia to stop this and protect themselves and look at responses like this and it makes you really think on things. embarrassing
we already got pandemic level virus in this timeline, why not a civil war while we're at it
N.Y.C.'s 911 System Is Overwhelmed.
www.nytimes.com
N.Y.C.’s 911 System Is Overwhelmed. ‘I’m Terrified,’ a Paramedic Says. (Published 2020)
With coronavirus cases mounting, emergency workers are making life-or-death decisions about who goes to a hospital, and who is left behind.
Well think about it this way ... imagine your stomach is like this highly acidic pool that shreds apart everything that goes down there. The virus can't attach to anything in your digestive track.
Where you get in trouble is indeed touching something and then bringing that up your nose. Once it gets in your nasal passage it's in.
Testing is the only way you'd know, but I think there would be no point now?
Anti-body test but who knows when that will be widely available
I can't speak for everyone but I just know this: The 1st case of COVID-19 in my county was reported way back in February 1st. Around that time I had a pretty bad case of the flu, fever, chills, throat so sore I pretty much lost my voice for three days. I bounced back after about a week and thought nothing of it. Now...I just don't know. 99% odds it was just the flu, but given its been that long that COVID-19 has been in my county, who knows what happened?
Most of the cases in my county are in their 20s. After that it's the 40 year olds.
I wonder if there are models complex enough to also account for the excess mortality for ICU patients who are NOT being treated for COVID-19. With an overstressed critical care system, that population's mortality risk must also be expected to rise.I don't know, but this right here...... this right here. I don't understand how it's going to get that high if most of the state shelters in place.
These projections man. 😕
Study projects coronavirus deaths state by state through early August
New projections done by the University of Washington show a startling state-by-state...
Then there are certain elective cancer operations that are being delayed, that while in theory should not be leading to increased mortality risk, there will always be that unlucky patient or twelve whose cancers aggressively advanced during the postponement, dooming them. And we've already discussed mental health burden/suicide risk. Make no mistake; with all the attention, fear, and resources going towards this pandemic (justifiably so), ALL acute hospital care is jeopardized. Without including the socioeconomic effects, the secondary mortality fallout just within the confines of the hospitals' walls will be far more vast than the number dead directly attributed to COVID-19.
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Serious opinion: In about 7-14 days when the bodies start amassing for real and we're losing more Americans per day than we lost in total on 9/11. The severity of his fuck ups has not quite made itself clear (enough) to his base yet. That's going to change very soon. When Florida, Texas, Georgia, Mississippi and Louisiana become the national epicenters of this virus and when old white conservatives are falling dead by the literal thousands... tunes will change. Until then, we endure Republicans attempting to play politics with a pandemic that doesn't give a fuck.
At this point I would be surprised if the US as a whole wasn't over 1 million cases in a month.
Given the average rate of increase and how poorly most of the US is locked down right now it's fairly likely the US breaks 1 mil in less than a month.
Tunes will not change. Know why? Because I think the first thing they'll do when the disbelief and despair set in is go looking for answers.
And they'll go looking for answers on Fox.
And Fox will tell them the Democrats killed their friends or families.
And since Fox has never lied to them before, they will believe. They will cling to the familiar in times of tragic and terrifying chaos.
This will not change.
probably.
Republican led genocide of Blue states. Its treason and we should hold trials like we did at Nuremberg.
I had something very similar in december. I think this has to be an unrelated virus.
A few weeks back I was expecting 3 million confirmed cases by the start of May in US alone, but that was before any lockdowns. I now feel like the curves will slightly flatten in some states in mid-to-late April, but will still be very high when they do... and sadly places like Florida will be in chaos after a few weeks incubation from now.
...of course those numbers mean tests need to be done. And I worry that won't even happen. And even with tests there is always multiples of undocumented cases causing more damage
April is going to be a mess. A scary horrible mess.
Coronavirus Map: Tracking COVID-19 cases across the Bay Area and California
Track the spread of COVID-19 cases in the Bay Area and California and get live updates with The San Francisco Chronicle's exclusive map, the only comprehensive coronavirus case tracker for the region.
Cali keeps shooting up every time I check the tracker.
We're probably going to hit 10k cases before next weekend at this rate. Pretty terrifying.
Having followed basically every last day of the horror that has been this presidency? It does not surprise me in the slightest. This is a guy who went to great lengths to cover up thousands of hurricane deaths in Puerto Rico, and the strategy for the first 6 weeks of this crisis was to try to replicate that effort. If he had no problem toying with the lives of the millions of people on that island, it's not at all a stretch to think he'd extend that to states or even the whole country if he felt it would benefit him.
You can hope republicans get absolutely blown the fuck out in every race at every level in every city and every state in November. That's the only remedy Americans really have.
Hospital tested all patients during a week for safety reasons. 8% of all non Corona patients showed long damage like they had Corona. They came in for stuff like their appendix or a broken leg so even no Corona like complaints.
m.hln.be
UZ Brussel test alle patiënten systematisch: 8 procent van de niet-covidpatiënten toch besmet
Heel wat Belgen zijn besmet met het coronavirus zonder het zelf te beseffen. Dat werd meermaals door experts herhaald, en lijkt nu ook bevestigd te worden door een experiment van het UZ Brussel. Het ziekenhuis test sinds maandag alle patiënten, ook patiënten zonder coronaklachten. Na een week...
m.hln.be
Hospital tested all patients during a week for safety reasons. 8% of all non Corona patients showed long damage like they had Corona. They came in for stuff like their appendix or a broken leg so even no Corona like complaints.
UZ Brussel test alle patiënten systematisch: 8 procent van de niet-covidpatiënten toch besmet
Heel wat Belgen zijn besmet met het coronavirus zonder het zelf te beseffen. Dat werd meermaals door experts herhaald, en lijkt nu ook bevestigd te worden door een experiment van het UZ Brussel. Het ziekenhuis test sinds maandag alle patiënten, ook patiënten zonder coronaklachten. Na een week...
Does Corona leave a unique signature of lung damage or could some have come elsewhere?
Yeah, I'm really curious about that, too. Japan has done very little (compared to other countries) to stop the virus, they've probably done pretty little testing, and even with masks it seems almost impossible to me that it hasn't spread a ton considering how crowded their biggest cities are. Yet we're not hearing any reports about thousands of people dying or hospitals being crowded even.
Maybe wearing masks actually is super-effective but somehow wasn't in China? But that would also mean that Japan's case numbers should be more or less correct which doesn't sound right in regards to testing. Or there's something we are missing -- but what?