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Which is why coming down as hard and fast as possible and then loosening up was always the best strategy. Pity that.
Assuming you recover you should have some sort of immunity as with basically all illnesses, the question is really how long does that last. People will cite a couple of articles about a handful of reinfections but the sample size is small so impossible to draw any conclusions.
He forgot a 0. With 40.000 infections/day and a 5% ICU need there would be 2000 new ICU patients per day. German healthcare COULD handle that. It are numbers, with facts behind them. Stop claiming otherwise, you are literally spreading misinformation with 0 sources or facts.
If you look at the data 10% of infected need hospitalization. Of that 5% need ICU/Ventilator support.
We only know enough to say that flattening the curve is the safest option. We don't know how immunity will pan out, we don't know about mutations, but we DO know that speed running it will get *more* people killed.
People on reddit are predicting it's going to be up to 1 million infected by the end of the week at this rate. :(
There's no reason at all things like food and housing need to cost money.
We're at a turning point here. A single virus can essentially stop our society in it's tracks as if it were nothing. We can either continue on our current path, to the point that we put millions of lives at risk, and try to return to the old normal (only to have it fall apart again the next time there is a pandemic). Or we can change.
People in this thread are attacking me for two pages now, without sources, facts or anything. I provide videos/links and facts for every one of my claims. I am just kinda agitated, because you can't have a discussion like this.
The video exactly says how many ICU beds can be freed and has very sound and good math behind it.
Not saying they are wrong, but everything people post on reddit or here should be taken with a grain of salt.
What do you mean it's gaining traction? It was always there, maybe not for Italy as a whole but certainly for Germany and other countries. I honestly believe the current drastic measures are just to show the people they are doing something, that they care. They will keep this up for two weeks then tell us it slowed down and lift it. The told us right from the start "a lot of your loved ones are going to die". How more plainly can you say it.
Also you CAN NOT look at Germany's ICU situation and ignore the fact that many ICU stations haven't been used for years because we just don't have the caregivers, properly educated nurses etc. to keep them running. In 2019 we already had almost 100k less caregivers in hospitals than we needed. That is just for hospitals...
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You and i both know, it won't happen. The housing need to be paid, how would go on about it. Actually my life depends on the construction market, me and thousands like me. I agree that we need to shift our alignment and focus on avoid this sort of situation again, but it has to be something in the middle.
Yeah, it means keeping the nursing homes closed and the likes. Belgium is number two behind Germany in terms of ICU beds, so we could also handle it supposing that nursing homes and other risk groups stay locked off.
It won't peak in two weeks anywhere. What it might slow down is the daily increase rate in some countries but it will still grow a lot.
I don´t think it makes sense to only focus on the age here when we talk about risk groups (i also wouldn´t lump 20 year olds and 44 year olds together). It should be age and pre existing conditions. If you´re a healthy 30 year old you have pretty much nothing to fear. That already looks very different for a morbidly obese 30 ear old with high blood pressure.Unless you're a child there is no truly non-risk group in an overloaded system
You can do a partial lockdown while taking important measures and I'm sure every country is already looking at what to do after flattening the curve, that is why here in the West we need to change a lot of societal behaviors and by change I mean we need to impose them, like at some point everybody who goes out needs to wear a mask, like they are already doing in China or South Korea.
Yes.
But for how long we don't know.
And the virus can mutate in to multiple strains, which we would not be immune to.
UK government scientific advisers expect COVID-19 to turn in to an annual/seasonal virus (like flu), mutating in to multiple strains. ICU capacity is going to need to massively expand around the world permanently, although once we know more about the virus and its potential future derivatives, we will be better equipped with the knowledge and experience to treat it more successfully, and hopefully vaccinate where possible.
Free house for everyone doesn't work. Soviet union tried that concept and it failed miserably.
Even if the reports are a genuine freak occurrence instead of something more likely like a flare-up or a false negative the chance seems to be so astronomically low that it would never make a difference long-term
After the authorities in the West insisted that the masks are not useful it will take a lot of convincing to do to impose them. Also a lot of mask supplies.
This isn't entirely true, I've seen enough news stories by now of people under 40 dying even though they had no preexisting health conditions, while their partner only had a 'mild flu'. Genetics may play a role
Infected we know of. In reality the number of infected is way way higher which means that the percentage of people who need hospitalization is lower.
Exactly. Herd immunity isn't the main goal; it's a welcome by product if it's indeed possible to attain. (we don't know yet.) The main goal is to relieve hospitals on a manageable level until a vaccine is mass produced.
Yeah all rates are very skewed right now and we will have a better picture in a few years.
That's probably true but we can only work with the base data we have right now.
We definitely need to up mask usage in the west. Hopefully shortages will end soon, as China and other countries are producing them at record quantities.
I don't think it will be hard to convince people to wear them once masks are readily available everywhere. Just tell people they can't enter a shop or a bus without wearing a mask and usage will instantly skyrocket.
Let's be honest, how many people are wearing bycicle helmets? Those things are a lot more usefuls than masks, and we aren't good at wearing them either.
If you completely ignore the percentages and look at the absolute numbers we already see Italy, Spain and France with a number of hospitalisations and especially in intensive care that are close to or even over capacity in some regions. And more countries will follow, US already has NY, UK is on a worse trend and so on.
So you can play with hypothetical percentages as much as you want but if you apply an even much lower percentage to 60-70% of the population of a country it paints a hell if it happens too quickly.
Okay let me start this from the top.
My understanding of the "pursuing herd immunity strategy" was that the Government will NOT impose any kind of work hrs reduction, travel restriction, shutting down of any kind to contain the spread of the virus. The GOAL becomes letting the virus spread as fast and wide as possible rampantly so the majority of citizen will contract it, survive it and THEN hope they develop natural immunity to the virus. The dead along the road be damned, at least this way everyone will resume life as normal and get the economy running again ASAP.
Now, based on your reply are you saying this is the official strategy of Germany and other countries?
It doesn't seem that way to me because from my understanding if there are any kind of containment measures in place then BY DEFAULT they are not pursuing this "herd immunity" strategy. Reading the news on Germany's side this reads like it's just something they hope to happen in the far future (maybe >2years) after the worst came to pass so as to minimize chances of a second outbreak.
Do cmiiw.
Herd immunity = long term goal, either via vaccine or natural spread. NOT an excuse to do nothing and watch people die.
Ideally in the meantime everyone does their best to contain the spread and not overload the system.
Okay, here I have two people telling me completely different things.
Considering the CFR estimates, a 0.5% rate of ICU care would be ludicrous.
That kinda makes sense but no idea how they'd sell it to their voters, if a selective lockdown is even legal.
Yeah, the true number of people that are positive for corona is definitely higher that the numbers we have , which does bring the hospitalization of infected way down (a really significant portion of the population is asymptomatic) - however that 10% is still valid because it's in relation to the numbers we have. If hospitalization is "only" needed for 1% of the actual infected people, but the actual infected people is 10x higher than the numbers we have, we're still fucked.
The CFR is lower for Germany because testing is casting a wider net. Until a better test is in place, any estimates around the CFR are blind guesses if comparing across countries.
No no, this is my personal believe. Call it a conspiracy theory if you will. We will know in around 14 days. I am saying this because I fear they will see this as necessary to keep the economy going. I felt that in the beginning that was what they were going for, like the UK and Sweden, Denmark etc.
It is a goal, not every government is open about it, but some are, e.g. UK and Netherlands have both stated as much.
The U.K. backed off on herd immunity. To beat COVID-19, we’ll ultimately need it.
Widespread immunity is essential for a successful vaccine, but establishing it could be difficult for the new coronavirus.
www.nationalgeographic.com
What about medical professionals? You can't just order them from factories like you can ventilators, masks, etc. You can have all the resources in the world, if you lack medical professionals you're shit out of luck.
I base my claims on the linked video, where he did the math with ~5% ICU.
Xando takes the currently real numbers from Germany. Both numbers/facts show that Germany can "handle" 40.000 new infections per day.
Also we are taking ICU patients from France into our border-near hospitals, that also shows that we still seem to have enough capacity in most states.
No it's not.It is a goal, not every government is open about it, but some are, e.g. UK and Netherlands have both stated as much.
The U.K. backed off on herd immunity. To beat COVID-19, we’ll ultimately need it.
Widespread immunity is essential for a successful vaccine, but establishing it could be difficult for the new coronavirus.
https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6038609/rutte-verduidelijkt-groepsimmuniteit-is-niet-het-doel.amp
It seems that "herd immunity strategy" is often misinterpreted as the straw man "do nothing at all about it". Both the UK and The Netherlands were and are introducing measures to control the spread.It is a goal, not every government is open about it, but some are, e.g. UK and Netherlands have both stated as much.
The U.K. backed off on herd immunity. To beat COVID-19, we’ll ultimately need it.
Widespread immunity is essential for a successful vaccine, but establishing it could be difficult for the new coronavirus.
Well I've definitely started to freak out and trying to stay calm. My fiancé complained about body aches yesterday, and he repeatedly took his temperature and nothing too elevated. Of course right before we were getting ready to go to bed, he took it and it was 100.7. No chest tightness, trouble breathing, or coughing though. We slept in separate bedrooms in case it is COVID-19 (though if it is, I'm sure I have it by now) and I just went to check on him. Said he still feels aches (albeit better than yesterday), and still no coughing or trouble breathing. He wants to rest a bit longer and we're going to take his temp again and go from there. Really hoping this isn't coronavirus, but I'm more than paranoid at this point.
City of Dallas just issued a shelter in place order. For those already under such an order, are telecommunication companies generally exempt? I work finance at a telecommunication company who can't work from home for various reasons
Not sure what your problem is. Considering a vaccine is 12-18 months away the only way to start some kind of public life again is to achieve some base immunity.
Good luck trying to keep 300 million people in quarantine for a year.
That's not saying you should just let it run like crazy like the UK tried but the best way to achieve it is to lift lockdowns partially.
The healthcare systems will still get overwhelmed if too many people at the same time get infected, that´s right. But the overall picture isn´t quite as grim as a 10% hospitalization quote would suggest.