Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

[UltraMagnus]

Hong Kong was doing pretty good and relaxed their lockdownn measures. Turned out that it was too soon and they have to reintroduce them again. They are starting to see a third wave of infections.

I hope we learn from it in the west but it's hard to imagine.

Hong Kong appeared to have the coronavirus under control, then it let its guard down | CNN

As the sudden surge in cases in Hong Kong shows, quarantines and social distancing must continue well beyond the initial wave of cases, if another round of infections is to be avoided.

edition.cnn.com

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What really can you learn from though, without a vaccine any time you ease quarantine, new transmission vectors will pop up unless you somehow get the virus down to virtually 0.

 

[Deleted member 14459]

I read this comment on twitter that he is getting crazier every day because he is realising he can't gaslight a virus

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Yeah. And he still has a huge financial stake in tourism and hospitality on top of his reelection's only line of defense, the economy - all which is just escalating his usual rhetoric.

 

[Vuze]

As seen today in Tacoma

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Haha, I LOVE it.

 

[darkwing]

Hong Kong was doing pretty good and relaxed their lockdownn measures. Turned out that it was too soon and they have to reintroduce them again. They are starting to see a third wave of infections.

I hope we learn from it in the west but it's hard to imagine.

Hong Kong appeared to have the coronavirus under control, then it let its guard down | CNN

As the sudden surge in cases in Hong Kong shows, quarantines and social distancing must continue well beyond the initial wave of cases, if another round of infections is to be avoided.

edition.cnn.com

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not good to open it to travel in or out yet without a vaccine

 

[Deleted member 2254]

In Italy here: given my sector has to close up by Wednesday, looks like I'm working until Tuesday. Yesterday morning it seemed that this would not be the case. A lot of people missing though.

 

[Lishi]

What really can you learn from though, without a vaccine any time you ease quarantine, new transmission vectors will pop up unless you somehow get the virus down to virtually 0.

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It's kinda different.

I dont think they ever eased the measure.
If it's like Singapore, were number doubled in the last week compared to previous 2 month, it's mostly people returning from abroad. There is way to lower this number as mostly they are resident, but if correctly quarantined and detected correctly it would not lead to local spread.

But since most of them returned from europe and US (actually UK) it mean that travel restriction will go quite long time.

 

[Froli]

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I want this kind of leadership

 

[Deleted member 48991]

What really can you learn from though, without a vaccine any time you ease quarantine, new transmission vectors will pop up unless you somehow get the virus down to virtually 0.

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I'm afraid the entire year will be like Ferguson et al. modeled (Figure 4 of this report). Lockdown for a month or longer while cases grow, peak and decline, then a few weeks without lockdown, then another internal/external lockdown to deal with new outbreaks growing out of control. Hopefully at some point the virus will have died out globally or a vaccine becomes available...

 

[Evodelu]

Job loss + disease + financial insecurity + prolonged isolation = depression and anxiety

 

[belairjeff]

I want this kind of leadership

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This guy communicates really well albeit a little too fast.

 

[Rory]

not good to open it to travel in or out yet without a vaccine

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It will take at least 6 month. You cant freeze the world for a year.

 

[darkwing]

It will take at least 6 month. You cant freeze the world for a year.

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no I mean no international travel, plus rapid testing and tracing

 

[Donos]

I'm afraid the entire year will be like Ferguson et al. modeled (Figure 4 of this report). Lockdown for a month or longer while cases grow, peak and decline, then a few weeks without lockdown, then another internal/external lockdown to deal with new outbreaks growing out of control. Hopefully at some point the virus will have died out globally or a vaccine becomes available...

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Difference is that people are way more aware, wash better, take distance and every slight hint of someone infected will be checked out /reported.

But then again lots of people are stupid and are probably going to go to gangbang parties while sick, to catch up the quarantine weeks...

hard to predict

 

[Grath]

In Italy here: given my sector has to close up by Wednesday, looks like I'm working until Tuesday. Yesterday morning it seemed that this would not be the case. A lot of people missing though.

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What do you mean by people missing?

Also, could you give us a small update about southern Italy? There were concerns about escaping people from the north bringing the virus down south, but I've heard nothing about it since. How are things in Naples and other southern places?

 

[GasProblem]

no I mean no international travel, plus rapid testing and tracing

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Yeah, international travel doesn't seem like a good idea before there is a vaccine. Mandatory 14 day quarantaine for every single traveler seems wise.

 

[Fart Master]

For the last few days, i lost my sense of smell. i just read this could be a symptoms.

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You really should see a doctor if you can or maybe visit a clinic and let them know your symptoms beforehand. Don't stress too much though that's not gonna do you any favors.

 

[Deleted member 2254]

What do you mean by people missing?

Also, could you give us a small update about southern Italy? There were concerns about escaping people from the north bringing the virus down south, but I've heard nothing about it since. How are things in Naples and other southern places?

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A lot of people just chose to stay home today. I don't know how much is it down to fear, how many have symptoms or have someone close who does, how many just failed to get the info on time (the fact we're working today was confirmed yesterday around 8PM, earlier that day we were told we aren't coming in today).

Southern Italy is still nowhere near as bad as the Lombardia region fortunately, numbers keep being manageable. Last time around a lot of idiots infected people, but they were mostly contained inside of families who then self-isolated. Rome is a bit dodgier but overall not too bad. This new phase of the lockdown was preceded by cops guarding train stations, airplanes, even highways, and there seems to have been no mass exodus this time around. Have to think that practically all those who wanted to leave already did so, and those who still would like to are either responsible enough or fear authorities too much to escape now.

 

[Toxi]

You really should see a doctor if you can or maybe visit a clinic and let them know your symptoms beforehand. Don't stress too much though that's not gonna do you any favors.

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Again, losing your sense of smell is an extremely common thing during this time of year. Spring allergies cause loss of smell. Colds from non-SARS-COV-2 viruses. Even cold weather itself.

If that poster does actually have mostly asymptomatic coronavirus, visiting a medical professional to figure that out is unnecessarily putting people needed on the front lines at risk of infection (and when they are infected, they have to stay at home even if it's mild). It's better to just err on safety and stay at home unless the symptoms become more severe.

 

[Deleted member 48991]

Difference is that people are way more aware, wash better, take distance and every slight hint of someone infected will be checked out /reported.

But then again lots of people are stupid and are probably going to go to gangbang parties while sick, to catch up the quarantine weeks...

hard to predict

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I live in Japan where we currently do not have a lockdown, but our numbers are rising so at some point I guess a partial lockdown will be enforced. This weekend there was already a recommendation for people of two neighboring cities not to cross the border between both (which was subsequently largely ignored by many people). I think our numbers are just the peak of the iceberg but at the same time the growth has mostly been linear. With strong hygiene norms the spread can be relatively constrained. I hope the western world will accept some practices that are common here, like wearing masks when you feel a little bit sick and washing your hands throughout the day.

Meanwhile an increase in medical capacity like number of available beds will allow countries to go without strict measures for longer periods of time, but due to exponential growth there is not so much to gain. What's more promising is that there will be more and more people immune to the disease after each outbreak event, meaning that future outbreak events will be less severe. Also doctors will get more experience treating the disease and can thus reduce the time patients spend in the hospital, which also increases their capacity.

 

[Lilo_D]

dunno if this interview with fauci was posted

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

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Eventually, i mean eventually, this disaster will be all Chinese fault

 

[elenarie]

No changes at all in Sweden so far regarding handling this situation. The government is still going hard after the herd immunity tactic.

 

[Serious Sam]

No changes at all in Sweden so far regarding handling this situation. The government is still going hard after the herd immunity tactic.

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Hate to admit but herd immunity argument has some weight to it. Can we really destroy our economy for up to 2 years? Who knows what sort of damage that will do. I guess in the end it's just math and trying to calculate the lesser of two evils. What will do more damage, trying to achieve herd immunity asap and continue our life, or dig in for 2 years.

I really hope that "flatten the curve" theory works and is kind of a mix of both methods how to approach this crisis.

 

[Diablos]

???

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This is both terrifying and infuriating. He's basically probably going to tell people to go back to work after a couple weeks. Global pandemic be damned. More people are going to die because of this stupid, heartless, greedy piece of subhuman shit.

 

[Deleted member 21709]

No changes at all in Sweden so far regarding handling this situation. The government is still going hard after the herd immunity tactic.

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Do you sense a lot of outrage in the public regarding this?

 

[Lishi]

This is both terrifying and infuriating. He's basically probably going to tell people to go back to work after a couple weeks. Global pandemic be damned. More people are going to die because of this stupid, heartless, greedy piece of subhuman shit.

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If people are afraid to go out and consume economics will still tank.

 

[sweetmini]

I don't know if it's been written already here but the fines in France for breaking the "stay at home" have been increased
it was 135 euros before
now it's
135 euros for first offense
1500 euros for second and third within 15 days of the first
3700 euros for 4th upward within 30 days, and criminal case to be prosecuted with up to 6 months in prison. (that's because of rich people still breaking at leisure -135 euros is nothing to them-, some partying and doing public BBQs of more than 5 people not from the family household circle or other community reunions not sanctioned by state as possible)

 

[elenarie]

Hate to admit but herd immunity argument has some weight to it. Can we really destroy our economy for up to 2 years? Who knows what sort of damage that will do. I guess in the end it's just math and trying to calculate the lesser of two evils. What will do more damage, trying to achieve herd immunity asap and continue our life, or dig in for 2 years.

I really hope that "flatten the curve" theory works and is kind of a mix of both methods how to approach this crisis.

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It is a reasonable approach, if things don't go out of control. If they do, it will be pretty bad. I guess we'll see.

Do you sense a lot of outrage in the public regarding this?

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Not really. Haven't noticed any significant changes in people's behaviours. We are all staying at home and WFH, but regular life goes on.

 

[Diablos]

If people are afraid to go out and consume economics will still tank.

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And people will continue to get infected, continue to get really sick, and continue to die while this president more than anything else is telling everybody to go back to work and encourage businesses to open. More people will be impacted and will die because of him. His failure to do anything early on was bad enough, but this is just completely insane.

 

[Serious Sam]

And people will continue to get infected, continue to get really sick, and continue to die while this president more than anything else is telling everybody to go back to work and encourage businesses to open. More people will be impacted and will die because of him. His failure to do anything early on was bad enough, but this is just completely insane.

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My small European country closed borders and quarantined very early on when we still had just a couple of cases, but now second week into quarantine and everyone is starting to wonder about what will happen next... this can't go on indefinitely, everything is starting to crack.

 

[Deleted member 41520]

You are correct that those market is not hygienic, especially if you only ever buy meat from a supermarket. However science is about evidence. You cannot claim A cause B just because you don't like A.

One good thing about this is, even if the wet market is not the source, authorities in China and the rest of the world would realize the potential problem with live animal trade and at least regulate them better. At least I hope so.

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Lmao I'm not claiming it without evidence, though? There are articles written about this, academic ones. I've read them.

After the SARS epidemic China even "shut down" all wildlife markets for ostensibly "ever" but it ended up being a soft ban which they quickly lifted. And RIGHT NOW they have shut down wildlife markets again, in light of COVID19 (I think this time it will last much longer).

I don't culturally have any issue with this. I'm not talking from a place of emotion or personal belief. It's a fact that we know these places are breeding grounds for viruses, and that the more a virus transmits the higher liklihood it has of mutating - thus developing a mutation which allows it to leap to humans.

I thought people typically have less smell/taste with any flu or cold. Anecdotally, from what I can remember from past sickness to a certain extent too

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I think that's due to nasal inflammation and blockage - whereas in COVID's case it's literally anosmia (your smell receptors stop working).

 

[sweetmini]

And people will continue to get infected, continue to get really sick, and continue to die while this president more than anything else is telling everybody to go back to work and encourage businesses to open. More people will be impacted and will die because of him. His failure to do anything early on was bad enough, but this is just completely insane.

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People don't grasp that 1 out of 3 entering ICU dies.
I lost someone i knew, 45yo, two days ago to Coronavirus, he died when they put him into comatose state.

The public thinks the big majority survive... true with mild symptoms, otherwise no ... entering ICU is Russian roulette... and 15% of those needing hospital care will go to ICU in my country.

 

[Naru]

???

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I am not 100% sure I even understand this Tweet but if it means what everyone is saying (and I know we had this discussion before), how is this going to work? You can hide numbers but you can not hide the fact that hospitals will send people over 60 away. This isn't China. When older people start dying in their homes people will just keep on going for the sake of a (somewhat) working economy? Again, this isn't China. Yeah I know people say "if there is no alternative... more people would die if the economy is crashing" blah but that is not how it works. I know this is a somewhat worst case scenario but I would say if it comes to this (and lets hope it's not) isn't society itself crashing at this point? I can not wrap my head around this (possible) scenario. I know it sounds very melodramatic but it's actually not. It's not something that keeps me up at night. I just try to understand it, want to make sense of it, too see what's going to happen but I can not. It will be fascinating to watch how far we/they have to go.

 

[Beer Monkey]

 

[Sloane]

Hate to admit but herd immunity argument has some weight to it. Can we really destroy our economy for up to 2 years? Who knows what sort of damage that will do. I guess in the end it's just math and trying to calculate the lesser of two evils. What will do more damage, trying to achieve herd immunity asap and continue our life, or dig in for 2 years.

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Yeah. The speed run / herd immunity strategy obviously poses some dangers but the alternative might cause even more harm in the long run.

Germany is expecting up to 1 million jobs lost and the economy to drop by up to 20% if the lockdown lasts only three months, in the US the unemployment might hit 30% -- that's pretty much unprecedented and millions of people will die from that.

I don't know how we are going to solve this, but if we have to keep this up for more than a couple of months, won't everything fail, not just the health system?

Obviously doesn't help that we don't have any reliable numbers on what the infection count and mortality rate actually look like. Our only hope might be that it's going to be over much sooner than we think.

 

[Gorgosh]

Yeah. The speed run / herd immunity strategy obviously poses some dangers but the alternative might cause even more harm in the long run.

Germany is expecting up to 1 million jobs lost and the economy to drop by up to 20% if the lockdown lasts only three months, in the US the unemployment might hit 30% -- that's pretty much unprecedented and millions of people will die from that.

I don't know how we are going to solve this, but if we have to keep this up for more than a couple of months, won't everything fail, not just the health system?

Obviously doesn't help that we don't have any reliable numbers on what the infection count and mortality rate actually look like. Our only hope might be that it's going to be over much sooner than we think.

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And that is why the measures taken need to be evaluated by every country. Germany can have up to 40.000 new infections/day before the health system collapses, so we probably needed to take measures later than other countires. I think pretty much all countries are going for herd immunity, since every country thinks 60-70% of the people will get it. Some try to spread it more, some need to spread it less, it all depends on the healthcare infrastructure.

 

[Beer Monkey]

if the lockdown lasts only three months, in the US the unemployment might hit 30% -- that's pretty much unprecedented and millions of people will die from that.

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Not if we behave as a society and block evictions and print money etc. Fiat for the win.

 

[Raonak]

We've now got 102 cases in New Zealand, with a population of ~4.5m

We've now gone into lockdown for 4 weeks (excluding "essential services")

 

[Dany1899]

I don't know if it's been written already here but the fines in France for breaking the "stay at home" have been increased
it was 135 euros before
now it's
135 euros for first offense
1500 euros for second and third within 15 days of the first
3700 euros for 4th upward within 30 days, and criminal case to be prosecuted with up to 6 months in prison. (that's because of rich people still breaking at leisure -135 euros is nothing to them-, some partying and doing public BBQs of more than 5 people not from the family household circle or other community reunions not sanctioned by state as possible)

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In Italy, you get a criminal complaint as soon as you are found breaking the rules.

 

[mozbar]

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FINALLY.

The governor of Tokyo says if the residents don't do the right thing regarding the virus...she might have to consider a full lockdown. Took them a while to even consider this.

 

[Radec]

Singapore is now very strict due to the surge of non-local transmissions entering SG.

Basically, if you are an ex-pat with employment pass and planning to go back to Singapore, you have to mail the government first for their approval.
If you enter Singapore without this approval, they will revoke your pass, ban you for life, and send you home.

Tourists are also not welcome right now.

 

[derFeef]

And that is why the measures taken need to be evaluated by every country. Germany can have up to 40.000 new infections/day before the health system collapses, so we probably needed to take measures later than other countires. I think pretty much all countries are going for herd immunity, since every country thinks 60-70% of the people will get it. Some try to spread it more, some need to spread it less, it all depends on the healthcare infrastructure.

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That's pretty much a death sentence for high risk groups. Fuck this world.

 

[SushiReese]

No changes at all in Sweden so far regarding handling this situation. The government is still going hard after the herd immunity tactic.

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Does it work? How do the public react to government's policies?

 

[Gorgosh]

That's pretty much a death sentence for high risk groups. Fuck this world.

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What are you talking about? The infection spread is hadrly stoppable at this point, so each country must implement measures to be able to take care of all patients, especially risk groups. It is exactly the opposite, it is the best chance for high risk groups.

 

[sweetmini]

That's pretty much a death sentence for high risk groups. Fuck this world.

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I wish there will not be anywhere an evil hope of reducing healthcare spending to the elderly or retirement payouts by forcing a "herd immunity fast" plan ...

 

[Deleted member 41520]

Do u guys have any tips to appropriate clothes to go to a super market? I need to use a mask?

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Shudouken's tips were good. How I approach it is:

- only go to a store with auto-open doors. You don't want to touch door handles or push open swing doors
- only go to a store with self-service checkouts and if they take contactless card payment. You can hover the card an inch or two from the reader and it still reads.
- wear gloves and don't touch your face at all while out. Take off the gloves and put them in the laundry basket once you're back, or at some ideal point (e.g. before opening the door into your home)
- if possible, check multiple stores for the one which is least populated

Follow these and in theory you can get through the whole shopping experience barely encountering another person and only touching the specific products you wanted to buy.

 

[Beer Monkey]

What are you talking about? The infection spread is hadrly stoppable at this point, so each country must implement measures to be able to take care of all patients, especially risk groups. It is exactly the opposite, it is the best chance for high risk groups.

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Overloading the fucking hospitals means high risk groups get death panels.

If you are over 60 in Italy right now, no ventilators are available. A week ago the magic age was 85.

The 'rush to herd immunity' approach means we just start murdering the high risk people by neglect. That's why the UK has dialed it back.

We can't just flip a switch and turn regular rooms into ICU rooms even if the ventilator production increases, they don't have the gas lines, negative pressure systems, etc. The hospitals are built around the ICU rooms and their needs.

 

[derFeef]

What are you talking about? The infection spread is hadrly stoppable at this point, so each country must implement measures to be able to take care of all patients, especially risk groups. It is exactly the opposite, it is the best chance for high risk groups.

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You ever heard of Triage?

 

[Gorgosh]

Overloading the fucking hospitals means high risk groups get death panels.

If you are over 60 in Italy right now, no ventilators are available. A week ago the magic age was 85.

The 'rush to herd immunity' approach means we just start murdering the high risk people by neglect. That's why the UK has dialed it back.

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Ehm, I said every country has to implement measures so exactly that doesn't happen. Germany can have mor einfections/day than most other EU countries because of higher ICU capacities. Every country has to implement measures so that he healtcare system is NOT overloaded, that is what I wrote....

 

[Arex]

Idk, herd immunity by spreading the COVID more just sounds to me you're sentencing the old/risky population to death + overwhelming the health resources at the same time if/when 10-20% of those 60-70% population, which is a lot, needs ICUs.

We don't even know if you're immune once you recover from it, do we?

 

[Patapuf]

Overloading the fucking hospitals means high risk groups get death panels.

If you are over 60 in Italy right now, no ventilators are available. A week ago the magic age was 85.

The 'rush to herd immunity' approach means we just start murdering the high risk people by neglect. That's why the UK has dialed it back.

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Jep. This is the biggest danger of the virus and why everyone talks about "flattening the curve".

Rushing the spread of infections before a vaccine and before a good antiviral treatment is available means your willing to risk your hospitals being overwhelmed and lots of people dying.