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Detective Pidgey

Alt Account
Banned
Jun 4, 2019
6,255
I'm in the discussion on Reddit about the virus in Holland and I said let's hope once summer comes it will calm down a little. I got one response

"From the evidence so far, the virus can be transmitted in all areas, including areas with hot and humid weather."

The person got that from a site called The Who and this was under Myth Busters. I don't like that.
 

Numberfox

Member
Aug 5, 2018
5,971
If they did, why are they not telling the rest of the world in a global pandemic?

Because what they did (face masks, good hygiene, social distancing via bowing instead of shaking hands or generally being mindful of others) are just kinda ingrained in JP culture, so it's not like the populace did anything special from their PoV? Like, I'm staying in Tokyo and went into a restaurant today, there's hand sanitizer at the door, every single chef/waiter wears a face mask, the staff are very on top of keeping the place clean/sanitized, and most people coming in or going out wore a mask as well. This is normal for every restaurant I've visited in the past few weeks, and I'd say about 60% of the people I saw outside were wearing masks. I guarantee that stuff like that helps, but it's not like they kept it a secret that they act hygienic and wear masks to avoid infections, which has helped to reduce the spread.

On the flip side, there's a significant portion of the Western world that literally don't wash their hands after using the bathroom, which is especially relevant since the two likely areas for airborne coronavirus is near toilets, and in hospitals. You have a sizable asshat population who seem to get off on defying government recommendations, not to mention governments themselves not treating the virus seriously until it's too late. The JP population generally not having the kind of people that call viruses a hoax/downplaying them or literally create stuff like the "coronavirus challenge" does a lot to limit the spread.
 
Last edited:

Sloane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,244
Thanks. I'm afraid my German is bad.....How did they see the scenario play out?
Hard to summarize but they were pretty much spot on with their general predictions regarding the start of the outbreak so far.

Using a 10% death rate and a 3 year time frame until a vaccine is found as well as assuming a "lockdown" (more or less) lasting for a year, they calculated three major waves, at least 7,5 million people dead in Germany, and 6 million people infected at the peak of the first wave. Major impact on the economy, some impact on supply chains, little to no impact on electricity, water, banks, gas etc. Riots and looted shops / pharmacies possible but no hard data / predictions there.

Number of infected and dead would obviously be way different if the death rate actually turns out to be at ~0,5% and time-to-vaccine can be reduced to 18 months or less.

Can someone explain me why Germany has so few recoveries ~100.
Still early and recoveries aren't being officially counted, I believe.
 

HMD

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,300
Just got an internal email that confirms one of my colleagues has the virus, I have been sick and coughing for a few days. Hoping for the best.
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
4,576
Hard to summarize but they were pretty much spot on with their general predictions regarding the start of the outbreak so far.

Using a 10% death rate and a 3 year time frame until a vaccine is found as well as assuming a "lockdown" (more or less) lasting for a year, they calculated three major waves, at least 7,5 million people dead in Germany, and 6 million people infected at the peak of the first wave. Major impact on the economy, some impact on supply chains, little to no impact on electricity, water, banks, gas etc. Riots and looted shops / pharmacies possible but no hard data / predictions there.

Number of infected and dead would obviously be way different if the death rate actually turns out to be at ~0,5% and time-to-vaccine can be reduced to 18 months or less.

Thanks. Very interesting (but scary figures).
 

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,879
Netherlands
I'm in the discussion on Reddit about the virus in Holland and I said let's hope once summer comes it will calm down a little. I got one response

"From the evidence so far, the virus can be transmitted in all areas, including areas with hot and humid weather."

The person got that from a site called The Who and this was under Myth Busters. I don't like that.
It can be transmitted everywhere, you can tell from the fact that there are also outbreaks in Singapore and Spain, both of which have 20+ degree weather. Both heat and humidity do seem to lower the transmission rate by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points. Which still doesnt make it much lower than 2.
 

.exe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,241
Can someone explain me why Germany has so few recoveries ~100.

I don't know about Germany, but here in the Netherlands part of it has to do with the local health authorities not mandating that people report their recovery. So it's like people just calling in voluntarily. Doesn't mean that everyone who isn't accounted for in the deaths is still ill.
 

Kikujiro

Member
Oct 27, 2017
906
Japan closed their schools and cancelled big events a month before Europe/ the US. Way back when Trump was calling it a big hoax and European leaders were telling us that "the virus doesn't respect borders and so we aren't closing them" (how's that working out?). Do you remember that stage?, it was a couple of weeks ago. Maybe that was the time for action, who knows?

If Japan was as much of a shitshow as Europe or the USA in terms of infections we'd know quickly enough when the hospitals start overflowing and people are dying by the hundreds of the same thing, good luck hiding numbers like that. Have we seen this? Nope. This thing has been in Japan longer than Europe/USA so where are the deaths and overwhelmed IC units?

As hard as it might be for some to accept, maybe they did something we didn't and it had an effect?

Closing schools and banning events don't mean anything if people go out. We have people in Japan that told us how parks were full of children, and streets and trains were full like always, there's no social distancing at all. It was the same in Italy, they closed schools, universities, theater and all, but people were still going everywhere, so they had to do a lockdown.
People are doubting Japan numbers because they are doing so little testing while they could do much more (the US is doing little testing because they fucked up and didn't even have enough test kits).
I understand that masks and good hygiene are an important factor, but I don't think that's just what it takes to stop the spread of such a contagious virus.
 

BasilZero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,346
Omni
I've been checking in daily for TP at my local supermarket. No dice. (Netherlands)

9289e82af839fe22b28a1b350f4812fb85e6aa0e_hq.gif


Two rolls left. Dawn of the final week.

Omg 😂
 

Firemind

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,543
It's really frustrating how our government(Netherlands) doesn't seem to take the situation as serious as other countries around us.
Italy closed schools nationwide on March 4th, 33 days after the first confirmed case in the country (Jan 31st).

The Netherlands closed schools nationwide on March 16th, 18 days after the first confirmed case in the country (February 27th).

The Italian government ordered restaurants and bars to close just 8 days ago. The French and Spanish governments closed restaurants and bars 5 days ago.
 

Detective Pidgey

Alt Account
Banned
Jun 4, 2019
6,255
It can be transmitted everywhere, you can tell from the fact that there are also outbreaks in Singapore and Spain, both of which have 20+ degree weather. Both heat and humidity do seem to lower the transmission rate by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points. Which still doesnt make it much lower than 2.

Damn, that's not promising at all. Truly wonder what's going to happen in the coming weeks, months, the uncertainty is what is so bad about it amongst other things. I mean some people can work at home but what about the jobs that just can't be done at home?
 

darkwing

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,970
It can be transmitted everywhere, you can tell from the fact that there are also outbreaks in Singapore and Spain, both of which have 20+ degree weather. Both heat and humidity do seem to lower the transmission rate by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points. Which still doesnt make it much lower than 2.

we have cases here in the Philippines and we are in summer with 32 to 35 degrees Celsius
 

Naru

Member
May 11, 2019
2,373
If you look at traffic in Berlin, it's quite a bit down today, not so much in Saxony. Dresden and Leipzig are bussy as usual. The "soft lockdown" of non essential shops etc. is in effect since midnight.
 

grmlin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,293
Germany
If you look at traffic in Berlin, it's quite a bit down today, not so much in Saxony. Dresden and Leipzig are bussy as usual. The "soft lockdown" is in effect since midnight.
People are stupid, really. Don't they listen to the radio, don't they watch TV... friends, WhatsApp, whatever. I don't understand how one can be so ignorant and just think "fuck it, I have some free time. Let's enjoy"
 

nampad

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,238
All these news about celebrities and politicians testing positive and here in Germany you can't even go to the doctor.

Just called mine today because I am feeling off with coughs and headache. They just told me to stay home and will send me a sick note. They also said that "nobody is getting tested anymore" so they can't really do anything except when you have severe symptoms.

Well, I am not complaining because it is an emergency situation but it feels like a two class system when politicians and other celebrities with mild symptoms get tested.
 

Serious Sam

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,354
Damn, that's not promising at all. Truly wonder what's going to happen in the coming weeks, months, the uncertainty is what is so bad about it amongst other things. I mean some people can work at home but what about the jobs that just can't be done at home?
We need to up our hygiene game. I'm pretty sure most common form of virus transfer is coming from infected people simply breathing/talking/yawning. So everyone gotta start wearing face masks at work and in public places, hand sanitizers everywhere, frequently touched surfaces being sanitized constantly, etc.

This can be controlled, but we desperately need widespread mask usage and hand sanitizers everywhere. Maybe even pocket sanitizer spray where you "clean after yourself". You touched a door handle or pressed an elevator button? You spray sanitizer on these places afterwards.
 

darkwing

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,970
Italy closed schools nationwide on March 4th, 33 days after the first confirmed case in the country (Jan 31st).

The Netherlands closed schools nationwide on March 16th, 18 days after the first confirmed case in the country (February 27th).

The Italian government ordered restaurants and bars to close just 8 days ago. The French and Spanish governments closed restaurants and bars 5 days ago.

sobering to think that they could have followed countries like South Korea, China etc..

how about the US? when was the first case?
 

Sir Hound

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,205
The toilet paper thing continues to baffle. I could get literally anything in NL this morning, but not that.
 

Bedlam

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
4,536
If you look at traffic in Berlin, it's quite a bit down today, not so much in Saxony. Dresden and Leipzig are bussy as usual. The "soft lockdown" of non essential shops etc. is in effect since midnight.
Dresden here. Can confirm. From my window overlooking a pretty central street, it almost looks like any other day out there. Last night I went across the Elbe river on bike having done some last errands before shop closure, and there were hundreds of people sitting in the grass next to the river in groups of 5-10 people. The youth seems to really enjoy their time off from school.

I mean wtf?

Just bring on the lockdown already. There are too many ignorant people out there.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,999
There was a lot of discussion over night about potential treatments and I feel like this continuous quote of any article that says anything about this and that drug that might work against COVID-19 without a clear official treatment will soon become counterproductive. I understand the need for hope, but do we really want some people to start self-medicating against this? Because you know that's what's going to happen. It will spread like that info about Ibuprofen which is still not scientifically proven.
 

Scoey

Member
Oct 27, 2017
230
Closing schools and banning events don't mean anything if people go out. We have people in Japan that told us how parks were full of children, and streets and trains were full like always, there's no social distancing at all. It was the same in Italy, they closed schools, universities, theater and all, but people were still going everywhere, so they had to do a lockdown.
People are doubting Japan numbers because they are doing so little testing while they could do much more (the US is doing little testing because they fucked up and didn't even have enough test kits).
I understand that masks and good hygiene are an important factor, but I don't think that's just what it takes to stop the spread of such a contagious virus.

Italy had to do a lockdown because they had a huge number of cases that quickly overwhelmed their hospitals. Japan hasn't had that, despite being beside China and having large scale inbound tourism from China. That fact alone is proof that something they did worked, unless you're into conspiracy theories.

If Trump hadn't been calling the virus a hoax a month ago when Japan were closing schools and theme parks and stopping concerts, maybe people in the USA could be going about their lives a bit more freely now too?

I guess we'll have to wait and see. My suspicion is the actual number of infections is higher than the official stats just like everywhere else but there isn't a cover up of hundreds/thousands of dead people. We'll see I suppose.
 

Bigjig

Member
Jun 4, 2018
1,212
Closing schools and banning events don't mean anything if people go out. We have people in Japan that told us how parks were full of children, and streets and trains were full like always, there's no social distancing at all. It was the same in Italy, they closed schools, universities, theater and all, but people were still going everywhere, so they had to do a lockdown.
People are doubting Japan numbers because they are doing so little testing while they could do much more (the US is doing little testing because they fucked up and didn't even have enough test kits).
I understand that masks and good hygiene are an important factor, but I don't think that's just what it takes to stop the spread of such a contagious virus.

So why do you think their hospitals aren't being overrun? They don't exactly have a young population
 

Mercurial

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
985
Help me Era.

My wife is insistent on asking her mother to come and stay with us throughout this situation (which could be months on end!)... her mother is 65 years old, taking meds for high blood pressure, recently returned from holiday to Canary Islands (2 weeks ago). Her husband passed away from cancer 2 years ago, and her dog had to be put down last month, so now she lives completely alone and understandably is pretty down/upset/worried...

From our side, we live 2.5 hours drive away, have 2 young kids (1 and 3 years old), my wife is a school teacher so her involvement in work over the next few months is unclear, I luckily WFH full time as a software dev.

My head is saying this is completely irresponsible, goes against the gov recommendations and will ultimately endanger both her (as she is approaching the very dangerous age range) and us (even though we are relatively young at 38/39, it is still a risk).

I have talked this over with my wife on 3 separate occasions this week and made my thoughts perfectly clear, but she just can't seem to see my point of view and is (understandably) worried about her mother being alone for the next months and said she wants to call and ask her down to stay asap.

What do I do?

EDIT - we are in the UK.

I believe that your mother in law should be moved in with you after a quarantine of two weeks.

A 5-hour round trip is sufficiently extreme that you're not going to be able to help her with her day to day needs or, if the worst happens, support her if she gets sick. Worrying about her being alone is understandable but the real risk is that she gets lonely, doesn't have the supplies that she needs, and goes out in public to break her isolation. If she contracts the disease and doesn't contact you until she's developed a pneumonia, there will be little anyone can do to help her survive.

There are risks to both approaches but the risk with the most variables that you can influence is to have her move in, ensure that her health is monitored, ensure that she's got the food/medicine she needs, and do everything you can in your home to reduce the risk as much as possible.
 

Numberfox

Member
Aug 5, 2018
5,971
I understand that masks and good hygiene are an important factor, but I don't think that's just what it takes to stop the spread of such a contagious virus.

I think the masks and hygiene are the most important factor when it comes to a coronavirus carrier spreading it to others, especially the ones with mild cases or are completely asymptomatic. Based off this article, most infections are through non-airborne sources like mucus from sneezing or coughing, and the airborne variant is less common in real world scenarios, mainly limited to toilets and hospitals. There was a case of a coronavirus patient not spreading it to their household members, which wouldn't be possible if it was a primarily airborne infection. Having a mask means a carrier is significantly less likely to spread the non-airborne variant through their own coughs or sneezes since the mask catches most of it, and the masks worn by others will protect them. The good hygiene means any residue in public areas is properly dealt with.

Hokkaido was the place that was hit the hardest, and was properly locked down. The footage we see of people not social distancing aren't from that area, since it potentially hasn't spread that far, which is why people are mostly out and about in these places. If the populated areas have calls for a proper lockdown from the government, the citizens would do so, which is evidently not the case in places like the US.

Another aspect with the low testing is a matter of having enough beds to care for the truly critical. In Italy, if you have a mild case and get tested positive, you're quarantined and given a bed that could have gone to a more severe patient. Japan's reasoning is that even if someone has a mild case or is asymptomatic, the average Japanese person can successfully limit their own spread of the virus through masks and good hygiene, which allows the hospitals to dedicate full attention to the critical patients. Obviously this can all go wrong if the infected folks aren't being hygienic, but the fact that the majority of Japanese citizens are hygienic and wear masks may legitimately be why Japan hasn't had major death tolls yet.
 

iyox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
360
why so late to move, they have the CDC for goodness sake

the CDC in Contagion was so good

The president was too busy worrying about the short term impact on the stock market and claiming it was a Democratic hoax. He will eventually circle around and blame being distracted by the impeachment and anything else that is politically expedient.
 

EloKa

GSP
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,906
Can someone explain me why Germany has so few recoveries ~100.
To be counted as recovered in germany you need to have a) no symptoms anymore and b) get tested negative twice with a 24 hour delay.
My guess is that we aren't "wasting" two testkits on persons that had only mild symptoms and were forced to quarantine at home. This would lead to many infected but only few recovered cases in the books while in reality many more have already recovered.
 

Kenzodielocke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,851
To be counted as recovered in germany you need to have a) no symptoms anymore and b) get tested negative twice with a 24 hour delay.
My guess is that we aren't "wasting" two testkits on persons that had only mild symptoms and were forced to quarantine at home which would lead to many infected but few recovered cases.
Makes sense, makes the start worthless though.
 

Eggiem

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,781
Now I know why the death rate is so low in Germany. Prof. Dr. Drosten (virologist BerlinCharite) said in the last NDRinfo Podcast that Germany has a high rate of ventilators and very skilled doctors in this field.