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Best of luck. Even if it turns out to be something else, getting that sick is awful.
Isn't that 12-18 month time frame floating around from the Imperial College model? Because that's what these articles keep citing.
But then there was an article earlier in this thread saying the model was flawed.
This link: https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions
But then there was an article earlier in this thread saying the model was flawed.
This link: https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions
I believe this is regurgitating material that's been going around earlier last week. The study concluded particles coming out of a nebulous right are viable for 3 hours which is not equal to someone sneezing or coughing and haimving it be viable for 3 hours.
What are the chances there was a mortality section in that report?
It's a big deal because it's highly contagious, therefore it will undoubtedly spread to a huge number of at risk people (mainly elderly) whom don't have good chances of surviving. Then you overwhelm the hospitals and turn people away with other serious medical problems. This isn't even touching on economic and supply chain impact.
My kid's pediatrician is converting to a new schedule for the next few weeks (and presumably longer). Only two-week, one month, and two month exams will be conducted, in the first few office hours of the day. The rest of the day will be for sick patients, by appt. only. Only one person can accompany the child to the appts., and you have to check in by phone while staying in your car or outside.
I'm not sure even urgent care would be able to offer exams for children during this time, we'll have to see. Kids having to go months or over a year without regular yearly physicals, vision, and dental appointments is potentially yet another side effect of having to focus on flattening the curve and keeping it flat over a period of months.
I'm not sure even urgent care would be able to offer exams for children during this time, we'll have to see. Kids having to go months or over a year without regular yearly physicals, vision, and dental appointments is potentially yet another side effect of having to focus on flattening the curve and keeping it flat over a period of months.
If you are curious what day 1 of e-learning meant to teachers here is a video. Our district already has school from home for high schoolers, this is the first attempt to use it at middle school and below.
The model was flawed according to peer review because it doesn't consider aggressive method which is...
1. Aggressive contact tracing and quarantine to remove potential infectious source before symptoms appear
2. Aggressive door to door monitoring and testing to find out hidden patient
The report was posted earlier chances are you will regret looking at it.
There's really no reason to assume this. Something like 80,000 people have recovered from the disease and there are only a handful of cases of supposed reinfections. It's waaaaay more likely that they were simply discharged based on incorrect tests or that it wasn't fully cured and reemerged in those cases. Every other coronavirus works on a flulike immunity system.
I'll be curious to hear which is the bigger seller. Tempted to drive into the city and hit up some of our breweries for crowlers to keep them going, but I know that's not a great idea. I wish they could have it delivered but I'm pretty sure that's against the law.
Get the test to confirm. I've had weird symptoms but no one will allow me to get a test because I'm not having extreme health state. It's good for you to confirm that you've had it, in your case.
President Trump was pretty serious and solemn earlier today when speaking and said many people will likely die. He has absolute heard some shit in the last few days. It's pretty fucking obvious.
Given that people don't read the article behind the title we should probably think 2 times before posting.
It's on a very specific case, that affect a small percentage of medical professional that are already taking precaution.
99.99% uf us don't go anywhere close to a place that satisfy the condition in the article.
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My grandfather passed away last week. We've had to cancel all visitation and funeral plans. 2 of his children won't be there to bury him. My parents, my aunt and her husband, and myself are the only ones who will be able to pay our respects.
Meanwhile, my boss keeps denying the requests to work from home as 55 more people were diagnosed today and the first person in the state (IL) died.
It's been complete cognitive dissonance.
Meanwhile, my boss keeps denying the requests to work from home as 55 more people were diagnosed today and the first person in the state (IL) died.
It's been complete cognitive dissonance.
Our trajectory is definitely looking much worse than Italy's:
You can't compare the United States and Italy. They're not 1-to-1 in terms of size or population. You need to compare by region/state.
The US is far behind on testing as well making comparisons with any country very difficult.
I really just don't want the idea that the US's trajectory being worse than Italy being spread around because it's not necessarily true.
isnt the problem we dont know b/c of lack of testing? all that being said our younger population will help a bit.
It's a problem for sure with lack of testing. We're just starting to get drive through tests rolled out.
hell even mitt romaney was pushing for it a few days ago. you dont need a econ degree at this point we are diving head first in to a depression.
I don't know about that. Sounds like a bad excuse to try to make it seem like we don't have enough test.
Do we know which countries WHO sent it to? I feel like they definitely sent some to China which is definitely not impoverished. South Korea probably got a few kits too but I wouldn't say they're impoverished either
the artcle confirms china, hong kong, and south korea all developed their own kits.
I gotta be honest with you, as a single man living in an apartment, I don't think I can make it "18 months" without seeing my friends or family in person.
I think the review is wrong to conclude the original report did not consider these. The original report states this:
Because they started testing when no WHO kit was available (plus WHO could have sources one of their kits)
Remember that when virus spread to those places it was the new frontier.
If you can build your own and you think you can get better logistic compared to the available option, it's ok.
But meanwhile you should do enough test with what is available, plus don't fuck up your own kit.
We aren't selling sanitizer, just giving it away to those that need it.
Then the US fucked up bad, real bad. The fact we had so many defective tests is astounding. Sucks that we cant buy some of the WHO tests but in glad there are states independently testing it since the CDC isn't willing to act
(that number goes to 2m)
The US needs to go into lockdown for 2-3 weeks, use this time to work overtime to catch up and find all cases, quarantine these people and their families, and continue for at least two months with social distancing.
This seems to be the study that the US government is now looking to. Like I've said before, "flatten the curve" is a terrible idea and suppression and containment within the US seems to work out better and faster than I even hoped.
We won't end up totally isolated. I live alone as well and do understand your concern.
It can't come down to total isolation. The cost to mental health would end up being enormous.
the part that he highlights, which is worrisome and possible to me, is how successful suppression will or could lead to people letting their guard down, to the people who claimed this is all a hoax feeling vindicated, causing everything to be undone again in the fall.
Full lockdown doesn't mean you can't go visit a friend or family. But you definitely better check up with them and how they are feeling first, and not gather with more than 10 people.
good luck, people need to get food, maintain infrastructure ect. china could pull it off in wuhan with the help of deliver companies to dilivers food ect to everyone in isolation. amazon is big, but not that big.
I feel like we will resort to lockdown waves, which isn't really reflected in that article. Theres no way we will be in a full lockdown come June. I think there will be a gradual lifting in the summer only for us to do it all over again in the fall, hopefully by winter treatment is widely available (also not discussed in that article).
Just think of the crazy shit that's gonna be on YouTube and tiktok from people climbing the walls due to self isolation.
Also if you want to visit friends and fam you should be able to barring a China grade lockdown. Might be a good idea to make sure no one is running a fever before visiting though. Yes I know asymptomatic carriers are a potentiality but what else can you do short of having your own test kits on hand.
Also if you want to visit friends and fam you should be able to barring a China grade lockdown. Might be a good idea to make sure no one is running a fever before visiting though. Yes I know asymptomatic carriers are a potentiality but what else can you do short of having your own test kits on hand.
They did. They set up monitoring stations and took temperature readings before letting people in. The problem in the US at least is our fierce independence mentality is not that great when it comes to public health crises. Doubt this would even be possible in a lot of places, but epicenters might be the most important place to do this after an initial 14 day period.
Are you assuming it won't spread during the summer months? Seems like it's spreading just fine in Australia where it's late summer.
Is the US even remotely close to suppression state like the Imperial College report suggests?
Yeah, this is what I'm hoping. Thankfully we're all staying in touch through various technology, but nothing compares to the real thing.
For sure. I'm just scared to even visit my parents since they're in their 60s.
"Flatten the curve" is easier to explain to people, which is why governors are doing that, even though the actual methods employed may be more on the suppression side.
from what we know it doesn't like Dry heat, so it would spread more depending on your climate.
God, waiting to hear back about getting tested sucks. I'm in bed for the night and I need to prop myself up with a shitload of pillows so I can breathe properly. Standing and sitting I'm fine but laying flat I keep wheezing and coughing nonstop.
I contacted my doctor today and he said I should hear from the DoH about scheduling a test by the end of Wednesday. I'm trying to be patient because I know there's plenty of people who need help more urgently than me but it's fucking scary.
I contacted my doctor today and he said I should hear from the DoH about scheduling a test by the end of Wednesday. I'm trying to be patient because I know there's plenty of people who need help more urgently than me but it's fucking scary.
