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Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

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MegaRockEXE

MegaRockEXE

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,945
At work, they're implementing a work from home policy that rolls out in waves for those who want to and can or need to. We tested some video conferencing options today too.

Also, Orangetheory is closing all their studios due to the pandemic, so that sucks. It had to be done though after LA ordered all gyms close, so I knew it was coming.
 
CampFreddie

CampFreddie

A King's Landing
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,952
The modelling being used by the UK government for policy making has been published here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

It is not pretty, but the modelling methods seem sensible. Main recommendation is for disruptive interventions (self quarantine, social distancing and school shutdowns) to be used in phases triggered on and off by rises in demand for hospital beds. This lasts until a vaccine is developed and will be in place for about 60-70% of the time.
They did not model a total lockdown.
The idea is that you can't maintain lockdowns of disruptive interventions for long, and it returns after lockdowns are lifted. So instead, you intervene when cases begin to rise and lift when they drop. This keeps the health system working and casualties low.
But it's based on some uncertain assumptions about the effectiveness of each measure. It's not quite "numbers pulled from my arse", but no one really knows what the effectiveness of these measures is or how many people will ignore them
However, the modelled inputs were designed to assume a relatively low effectiveness of each measure and relatively high degree of quarrantine-breaking.

Do nothing is and Speedrun for herd immunity is 550,000 deaths...
But that did not model the collapse of the health system and assumes we build and train 30 times or current ICU capacity to cope - within 3 months.

The model suggests we can reduce deaths to 20 or 30 thousand if we keep intermittently crushing the growth curve with targeted interventions, and we would just about be within our ICU capacity.
The trigger for these measures would be 200 COVID patients in ICU, which I expect we are very close to hitting.

They also modelled the USA, but it's mostly in an appendix that I haven't read yet. I think the conclusions are similar to the UK. USA is only slightly protected by it's lower population density and larger distances that reduce travel.
 
dedhead54

dedhead54

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,972
HylianSeven said:
The toilet paper situation is fucked in the US. I tried 5 different stores today and all of them sold out. Utterly ridiculous hoarding.

In before "get a bidet", I already ordered one and it won't be here until Wednesday...at least that's what Amazon says right now.
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I had to run in to Staples today to get something for work and passed a woman on her way out who had a cart completely full, overflowing even, of bottled water and paper towels. I said "what the fuck?" pretty loudly as I passed her because it just blew my mind. Inside they were wiped out of TP, and only had a couple packs of bottled water and paper towels left.
 
Doc Holliday

Doc Holliday

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,806
One of our friends is a doctor and she's pleading with every one on Facebook to take this seriously. She sounded desperate, she's in ny.
 
Zombegoast

Zombegoast

Member
Oct 30, 2017
14,223
I'm at work at Polynesian Resort Florida. Saw inside the restaurant and noticed a lot less guests eating but still a lot for a pandemic.
 
Barzul

Barzul

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,965
HylianSeven said:
The toilet paper situation is fucked in the US. I tried 5 different stores today and all of them sold out. Utterly ridiculous hoarding.

In before "get a bidet", I already ordered one and it won't be here until Wednesday...at least that's what Amazon says right now.
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Did you try Amazon? I just got a 24 roll box delivered to me so they clearly have some. I use subscribe and save so was a bit worried my latest shipment wouldn't show up sure enough it did.
 
CelestialAtom

CelestialAtom

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,037
Poetic Injustice said:


This is the situation inside one of Italy's hospitals, not a single coronavirus patient has recovered.

This is insane.
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What a devastating situation to be a part of. I just couldn't imagine what those nurses experience with not only physical exhaustion, but the mental aspects, too, alongside the depression that flourishes from trying to help so many and not being able to stop what the virus is doing to those people. :(
 
darkwing

darkwing

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,947
CampFreddie said:
The modelling being used by the UK government for policy making has been published here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

It is not pretty, but the modelling methods seem sensible. Main recommendation is for disruptive interventions (self quarantine, social distancing and school shutdowns) to be used in phases triggered on and off by rises in demand for hospital beds. This lasts until a vaccine is developed and will be in place for about 60-70% of the time.
They did not model a total lockdown.
The idea is that you can't maintain lockdowns of disruptive interventions for long, and it returns after lockdowns are lifted. So instead, you intervene when cases begin to rise and lift when they drop. This keeps the health system working and casualties low.
But it's based on some uncertain assumptions about the effectiveness of each measure. It's not quite "numbers pulled from my arse", but no one really knows what the effectiveness of these measures is or how many people will ignore them
However, the modelled inputs were designed to assume a relatively low effectiveness of each measure and relatively high degree of quarrantine-breaking.

Do nothing is and Speedrun for herd immunity is 550,000 deaths...
But that did not model the collapse of the health system and assumes we build and train 30 times or current ICU capacity to cope - within 3 months.

The model suggests we can reduce deaths to 20 or 30 thousand if we keep intermittently crushing the growth curve with targeted interventions, and we would just about be within our ICU capacity.
The trigger for these measures would be 200 COVID patients in ICU, which I expect we are very close to hitting.

They also modelled the USA, but it's mostly in an appendix that I haven't read yet. I think the conclusions are similar to the UK. USA is only slightly protected by it's lower population density and larger distances that reduce travel.
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is the UK even doing this?

disruptive interventions (self quarantine, social distancing and school shutdowns
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we build and train 30 times or current ICU capacity to cope - within 3 months.
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silverhick

silverhick

Member
Oct 25, 2017
136
UltraMagnus said:
What is really needed is

1.) A test that can be done in 10 minutes, no laboratory. There are blood prick tests apparently in development that can do this, but they're about 90% accurate I think. Better than nothing, but they need to get it even better than that.

2.) Is cheap and can be mass produced in hundreds of millions rapidly.
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Get ahold of Elizabeth Holmes.
 
carlsojo

carlsojo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
33,753
San Francisco
Templeusox said:
An answer to my own question:
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I was curious about Alaska in particular and they're certainly not doing nothing:
www.adn.com

Coronavirus-related cancellations and closures sweep across Alaska

The decisions are all part of an effort to slow the spread of the new coronavirus, which causes a disease known as COVID-19.
www.adn.com www.adn.com

They're moving in the right direction at least. They're in a pretty good position since they only have one case and they're fairly isolated.
 
Iolo

Iolo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,896
Britain
jml said:
I'm really pissed off at Gov. Pritzker here in Illinois who keeps saying we have to have the elections tomorrow & insists it's safe. I'm immunocompromised as hell so I'm just not gonna be voting I guess.
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As an immunocompromised person, you should have gotten a mail-in ballot, it was possible to do this as late as Thursday and takes 5 minutes online. It may not even be legal to move the primary (see Ohio) and things could be even worse later this year.

Lesson: vote early.
 
Hadok

Hadok

Member
Feb 14, 2018
5,793
CampFreddie said:
The modelling being used by the UK government for policy making has been published here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
It is not pretty, but the modelling methods seem sensible.
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"The professor's concern over the UK's strategy focuses on what he says is one vital error that the government's Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty has made.

He added: "Chris Whitty said there is 20% herd immunity in Wuhan and someone he works with says it's probably 5%. I reckon it's 1-2% at most. 20% is just so out of the ballpark, it's wrong.

"Herd immunity had nothing to do with stopping this epidemic, that's clear."
"
 

Deleted member 3017

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,653
I have an 8:30 AM appointment with a body shop tomorrow to fix damage in my car's passenger door. The car is perfectly safe to drive otherwise, so I'm wondering if I should postpone this appointment for a month or two. The repairs could take up to eight days to complete and I'm worried if we go on lockdown in the US, my car will be stuck there. I'm assuming a repair shop wouldn't be considered an essential business and would close its doors.

This sucks!!!
 
overcast

overcast

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,404
OrbitalBeard said:
I have an 8:30 AM appointment with a body shop tomorrow to fix a big dent in my car's passenger door. The car is perfectly functional, so I'm wondering if I should postpone this appointment for a month or two. The repairs could take up to eight days to complete and I'm worried if we go on lockdown in the US, my car will be stuck there.

This sucks!!!
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Oof. Probably delay. That's too risky and if it's 8 days I imagine a lot will change
 
B.O.O.M.

B.O.O.M.

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,755
UW La Crosse just went full online for the rest of the semester. Good call. I'm guessing this is gonna be a common thing today across the Wisconsin system
 
Diarrhea Day-Lewis

Diarrhea Day-Lewis

Member
Oct 27, 2017
20,755
Hadok said:
"The professor's concern over the UK's strategy focuses on what he says is one vital error that the government's Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty has made.

He added: "Chris Whitty said there is 20% herd immunity in Wuhan and someone he works with says it's probably 5%. I reckon it's 1-2% at most. 20% is just so out of the ballpark, it's wrong.

"Herd immunity had nothing to do with stopping this epidemic, that's clear."
"
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Err what do they mean by herd community?
 
Crazyorloco

Crazyorloco

Member
Dec 12, 2017
1,260
Samiya said:
some real dystopian shit. A week ago everything was fine (for me) and now I'm thinking that the US won't exist in 2-3 months. Why exactly are people buying guns?
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More commercial looting has already started (I use the citizen app to find things happening in NYC), I'm guessing as soon as we have less food and essential items we'll see more crime. It's also just fear - we're going through some uncertain times. People want to defend themselves.

I can't wait till everything is better.
 
Nude_Tayne

Nude_Tayne

Member
Jan 8, 2018
3,666
earth
Dyle said:
You must not have lived here long, the Tavern League is by far the most powerful political entity in the state besides the two political parties, and easily the most powerful state business lobbying group in the country. It's mostly their fault we won't go further, but if state gop leaders were willing to do the right thing over the tavern league's interests, they could be overruled.

Unfortunately Evers is kind of stuck because he is going to need gop support to get any kind of relief bill in place through emergency Assembly and Senate sessions later this year. So it's either enforce shutdowns now and risk losing the opportunity to provide economic relief down the line or delay shutdowns and get a stimulus bill. I'm not sure he's making the right call, but there is some logic behind it
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Figures.

Coronavirus may be a pandemic, but Republicans are a plague.

Anyway, I know some immunocompromised people who could die from this virus, so I know what the right call is.
 
powersurge

powersurge

Member
Nov 2, 2017
925
Pensacola, FL
Mekanos said:
Quitting my job. Can't work at home but I don't care. Nobody is following procedure, people standing around talking to each other, walking behind my chair to talk to someone else, etc. This shit sends my anxiety into overdrive. Could send an e-mail to my boss saying "hey can we make people follow procedure" but there's literally no time and I think the office will be closed down by the end of the week. This is only my third week so whatever. Maybe I can find a job I can do online. Locking down now.
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Don't quit. Make em fire/lay you off. Then you can draw unemployment.
 
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